Friday, December 21, 2012

My one and only post on the USA gun thing

Here's how you solve your fucktard gun problem, America. I'll keep this short.

"A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed."

That's the reason given for why every American is supposedly allowed to have a gun. Several guns. Including assault weapons. And loads of ammo.

OK, fine.

"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed" seems to be predicated on "a well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state". That seems to be the argument for why Americans are supposed to have guns.

The 2nd Amendment doesn't seem to suggest, nor do I think would any reasonable person ever think that it suggests, that you can own a gun without responsibilities, or if you hate society, or if you are delusional.In fact, I might be wrong but from what I've heard, it's already accepted under law that you can't own a firearm if you fail a background check, or if you're a convicted felon. So it's already quite obvious that "the people" is not interpreted to mean "every person."

So here we go:


1. Make it law that every state has to establish its own militia. It has to be "well regulated", meaning it's not a bunch of white power queers out in the hill country; the "militia" I'm talking about is a state armed force under the command of the Governor.

That avoids the whole "I'm not serving that commie nigger in the White House wharrgarbl" argument from the State's rights loonies.

You don't like it being under the control of the governor? Fine - make every county have its own militia, under the command of the county commissioner or mayor or however the fuck they do things down there.

I can't stress this enough - from now on when I refer to "militia", I am not referring to a bunch of homoerotic queers from the Nazi party. I am referring to a proper civilian armed force with a command structure, military discipline, and everything.


2. Now, any person who wants to keep or bear arms has to first sign up with their local well-regulated militia.

Ain't that nice? Now you've signed up to actually keep law and order in your neighbourhood! You'll now have a justifiable reason to think you can use a gun to defend lives. After all, now you're not some self-glorifying nutbar in a panic room; you're a deputized member of a well-regulated militia, with a command structure and everything. You're really serving the people by bearing arms!

Also, by becoming a member of the State militia, you've volunteered to be called into mandatory service whenever there's a natural disaster, like a tornado, or a flood. You immediately get called up for a search party when some little kid or some hiker goes missing up in the hills. How Christian of you! And how patriotic!


3. This militia is either self-funded, or funded through State (or local) taxes.

I'd rather make the gun nuts pay for their own "militia", thus earning the privelege of possessing a firearm; but whatever.

If someone says "wharrgarbl taxation is theft", then fine! Make it a nice Libertarian militia, where funding comes through voluntary donations, and whatever they need to make up comes from the militia members themselves. They want a militia? Let them run a fucking bake sale.

You could probably save a shitload of money too, since this well-regulated militia could take over some of the passive functions of the police. Let the militia do the patrolling, keeping order, community outreach and being visible; limit police to actual crime investigation and arrests. Cops probably also have to continue traffic enforcement too. Now you're wasting less cop time on bullshit. And maybe need fewer actual cops.


4. Gun ownership by any one person is only at the discretion of a commanding officer - just like in the armed forces. Anyone illegally owning or possessing a firearm is dealt with harshly under State law.

What a great way to make sure only law-abiding people and sane people can possess firearms! After all, assuming what I said above that it's a well-regulated militia with a proper command structure ultimately reporting to the Governor, no sergeant is going to allow a firearm to be issued to some nutbar in his mom's basement, or some crazy kid in highschool who "doesn't fit in", or some doomer in a fortified log cabin prepping for the coming Joo World Order.

The CO who issues the weapons is thereafter responsible for how they get used. Just like he's responsible for all other behaviour of his underlings. Thus he is encouraged to make damn sure you understand the law and are not a fucktard.

Before anyone is issued a gun, they get fully trained by their militia. Muzzle control, how to shoot, safe storage, all the finer points of the law, and even fun police stuff like de-escalating conflict. Nobody gets a gun if they refuse to learn proper gun use. Militia members get their guns taken away if they violate the rules. Militia members get their guns taken away if they go batshit crazy.

Also, militia members get issued ammunition. You get as much ammo as you should reasonably be expected to need.


5. The "arms" are issued by the militia, not bought at gun shows.

The "right to keep and bear arms" doesn't seem to suggest that people have a right to buy whatever the fuck gun that they want. The arms should get issued out of the State militia's armoury. Look at that! You've just solved the problem of idiots with gun fetishes. And you make it harder for "bad guys" to get their hands on guns.

Let gun shows continue to operate, but limit them to collector's items.





The above system is completely consonant with the beliefs and goals of the less anarchist members of the pro-gun crowd.

a) You have a right to protect yourself, your family, and your neighbours with a weapon. If you join the militia and obey the rules.
b) Bad guys won't have the right to own guns, and have no access to guns because the militia controls all weapon distribution.
c) Nutbars can't get guns either, same reason.
d) Owners will properly store and protect all firearms - or else they get disarmed. Again making it more difficult for nutbars and bad guys to get guns.
e) You'll really have a country where anyone with a gun can legally intercede when they see a crime in progress. Cos he'll be a militia soldier.
f) With each state or county having its own militia, now it's even harder for the UN/commies/Satanic One World Government to conquer the USA. Yay!

At the same time:

i) It will work towards ensuring that all gun owners are responsible and sane.
ii) Legal gun ownership will be governed by a responsible command structure.
iii) Nobody need worry about the fruitcake Nazis in their little hillforts anymore.
iv) I think this might lead to fewer people being massacred.
v) Selfish and hateful people don't get guns. The gun owners are the ones who contribute positively to their communities.

What do you lose under this proposal?

- you no longer have the right to own guns if you're an anarchist, conspiracy theorist, race-warrior, or other fucktard who generally hates society.
- you have to actually follow rules in order to own a killing machine.
- the kind of killing machine you own is dependent on actual need, not on your desire to compensate for a tiny cock or the depth of your irrational fear of a nigger uprising.
- you no longer have the right to stock your own personal arsenal - you need to petition your CO to requisition one for you, and you can only do that if you have a real need.
- you no longer have a right to go on a killing spree.





So what the fuck is wrong with this proposal of mine?

Seriously.

I mean, beside the fact that it's politically impossible? Even with the NRA temporarily stunned into silence by the massacre of a bunch of 6-year-olds by a crazy kid who's mom was a doomer?


Special Yuletide video - Wardruna

Here's Wardruna, with some real Nordic yuletide music:



None of that sissy Christian shit... these guys' idea of a festive yule is to put their slain warlord's corpse on a boat with his slavegirls, then set it on fire.

Which also sounds fun to me, except a good waste of slavegirls.

Anyway, here it is, posted at the moment of the true winter solstice (not December 31st, which is an arbitrary Christian invention).

If the world is actually ending right about now, then this will also be good music for the apocalypse.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Another mayan apocalypse cartoon


Even better - Andy Maguire on King World News


Here, if you want another commiseration link, go listen to Andy Maguire on King World News.

We only have time for this short excerpt (huge font and multiple colours removed):

Today renowned silver market whistleblower Andrew Maguire spoke with King World News and said the physical silver market has now diverged to extremes. This is the second in a series of interviews with Maguire lifting the curtain on what is going on behind the scenes in the gold and silver war.

But first, here is what whistleblower Maguire had to say about what the commercial traders are up to: “Eric, I’m looking at the action on Thursday and what really strikes me is we’ve discussed the backwardation. Backwardation is clear evidence that both gold and silver futures are oversold. Essentially there are no willing sellers of physical to exchange for a cheaper, further-out-dated futures contract.”

Maguire continues:

“There is zero relationship between the fundamentals and the current status of the entire US-centric wash-and-rinse cycle which we are seeing right now in the paper market. We are seeing very large physical buying, and it’s based on that discounted fix we discussed.

The commercials and the bullion banks, they’ve been buying all that’s being capitulated by the jettisoning longs....

“They (commercials) are also absorbing a very large influx of new short interest which they’ve managed to drag into the market. I’m seeing a huge amount of fuel above the market for a rally, and I’m also seeing a very oversold market.”

Eric King: “Andrew, for the people out there that are in silver specifically, what are you seeing on the arbitrage?”

Maguire: “Silver at one point at the highs in Shanghai was trading at a $1.75 premium. That means a single contract was trading at an $8,694 premium to a Comex contract. That’s ludicrous. That really gives you a much better picture (of what’s going on in the physical market).

There are reasons why silver or gold may trade at a premium in Shanghai, but not to those kind of degrees. We’re now reaching extremes, the kind of extremes you rarely see. And the kind of extremes we saw, not even that high (in terms of premium), back in August when we bottomed.

Silver is migrating into a much more physical market and we are seeing very few participants wanting to play in this rigged futures market any more. What I am certain of (right now) is that the physical market has diverged to extremes. As a result it will overrun these short positions.

So any further discounting from here is going to force things to really go badly for the two largest short banks. And they are looking for an optimum exit next year anyway. I would say the capitulation we are seeing right now is a classic bottom.”

So stack your physical, boys!!

For those of you who need some love right about now....


I'm strangely unaffected by the PM pukefest... probably cos I just own Calibre Mining.

But if you need some commiseration, no better thing to do than to rush back into the arms of the goldbug scene. They'll give you a sympathy blowjob.

So here's a link to a commiseration post at Turd Ferguson's blog.

He screams about the absurdity, then makes price predictions.

Or there's Zerohedge, who point out:
in 2013 the Fed, alone, excluding all the other central banks, which as we pointed out earlier is vary naive, will conjure out of thin air enough 1s and 0s, equivalent to $1 trillion, or enough money to buy 11% of all the gold in existence in the world.
(PS Zerohedge's math is wrong. Lollipop to the first person to figure it out.)

Wow... so obviously gold should be skyrocketing right now, eh? If not for the scheming of those evil Joos!

Doooooom!!!!



What's really funny is....


Some hilarity with Aurcana


So RBC just put out a report on Aurcana with a $1.25 target. The report is available via the link in this stockhouse post.


A guy at Stockhouse commented on the RBC writeup thusly:

"We have made a decision to report on Aurcana, a little silver company.  The market is bad, and there are broken promises everywhere by everybody in the market, and at this point we do not know which way is up and which way is down, because things are horrible in this space, but this coverage business is part of our business, so we will issue. 
However, we have been burned terribly in the last year, at a minimum, so any report now must be reviewed and signed off on by the chain of command, which right now is largely out having a drink, but when they come back they will review the work product and their comments must and will be incorporated somewhere in that report, even if the insertions make the report arguably a jumbled mess, as this is also to give us the most cautionary wiggle room possible...."  

Note to all you dolts posting on blogs and boards from the bank or investment house you work at: your bosses know you're doing it and they'd like you to stop. You're wrecking your industry's image.

Also you should probably delete that midget porn off your HD.

Three juniors whose charts suck


Let's make fun of some miners whose charts suck, shall we? After all, I don't own them, so why not?


Tower Hill is printing a lower low. MACD crossing down. I guess Livengood will never be a mine.



Sabina Silver is falling into the great chthonic abysm*. I guess Backbacon River will never be a mine either.



And B2Gold is... wait, what? I'm calling doooom on B2Gold? Well, it's dropped so hard that, to me, it's now looking like it wants to hang out with its old ex-girlfriend at the three dollar price point. Giggity.

Sorry Clive, but your chart sucks right now.




* - note to Google: you idiots, fix your grade-three-American spellcheck. "Chthonic" is indeed a word, and so is "abysm". 

Here's a crazy investing idea for you:



National Bank of Greece. $1.60 stop. To da moon Alice? Or not? Certainly has decent risk/reward.

Then again, all that buying volume this week might have been people agreeing that it has a decent risk/reward.

And yet it still hasn't broken above its short EMA and Bollinger mean.

FT on gold... not really.


Here's a hilarious article by Izabella Kaminska:

FT Alphaville - yeah, we don't really get it about gold, either.

It is intriguing that gold hasn't been able to break $1800 since short yields hit zero, sure. Interesting correlation there.

But gold isn't a derivative. Gold is a commodity. (It's only an asset class to rogue bloggers living in caves on the shore of Lake Titicaca.) Ultimately there should be supply-demand determination of its price, no?

So what does zero-bound short yields have to do with gold price? I would assume that the argument "oh, yields can only go up from here" could hurt the price of gold if interest rates were about to go up to try to tighten the leash on an overheating economy. I mean, tighten the leash and all of a sudden the more inefficient developing-world economies will slow down strongly, and then you end up with less Asian wealth to buy physical gold.

But we're not there, are we? Are we expecting less Asian wealth creation over the next year? Or more? Zero yields are different this time - this is an attempt to boost the world economy out of zero growth. Or have we forgotten all the wharrgarbl of the summer and fall, where we were about to fall into a worldwide depression?

I don't get it.

Maybe it's got something to do with this other article, about how the money markets are pulling a snit about the end of the Transaction Account Guarantee.

Frankly I'm drawing a blank.

Oh well, nobody's selling CXB, so I'm happy.

gold and silver, oh my!

Here's gold and silver:



First, please note I've changed the Bollingers to show the 3SD lines, instead of 2SD. Because we're right at -3SD down right now. It's rare to get -3SD out over the past 6 months, but remember that when you do (e.g. October 15) the price can still go down a lot farther - just with less momentum.

Also note both are lower lows. Shit's broken.

Also note RSI is <30 for both of these. Which doesn't mean it can't go lower, but it does mean we're getting into silliesville.

Also note that whatever the heck happened after August 20th to give us the PM boosts we got at the end of the summer, it's all been bled off by now.

Also note that we've got some real blowoff volumes happening in both the ETFs. These charts are as of 11:30AM, which is only 30% of the trading day.

Oh - and also note that platinum is getting kneecapped too:


Because...global... economies... are... collapsing? And... nobody... wants to buy cars?

Yeah, I don't get it.

I'm mildly curious if $152 is the bottom in PPLT. Seems like a horizontal point of importance. Bunged it a couple times already, so maybe this time you'd expect it falls through? But in that case, do gold and silver follow?

I dunno... you wanna triple-short gold and silver right now? It makes no fundamental sense, but the chart is the chart after all....

Someone explain what this is supposed to mean

OK, here's your 30y/2y daily, with gold in the bottom panel:


So what is this supposed to be telling me? Has the mid-term trend for 30y/2y changed? And thus gold should go down? But the bonds are still in the range of the past few months. And why has gold been going down since Nov 26th? That seems to be the wrong direction according to this chart.

Here's the weekly:


Looks like the 30:2 yield spread and gold positively correlate? Is that it? Cos the bonds aren't doing anything strange right now. Very narrow range, very boring.

Again, I'm saying that US bond yields should have nothing to do with the price of gold - except in the mind of some coked-up hedge fund failure who's failed to make money all year because he's a failing failure who failed.

Some newsbits


Bespoke - December after today is historically all up days. Then again, the S&P's been a lot of up days so far this month... and also, wharrgarbl fiscal cliff.

Ritholtz - "quit it with the 'wharrgarbl fiscal cliff'."  As he points out, the market's been going up ever since this fiscal cliff bullshit's been in the MSM news. A very rare bit of wisdom from Ritholtz. And as he hints at in this post, earlier he's noted that the whole "fiscal cliff" noise was really started by CNBC, in an attempt to bow to the will of their masters by demanding that the government forestall the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

Calculated Risk - comments on housing starts. Basically, the US economy is fine.

Gold Report - CIBC's Matt Gibson. He's not worried at all about copper and iron, and thinks China has bottomed.


Wednesday, December 19, 2012

In case you've never seen it before


Too funny to be made up


Y'know, I like laughing at the crazy stone-age beliefs of idiotic hunter-gatherer people more than pretty much anything else.

I also like chixxx.

Thus, this news item hits all the right buttons for me.




Inspired because I can't find a clip on YouTube of Willow's famous "Prince of Night, I summon you! Come fill me with your black, naughty evil!" speech.


Some news for the morning


Bespoke - gold testing 200DMA. Don't read this assuming it's important, but only assume that some people think it's important.

Economic Observer - why China's corruption fight may be for real. Again, that would be very good for China (stopping capital's illicit flight to Singaporean bank accounts and redirecting it toward productive endeavour will have a positive effect on GDP); but I darn well betcha it'll be bearish for gold.

Beyond Brics - illicit flows out of the developing world. Again, an article on the criminality of the elites. Some examples from the article:

China, where elite corruption is an increasingly important political issue, tops the table for exporting illicit financial flows by a mile, with a cumulative $2.74tn between 2001 and 2010.
[...]
 And as a final statistic, the $858bn estimate of of illicit outflows in 2010 is almost 10 times more than the $88bn of official development assistance received by the countries in the study during the same year. All this money could be put to better use by governments of developing countries and in some cases could make all the difference to public spending. Zambia’s losses over the decade, for example, are estimated by GFI at $8.8bn, just under half of its annual GDP. 

And yet one more on the topic of corruption:

Matt Taibbi - outrageous HSBC settlement proves the war on drugs is a joke. No, Matt. It's not a joke; it's another case of institutionalized elite corruption.

I'm happy that, four years after the crash, people are finally starting to wake up to the fact that corruption is one of the great problems of our economies, and that it needs to be stopped. Long-term, this is bullish for developed markets.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

How you know the 30s/2s theory is utter bullshit

Yeah, so the idea is that you should sell your gold and silver now cos the 30s/2s spread is growing.

So explain why platinum and palladium also tanked with gold and silver today?



Why should platinum and palladium go down? They're industrial metals, used in the auto industry. A widening 30s/2s should mean Pt/Pd should go up.

In fact, if the idea is that we should sell gold because the 30s/2s is widening, "indicative of the market pricing in a better global growth story", then why should silver go down? It's an industrial metal, used in electronics and solar power.


So I don't buy the 30s/2s theory. Again, there's no fucking theoretical reason for it anymore, since well over 50% of gold demand comes from emerging Asia; improving economies means gold goes up now.

But on top of it, the moves in Pt/Pd today were wrong. So the 30s/2s argument is evidentially wrong.

It was obviously just some coked-up hedgie puking his over-leveraged paper position into thin bids.

Either that, or some news came out at 11AM today that proves the worldwide economy is collapsing.

You figure it out. My Hennessy won't drink itself.

Evening news


Here's some newsbits from when I was waiting in the doctor's office:

Bloomberg - the market is ignoring the bond ratings agencies' opinions. Maybe because the bond ratings agencies have an ulterior political agenda, which is disconnected from the reality of sovereign debt?

FT Beyond Brics - Asia and the US fecal cliff: stuff of nightmares? And guess what: when a headline includes a doomer proposition followed by a question mark, the answer is no.

Ritholtz's Pet Commie - MSM media figures out banks are criminal enterprises. One of my preconditions for a secular boom in the US economy is the return of rule of law, accompanied by the abandonment of speculative synthetic investments in favour of assignment of capital to productive endeavour. But in order for this to happen, the US mindset must radically change: the fruitcake wing of the Republicans has to be exterminated, and the media has to stop giving a free pass to the parasite class. Looks like we might get there sooner than later. (The collapsing reputation of the bond ratings agencies will help too.)

Kiron Sarkar - daily update. Most important to me here is that Sarkar is finally bullish miners!

JC Parets - Nasdaq equal-weight paints a different picture. Again, it's a moron who doesn't look under the hood of his indicators. Parets is no moron, which is why he's on my required reading list every single day.

BI - trader explains why gold tanked. Simply put, it's because some large hedge fund liquidated when they say the 30s/2s widen. As I said, the 30s/2s has nothing to do with the price of gold; but that doesn't stop some dumbfuck at a hedge fund from acting like it does. And since the hedge funds have been losing money hand over fist for the past 2 years, it probably means we shouldn't be concerned beyond this short-term bump.


The extent of today's PM takedown by noon


At a little before noon, here's where we stand:




Yet China's still strong, VALE is still 3SD up, UUP is going strongly down, IEF is 3SD down. So frankly, I don't see where the urge to dump PMs is coming from - industry is fine, EM is fine, and the market seems to signal coming inflation.

Yet the PMs are going 3SD down on large candles, which may signify a real assbreaker of a PM crash.

So I got a bunch of bills to pay and a doctor's appointment today, and maybe some shopping to do. So I won't worry.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Vale and Southern Copper


Southern Copper doesn't seem to be worried about emerging market growth.



Vale doesn't seem to be worried about emerging market growth.

Three charts of broad market sentiment



IEF seems to be at a turning point, where you'd probably expect it to go down from here.



UUP seems to want to threaten the September low.





JNK looks toppy, but at least it still looks risk-onny.

I guess one possibility is that IEF breaks down, dropping UUP along with it. That'd be good for PMs, but also probably for US export growth.

Then again what happens with the bonds probably depends somehow on what happens with O'fartbongo and John Boner.


Mickey Fulp video interview

Speaking of which, here's a new Mickey Fulp video interview:


That stealthy little bastard uranium!

Check it out. While all you guys were fretting about $HUI and GDXJ and the explorecos:


Uranium has made a bold and vigorous move.

Mickey Fulp's thesis was that the recent drop in uranium happened because the US government made a big U sale despite promising the industry to keep a floor price for U.

With that sale done and gone now, and the bombs-to-fuel program finished, I think right now Mickey will be saying that this is the time that uranium begins to pick up again and dig itself out of this hole.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

An uninformative look at $BPGDM


Here's the bullish percent goldminers index, daily:


It actually looks like it would have been a good idea to buy gold miners when RSI was strongly negative and MACD crossed up, and then dump gold miners when RSI was strongly positive, and MACD crossed down.

Now we're back in a time when RSI is strongly negative, and maybe MACD could cross up?

Here's the weekly:


Again who knows, except the weekly RSI was very contrarian bearish in September, and now it's not.

Frankly, I'd think if you're one of those bozos who bottom-feeds, this is more a time to be buying goldminers, not selling.

Other than that, who knows.