Saturday, October 20, 2012

Liberty is liberated! The Ottotrans edition

Aw heck, go read the entire press release.

Basically, Liberty Silver will resume trading on the TSX on Monday.

I intend to book the day off work to watch the unfolding Götzen-Dämmerung.

Maybe I should get some chips and dip.

You should go read the entire complete NR in its complete entirety, but I'll give you some choice cuts of veal after the pagebreak:


Friday, October 19, 2012

Sardonic commentary


Absent any material reason for literally everything to be dropping all at once, I suspect what's really happening is that the HFT algos, programmed to take input from Google Trends and proprietary spiders, have noticed that there is an inordinately high use of the word "crash" in the media today - referring to "Hey, remember October 1987" news stories - and, as a result of poor context programming, have decided the market must be crashing right now.

That would be really funny.

Don't fight the stupid - be the stupid.

My stocks are pretty much okay so I'm not worrying. Maybe I'll get a chance to buy 1 million CXB at 16 cents....

Friday videos - Iron Maiden in concert, 1983


Why not some nice Iron Maiden to take the edge off things?



Thursday, October 18, 2012

midday comment

Nothing much to say. I found the weakness in silver unconvincing. I'm at $0 cash now. And I am still a happy holder of Molycorp, which looks like it's finally making the shorts throw in the towel.

Yet GDX and GDXJ still are trying to make it look like they're rolling over.

If the S&P 500 breaks 1470, expect a big party with balloons and hookers and stuff.

Haven't even checked the news today, don't care.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Now I know how Jeff Berwick must feel

I didn't want to post any more stupid Liberty Silver stories.

OK I can't help it. It's the new Century Mining.

Financial Post (part of National Post, the newspaper for the well-paid stupid*) - Regulators fall short on probe of Liberty Silver trading halt

(1) Barry Critchley, your editor is a fucktard. What is this title even supposed to mean? Someone's supposed to probe the halt?

(2) Barry Critchley, now you are also using fucktards as content. To witless:
Others were buying the shares that were being sold. In an email, one shareholder said after seeing the price drop, after checking for news and finding none, they proceeded to buy shares. “I bought a total of 15,000 shares at a cost of about 98¢. Almost immediately the stock was halted. Still no news. A short while later, on a message board, I read that the SEC had halted the stock before the open that day.”
So the fucktard who emailed you saw a stock drop about 40%, wiping out a month's worth of gains in a few minutes. He said "herp derp no problem here I'll buy $15K at 98 cents to da moon Alice!". Then, afterwards, he goes and checks the bulletin boards to try to figure out why the stock he just bought $15K of is down.

And then he complains that IIROC didn't protect him from his own actions.

My god, now I know how libertarians like Jeff Berwick must feel about statist intervention.

UPDATE: Shit, I missed this one totally. Otto Rock wrote in to point it out.

(3) Barry Critchley, you yourself are also a fucktard. The fact that you decide to include this in the copy:
On page 75 the report says “Inferred mineral resources must be excluded from estimates forming the basis of feasibility or other economic studies.”
shows that you know fuck all about the subject.




* - I checked, and the poor working-class stupid still read the Toronto Sun.

Romneymemes!

OK, here's more Romney memes to boost my webpage traffic:













Brent & Quinton on the Gold Report


The BQ are interviewed in the Gold Report today.

Two takeaways: one, Cookie likes Pilot Gold, and that's nice cos I bought back the shares that I dumped earlier.* I figured if it can stand up so well to a dilutive financing, I may as well stick around and see some more holes get drilled.

Secondly,
BC: There's going to be a lot of pressure on these juniors coming into the end of the year. It's been going for quite a while; we've seen a reprieve, but there are a lot of funds that have to get liquid and get rid of this stuff before the end of the year so they can start new and work on their bonuses for the next year. There's going to be a lot of pressure. There's no urgency to chase things up unless there's an obvious drill-hole discovery in the making.
Well, he was right before about the huge 2011-2012 junior mining crash, caused by too much paper. So maybe he'll be right this time too?

All I know is, with all the financings that I've seen this month (SVL, PLG and KOR are three that have hit me personally), I am going to make damn sure that I write a few scheduled posts to remind me (and you if you care) to dump these stocks in February before those newly-printed shares come free-trading.

Why is it, by the way, that Austrian economist libertarian right-wing anti-debt Ron Paul loving goldbugs want to have anything to do with the junior gold miner/exploreco market? I mean, if you want to see profligate printing of money, look no further than the financings on the Venture exchange. Quit bitching about Barack Obama and start complaining about these companies who devalue their "currency" (the shares) by 10% or more a year!



* - you can tell I really like buying the companies that get rejected by the newsletter writers I follow... thus PLG, and also BTO and CXB.

SIL:FNV

I don't know what this means, but....


It seems Generalissimo Francisco Franco Nevada trades in a narrow range equal to the silver miners ETF.

midday comment with many charts




I was about to say "everything's back to normal", now that GDXJ is back above its short-term EMA....




But SLV still looks pretty weak, and definitely not out of the woods.

Still,



China looks rip-roarin' good,




JNK says risk-on is the right move,



US bonds are heading back down, and



people are exiting the safety of the US dollar.
Now as for the last 3, you could say that JNK is double-topping, IEF is going to bounce back off its channel bottom, and USD is simply double-bottoming.

But then you'd have to explain China.

Prepare to listen to a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth from permabears, folks!



Morning sitrep


BI - housing starts crush expectations. In a good way. US economy doing fine. This is bullish for PMs, because it means more money for Indian and Chinese PM buyers.

BI - Spain's yields down strongly. Also see FT Alphaville. At pixel time, Spain 10Y 5.45% and Italy 10Y 4.78%.

Bespoke - and yet, breadth is rolling over. So do you want to go with a coincident technical? Or do you want to go with the leading stats, above?

Beyond Brics - HSBC says the best EM markets are - Phillipines and Peru?!? Well, as long as their politicians don't screw everything up, right?


Tuesday, October 16, 2012

More news, and commentary thereof


BI - Now even George Soros is criticizing austerity. Seriously, the EU has to give up that bullshit idea and soon. And... when it does? Spain and Italy and Greece (yes, them too) see their economies take off, and their deficits go down as share of GDP.

FT Alphaville - Spain plays the winning hand. They're not going to ask for a bailout - just for a line of credit. Now the 10Y yield is 5.76%.

Hey, by the way - another interesting story I saw recently was that Greece is thinking of using its privatization money to buy back their bonds, which are trading at a deep discount to face value. This essentially would mean erasing debt at a discount to its original cost.

Ha! So does this now mean the racists in the EU core will have nothing to bitch about anymore? I mean, if the swarthy Mediterraneans pull a few clever moves like this, and then turn themselves around fast, it'll be a deathblow to the neocon fascists in Germany, Holland and Finland. (And my little neo-Nazi buddy in Austria.)

Of course, Greece has to first succeed at privatization.

FT Alphaville - meanwhile, now you have a property bubble in Germany. Ha! This will kill Deutschebank, when the bubble bursts.

And it will burst, because if the periphery can get back to profitability, then the ECB will see it has to increase interest rates - fuck Germany, after all; the job will be to keep the periphery from overheating.

Payback is a bitch, fuckers - since you don't bother to remember what happened to you when Prussia was exterminated by the advancing Red Army, you're going to be assigned remedial study.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Evening news


Some things you should be made aware of:

Kiron Sarkar - yesterday's update and today's update. Again, he's wrong on Greece leaving the Euro, but otherwise he's on my required reading list. In yesterday's episode, he joins Krugman and the IMF in screaming that austerity was a fucking stupid idea and it's about time something else happens. What do you think will happen when the politicians finally listen?

And by the way, "austerity" is never about austerity. That's why the Germans aren't requiring cuts to Eurozone military spending, or increases in corporate taxes, and why the austerians are against raising taxes on the rich to reduce the deficit. "Austerity" is only ever about eliminating government services for the poor, so that government is left only serving the rich. That's why it's a conservative policy.

Seriously, this goes back to Ronald Reagan. Read some fucking history or you'll get suckered again.

FT Alphaville - why iron ore is rebounding. Basically, steel mills have eaten through their inventories. Not bullish, but at least the stupider of supposedly forward-looking price signals has stopped freaking everyone out now.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the TAs are scared.

Dynamic Hedge - is bullish the market but thinks a trend change is underway.

JC Parets - rise in leverage points to higher stock prices. Bullish.

Dynamic Hedge - doesn't really know.

JC Parets - Dow/gold ratio is rolling over again. Bullish for gold, I guess? Ask Tanashian.

Charles Sizemore - why not try emerging market beer stocks? Sounds good to me.

New Yorker - very long article on corruption in Chinese rail. You have to read stuff like this to understand why you can no longer gauge the Chinese economy by luxury goods consumption. Basically, the oligarchs are getting killed off now. What a nice political system!

some charts


The common thread through these charts is this: are we only seeing a pullback in an intermediate trend, or are we about to experience a larger pullback that muddies the picture?


GDXJ: the snapback during the day was just an attempt to get back within the 2SD line. I'm not excited.

Interestingly, the EMA(50) looks like an intermediate trend governing line. See for example end of August. So is this all we will see for a drop in GDXJ? If that line gets broken the future might suddenly look a lot more dim, methinks.




Silver is so bad, it's failed out of the bollinger bands entirely. You could call this an oversold condition or you could call it the start of something vigorously nasty. Silver has in the past been a widowmaker, so I'll remain agnostic; though personally I doubt we're going to see a -10%/day waterfall in silver like we've done before because there are no warning signs in the liquidity indicators (e.g. LQD) or the emerging markets (e.g. EEM or FXI).

So maybe this is just a swap dealers' dump?

A 50% fib gives you a $30-$31 target.





Silvercrest is also 3SD out, it already blew out its governing intermediate EMA(65), and what's worse it's collapsed in the middle of a $2.55 financing - thus making a market price of $2.40 look especially bad. Can it drop all the way to $2.15-$2.00, do you think? I feel smug for selling on Friday.





Bear Creek is printing a big dagger. That tells me it's strong. Still, you think we could see $3.30? It'd be a bit silly to sell at $3.56 just to buy it back 8% lower. Unless you're a momo fliptrader like me.

By the way, Otto, here's what a momo fliptrader does with your stock recommendations:

- I sold my VEN for maybe $8.80 the day before Eike bought them out.
- I bought PGM the day before they got bought out for a 150% win.
- I completely missed out on Minefinders, I think.
- Probably same with Antares and Fronteer.

If you want to be a fliptrader like me, prepare to miss those big overnight 100% pops significantly more often. God knows what a fundie/value investor would want to fliptrade for, anyway.




Calibre Mining. HOLY GEEZ, WHY HAVEN'T YOU ALREADY BOUGHT TWENTY MILLION SHARES?!?!?*



* - this is not meant to be construed as investment advice, or an inducement to buy or sell securities.

A note, quick and smug

I smugly note that Friday afternoon I said "gee, I don't like how everything looks like it's rolling over", so I sold my OGC, BCM and SVL to get up to about 45% cash.

My wish list includes some SSL P and FNV warrants, as well as OGC again, BCM again, BTO, SVL again, maybe DPM, FVI, maybe more KOR, and possibly the AR warrants again if Jojo or Otto provide positive comment on their all-paper buyout of Prodigy Gold.

Nice when things work out. Now I just have to hold myself back from catching a falling knife.

I don't see why silver and gold should tank - looking at JNK, JNK:LQD, UUP, IEF, FXI and EEM there's really no risk-off/risk-on or liquidity or global slowdown reason. So maybe it's just down to the swap dealers being net short?

With no rational reason, I still accept that the market has a reason, and so maybe it's just down to the PMs wanting to get less overbought. So we'll give it a few days and see if we can get back into these stocks at cheaper prices than we sold them at - possibly 10-30% cheaper!

I'm up $23K already this month, so I should be able to tell myself to hold back and wait while things drop.

Oh look, someone just bought some Calibre Mining at 19 cents. That makes me feel good cos I still own my $30K of CXB - that and my FNV.WT.B are my 2 largest positions!