Thursday, January 31, 2013
So does it go up or down from here?
Status at present: gold stocks getting hammered, S&P 500 fighting it out at 1500 and within 4% of its pre-crash high.
If it's one thing that's obvious, it's that there's one hell of a lot of opinion going around out there as to which way those two markets go from here.
But it seems to me that every goldbug I read, as well as their fellow-travelers the Doomers, all agree that the S&P goes down from here.
That is enough to make me think they're wrong. Because the S&P hitting an all-time high invalidates the theoretical basis for goldbuggery, doesn't it?
It doesn't invalidate my thesis, but it invalidates theirs. They have an interest in ensuring their dream of catastrophic dystopia comes to pass. And so they'll hold tightly to the narrative, even more so when they're wrestling at the brink against a world where a black guy in the White House is a good thing.
No wonder the goldbuggers are always fondling their dicks over the latest doomy pronouncements by Faber, Cashin, El-Arian, (checking ZeroHedge for the latest hagiographies) Schiff, Casey, Singer, Rogoff, and Santelli (who?).
So from now on I'm going to ignore any and all goldbugger assertions about the S&P 500 and the broad US market.
As for the charts:
Yeah, everyone sees the triple top in the S&P500. (Though the S&P Equal Weight is at an all time high.) Everyone also sees the higher low triple-bottom in the GDX, can draw a line, and can see it within a hair of failing.