Friday, October 26, 2012

Korelin's now gotten into Huldra

Al Korelin must have a Jojo sub, cos he's gotten into Huldra Silver now.

Here's his 4-minute interview with Ryan Sharp.

Hope it does better for you than Lupaka!!!

Barry Ritholtz says time to sell stocks, I think he's deluded and full of shit

BI - Ritholtz says time to sell

Frankly, I think he's full of shit. He says "ignore the fiscal cliff, you should take a look at the earnings cliff"? He says "The US will enter a recession in 18 months"? Fine. Let's look at facts.

US earnings are down because China growth was reduced slightly, and the peripheral provinces of The Fourth Reich has entered a severe recession. How does it get worse from here? The new Chinese leadership will come in and start to implement the Singaporean model; the minute Germany sees unemployment go up they'll turn their backs on the discredited austerity programs that even the IMF has given up on, and begin stimulus and Euro devaluation.

In fact austerity's time has passed. When even the IMF has cluef in that the fiscal multiplier is significantly >1, every finance minister in the EU should clue in within 6 months.

That's the path forward. Earnings only look back.

Y'know, Ritholtz poisoned his little brain when he did that stupid Big Picture Conference a few weeks back - he invited every fucktard doomer except Raoul Pal, and they all gave presentations on how everything is doom-de-fucking-doom.

Ever since then he's been freaking out about doom himself.

Now, if that cunt Rmoney wins the election, there'll be a big spurt of investment as all the neocon cryptofascists in big business decide to let out the piles of money they've been refusing to invest under President The Secret Reason Everyone Hates Him Is That He's Coloured. So the US economy will get rolling for a few months - then perhaps by 2H 2013, or 2014 for sure, it'll collapse under the stupidity of Tea Party economics.

That's really the only downside risk here. That or the Chinese demographic cliff coming in 2015-2017.

Ritholtz better get the fuck out of his bunker and stop getting all his opinion from these talking-head fucktards that he's started hanging out with. He's breaking his own rules of investing.

Friday videos - Stars of the Lid

American ambient music, from Texas even.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

More reading

Slate - Don't believe the hype about the fiscal cliff - it's just the plutocrats trying to encourage more rape of the poors to fatten yet more their wallets. True.

Gold Report - Sprott's Charles Oliver says... exactly what we expect him to say. Yawn. Oh, also he likes FVI and BCM.

IKN - OMG zinc is teh doomz. Yeah, you have to wonder what year the zinc price is finally going to crawl above the marginal cost of production, eh?

FT Alphaville - there is no inflation in Europe, fuck off you fucking Krauts.

Beyond Brics - The Venezuelan central bank is selling gold.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the coming demographic cliff. Or cliffs. It's important because economics is dependent on demographics. But the chart he uses is fuckdumb, and I've seen much better demographic charts out there.

Economist - Explaining the Euro growth problem.

FT Alphaville - remember all the fooferaw about Spanish funding needs in October? Yeah... you can forget it now, nothing happened.

And the new guy on the block....

Bull Market Run - looks like a bottom is nigh for PMs. As he notes, October has always been a hideous fucking month for gold equities, so we've done rather well considering; and Nov-Feb is the glory time to come. November in particular is stellar. So just buy up, go all-in, cash to zero, cos this next month should really give you a few home runs.

Message for Mister Lupaka Warrants

I know you're probably Former Mister Lupaka Warrants by now, but since you love warrants so much....

I just came across - a guy whose entire sub is apparently based around trading junior miner warrants.

Know him at all? Any good?

Warrants have become like crack to me, so I was thinking of applying sub money to this instead of to Kaiser, since really I'm not in the mood for Kaiser's explorecos.

Liberty Silver

I'm tired of all the search engine hits for Liberty Silver. So here you go:

You can also find her music on iTunes.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Dundee vomits for a cheap cross

Look at this for a thing of beauty....

I guess I don't have "clearance" to say which company this is, but suffice to say that Dundee's been puking them for a while now. They should be trading at $1.55 or so.

Finally they puked the company all the way down to $1.40, just so they could do a >$2M cross.

Way to go, guys.

Yes I'm in there grabbing cheap shares, but I fucking hate this sort of action.

Some news stories

Looks like I could get laid off work for a few months, so I will have more time to spend with you, my dozen or so readers, while collecting UI. Don't worry about me - I've got loads of money now that CXB is taking off!

Morning news:

Bonddad - Financial Times is way better than the WSJ. Because FT realizes there are other countries in the world besides the USA. Also, he is learning how hard it is to come back from hip surgery.

JC Parets - The Ryders Beta Chase Index. Yet another contrarian sentiment indicator that you can file away for future use. And yes, right now it says the US broad market has bottomed.

Reuters - China cabinet seeks ambitious economic reform agenda. China is fixing itself, like I said.

WSJ (no paywall) - VIX in backwardation. I.e., people are more worried about volatility in the now than a few months from now.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The bottom for PMs has to be in the next 24 hours

Why does the title say that "the bottom for PMs has to be in the next 24 hours"?

Well, remember India?

From The Hindu Business Line:

Gold sales generally grows considerably during over a month-long festival season, which comprises Dussehra on October 24, Dhanteras on November 11, followed by Diwali on November 13.
Now, do you really think the Lizard People and the Joos are going to allow Indians to buy gold at this cheap price that we have right now?

Of course not.

Thus I really suspect the bottom is in.

Oh, and in case you're still all in love with central banks and the debt ceiling and other ZeroHedge bullshit:
Annually, Indians buy an estimated $15 billion worth gold bars and coins or roughly 270 tonnes. Gold coins form around at least 50-60 per cent of the total gold demand.

Some light reading

BC Lund - Seven ways to focus your trading. He's one of my favourite trading psych bloggers out there. One example of simple genius:

Any news that is important you will see in price first.

A fundamental belief of TA. And maybe it might not always work well in the real equity world; but in our little crooked scummy junior mining sphere, I think price can be the tell that some good news (or bad) is coming. Price with volume, of course.

So there, Mister guy-who's-short-Primero-and-doesn't-see-a-reason-to-buy-ATY-til-he-sees-the-sulphide-numbers.

Oh - speaking of which:

Marketwire - PAAS offers $1.1 billion for Primero Mining. Just to see how well you can sleep at night.

And finally,

der Spargel - Russia's war on gays, lesbians, and the fucking rainbow for fuck's sake. You still think this is an "emerging" economy? Russia's a joke. Avoid Russia, avoid Russians. Thus I sold Nevada Copper.

What I'm watching

Here's some things I'm watching, in preparation for the bottom....

Argonaut is falling back nicely. I'll have to see if Jojo has a buyback target for it. Could this barf all the way to $8.50, you think? I might just buy the Dec 2012 warrants: after all, I'm a swing-trader anyway.

BTO is also falling back on declining volume, after emitting a load of paper to buy something in the Philippines or wherever. Don't be surprised if Otto eats a dish of crow and calls this one a buy sometime!

DPM is the junk version of B2 - they buy stuff that sucks, but make money on it. I've made money on them before, and they have insufficient interest outside of GDXJ so they tend to swing a lot intraday as GDXJ selling unfairly influences their share price.

All I have to say is, you must be a lover of butthurt to be short Primero. Dude, why do you think it's up on increasing volume? Because the market is stupid? Newsflash: you are correct, the market is stupid, and you gotta be on the right side of the stupid to make money.

Then again, maybe it goes down from here.

Vista Gold: I have no clue what they do, but they have a weird three-phase warrants structure with out-of-the-money warrants with multiple strike prices at multiple years. I guess if it starts going up, those warrants will be a fun place to be?

And Calibre Mining just printed a $0.25, so I'll have to buy sme expensive booze for the weekend.

New blog find: Bull Market Run

I know nothing about the guy, but while poking about the Huldra board I noticed a link to a "bull market run" analysis of HDA's chart, so I gave the blog a look.

Meh, blog looks nice, explains things easily, seems to cover the Venture explorecos like saran wrap, so I'd like to add him to my RSS feed for a while and see how his TA works over time.

Bull Market Run

Let's check in on the state of fear

OK, so VIX is up over 2SD....

But nobody seems to be fleeing junk,

They're not particularly barreling into US Treasuries,

And they aren't particularly jazzed up about the US dollar either.

So this isn't a fear play of the sort we've seen in the past, with concern about Europe.

EM bonds are diving, but that was an idiotic bubble to begin with.

China looks bottomed, and it's mainly US stocks that are dying.

They're dying cos they can't stop talking about their Q3s, which we know sucked, because we just saw Q3. I.e., earnings are a backward-looking indicator. And guess what? Because of stupid ape psychology, forward guidance is also a backward-looking indicator; because it's based entirely on the assumption that what's been happening will continue to happen. Which is usually wrong to assume.

S&P 1370 matches nicely with the bottom of the trendline established from Nov 2011 thru Jun 2012, so I'm assuming things can go down to that point and it'll be "normal".

The stocks that I own right now are actually holding up quite well - nobody really wants to sell them. Good. I'll keep holding them, and maybe look for some other deadly deals.

Silver's probably seeing the swap dealer shorts cover right about now. Would be a good time to cover, I think, since nobody really seems to be suggesting silver can drop below maybe $31. A reduction in swap dealer shorts should eventually see the COT look less terrible.

MCP looks like it's bottoming on low volume, so maybe it's finally safe to buy that back?

Just some ideas. Now seems to be a good time to just stand pat and watch where things go.

Monday, October 22, 2012

News reads

JC Parets - Forget the news, look at price. As he says, "Leave the sexy headlines to those who need to sell advertising for a living." As in:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - The fear-mongering cliff. As already noted elsewhere, the "fiscal cliff" is only of any importance to the right wing fucktard oligarchs who rule the US. And anyway, don't they want cuts in spending? For example:

BI - Neo-Nazi cunt Faber wants the US government cut by 50% but he doesn't like the "fiscal cliff". Hey, Faber, you cunt, how's about the US closes the budget gap by taxing the rich, like things used to be before your cunt buddies fucked up the US budget?

Today's lessons: Ignore the news and look at price. Ignore the fear-mongering, and that includes anything from any right-wing cunt.

Wowsers, AMD sucks

Here's a flaming death demon of a stock for you....

I dunno why it's tanking, except of course cos it's a Semi and it's put out sucky numbers.

Wanna play a mean-reversion trade on this? Or take it for a bottom-feeder play?

Or would you rather wait til it stops dropping?

It's a stock to keep on your watchlist, anyway... especially if you're a goldbug, cos then you can gloat about how at least your junior miner stocks don't suck as much as the Semiconductors. I mean really, this is like the fucking Baja Mining of Semis.

Personally, I think it should stop dropping soon; the "Semis suck" meme should be nearly played out by now. Plus, earnings are a backward-looking indicator.

But I won't touch it til at the very least it gets above -3SD.

Wow, this chart sucks.

10AM LSL checkup


I stand corrected.

It's 10AM and LSL is at 72-74 bid-ask. 330K shares traded, Canadian retail is buying.

OK, so it must be a completely good stock after all. Cos the market is never wrong.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

In your fucking face, EM demand doubters

Imagine my surprise when I turned to ZeroHedge for some light reading (I'm drunk y'know) and saw this article:

Chinese Gold Imports Through August Surpass Total ECB Holdings, Imports From Australia Surge 900%

So... gold is dependent on... Chinese demand?

It can't be! The Fed QEternity purchases are sterilized, therefore gold should hold steady! Don't buy gold!

Fuckheads. I told you the price of gold is dependent on Chinese demand. Now even ZeroHedge agrees with me.

Especially note this part that they highlight for you:
"However, gold consumption is likely to climb again in the fourth quarter, a traditionally peak season when Chinese people buy gold jewellery for weddings and presents," he added.

Now fuck off with your US money supply chickenshit. The US does not matter to gold. China and India matter to gold.

Leave your fucking ego at the door before you try to understand this market, cheese.

Mickey Fulp: The analyst so nice they interview him twice

Some guy who's not Tommy Humphreys interviews Mickey Fulp in Toronto last month, and here's the video just now:

And this Jeremy Martin kid is unconsciously funny too - he starts out by saying
"Whenever we  come to these financial conferences, people are always very interested in getting a piece of the geologist"
to which I reply:

And hey, from a couple weeks ago here's Mickey with a junior mining 101 video, poor sound quality, but still useful for noobs:

And I still say he and Brent should get together and write a textbook for junior mining investors, and he's already basically got the outline worked out here so god knows why he doesn't just do it already.

And hey, from a few weeks ago, I found a big half-hour lecture by Mickey on Rare Earths:

And PS Mickey, thanks for putting all your videos up on YouTube.