Saturday, September 15, 2012

Zach Weiner graduates from penis jokes to existential philosophy

Holy shit, this is a classic even for him.


How high does GDX go?

Someone in his weekly free letter suggested GDX can go to 57 before a correction.

So let's look at this weekly chart for GDX:


I find the chart very disconcerting because of all those crazy white weekly candles, all in a row. Now, I'm still a noob, so maybe long rows of white candles are normal? Or maybe they show extreme bullishness?

What is it that causes a lot of white candles all in a row?

Gold has little to do with inflation, but maybe since the entire US thinks it does, and the US thinks it's the only economy in the world, and the US thinks Bernanke's now given in to using inflation as an economic driver, then maybe the US market participants will be the ones to drive gold and the miners to da moon? And maybe that big row of white candles is the beginning of a real bubble in the miners?

The next bit depends on whether you agree with the market-psychological theory that GDX fell because people lost faith that gold was going to continue going up. If you're okay with that, then gold now continuing to go back up should force GDXJ way above 57, maybe when $GOLD hits a new high. GDX should then hurry back into the uptrend channel of 2009-10.

So what should we expect? Does GDX hit $57 (assuming this guy's right), then stay in a handle consolidation before breaking out when $GOLD breaks $2000? Is that what the script's going to be? Cos maybe gold doesn't stop going up these next few weeks, cos of the inflation worry of the Americans in the market.

Let's see $BPGDM:


OK, bullish at 67%. From a low of 6% before. Does that mean it needs to take a breather before going up more? Cos you can stay 100% on a bullish chart for a long time. That's what makes charts go up.

Or are we seeing right now one of those "flick a switch/binary mode" situations where the market is rapidly going from 100%-bearish-miners to 100%-bullish? I'd expect a long row of white candles if it was a flick-a-switch advance, instead of a gradual bull.

After all, everything was doom 2 months ago, and now everything is inflation forever, just the way the Caseys like it. The ECB, China and Bernanke did certainly get together and turn the market around 180 degrees. So everyone bearish the PM miners in July was absolutely wrong, so if they want to keep their jobs they have to quickly get unwrong.

What is there to make the GDX stop at $57? Only a drop in the price of gold, I'd think.

So, if you want to expect GDX to stop at $57, go ahead. I won't be surprised if it does, cos I've seen the oogity-boogity of TA turn out correct once in a while. And if it stops at $57, then maybe I'll just move a lot of money to cash for a while and take a holiday from trading. That would be nice.

But I'm not going to do that til I know that GDX has stopped at 57.

Cos what's different now from 2011 is (1) Bernanke's committed to higher inflation, (2) we now know gold's not done going up, (3) the market is now underweight PM miners.

I suspect those differences might be enough that $GDX could go to $80 before it stops.

Maybe it doesn't; but if it does I want to milk that bitch all the way up. I've got a lot of money to make back this year.

some weekend news for you, with extra commentary

FT Alphaville - Chinese corporate risk pretty significant. Like I've been saying, I really think The Next One will originate in China. They're piling debt on top of debt, and the Chinese corporate world is the apotheosis of incompetence, fraud, and deceit. I have no clue how this could possibly end well. I have never seen even the slightest hint, even from China permabulls, of how they expect China to get out from under their debt mountain.

A positive from this might be that it only tanks the US and world economy as bad as the Asian Tigers crisis did. So hopefully it only destroys China and leaves the West relatively unharmed.

You might want to look for a leveraged China mainland double- or triple-short ETF. Just in case.

Ritholtz - oopsie, durable goods are presaging a market collapse. He seems to think that the collapse in durable goods orders is what frightened the Fed into printing. When you look at Albert Edwards' chart of durable goods versus the SPY, you'll get a big fucking chill down your spine, let me tell you!

So is there an American recession coming after all? Or at least a crash, right around the corner? Is QE3 the last push before a collapse? Maybe it's what will avert the collapse! Maybe a US economic collapse is what will cause the Chinese collapse that has to come - after all, China's suffered this past year because Europe went into depression and the US was critically slow.

But as someone (no link, sorry, lost it) asserted this week, QE3 will do nothing to improve the US economy aside from some trickle-down effects: because you have to stimulate demand. Without demand, the economy won't grow. And low interest rates don't stimulate demand. You need something like Keynesian infrastructure-spending stimulus to create demand. Because it's the working class that comprises demand, dummies! And when you're forcing them all out of good jobs and making them work for minimum wage, obviously you're not going to have any demand!

BTW, has anyone in the right wing ever fucking heard of Henry Ford? Come on! He was an industrialist, and he was a Nazi sympathizer: Republicans should worship him! So why, then, do they ignore his call to pay workers a decent wage, in order to produce demand?

Anyway... the retort elsewhere (no link, sorry) was that QE3, by intentionally inducing inflation, will increase inflation expectations enough to force corporations to deploy their tons of cash into capex: after all, the best way to make the bean-counters replace their e.g. aged computer systems is to tell them they'll cost 10% more next year. And maybe the US problem is that there is money being made - it's just sitting on the sidelines, the way it does when there are deflationary expectations.

So maybe that's the demand that Bernanke's hoping to create? Maybe he's realized that that's all he will ever be able to do to stimulate the US economy, unless by some miracle Obama sweeps the House and Senate so that he can actually implement stimulative economic policies.

The assumption there is that Obama even gives a shit about the economy and jobs and the working poor. We certainly haven't seen any more than platitudes from him on those subjects. He did rule the House and Senate already, and you Dems got jack squat out of it didn't you.

Back to the topic though - durable goods vs SPY produces a scary chart. But we've seen scary charts before. The problem with drilling down into esoteric indicators (i.e. anything beyond GDP and money supply) is that that indicator is not the economy.

So, for example, the Harpex, $BDI, and rail traffic have looked horrible for a long time. But those aren't the US economy. They're coincident and they have only fractional correlation. And their level of correlation also changes drastically over time because of developments in their fields, and fuck I shouldn't have to explain this to you.

Durable goods is definitely closer to the core of the economy that the Harpex. But still, while it's a scary chart, we should maybe wait til the S&P pukes 20% before we get worried, eh? And I think we shouldn't see that til after the 2012 election.

Beyond Brics: Prague's self-destructive austerity. Wanna see why reducing deficits through austerity is impossible? Look to the Czech Republic. The illustration is hilarious. They want to get the deficit down to 3% of GDP; but to do that, they strangle the economy, thus reducing GDP, thus boosting their deficit back above 3% GDP.

Fuck, dude. Anyone who doesn't get this failed grade 6 math where they introduced fractions.

And so why are they doing it? They want to be more German than the Germans. So they take the dumbest ideas ever propounded by a German, and try to beat the Germans at their own pig-headed stupidity. So in this case they want to be better at austerity than even Merkel.


Austerity has worked only once that I know of - in Canada under Paul Martin. And let me tell you, we suffered for several years til things started to get better. And it was luck that got us better. And - by the way - now, the fast-spending mental midget Harper has dumped us back into an unsustainable deficit situation again.


FT Alphaville - About that flight of Spanish deposits. I don't understand the article, since it's written in City of London Speak. It seems to suggest that the "flight of deposits" is mostly an artefact of the Spanish bank accounting system, and the bit of flight that is really happening is mainly corporations transferring to German banks. My god, if only they knew that it's the German banks that are fundamentally insolvent!

What a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to warp our worldview to make it consistent with a neoconservative Austrian-school libertarian ideology! Gets you into all kinds of trouble. Keep that bullshit out of your head when watching the markets. Stay fixed on reality. It's out there.

Friday, September 14, 2012

Newsbits

Butt & Wood: Why the shale gas play is for the US only. And people don't get that this (mainly) geological quirk will be a game-changer: the US has cheap power for the next 100 years now, while everyone else will get strangled by the other energy commodities. Let's just hope they don't elect the next fucking Hitler.

Bespoke: Breadth finally makes a higher high. There. So shut the fuck up about the breadth indicators. If you were trading by the breadth indicator you'd have lost the last 10% in gains. Breadth indicator is coincident and not predictive. There's your lesson. Learn from it. Then shut the fuck up some more. Also see JC Parets' article Net New Highs Are Soaring. Then continue to shut the fuck up.

JC Parets again: rule #1 of the market is when you're losing money, you're wrong. Stop being wrong.


Toronto Resource Investment Conference Sep 27-28 - my itinerary

The TRIC itinerary seems to be pretty much completed now, so I should see what I'm interested in.

Thursday:

Not really interested in the first panel.

Since Grandich's talk is "Why Gold is in the “Mother” of All Gold Bull Markets" I already know what he's going to say: the America-hating muslim negro is devaluing the dollar, so gold will go up til Jesus returns. Nothing about... y'know... reality. So I can take a pass on seeing him.

There's a panel with a guy from GATA, Berwick's little buddy Vin Maru, and Jay Taylor. Chaired by Peter Grandich. I guess I can skip that. The dialogue writes itself.

I have no idea who David Graham is.

So basically, I have no reason to be there til 11AM, when I could be fanboi for Brent Cook, whose topic is going to be "ask my opinion of your favourite exploreco and I'll grimace, pause, and then say something noncommital (and especially non-litigable)".

No corporate presentations are interesting to me.

Wow. There really is nothing of interest on Thursday, aside from Brent. So do I go all the way to Toronto just to see him? Maybe hang around for John Kaiser at 1:00? Meh.

Friday:

8:30, Brent starts off the day with his "Turning rocks into money" presentation, which I've already seen several times. Then again, maybe it's worth seeing again, just to remind myself. But since it's a late day for me (see below), I'll probably skip it.

Lawrence Roulston is on at 9:30 with "Looking at the Big Picture in Metals", which might be good, I dunno. Can't remember what Roulston's like.

At 11, Eric Coffin presents on "Advantages of Investing in Mid Tier Gold Producers", might be worth seeing. I'd probably definitely be in Toronto by then.

For corporate presentations? Meh... Argonaut, maybe. Everything else in the morning is a joke (my god, does Slam Exploration still exist?).

Michael Berry does a thing with behavioural strategies for investing, and his talk at 1:00 is "Selecting Winners - Avoiding Losers in These Economic Time: Examples". That sounds good. And Kaiser's doing "The Shift from Resource Feasibility to Discovery Exploration" at 2:00 which also sounds good.

At 3:00, Mickey Fulp does "Q and A on Junior Resource Stocks", which might be good (as long as it's not all graphite-this and graphite-that); but this other guy Benj Gallander is on at the same time, doing a talk on "How Contrarians Can Make Excellent Money in Commodities", and that actually sounds interesting.

Then Thomas Drolet does a talk on "Uranium Supply/Demand Balance over the next 5 years and Resultant Investment Opportunities", which I'm interested in. Then at 4:00, the guy Otto from IKN affectionately calls "yer little kissin' buddy" does his talk.

Exhibitors:

Meh, nothing much there for stocks. Still wonder about Soltoro, they were originally supposed to be this awesome silver play, then the anal yst who covered them kinda dropped them.

Otherwise, maybe I'll just go and visit a few of the zine publishers. Pick up a free copy of Northern Miner. That "Contra the Heard" newsletter sounds interesting from their description, might want to chat with that guy. Mickey's got a booth - maybe his nose gets into a fight again? Gee, I hope I'm there to watch! Maybe this time Mickey brings his guns. Don't take no shit, Mickey!

Summary:

So I can definitely be there Friday, from 9:30 (or 11) til 4:30. 9:30's probably more convenient as I can take the morning train - it's a nice train ride to Union, and then it's easy to get to the subway from there.

There seems to be insufficient reason for me to go there on Thursday. Unless maybe someone wants to buy me beer. Though there's not much to choose from nearby - you'd think being across from Osgoode Hall there'd be a load of nice posh pissers, but really it looks like there's sweet f.a. down there.

Anyone know somewhere good to go for lunch around the Sheraton?

US bonds about to cliff-dive?


Don't jump! Think of all you have to live for!

What's the opposite of "blue sky"? How about "black void"?

Universe took a big bong hit

Well, so while the PMs haven't moved since yesterday, apparently the base metals have flown up, and now the GDXJ is reacting like it's a base metal miner ETF. I.e. it no longer tracks silver.

I'm happy. Everything I own is up. Except Lupaka. OK, so everything good is up.

Even my CXB position is in the green, and yesterday CXB exhibited some strange volume that looks positive (that is, people wanted to buy it all of a sudden - dunno if it correlates to a sudden burst of cellphone usage on site, perhaps by the guys doing the soil sampling - but it's nice to own a stock that people all of a sudden want to buy).

So where do we go now?

Frankly, now's the point where I turn into Gary Tanashian. Except in my case, I'm not seeing waring sings in charts, I'm seeing it in the (drum roll) market narrative. Here's why.

Look, the story for the past god-knows-how-long was that Europe was doomed, China was landing hard, and the US was in recession. What's changed now?

Europe
- the Dutch re-elected their existing government and gave them a slim majority - this avoided a core Euro country being taken over by Euroskeptics;
- the German constitutional court said the ESM could proceed;
- Merkel has been persuaded by German businessmen to change her hard tack, now that Germany itself has entered a severe recession (trust me, it'll be a fucking crippler);
- the ECB has committed itself to a sterilized short-end peripheral bond purchase program, which hasn't actually started yet since Spain hasn't yet applied for a bailout - but as you can see, all you need is the threat and the bond vigilantes back off.

China
- the Chinese central command announced 1T yuan or something of stimulus - which was already happening anyway, and it's supposed to be funded by insolvent regional Chinese banks, so it only makes things worse, but anyway;
- Iron ore stopped collapsing, and that means China's fixed now or something.

USA
- Bernanke stopped holding out and gave the market its crack. US didn't need QE3, they need Keynesian stimulus in the form of government-funded construction (e.g. road repair and airport redesigns); but the market gets its crack now.

Look at all that, above.

Now tell me what psychological upside is left.

Exactly. None.

So I'm still happy to hold on to my junior miners while they continue to go up. They were beaten down for a long time, they have a lot of upping to do to get back to where they were. And maybe PMs can continue to go up for a while.

But I really feel uneasy about committing new capital to anything. To a laggard, maybe; I'd still like to free up some cash in my RRSP to double down on Molycorp since it's acting nice now.

And maybe there are some juniors that I puked before, who I might unpuke now (maybe YMI or SWD - though then again I don't want to be buying stocks that haven't stopped going down so they better damn well shape up and soon). Maybe there are a few explorecos with imminent results that I can pick up. That sort of thing.

But broadly speaking, now is when I start to hover the mouse over the sell button more.

Fuzzbox - Love is the Slug

Here's Fuzzbox, from the 80s, and "Love is the Slug".



Had such a wicked crush on Maggie & Vix when I was a youngster. Then I ended up with a girlfriend who actually was a punk rock girl, and looked like the two of them. And... it turned out not to be a panacea.



Thursday, September 13, 2012

Opinion on today?

Well, I guess Bernanke is doing QE3, since everyone's calling it that.

Both BI and the Borker have used the term "game-changer". Borker also said "it's not about 'stocks or bonds' anymore - it's about 'which stocks?'"

Biiwii put up a chart showing how silver tripled the last time someone pooped QE out of Jackson's Hole.

And as you can see I've been so busy watching stocks go up that I haven't gotten past the 'B' section in my RSS reader.

And of course silver shot up to $34.50 and actually stayed there.

So I guess this fall us junior mining fruitcakes will be able to make back some of that money we spent the last two years losing!

Hooray!

Andrew Swarthout from Bear Creek at Denver Gold

And here is the link to Andrew Swarthout from BCM, doing a Denver Gold webcast, talking mainly about Corani, and saying "look, the Peruvians haven't killed me! Don't be scared!"

An important little fundie clue comes at around 12 minutes, when Swarthout says he thinks they can fund 40% of Corani construction through zinc and lead offtake agreements with smelters.

Also, "BCM shareholders own 5.4 ounces of silver per share." Between that and his little dig at MAG (who have hardly any silver compared to BCM), he does hit the bullet points necessary for selling.

He's also very charming in his assertion that he gets Santa Ana back. Cue Otto....

Sweet Mephistopheles, that's a lot of webcasts!

As a matter of fact, all the Denver Gold Forum webcasts are viewable via this link.

That is far more webcast than any person could ever handle watching.

Let's see what I've found so far:

Agnico-Eagle, Almaden, Argonaut, Atac, Avion, B2 of course, Barrick, Bear Creek, Carpathian, Buenaventura, Coeur d'Alene, Corvus, Dundee... aw ferget it, I'm not going to list them all for you. Just call Dial-A-Bru, order a case of beer, receive delivery of beer, go to the link and watch all night.

Clive Johnson is handsome, wealthy, and a natural genius

I know I'm all fanboyish over Clive Johnson from BTO. It probably looks funny, but after all he is a great leader, perspicacious, and able to make fruit trees blossom in winter.

So here is a link to the 2012 Denver Gold Forum presentation by Clive of BTO. With video and everything.

Now go buy 20 million shares of CXB. Cos he already did, and if you just do what Clive does you'll go far in life.

UPDATE: OK I've watched it now, and it's a definite must-see. Yes, he talks about how awesome BTO is; he also (around 3:40) spends a few second talking about how awesome CXB is. But the last 5 minutes are Clive talking about the state of the junior market today - and there he's fantastic.

Daniela interviews people

Here's Daniela at the Denver Gold Forum with Quinton Hennigh, who looks far too young to be retired (but I guess that's what EVG does to you):



And here she is with Brent Cook:



And in summary, the basic idea that they both propound here is that there is a shocking lack of deposits worth buying.

And since we're mining out fucktons of gold, that means we can't replace any of it. Cos there are no deposits that will replace them. So ceteris paribus, gold should continue going up.

Though of course that means that the crappy deposits, presently unloved by Brent & Quinton, will eventually become very attractive deposits. So maybe Livengood gets bought when gold hits $3000/oz.

Of course that might be a while from now so there's no need to buy Tower Hill just yet.

It'd be nice actually to read the reports that they mention - Cookie's writeup on the attractive deposits, and Kaiser's apparently Wagnerian opus on the 1500 junior miners and how many will be left alive in a year.

So if anyone wants to forward me those reports, for free of course....

Also, if all you Daniela groupies out there pay attention to the bloody preview panes for these videos, you've just got your answer, so you can quit searching my frickin' blog.

Silver will do something at 12:30 and again at 2:15

Today's fed announcement will happen at 12:30. The presser is at 2:15.

As we've already noted, all algos have been programmed with a piece of code which reads like this:


if (Bernanke.beard) - (microphone) = (<3 inches);
   call (puke.all.silver);
   if (silver.not.down.by) 5%;
      call (puke.more.silver);
   endif
   call (puke.more.silver);
endif
if (world.really.hasnt.ended.2.minutes.later);
   call (buy.back.all.silver.for.no.reason);
   call (report.profit.back.to.lizard.people.overlords.at.Bohemian.Grove);
endif

So what do you think the odds are that we get a couple really, really stupid trading opportunities today?

Is the safer way to maybe just watch silver, as it goes whichever way, and then once it's done reacting, you just take a contrary position? Cos silver and gold could even spike up, if Bernanke decides that the US needs more stimulus.

In either case, nothing Bernanke does today should really have any effect on dwindling gold and silver reserves, increase in Asian bullion demand, or whether Pascua Lama ever actually is put into production. I'd think those have more real effect on gold and silver than anything some idiot says - despite the existence of a large number of other idiots who really do feel gold is all about the Treasury yield and inflation and stuff.

Anyway. I doubt I'll take part in trading, as my cash is down to $14K. Can't do much with that.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Doesn't matter what the press says about corn

It really doesn't matter what the news says. Or what the fundamentals are. Or what you think.



Cos right now CORN looks like it'll be going down.




Variegated newsgasm

FT Alphaville - Is the iron ore panic over? Couple days old, sorry, I've been working for a living.

BI - upcoming regional war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Yeah, that Lydian Gold looks real good right now....

Spargel - "Greece should become a Special economic Zone". Translation: now that Greece is poor, The Fourth Reich can use them for slave labour.

But in all seriousness, here are some quotes that will give hints about the info you're not getting from the right-wing American press.

On Spain and Italy: "...as far as trade balances, especially growth in exports, and unit labor costs are concerned, things are slowly getting better across the board."

The right wing's fear: "at the moment, (Germany's) economy is still doing well, but what's going to happen in the next few months?"

Spargel - a very candid interview with Helmut Schmidt and Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. Some real stunner quotes from two former leaders who actually fucking remember Germany's history. Here's a whole section for you:

Schmidt: If I may, I would like to make a basic observation: The reconstruction of postwar Germany was possible at first thanks to the Americans and, to an increasing extent after 1950, to the Europeans, primarily the French. The European Coal and Steel Community was established in 1952, and the Élysée Treaty on German-French cooperation was signed 11 years later. Both came about as the result of French initiatives. The Germans benefited from the global situation and from their neighbors' solidarity, which was not granted out of selflessness, but rather out of necessity. After 1945, they could not allow the formation of areas of extreme poverty in the heart of Europe. And today the Germans, for their part, are in a position where they can -- and must -- pay. And they should embrace this. It first needs to be explained to the German people, however. But this is not happening -- at least not to a sufficient extent. [me: exactly, because Austrain-school right-wing politicians don't care about doing what's best for the world! That's socialism!]
SPIEGEL: Who has to explain it?
Schmidt: The chancellor, the German president and the governing parties in the Bundestag.
SPIEGEL: They would respond that they are making every possible effort. And that includes Sigmar Gabriel, the chairman of your own center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).
Schmidt: Some of them are doing it a bit, including Mr Gabriel, who you mentioned. The chancellor is doing very little (to explain the situation to the German people). The conservative group in the Bundestag is hardly doing it. The (influential mass-circulation) Bild newspaper is not doing it at all.
Giscard: Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer made this effort because they could vividly remember the war. Helmut and I did so likewise. (Former German Chancellor) Helmut Kohl and (former French President) François Mitterrand as well. Then it somehow stopped. The postwar consumer generation [me: I think he means the new Austrian-school right-wing business-owned politicians like Merkel and Sarkozy] didn't care about it. They had no interest in it. We have to return to a simple, fundamental idea: European integration, the European merging process, has to take place in the euro zone. France and Germany are the driving force behind this. All of this is feasible; none of it exceeds human capabilities.

Also a bit of a jab at the idiocy of mixing up the EU and the EMU - e.g. giving a vote on monetary policy to fuckwads like England and Sweden, who refuse to be part of the Euro currency union and really are only in it for the trade benefit.

They are still just two old men talking about how the young whipper-snappers are doing it all wrong; but then again, the young whipper-snappers are quite visibly doing it all wrong and maybe the Germans (among others) should start listening to their elders.


Woopsie!

Silver just pooped a lung.

GDXJ is pooping a lung too. Yet gold's not down.

Meh, my stocks are looking solid for now.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Franco Nevada versus gold


Franco Nevada has pulled back, but is still in an uptrend channel relative to price of gold.

It is what it is, I guess.

Monday, September 10, 2012

Various news objects


BI - so, the Germans destroyed the Greek economy with cheap credit, then forced them into an economic depression. Now the Germans are buying up loads of cheap Greek real estate. No shit, eh?

FT Alphaville - Two different blurbs on George Magnus' latest musings on Asia. One: Asia's growth is stifled by structural and political factors that reduce total factor productivity. Two: Asia's growth will lose out to American & European superiority in automation. Having been forced to work with Chinese engineers, I see this at the micro level every day.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - Angela Merkel, doing what he knew she'd do: save her ass by saving Greece. Josh did indeed see thru all the bullshit on that one.

James Bianco - the rally isn't really hated despite what Ritholtz says. Frankly I'm with Ritholtz and consider his other contributors to be varying degrees of worthless, save Kiron Sarkar of course. But fine to read a dissenting opinion.

FT Alphaville: some dude at UBS doesn't really believe the China stimulus is real/beneficial/a thing.

BI - every anal yst is bullish now.

Known communist "Washington's Blog" - QE hurts everyone except the ultra-rich. Which we knew already. Who the fuck do you think runs the US, guy? The fucking IWW?

BI - Soros criticizing Germany for being cunts again. Too easy, George. You're just mailing it in now.




gaps need filling


Awful lot of gaps need filling here.


This one looks even worse. Then again, SLV is based on the price of silver, which trades 22.5 hours a day, so there aren't really any gaps here.

Still, fact remains, both have done stellar work this past while, can't expect them to go up forever, can we?

Let's check in on that whole Eurodoom thing


For those naysayers, who are mostly American Austrian-school ultraconservative libertopians, who... well... are saying "nay" to the possibility of Draghi's OMT programme accomplishing anything, explain this:

Italy 10-year yield is now 5.16%.
Spain 10-year yield is now 5.64%.

That's a 1.5 point difference from a few weeks ago when Europe was teetering at the precipice. Supposedly teetering.

The chart is the chart. The facts are the facts. It is what it is.

Now shut up.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Base metals mining leveraged ETF


There's a nice Canadian play for anyone who seriously thinks we're in for a bull run in mining.

I know it's up at its upper bollinger already, but maybe it's about to do the same thing that some stocks like Primero have been doing for weeks now?

You could wait for this to pull back, but then again, who says it ever will?

Two interesting news articles for you


Business Insider - Merkel is getting ready to cave in on Greece

No surprise there. This was already predicted: as Joe Wiesenthal notes, "It's worth noting that Merkel is getting flexible at a time when the German export workhorse is slowing down, thanks to the depression in the countries surrounding it."

Germans are always happy to be hard-asses until their own survival is at stake, at which point they cave in to save themselves. Do you think that Merkel's buddies in business and finance, who profited from Eurozone integration, will all of a sudden want to turn their backs on profit?

So predictable. And I bet if the depression in Germany continues, we might even see a countercyclical Keynesian stimulus program to encourage economic growth.

Grope and Flail - Silvercorp critic caught in campaign by police

I guarantee you Silvercorp is worth zero, and Alfred Little were entirely correct in their assessment. However, the Chinese local government officials, bankrolled and aided by Silvercorp directly, are now arresting anyone in their reach who was part of the investigation.

#1, Silvercorp should immediately be delisted in Toronto, as the article notes. #2, why the fuck would you invest in any Chinese company whatsoever? I mean, if insightful analysis is met with imprisonment, what does that do for the transparency that you need for rational and safe investment?

I mean seriously, why not just invest in a pinksheet-listed gold exploreco?

UPDATE: for a refresher, here's the Grope & Flail's article from September 2011, and here (couldn't let this be left unlinked) is the original Alfred Little writeup where the damning info is provided.