Monday, January 7, 2013

Two things from Otto

Haven't posted today, other things to do.

I should really get around to writing that review of John Kaiser's website, especially since it seems the entire retail goldbug community has quit their shitty newsletter writers and all signed up with him. Otherwise I can't explain the sudden interest in NGE, a stock with an interesting story and oh such a nice hydrogeology database, but otherwise still a big pile of dirt with zero gold.

But it's taking off, quite nicely, so what the hell.

Anyway, two things from Otto:

IKN - The cost of building a mine in Argentina, Goldcorp (GG) Cerro Negro edition. So... where is all that gold going to come from? Y'know, that gold that all of Asia is buying? Y'know, when it's impossible to build a new mine because of the batshit huge year-to-year cost creep?

And something he forwarded to me:

Katchum - gold supply on gold price. The fellow has nice charts, and actually understands the concept of supply and demand. However, I wouldn't read his other articles too closely, since he seems to follow the writings of Sprott, Bass, Schiff, Faber, Turk, Morgan - the entire clown-car of ZeroHedge pundits. But he does put up good charts.


  1. Clown car, lol.

    That fellow's chart shows 1/3 of gold supply is recycled and it's the fast growing part of supply. If your 2015 demand drop off thesis is real, dwindling mine supply won't matter. There will be no shortage of gold bag-holders desperate to "recycle" their gold into someone else's hands.

    My question is, was Sept 2011 the blow-off top or is there another one on the way? I tend to think it was, but the gold junkies who jump out at me from around every internet mining article corner like spooky street hustlers, keep a flicker of uncertainty about this alive in my mind. I suppose I should ignore them.

    1. Will the market be happy with zero new supply and all gold coming from recycling? Because supply destruction is already happening.

      I'm no "$5000 gold this year!" wackaloon, but I'm not concerned about gold ever dropping below $1200. I'd want to chart recycling growth versus world wealth creation first.