Monday, February 25, 2013

A quick headrush of news

At work, busy, here's the news:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - five signs the rally is on hold. Most scarily, defensives are leading and correlation is picking up.

Ritholtz - rug to be pulled out from the short bonds trade? Very clever thinking about what's the right direction to take your position.

FT Alphaville - The Chine PMI circus. Basically, nobody knows.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the stat I hate the most right now. The answer? Hedge funds most bullish on stocks since 2007. I always love when people say "Most X since Y", cos then I can pull up a chart. His post is also interesting because he notes GLD is at its lowest position level amongst hedge funds in four years.

BI - fund managers are shorting gold like crazy. Sounds like time for a faceripper, eh?

Oh, by the way - I bought a small position in JO, because apparently coffee is also at a very high short level.

JC Parets - gold from the top down. A chartie who doesn't care much about gold on how the charts look. I forwarded this to Jojo, and he replied something like "he should also take sentiment into account". - Marius Kloppers on how much he sucked. But he makes an mportant point on commodities:

"I think that we had China's demand hit a constrained supply system. And we saw prices escalate tremendously as the world couldn't respond," said Kloppers.
"I think over the next five years . . . we are going to see very strong demand from China, but we are going to move from growth rates in demand of 15%-20% demand to 2%-4% per year. That means suppliers will be able to respond to demand. And therefore you have to be low cost and you have to take into account that price is not going to help you there."

This is important, because it seems to support my suspicion that what's important is not absolute China demand increases, but how much that demand increase can race out beyond the ability of the miners to expand production. I doubt we'll get another 2010, basically.

Mineweb - Oceana Gold halts concentrate shipping over tax kerfuffle. Isn't BTO also Phillipines-exposed? I don't remember. Could that be a reason they're down too?

Mickey Fulp - a quick guide to finding free booze at PDAC. Well, not really... he just tells you it's there. Really useful, Mickey, thanks. However, his writeup does explain why he always looks hung over at his Sunday afternoon talks.

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