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Thursday, October 24, 2013

Jim O'Neill tonight on BNN


Here's Jim O'Neill on BNN, now retired and spending his days down at 't pub in Manchester, wearing a flat 'at, drinking with Mark E. Smith and Peter Hook:

part 1
part 2
part 3

In part one, he notes that if the EMs want to "become adults and be treated as such", they have to fix their economies so that they're no longer so dependent on easy, lazy American investment. Because the days of low EM interest rates are over.

He also agrees with me entirely on India, that they could fix their problems overnight simply if they stopped pissing off foreign capital. And, by the way, Narendra Modi will do just that, and then the downward pressure on gold demand will end, and that'll be great for gold, so watch for the May 2014 elections.

And, as others have noted, it'll be a red herring if Whitey freaks out over a BJP minority win with regional parties holding the balance of power. India's had that before and governance turned out fine.

In part 2, he outright mocks the people who expect a low China growth rate. Don't expect below 7%. And he thinks a "China credit event" is a silly idea too.

Also, he brings up the idea of "new China versus old China" - he says stay away from the old, large industries like state-owned and commodities; you want the "new" China, which is consumer-focused and tech-centred. Essentially, he says his China strategy is "short Caterpillar long Samsung".

Which is nice, that justifies my interest in QQQC.

And in part III, it's more of the same. The last 2 minutes are some short comments on Brazil.

Watch the entire interview. It's great to see a BNN host who recognizes that a smart guy is talking, and lets him just continue talking.

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