There's bearish news, and there's bullish news. First off though,
Economist - a nice story about the world of iron ore production. In case you're interested in learning about iron ore, so that you can avoid buying a sack of junk like Labrador Iron Mines.
Now for the bearish news:
Biiwii - silver's going to collapse! OMG! Aaaugh! Aaaugh! Thanks Gary, you just drove me to cash. Though to be fair, I've seen a bunch of my topped-out stocks start to fall back down (though admittedly in the case of PLG and SVL it was because of this fucking fad of October financings), and GT's $HUI 500 support level was broken, so I'm happy to get more cash and reposition for when the miners finish a little October correction. Which I think I might see. Already have a shopping list for when it comes.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - his gut feel is that the market is going bearish now. Quote:
Higher opens are also being faded, guys are talking about "the typical mid-morning sell-off," without realizing what a classic sign that is of a tired tape that's run out of firepower.And yet there's all this bullish news:
WSJ Marketbeat - dollar death cross may presage bull market for stocks. But of course, first we have to see stocks go bullish. And also, you gotta wait to make sure that the weak US dollar proves its correlation to stronger stocks - cos things might be different this time.
WaPo - US exporters are doing better than you think. With caveats - what and corn were down obviously (because the rest of the world didn't have a drought, just the US did), and exports got creamed as the European recession deepened.
FT Alpoville - the coming US housing boom. Roger Altman notes that US construction employment is down to a 1990s level, and the housing bubble didn't create an inventory bubble, only a price bubble. So, when housing gets back on its own two feet, it'll provide a strong support to the US economy.
Bespoke - China's broken out to the upside. In case you missed it.
FT Alphaville - Portugal getting better. Maybe people will stop freaking out about Spain and Italy and Greece and Cyprus and Slovenia when they see yet another country coming out from a collapse.
FT Beyond Brics - Poland realizes austerity is bullshit. Seriously, one thing those fucking cunt Germans hate is being shown up by Polaks. So when Poland's stimulus fires up their domestic economy, it'll be the end of this austerity bullshit in Europe.
Upside Trader - coal's forming a bullish bottoming pattern. In case, y'know, you missed it.
FT Alphaville - Citibank accepts the chances of Greek exit are down. And as far as I'm concerned, the chances are zero, since if Greece left the Euro (1) Germany wouldn't get paid for all the tanks and subs they just sold to Greece, and (2) Germans would no longer be able to buy Greek seaside villas. Give the idiots at Citi time to figure it out: these guys learn "economics" at school, not "political economics", so they have no clue about the political drivers of anything.
NY Times - Krugman says "I told you so". As he notes, austerity has driven the world back into the clutches of recession. Maybe this is bearish - after all, gloating by Krugman will just push the politicians back into the warm embrace of dictator-loving fascists like Hayek and Mises.
FT Beyond Brics - rich people in China, watch out. Long term this'd be bullish for China, since a reduction in corruption would mean more capital being assigned to productive endeavours and less going into the pockets of political thieves. And I find it telling that Chinese bloggers are even allowed to post about corruption - with the State's power over all media, this must mean that the Chinese party leadership must want the corruption stopped.
Oh, and by the way - the bit in that story about watches is funny. See, a few months ago the story came out that luxury watch stores in Hong Kong couldn't move inventory anymore; Westerners interpreted that as a sign of the Chinese economy collapsing, but all it really showed was that the ultra-rich no longer consider it wise to use luxury items as conspicuous status symbols.
That's why I was more interested in the bullish holiday week travel figures, and less on last week's reports of gloom and despair in Hong Kong and Macau. See, the rich (either in China or here) don't contribute a fucking thing to the economy: except of course for corruption, graft, and the end of democracy. It's the working class who need to benefit, in order for an economy to grow.
So in sum?
When I add up all the news above, I can accept the TA (and historical) case for a correction, but still think the medium trend is up.
So I'll take a small break from trading, protect my wins and my capital, and reposition for a big thrust in a couple weeks!