Thursday, January 31, 2013

Three things this evening.


FT Alphaville - China's two paths to urbanization. Brings up the scary balancing-act side to the China demographic rollover problem.

Bespoke - bullish sentiment back below 50%. That's good, or bad. I dunno. In any case, looking at that chart, it still means you can get another 100 points.

Mineweb - is the gold consolidation over? Y'know, I like Lawrence Williams, and he's apparently worked for a living in the past. But he does sow a bit of paranoia and doom with this one. Comex takedowns, German gold hypothecated by the Fed, and so on. But then again, how do you get a final blowoff top in gold without what he says coming to pass? And if there's no blowoff top, how does it go down from here?

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4 comments:

  1. Germany moving its bars from one hole in the ground to another is definitely going to have a huge impact on the price of gold because, um, ah, er, doh.

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    1. Aw, come on, cut him some slack. If it were to come out that the NY Fed really *has* leased out all Germany's gold to JP Morgan, who then sold it off, then it *is* bullish for gold.

      Most goldbug conspiracy theories are outright sci-fi fantasies, sure. But in this age of rehypothecation, unthinking corruption, and no rule of law for the big banks, I can certainly see this having actually happened. So I'm willing to approach the idea agnostically.

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    2. And remember, most goldbug conspiracy theorists make utterly no attempt whatsoever to say anything that can stand 2 minutes of research.

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  2. Searching for info on this that doesn't come from goldbug whackaloon doomers (GWD's) I discovered the following - http://www.cnbc.com/id/100384749/Why_Germany_Wants_Its_Gold_Back

    45% of German reserves are in New York. They plan to reduce this to 37% by 2020. They're taking a little less than 1/5 of their NY holding out in 7 years. This hardly strikes me as a big, earth-shaking deal.

    Yes they may eventually take it all out of all foreign locations. But I would suspect that the slowness is due to the Bundesbank negotiating this with the Fed, so the Fed can unwind any swaps or leases on the gold. I doubt it's ever left the vault, why would it? It's just more fuel for GWD dramatics that fires their fantasy lives.

    Fantasy is a big part of amateur econ 101 I'm learning. Note I'm not claiming I'm anything more than an amateur, but I'm trying to not be sucked in by utter b.s. every day like most of them.

    I do agree with you on the 2 minutes of research part! :^) Amateurs!

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