Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Evening reading

Here's some more stuff and junk:

Calculated Risk - chemical activity barometer for October. This is bullish for the US economy.

Michael Shaoul - on the NFP release. Quote:
In the normal course of a year we would expect better data to be released during Q4, which has significant seasonal tailwinds helping the report. This time around we will have the distortion from the shutdown to contend with, making the October and November reports even more of a lottery than normal. Our advice would be to simply move on from today's report and assume nothing major has changed, with perhaps the most important effect being that the bond market may have bought itself a little more time.

Calculated Risk - construction spending increased in August. Old data, but it's still bullish for the US economy. Really, I don't see how someone can call this "the final parabolic move of the cyclical bull market". Quote:
To repeat a few key themes:

1) Private residential construction is usually the largest category for construction spending, and is now the largest category once again. Usually private residential construction leads the economy, so this is a good sign going forward.

2) Private non-residential construction spending usually lags the economy. There was some increase this time for a couple of years - mostly related to energy and power - but the key sectors of office, retail and hotels are still at very low levels. I expect private non-residential to start to increase.

3) Public construction spending increased in August and is now 4% above the low in April. It is possible that the drag from public construction spending is over. Public spending has declined to 2006 levels (not adjusted for inflation) and was a drag on the economy for 4 years. In real terms, public construction spending has declined to 2001 levels.

FT Alphaville - the kids are moving out. Which would mean an expected increase in household formation.

Sean Brodrick - look for a hidden boost in consumer spending. Cos gasoline is coming down.

Yle Uutiset or something - Finns make diabetes vaccine breakthrough. Yup, Type 1 diabetes is caused by a virus. Not diet and bullshit.

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