Saturday, November 10, 2012

News and commentary: their news, my commentary


Haven't been putting up these news stories in a while. Kinda figured you guys just go to my reading list and find the news for yourself. But sometimes I just gotta step in with the commentary.

Bespoke pointed out on Thursday that the market was oversold everywhere. What are you going to trust - your silly gut instinct? Or the cold heartless objectivity of statistics? I trust Bespoke.

BI runs an article by David Kotok where he points out there is actually a lot of clarity available, people are just ignoring it. He's strongly bullish from this point forward. I feel he makes some good points. I've been ignoring Kotok's posts at Ritholtz for a while - maybe I should start paying attention to him again?

Calculated Risk thinks the fiscal cliff nonsense is bullshit, and it'll all be solved. Because that's politics, and (as I like to note re: Germany and stimulus) the minute big business gets freaked out enough about the deal, they'll turn up the heat on their servants in the House to get things solved. I really should add him to my RSS.

Speaking of which, I've deleted a few feeds from my RSS recently. WSJ's Marketbeat seemed to be a bit of a waste of time - all I do is scan the headlines. So, delete it.

I was also temporarily subscribed to the Uncommon Wisdom Daily blog, just to check it out. I like Brodrick, but the other writers there are utterly worthless to me - the same political dogma bullshit that I can follow anywhere else and lose the same amount of money on in the market because it's wrong. Meanwhile, there was also a horribly pumpy promo selling a Brodrick writeup that just made him look bad by association. So it goes off my list as well. Sorry Sean, I like you, but I won't wade through a mountain of garbage to find you. Start your own blog please.

I think there were one or two other blogs I've deleted. Ritholtz is actually teetering on the precipice. And I might delete my Bull Market Run feed.

All this because I don't need news. I need the truth.

You do too, so you should also look into culling your newsfeeds. Just a bit. Maybe just one feed for starters, and see how it goes.

Speaking of which, here's another guy who I'm about to delete unless he fucking cleans up quick:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) is now forwarding some other loon's idiotic idea that we're drawing a gigantic head and shoulders that will ultimately drive the NYSE Composite down to 2000. I.e. down 75% from today. And that's only if you use the log scale - a linear scale gives you a target of negative 2000 or worse.

This sort of collapse porn, which Ritholtz has also gotten into, makes me think that Josh Brown and Ritholtz and that whole doomer crowd has gotten heavily into the blow and are now suffering from cocaine psychosis. I'm fucking serious: I fail to find any explanation which doesn't involve massive drug use.

Now, is there a drop coming in the market, long-term? Well, the average secular bear has three crashes, and we've only seen two. I betcha if we do see a 40% collapse in the next couple years that they'll all be screaming about how we're about to see the market collapse into nothingness.

And that'll be the time to buy because we're about to go into a secular bull.

Fuck you for your queerboy doomer shit, Brown. Just remember you're not a fucking economist, you were a telemarketer in a fucking bucket shop and then you started a blog about it.

And whatever happened to the sane Ritholtz who used to say "when the market's going up, I'm supposed to be making money"? Where's the sane Ritholtz who says "when the music's playing you're supposed to dance"? I'll tell you - these guys have let their heads get swelled by a couple years of attention, and now they've turned into self-referential cokeheads who fuck knows might start stocking up on weapons and silver rounds next, renting out their buttholes to Sprott and Casey, and giving half-hour talks on some podcast about the coming apocalypse.

I bet they find Jesus next.

Fuckwads.

I can get enough of that shit from ZeroHedge. Is that where you want to be posting a year from now? Grow the fuck up and give me hard data that I can base an investment decision on. Otherwise say hello to the militia crowd, that'll be what's left of your readership.


Friday, November 9, 2012

monopoly joke


Friday video - Cantus Buranus for the election apocalpyse


Well, it's US election time, and thoughts turn to the end of all things, the apocalpyse, the wardroids rolling over piles of human skulls.

So, with some apocalyptic background music for you, here's Corvus Corax, and maybe a hundred other people who we really don't care about as much, performing the entirety of the mediaeval opera Cantus Buranus, which later was reimagined as Carmina Burana by Carl Orff.


Thursday, November 8, 2012

Josh Brown the loveable fucktard will blow up all his clients

Josh Brown the Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) is proving himself to be a right fucktard, with his hanging out with the conspiracy theorists at BI on election night and his propensity to cranially probe Ritholtz's descending colon.

Still, he's a loveable fucktard, so I won't delete him from my RSS just yet. It's close, though.

To wit:

1. Borker posted yesterday that "oh fuck it's a recession look at this chart I found lying at the side of the road!!!!1!"

2. Jeff Miller at Dash of Insight basically tore the econoblogoblowhardosphere a new bunghole and stomped it dry, then beat it like a mixed-race stepchild, with this post. Excerpts include:

If you actually read the cited paper you would see the following points:
  1. The authors were trying to improve slightly on the NBER  recession dating process -- getting closer to real time.
  2. The authors recommended waiting until a reading of 80% was reached for three consecutive months to avoid excessive false positives.  (P. 9 of the paper).
At a minimum, if you are going to use your bully pulpit on the Internet to scare the daylights out of people, wouldn't it be a good idea to confirm with the authors first?   This is the downside of a world where no confirmation is required before publishing.
and
My strong recommendation is that interpreting a complex economic paper should involve the opinion of the authors.  I strongly doubt that any of the pundits writing about this could speak coherently for thirty seconds about Markov models.  So why should we listen to them?
and best of all
To this end let me say that Dwaine Van Vuuren of RecessionAlert, one of my regular featured sources, suggested to me that the published chart does not reflect original data.
  3. And yet the Borker continues to spray a fountain of boo on the internet.

Josh, you're going to fucking blow up all your clients until you take the fucking ideological blinders off and start looking at reality.

Primero Mining: the bitchslap from Peru

One analyst was short! The other analyst was long!* Two analysts enter, one analyst leaves!

Primero Mining put out its 3Q financials today.

Here's a link to some rogue Peruvian blogger's commentary.

Here's a chart:


Here's an owl:




* - UPDATE: Jojo reminded me that he was only long til Sunday, when he called a sell on the stock. So in reality he left Thunderdome early.

Molycorp news. Or not.

So Molycrap took a big dive, and someone was wondering if this was why:

Mineweb - REE miner Molycorp sues Project Phoenix engineers for $45m-plus in damages

Meh, I doubt it. Why?

Lawsuit was filed on Oct 31, sure. But it's associated with a termination of contract that occurred back in May, which (I'd hope) was already announced. MCP says they're on it, production won't get held up.

With all that in mind....

I don't know M&K ChemEng at all, but I'd have to think if the MCP allegations are true, that "[m]any of M&K's designs were unsafe creating hazardous conditions that, if not rectified, could have resulted in serious injury or death to personnel working in and around the facilities", and M&K "failed to perform its work in accordance with good engineering practices...and consistently failed to provide its work product in accordance with the contractual work schedule", that this reflects very badly on the executives at MCP.

After all, they hired ChemEng consultants who they allege demonstrated incompetence in workplace health & safety and couldn't even meet schedule.

I've gathered that rare earth processing is a chemical process. It's not "dump dirt in a puddle and sprinkle cyanide on it". It requires a heck of a lot of skill to separate chemically near-identical rare earths out of strange uncommon rock types and then purify it to the point where it's useful to a buyer.

Point being, you don't go to some little engineering company in a country ruled by the Taliban for your engineering process. You go to someone in Europe who works with real chemical companies like 3M.

MCP's failure in procuring good engineering reflects badly on the company, I think.

Liberty Silver is finally prettying herself up for her date with charming and handsome Mister Gravity


In all the hysteria about the entire rest of the world and things that really matter, we've quit paying attention to Liberty Silver (not the singer), and that's bad.

So here's a chart, and that's good:



Oh dear! Why isn't anyone buying? There's no volume, and the only volume that exists seems to be selling!

Hey Westie, why aren't you standing by your call? Jebediah, is this still a screaming buy? Bond David Bond, shouldn't you rally the troops to fight off the rabid short-selling... of, um, a whole thousand shares this morning?

Stonekettle Station on the Obamapocalypse


Stonekettle Station is one of my favourite blogs. Also, because I've never gotten even one hit from Alaska, I know he doesn't read my blog: so the use of "Schadenfreude" in his post title indicates an equal intellect to mine, not just brazen plagiarism.

Anyway, today he has a good post on the lack of a post-Obama apocalypse. Read it here.

Oh, and Jim Wright for president.


GDXJ at the open


It will; be interesting to see if GDXJ can hold the EMA(16) today. EMA(65 or so) is important to hold, and MACD could cross positive.

Of course you have to get out of this descending bollinger band after that.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

So Otto asks me....

So Otto sends me a link to this screed.

Then he asks:

Serious question: Is this a significant percentage of US society? (for reference, I'd put that at 5% minimum)
My answer? Without reading that post in much detail?

No. Maybe. I have little recent experience with the US. The only American I've talked to in the past few years was Jojo, and he's (as far as I know, might be wrong) from a state that just legalized weed so he probably doesn't really represent.



Anyway, one thing you've got to understand about humans is that most of them aren't self-aware enough to do more than act out well-defined social roles. In this guy's case, he's acting out a social role that he's probably exposed to a lot of the time on the US hate radio that he probably listens to - certainly Rush Limbaugh, given how much he goes on about "sluts".


Also, you gotta remember that when you give a guy a blog, or really any sort of podium, most of the time he's going to act out a role instead of think for himself. Really, a "social role" is a lot like designer clothing or accessories - their connotations construct an identity for people who don't have any.


(That's why I keep harping on about why I don't want readers, or to become popular - I was a sucker for socially-constructed identity for the longest time, cos I'm only human too, andd so if this blog ever got too popular it'd "go to my head" and I'd start living in some fantasy-land - and thus lose all my money on the market.)

So this is some guy who probably hates women due to unfortunate personal experiences. Serious - look at his other posts and you'll see it's perfectly clear that he is not married right now.

He probably also hates blacks due to the contemporary zeitgeist of the US. I mean seriously - do people really think Obama's a "muslim atheist Communist Nazi"? No; they hate him cos he's (partly) black. But they can't say that, so instead they give him other fantasy identities that are still socially acceptable to attack.


So are a significant percentage of Americans like this dude?

When I read the comments on articles at places like Fark, there is always someone who talks about how fucking batshit their southern Baptist family are. And there are a lot of batshit fundies out there - listen to The Non-Prophets for a good atheist podcast about them.

And there's a fuckton of racism in a lot of places in the US. Seriously, if the Secret Service protected Obama like any other president, there would be 100,000 Americans in jail or executed right now for making terroristic threats against the POTUS. Like this:


Or this:



And he's the target of racist bigotry, like this:


And then there's this:


(Which BTW comes from the Lyndon LaRouche mob, who have been hardcore McCarthyite/Moonie right-wing loons with a small devout following for fourty years, and the only difference today is that Glenn Beck got into bed with them and got them some new readership.)

Really, all that stuff comes from the same right-wing neo-Nazi fringe that's been skulking in the shadows in the US forever. Okay? It's always been there. Go read Richard Hofstadter, esp. Anti-Intellectualism in American Life or The Paranoid Style.


But really, the hateful angry blowhard Americans are in the minority. And they're usually just trying to look like their heroes and repeat the exact same talking points they heard on Limbaugh earlier that week.

Newsflash, IKN doesn't like Seafield


Presented without comment on my part, except for a sinister laugh and a constant refreshing of my stats page, here's IKN going back in time to the promotion of Seafield.

IKN: the ballad of Seafield Resources

Including a link to all his other posts on Seafield.

Eesh... Molycorp just pooped a lung


Title of this post comes from a not-very-popular House meme, which mapped out the plot of a typical House episode. At one point about 45 minutes in, the "patient poops a lung", i.e. something really bad happens.

(In one episode the patient's scrotum explodes - but we find out at the end of the episode that it's just a dream sequence.)

Anyway, here's Molycorp:


Final target for this next drop?

God knows. We've run clear off the map.

I gotta wonder if anyone's still short.

Chart: a failed business model versus a successful business model

Here's a chart for you:




GDXJ is the junior miners.

SII is one of the many companies that fucks junior miners over for cheap shares, so they can puke them back into the market at a loss 4 months later.

And FNV is one of the few companies who enable juniors to accomplish something, then invests their profits in more of the same.

One business model is an older, failed one; the other business model is a stunning new successful one.

You think the chart can tell you which is which?

I'd even go so far as to say that the reason GDXJ goes down is because there are too many Sprotts and not enough FNVs. Get rid of the Toronto financiers; replace them all with streamers and it'll be good for the miners and good for investors.

Metamarket comment


"Meta" means "beyond" - and what's going on today transcends "markets".

But probably only in a stupid meaningless way.

Yeah, Josh Brown and Ritholtz are all gloating about their "earnings recession" call and this is the first day of it and oh boy things would have been different if Mittens won.

But this is just people repositioning after an election was determined. See this article at Bespoke - this always happens after an election.

Plus someone was saying this morning (no link sorry - probably Sarkar) that Germany's finally fallen into contraction, as noted by Draghi. Ooh, let's sell everything then! - not so fast; like I said, the minute the crushing effect of austerian contraction hits German big business, Merkel will change her tune and suddenly support stimulus. Especially because she's up for re-election in Sep 2013. That is bullish.

China's still in the process of selecting their new leadership. Once the new leadership is in place they can start fixing their economy. That is also bullish.

See, Brown and Ritholtz suffer the stupid American delusion that their country is the only one that exists. That's why they won't make money.

And by the way, there have already been a lot of very good editorials on the US election, mostly referring to how the Rethuglicunts have to change their strategy cos they'll never win an election with only 7% of the black vote and 30% of the hispanic vote; but here's the best editorial on the US election, from der Spargel.

Here's an excerpt:

The United States Army is developing a weapon that can reach -- and destroy -- any location on Earth within an hour. At the same time, power lines held up by wooden poles dangle over the streets of Brooklyn, Queens and New Jersey. Hurricane Sandy ripped them apart there and in communities across the East Coast last week, and many places remain without electricity. That's America, where high-tech options are available only to the elite, and the rest live under conditions comparable to a those of a developing nation. No country has produced more Nobel Prize winners, yet in New York City hospitals had to be evacuated during the storm because their emergency generators didn't work properly.

Anyone who sees this as a contradiction has failed to grasp the fact that America is a country of total capitalism. Its functionaries have no need of public hospitals or of a reliable power supply to private homes. The elite have their own infrastructure. Total capitalism, however, has left American society in ruins and crippled the government. America's fate is not just an accident produced by the system. It is a consequence of that system.
Freaky - you mean Germans bury their hydro lines? That costs like 3x as much as going aerial, easily. Oh well.

And here's another bitch-slap for you:
We want to believe that Obama failed because of the conservatives inside his own country. Indeed, the fanatics that Mitt Romney depends on have jettisoned everything that distinguishes the West: science and logic, reason and moderation, even simple decency. They hate homosexuals, the weak and the state. They oppress women and persecute immigrants. Their moralizing about abortion doesn't even spare the victims of rape. They are the Taliban of the West.
Seriously. The vote wasn't between a Republican and a Democrat: it was between an unthreatening no-policy moderate and the fucking Jesus Taliban.

Anyway, here's one more article for you: JC Parets is amazed that the gold miners are no longer sucking™. Again, significant. Um, for me anyway.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Look, to prove I'm not shitting you


Really, honestly, the SEC is checking out my blog.

Here. My stats account doesn't go back far enough to show you the first visit, but the guy who did visit from the SEC copied links to my articles and then emailed them to someone else, in Washington so he must be important, who then clicked on the same articles:


(I've censored the mailhashlinkthing in case that sort of info is hackable.)

And so today the SEC fellow came back to my blog and checked it out some more.


I guess he couldn't find the David Bond article that I was linking to (thus my previous post), so he ended up just poking around through all my other posts, trying to figure out how much of a creep and fruitcake I am.

Or maybe trying to find out if I'm one of the people who promoted LSL.

No guys, not me.

Anyway. All joking aside, you can tell that this SEC guy is major fucking important, cos he's got one hell of an awesome screen resolution. His boss gave him one of the good monitors. He's no secretary with a 800x600 rez, dude!

Dear SEC reader: re that recent David Bond article you can't find

I see that David Bond article in defense of Liberty Silver got deleted from silverstrategies.com.

Silverminers.com also had the article, and that website is down now too.

OK, you can find it at 24hgold.com for now. If you still want to see it. Hurry up cos I bet it gets deleted from there soon too.

And in my original post I'd said "read it now, because given other promoters' past actions, you just know it'll disappear off the internet in 2 weeks" - ha! That was last Tuesday. Seven days.

Anyway, Mr. SEC fellow - I'll add a "Liberty Silver" tag to all my articles so you can find them from now on.





UPDATE: I also saved a copy of the 24hgold.com article here on Blogger as a draft post, in case the last copy on the internet gets deleted. You know, in case you SEC guys want to see it. For laughs really.

At this very moment


At this very moment, 12:52ET, silver is +3.5%, gold is +2%, S&P 500 is +0.9%, GDXJ is +2.7%, GDX is +2%.

So therefore Obama has won.

Now off to the next obsession.

On the off chance....

On the off chance that this is the last we see of Mittens Rmoney, here are some funny memes for y'all:









And, finally, winning the award for simplicity:

USA progress


So it looks like, from the +1% gains in the S&P, silver and gold, that the market is guessing that Obama has won the US presidential erection.

Stupid me I didn't stack more physical yesterday.

Oh well... since the entire world has been waiting on tenterhooks for this result, I'm sure we'll get maybe a 1-day pop and then everyone's attention will go to the next neurotic obsession. Maybe Greece.

Corvus chart

Here's Corvus' chart:



I thought the NR that gave the last boost (on some grab samples) did not merit Corvus' advance, so I sold out - maybe at $1.60 or so? Well, turns out that wasn't a bad move.

Anyway - KOR has found support before around the EMA(16) and bollinger mean. So will that happen again? Or will something bad happen? Here's a place where you can either take a position expecting yet another rebound, or learn that Corvus is done its recent advance.

I'm agnostic on the issue right now. But the decrease in volume makes me think the $1.60s was it for the time being.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Here Otto, let me fix that for you

Let me fix that for you:

A German, a Greek, a Portuguese and an Irishman go into a bar. The German pays, because he owns the Greek, Portuguese and Irishmen's homes and has been charging them insanely high rent for years anyway, and the German even has the balls to whine and complain about the situation and especially how they're still trying to make him feel guilty for when he murdered six million Jews and thirty million Soviets and bombed Europe into the stone age and terrorized women and children with his insane racial superiority complex.

But he doesn't dare complain about paying the Spaniard's way, because the Spaniard has figured out all he has to do is threaten to leave the arrangement and Deutschebank will collapse, destroying the German economy forever.
Also, Germans are cunts.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Article from Ritholtz


Like I said, once in a while Ritholtz will post a good article.

Here's one from this weekend on information, and why you need less of it.

Basically everything he says, I'd say to you too, so that's why I forward it to you. I also keep an asterisk beside some writers' names to remind me that they only rarely put out anything of value; I also feel there are only a couple people out there worthy of constant reading (New Deal Democrat, 90% of Kiron Sarkar, and maybe 70-80% of Gary Tanashian); and I'm usually trying to delete people off my RSS, not add.

And once any writer gives away that he's writing for ideological reasons, I cut him off and never go back. Because ideology is not reality, and I make money off of reality, not ideology. As Chomsky used to say, "the rich don't read your media, they have their own; because if they invest based on the lies that you're fed, they lose money. They need to know what's really going on in the world."