Friday, December 14, 2012

John Kaiser with a "dark warning"

Kaiser went utterly nuclear on BNN today about the scumsucking JP Morgan and the Lizard People and their robots who suck all the capital out of the market.

Here's the link.

PS I bought my $100 trial sub, so I'll be checking out his site to see if there's value there.

Another funny SMBC today

Hey! That John Kaiser thing wasn't a joke!

Hey! Kaiser really is going to be on BNN today! On "Commodities with Andrew Bell Formerly of Erasure" at 11:30! It wasn't a joke!

Let's see if he really does says "DOOOOOOM!"

Friday videos - Of the Wand and the Moon, live

Someone managed to video Of the Wand and the Moon, opening for Death in June, in Denmark last year.

They're repetitive like Swans, yet melodic and jangly like Felt. And gawwwthy.

Good to see they don't do the "let's look cool by moving around on stage" schtick.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

A great excuse to do two things!

Entirely by chance, I came across this website and it has given me an excuse to do two things:

1. It gives me an excuse to go to PDAC on the Tuesday, to see my hero Clive "All Other Miners Suck" Johnson talk about B2Gold! And also Nicaragua.

2. It also gives me yet another reason to talk about how awesome Calibre Mining is, because their bearded rocknerd CEO Greg Smith will also be giving a talk, on how great the CXB drill results have been! And also Nicaragua.

A few more newsbits

BI - how to fix the deficit in one simple chart. Basically: reduce unemployment. But...! But...! That's Keynesianism!!!

Bespoke: and you thought today was a volatile year? Ha!

Biiwii - Gold:Euro breaking lower trend line. Yeah, thanks Gary. Thanks for telling everyone to sell gold.

Biiwii - oh and also, the Venture's going to 0. Yeah: again Gary, thanks. You're really helping out here.

A few newsbits for today, nothing much

Gold is down a bit because... China? I dunno. Silver is down much more strongly because... worldwide industrial collapse or something? I dunno.

GDX and GDXJ are backing off from the Bollinger mean just like I thought they would yesterday. We'll see if they print a lower low in the next few days, or not. Tax loss puking should be about done, I'd think - there's even someone from retail buying Calibre Mining today! A whole one person!

AQM of course is back to 8.5 cents. On 3600 shares traded. After the release of their stellar PEA. Because... well... I'll let Otto explain that.

Anyway, here's some news:

JC Parets - is this guy identifying the coming major secular shift? His EAFE:LatAm ratio chart identifies something important. When the US equity bear ends, you should expect the first world to thereafter outperform the third world. This is basic Jim Rogers theory. If US equities go into a secular bull, the third world and commodities will go inexorably down. The problem is, his chart seems to be saying the shift is happening too soon! Too soon damn you! Does this mean the China banking collapse that flips the switch will happen in 2013? It's too damn soon!

FT Alphaville - Europe gets a banking union, as long as it's the one the Germans want. Typical.

BI - The neocons just don't fucking get it. The logic is so simple, I bet even the lowlifes who read my blog will understand. Here:

P1: If there is no compromise, the Bush Tax Cuts will expire; dividend taxes and capital gains taxes both go up; and the estate tax comes in at a $1M cutoff taxed at between 37%-55%.

P2: Obama has offered a compromise that retains some of the bush tax cuts, has a higher cutoff and lower tax rate for estate taxes, and maybe even compromises on dividend and cap gains (I haven't heard much on that one).

P3: The neocons want to minimize tax increases.

Given P1, P2 and P3, the logical conclusion is?

C1: The neocons should accept the compromise.

Instead, basically, the neocons are telling the Rethuglicunts to not compromise. That means they'll get hit harder with tax increases. Being obstreperous, obstructionist and obtuse is going to give them a result that is diametrically opposed to their own best interests!

My god, it's almost as if someone experienced with tantrum-throwing bratty children was responsible for this tax cliff!

Fucking retards. Seriously: this is what happens when your party gets rid of all its intelligent politicians and replaces them with fucking retarded Jesus-worshipping fucking closet-queer fucking science-denying fucking dogmatic fucking neo-Nazi fucking school-hating fucking MORONS.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Debt ceiling on InTrade - a ZeroHedge article

ZeroHedge - the odds of a debt ceiling deal by year end have plummeted to 16% on InTrade.

My opinion? Good. The Bush Tax Cuts were a fucking stupid fuckup that fucked up the US fucking fiscal position. Get rid of them. Tax the rich. Then the deficit disappears and the fucking Rethuglicunts have nothing to complain about.

Also they're fucktards.

Dammit we took our eye off India again

Dammit dammit dammit

Marketwatch - Indian gold demand revised upward by 23% OMG WTF

I keep paying attention to bullshit instead of supply-demand fundamentals.

I need to delete a couple dozen more RSS feeds.

Jojo interviews John Kaiser

Jojo interviews John Kaiser, who hates exploration companies and wants them all to die.

Note that Calibre Mining has $4M in capital, a rich big brother, several prospective targets that Clive Johnson from BTO calls "a possible porphyry swarm", and so stop selling their fucking shares!

Hey, remember Rye Patch Gold?

So if you'll remember, I said during my Cambridge Toronto review that several people were all bullish on Rye Patch Gold. They figured RPM was a shoe-in to win a court case defending their right to squat on someone else's mine.

Since then?

Good call, guys! You top-ticked RPM!

Kaiser on BNN Commodities friday

Ha ha, bakeapples made a funny.

He said John Kaiser's going to be on BNN on Friday.

He said here's a preview.

Then he posted this:

Why don't I just hand this blog over to you guys.

And to think I coulda had Molycorp

This looked like such an awesome deal at $6.

Turns out it was.

Is it still an awesome deal?

You've seen it before - bear flags in the $HUI and GDXJ

Here's the $HUI and GDXJ, with things marked on them in crayon:

The green lines delineate the "bear flags" that you've already become familiar with: it slowly and painfully claws its way up from the -2SD Bollinger band, then just when you think the coast is clear it collapses back down into the pits of despair.

The red arrow indicates my world-weary response: "oh look, it went up to the short EMA and Bollinger mean again. So it'll probably fail again."

Looks like Gary's $HUI 420 is still in the cards, except for it to get there now it'd either have to grind down slowly, or punch through in a vicious selling puke that goes -3SD.

Wouldn't touch GDXJ under $22.50 here, and even if it went over I'd expect a pullback.

Some light reading you can probably skip

There's no really important news today.

Oh, except for one thing... you can go triple-short silver at 2:14, then triple-long about 15 minutes later. Why? Bernanke's beard will be within 10cm of a microphone.

So here's the news:

Calculated Risk - Wednesday FOMC Meeting. The timeline for the day's precious metals trading is all laid out there for you!

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - We've driven retail out of stocks! Mission accomplished! I dropped him from my RSS a while back, but posts like this remind me that I do miss his jaded take on things like this.

Bloomberg - Google's profits sheltered in tax-haven Bermuda. What a fucking shithole of scum and villainy. I hope they get fucking prosecuted under RICO, the fucking scum-bag thieves and kleptocrats. And let's see how long this post survives on Google-owned Blogger.

And one for Otto:

Beyond Brics - Colombia, Peru cheer EU free trade deal. Otto might be interested in the part where they talk about booze. Then again, I'd expect domestic Peruvian booze is cheaper than imported, even without duties (which from my own Canadian experience are never eliminated with a "free trade deal"), and I doubt he's all that picky.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Exercise in close reading for you

BI - Buffett, Soros ask for a higher estate tax. The important thing here is the statement:

If the White House and Republicans don't reach a deal, however, the estate tax rates are set to revert to Clinton-era levels, when estates valued at more than $1 million were taxed between 37 percent to 55 percent.

Yet another real, underlying, unstated reason why the rich are against letting the US go off the fiscal cliff. Add that to the increase in dividend and cap gains taxes. Now you know the real opinion of every single talking head.

Y'know, when I look at the "fiscal cliff" deal that was made earlier this year, I really gotta say those Republicans really fucking screwed the pooch in an epic way. I mean, this was the deal:

Osama Fartbongo: Hey, let's set up this deficit commission so that if we don't come to a solution, a bunch of sequesters and tax increases automatically take hold. Good idea, eh? Oh plus the Bush tax cuts expire.

Republicans: Hey, great idea! Then you'll have to cave in or we'll have you over a barrel!

Osama Fartbongo: Yas'm I sho' will hafta gib y'all egga-zackleh wut 'choll wawn, mastuh! (Heh heh heh....)

God, those Republicans were played like fucking morons.

Which they are.

Thus proving... well... that the Republican Party has become a party of morons.

Happy 68th birthday, Teri Garr

She's 68 now, easily old enough to be my mom, but Teri Garr was still (I think) one of the cutest and sexiest hotties of the 20th century.

So here's a collection of her appearances on David Letterman. Which I never missed. Because even at a young age I still had a heck of a thing for her.




Again 1987, cos you can tell Letterman really had a thing for her:

And OMG, at 45 she was doing commercials for panties:

Various newsbits

Bespoke - Transports threatening a breakout? That would be economy-bullish, no? Too bad the talking heads say we have to wait for the FOMC before taking a position because supposedly monetary policy at the margin will be enough to destroy the US expansion that everyone says isn't happening.

Bespoke - Industrials take the lead? That would be bullish, no? And after all that talk about robotics destroying the US economy! Too bad the talking heads say we have to wait for the FOMC before taking a position because supposedly monetary policy at the margin will be enough to destroy the US expansion that everyone says isn't happening.

Biiwii - Wharrgarbl FOMC wharrgarbl money supply. Sound and furries signifying nothing? Gary, I suspect at this point that you've been suckered into thinking monetary policy at the margin (what the FOMC does) can get in the way of economic expansion in the US, the bottoming of the depression in the EZ, and the consequent export-led growth in Asia. I think money supply tinkering only applies in a dysfunctional market, and we're (US certainly, EZ possibly in the future) moving back to a normal organic expansion. And I think those analysts who fail to change horses will get burned. But we'll see.

Beyond Brics - India's trade deficit skyrocketing. Interesting... so why is the Indian market up? The chart is the chart, boys.

FT Alphaville - an example of corruption, incompetence and stupidity in the Chinese banking sector. Corruption, incompetence and stupidity in China? Anyway, look at how a load of savings accounts have disappeared in this story and understand that gold isn't going away any time soon in China. Seriously: all those "fiat Weimar Zimbabwe" arguments you hear from the goldbug crowd are silly fictions here in the west with our 600 years of banking history; but they apply perfectly reasonably in China.

IKN: Calibre Mining sucks yet AQM Copper is teh awesomez. Apparently his reasoning is that BTO plowed $1.5M into CXB's JV in Q3 therefore they suck, while Teck considers AQM's Zafranal a marginal also-ran that they'll never in a million years spend $1.5 billion dollars to put into production therefore AQM is awesome - like Sabina Silver or something. Thus AQM's positive hopeful encouraging well-at-least-they-released-it PEA doesn't budge them up from 9 cents while one good hole from Primavera will double CXB's share price from here, and BTO's drilled something like 16 of them at 500m a piece so they must be sure there's something there to hit.

UPDATE: AQM's now up to 11.5 cents because someone wanted to buy $15K worth of shares on the PEA release. A whole $15K of shares. On the PEA release.

Monday, December 10, 2012

This time, four charts not two

The trick with this post will be for you to look at these four charts in order and see the relative performance change from one to the next.

 By now you're probably inured to looking at the GDXJ chart and concluding it looks fucking dismal. OK, no problem there, we'll go with that for now.

Interesting, eh? The silver miners don't look nearly as dismal!

What the hell? Copper miners don't look even remotely dismal? They've lost nothing since 1 October! Why not? I mean, aren't we supposed to wharrgarbl depression wharrgarbl deflationary spiral wharrgarbl global growth collapse?

I mean, on the gold-silver-copper continuum, what does copper traditionally represent? I'm not saying the continuum is still true anymore, but what does copper traditionally represent?

I shouldn't even fucking have to say anything about this last one, but just to make sure it sinks the fuck in I'll give you a chart.

EEM Country Breakdown

Country Percentage
China 19.01%
South Korea 14.04%
Taiwan 10.96%
Brazil 10.46%
South Africa 7.41%
India 6.94%
Russia 5.73%
Mexico 5.13%
Malaysia 3.57%
Indonesia 2.37%
Other 14.38%

Hint: those first four countries are China.

Keep it simple: two and only two charts

Here's the Shanghai exchange:

Looks healthy, eh? It's flown above its Bollinger mean and short-term EMA with conviction.

Now assume the Shanghai is a proxy for wealth creation in China- not the FXI which is full of SEOs, not the other ETFs which are full of the few stocks roundeyes are allowed to buy, but the $SSEC with its domestic-only stocks.

Assume also that Chinese buy at least 21% of world gold production. Because it's fucking true is why.

Now look at gold:

Do you see?

Gold also has three up days in a row.

Not as strong because India is topping out right now and they also buy a significant share of gold production. But still.

Now tell me where that 30s/2s spread is in all of this.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

More pondering of Kaiser and the Great Extinction

So as I was saying earlier this week, I find it intriguing to think about the imminent Kaiser Extinction - where several hundred explorecos are about to disappear off the face of the earth.

The idea is, there's a load of companies out there with nothing to show for several years of "exploration"; they can no longer finance without it being prohibitively dilutive, some can't finance cos of the 5-cent rule, and now they have so little money left at bank that they can't even afford the cost of quarterly Venture filings and a P.O. Box. In the words of Brent Cook, who's been a big proponent of Kaiser Extinction Theory, they're "just going to... [dramatic pause] go... away...."

Now, here's the thing.

OK. If all you can show for 3 years of hookers and blow exploration is a VTEM conductor or a soil sample, then sure. I get it. You have nothing, you'll continue to have nothing, the door has closed on your continued existence, pack it in.

But there are also companies out there who have seen their market cap collapse, but who do admittedly have deposits that should be worth something. In some world, maybe not this world, but in some world.

Why is the Great Kaiser Singularity occurring? If it's because the capital markets are scared of a US recession, a Euro depression and a China collapse, then I can see why nobody considers a property worth pursuing anymore if its break-even point is $2.50 CU or $1400 Au.

But if the US has already bottomed and is going to start growing strongly this year, and if the Euro has already hit bottom and will begin to see improvement soon, those two things alone should create enough aggregate demand to bring China back up to >8% growth, no? In which case all of a sudden China is fine again. And then the rest of the world is fine again.

In which case we get back to thinking that demographic-driven demand growth will continue, and with the supply contraction that's happening we get back to assuming inflationary pricing for PMs and base metals.

Point being, if a company has been slaughtered down to a $5M market cap, but you've got some analyst who swears up-and-down that e.g. no really honestly at $3 Cu this property is worth $500M on buyout, then really, they shouldn't "just go away", should they? Cos they have something of value. Just not of value right now with all the worries about the world economy.

So if I'm the CEO or director at some exploreco with a property that definitely is worth a hell of a lot more than the market's giving us credit for, and I see the bank is down below $200K, why wouldn't I offer to privately finance the company, for say a $200K placement, even at twice the present share price with no warrant? It keeps the company going for a year, after which time we'll have a better read on whether the world economy has moved back into growth mode.

Even if it's only a 40/60 chance that we move back to strong world growth in 12 months, and I finance at twice the price, I only need a 5-bagger to even out the risk-reward. And there's a heck of a lot of companies out there who would be 5-baggers if the damn world economy just turned around, no?

And I'm saying it's a lot more than a 40/60 chance that the world economy is better 12 months from now.

So really, if there are any tuppence-ha'penny explorecos out there that really definitely have a deposit of value, then now would be precisely the time to gobble up their shares, no?

(Of course this thought process didn't stop me from selling my 7-cent AQM shares for 10 cents on Friday... but you get the point.)

Some newsitems

der Spargel - light at the end of the Eurotunnel. Since the Eurozone is something like the developed world's third largest economy (dunno where you'd fit Japan, but it's not like they're going anywhere anyway), what does it mean to export demand in the US and China (and even Mexico) if the EZ economy has bottomed? Hm?

BI - Weezie's happy to see the Euro plunged. It's a very interesting point that proves that Wiesenthal has his head screwed on right: the Euro reacted to the ECB policy announcement the way it should have. Which also indicates the EZ is out of crisis mode.

Now if only Business Insider could get rid of those fucking idiot lamestream-media neo-Nazis who "write" for them like Pethokoukis, Richter, Doug Short and so on, they might have a decent reliable newsfeed that people would profit from following.

And two on gold:

FT Alphaville - on Goldman and the gold price. It touches on Tanashian's idea that OT artificially capped the price of gold; it always sounds like a conspiracy theory when he says it, but the basic argument (from Goldman) is expounded on in this article. I don't pretend to understand it, and I think the argument only applies to gold futures and not the physical market, and I still think real supply and demand should be a strong counter to the paper market; but it's enough to make me stop and think.

And that article references this:

Krugman - Treasuries, TIPS and gold. From last year. Still wonkish but relevant. Though as some commenters on these articles note, the "choke price" seems to be one of those things that magically appears when you doodle economics formulas on a napkin, and not something that can actually be tagged and collared in real life.

I don't pretend to fully comprehend either of those two articles, but since the internet's started talking about them, I think we'll find further, deeper explanation soon.