Saturday, September 8, 2012

Special Saturday edition of Friday Videos - Starless by King Crimson

Holy fuck, isn't the internet awesome.

Seriously, the internet is fucking awesome.

Conversely, modern television is the absolute opposite of fucking awesome.

Oh well... they're going to go out of business, who cares.

Some recent SMBC cartoons I enjoyed.

And on top of that....

And also....

A few news pieces

Ritholtz - why is the market going up? Interesting answer: because when it was going up in the summer, the people who were supposed to be participating weren't participating. Now they have to pile in and buy just to keep themselves from looking like losers.

Ritholtz again - the sell-side indicator seems to say things still have a long way to run. In support of the previous link.

Keep both of those in mind when some technical analyst asserts that the market is topped out and has to turn down, okay?

The Dimplomat - are Chinese banks hiding the mother of all debt bombs? Every single emerging market growth story fueled by debt has ended in a crash. Every single one. Thus my suspicion that the third crash of this secular bear (and there are always three, apparently) is going to be caused by China.

Friday, September 7, 2012

Afternoon commentary, and an aside

More commentary....

US dollar drops back down. Fear must be leaving the system.

There never was any fear in the junk market.

Now for some crazy reason, industrial metals look better. So no, it's not short-covering. It really looks like China's been fixed all of a sudden, or something, god only knows.

And just as an aside:

This is why Ross Beaty's richer and more handsome than you. As well as those other one-hit-wonder so-called geniuses Eric Edwards and John Black. After all, whose chart is doing the sucking right now?

Friday videos - inpsirational music for you

I'm writing this a week ahead of time, but I'm absolutely sure the junior miners have taken off like crazy.

So here's the Flying Lizards, with "Money":

Hold on a mo....

This doesn't look right....

Why did Vale and Peabody go up these past 2 days?

Do the met/thermal coal and iron ore markets get fixed simply by Draghi doing a sterilized bond purchase program and the US putting out a slightly less terrible jobs report?

Do they get fixed enough for both the above stocks to rally 15%?

Or did something just happen in China?

Or is the argument that Draghi's OBP or whatever will drag the Eurozone out of recession, and that'll fix China?

This looks interesting.

Two Nevada Copper newses!

Nevada Copper goes to China. I don't think China's going to buy any major copper/iron mines in Nevada any time soon.... The conservation stuff in the second part seems more interesting, considering Reid was demanding a conservation area before he signed off on the conveyance.

Nevada Copper adds 1.1 billion pounds of resource. That's a little more important.

comment on the preopen - more skyrocketing in gold and silver today

And here I thought, after losing $1700 last night, that we'd see a few days of correction in gold....

And similarly, after losing $32.50 in China overnight, with silver....

Instead, I guess the party continues.

Geez, and here I am with $20-$30K in cash....

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Evening news and commentary

Turd Ferguson - no I haven't started reading him again. I just figured "hey, why not see how much he's gloating now that silver's at $32.50?"; turns out he's warning everyone that the gold & silver CoTs are at an extreme last seen before major price beatdowns. (Yes, if you click through it won't make your head hurt, it's actually a useful post for what it is.)

Will this time be different? Will silver and gold manage to drive up higher? I sense something's different in the air this time; certainly if the survivalist silverbug crowd is looking for a collapse at a measly $32.50, then it's just yet another example of a market advancing on fear and dread. And anyway... silver didn't drop below $25 despite the entire world getting out of the spec market.

JC Parets - hey, gold is going up.

Beyond Brics - India's about to cut its diesel subsidy. In case you didn't know, the subsidized fuels are one reason India's got a brutal trade & budget deficit. (Gold importing is the other.) Unfortunately, cutting the subsidy will also leave less money for poor people to buy... you know... gold. This will be interesting - a degraded fundamental! Let's see what happens!

Beyond Brics again - did you know Hungary's a clusterfuck and Viktor Orban is a fruitcake? Then again, Hungary's nominal 2011 GDP was half that of Greece, so from a market watcher's perspective, who cares? I only present it to illustrate that there were many many countries that were only let into the Eurozone to make money for Deutschebank and the German arms manufacturers.

Or do I have to remind you that Greece has had to cut its budget mercilessly, except for defense spending where they're still buying loads of tanks from Germany to protect themselves against Albanian invasion? Or something?

Total Trading - 5 apps every investor must have. I already have Bloomberg, which has a nice news feed and gives me bond info (Spain 10Y below 6% tonight, btw). I have no clue how to run StockTits, but maybe I'll install the Yahoo Finance app tonight and see what happens.

BCLund - are you making your trading too complicated? For me, the answer was "yes", and so I've drastically cut on my "news" feeds - a lot of it is bullshit opinion anyway. Now I try to keep my eyes on just 2 or 3 things - right now it's the S&P, PM & GDXJ action, and the US dollar. Oh, and China and iron ore (one thing really).

Lots of interesting news articles for you

Barrons - The "Smallatility Indicator" - basically a $VIX for the R2K. Apparently it leads the broader market. Doesn't look like it to me though. Let's follow it for a while, no?

Bespoke - commodity snapshot. Gold and silver are overbought and 3-sigma up, but considering they're coming off bottoms and moving up with strengbth, how much do we really have to be concerned?

Allstar Charts - Do we need to see some net new highs? Yeah, the $USHL is diverging from the $SPX; then again, it takes months of divergence before you see a top. I am unconvinced.

Bespoke - only one third of investors are bullish. And this with a new high! Therefore, the broad market can still go up for a while.

ETF Trends - the gold ETF added $2B in inflows this month. Really seems like the USA is driving gold demand now, not India.

ETF Trends - some really awesome new miner ETFs are coming onstream. There's a junior silver ETF, SILJ, coming out; but in addition, and more importantly to me, there's a mining services ETF, MSXX, and that one will be something I want to look at. No, I won't buy Joy Global, but I'd like to follow the charts for the smaller companies, and so I'll be opening this up to look for something interesting and non-Chinese.

Beyond Brics - Oopsie! There's a cash crunch in emerging Asia! I told you - the next crash isn't going to be Europe, it's going to be the death spiral of China. Thankfully it still might take a year to play out.

That should give you a good idea of what's our sitrep right now.

I remain very long, but also I keep pulling money out of winning short-term (1-day) trades - e.g., bought RIO for $4.77 yesterday, sold for $4.95 today. Want to keep $20-$30K in cash at all times.

This is because, while some stocks (like Primero and Argonaut) are really frickin' running away, others (like BTO and DPM) don't seem to want to move, and are very noncommittal. It's a mixed market for juniors, despite the massive upmoves in the PMs, and so I want to stay nimble. Is the easy money already made? Maybe it's still to come; but I won't bet my entire wad on it.

Keep an eye on your headspace and timing!

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Paul Harris on Colombian explorecos

Gold Report today has an interview with Paul Harris, on explorecos in Colombia.

Since the only 5 readers I have left are probably people who read IKN anyway, it'll probably be a nice light read for all of you.

Not much in detail, but he does provide mention a few of the companies covered, nothing of depth, and some commentary on the Colombian mining scene in general, which I'm sure will be either agreed with or mocked mercilessly by you-know-who.

I certainly didn't see him plugging Seafield at all.

Morning news

- I don't care about FB, but I care about Mark Cuban. And he offfers one huge bitch-slap to anyone who complains about their stock performance.

Here's a big long quote for you:

Whose job is it to help manage the portfolios of FB investors? If an investor doesn’t manage their own portfolio, the brokers who sold them the stock are responsible. That is their job. It’s their job to read the prospectus if you as an investor are too lazy to do so. It is the job of the broker to help the investor understand the value of the company and make a buying decision. No question that there are a lot of brokers out there that did not do their jobs.

As far as traders who bought the stock hoping for a pop: No one cares about them. Seriously. You trade, you know you are going to lose on trades. That is how things work.

I bought and sold Facebook shares as a trade, not an investment. I lost money. When the stock didn’t bounce as I thought/hoped it would, I realized I was wrong and got out. It wasn’t the fault of the Facebook CFO that I lost money. It was my fault. I know that no one sells me shares of stock because they expect the price of the stock to go up. So someone saw me coming and they sold me the stock. That is the way the stock market works. When you sit at the trading terminal you look for the sucker. When you don’t see one, it’s you. In this case it was me.

Damn right, bitches!

- Here's yet more bad news for Vale: several billion in tax liabilities. God, they suck! Then again, here's Fitch's opinion on Vale.

- $100 billion in Aussie mining projects are getting the chop. Among them, Olympic Dam.

- Zikomoletter has a good article on market & trading psychology. Here's an excerpt:

Have you ever stopped out at the bottom of a move and had the market trade right back up? I have, many times. It is incredibly frustrating. You say “Oh man, I can’t believe I stopped out at the bottom. If only I could have held on a little longer.”

But here is the thing: you have the logic the wrong way around. You did not stop out at the bottom. It was the bottom because you stopped out. If you had not stopped out, that would not have been the bottom: the market would have kept on moving against you until you stopped out. It was searching for the pain of the weakest, and today it was you.
- Azerbaijan and Armenia: tensions rise, countries drift towards war. Yeah... so... that Lydian investment looks really good right now.

Is the PM & juniors complex toppy?


$BPGDM has corrected strongly, and its RSI really is close to no-man's land. Then again, $BPGDM is still only at 46.

The above is also a weekly chart, so any countertrend could be a week or two away.

And sector breadth is positive, but we knew that cos it's going up.

I don't see how the Rydex assets can be considered even remotely bullish just yet. Then again, that's a very long-term chart; I guess all it means is that in the very long-term, PMs should go up from here.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Good day in all

Well, one of my stocks went up 25% today, right after I bought it. Can't tell you which one cos it's one of Jojo's picks (well - not a pick, but something he personally owns), so you'll just have to go and buy a subscription to his service or something.

Anyway, nice to see yet another good day in the juniors, especially with the $SPX still doing nothing - and the $INDU and $TRAN looking awful damn bad.

Then again, looking at it now, maybe it's just backing off before another upmove. July resistance is now support.

I dunno. You guys know I just make this shit up, right?

Here are some news picks for y'all:

- Is this why Vale's tanking? They can't ship ore to China cos China's banned their big ships. Well, I don't own it, it's just on my radar is all; I'm sure the world will need iron ore again one day. Hey, if VALE and MCP struggle through to next March, I'll have something to buy after I puke up all my gold miner stocks the day before PDAC! Awesome!

- Meanwhile, supply/demand for iron ore in China is all higglety-pigglety. Maybe we're going to see an iron & steel crash similar to the big silver puke of 2008 (or so) (can't be bothered to look it up)?

- JC Parets has a very scary candle chart for the &SPX. Then again, a) we're all expecting September to be terrible for equities, and b) I'm sure there are other people out there like JC Parets with at least one functioning eye and access to I'm not dissing him, he's still on my reading list after all; I'm only saying it's awful funny to get so many bad candles and not see the market collapse.


With all the to-da-moon going on in the PMs today, this looks disconcerting:

Why is Caterpillar going down? Really really fast?

Monday, September 3, 2012

Market closed but I still can't shut my mouth

No trading can be done on the markets today, but even still, and possibly because of that....

What if gold breaks $1700 today on Asia/Europe trading, and silver breaks $32? Looks possible and nearby. Well, assuming people really do only come back to work after Labour Day, I'm wondering if they might feel that they really need to rush back into the PMs and miners, first thing, eh?

I really love these times when anal ysts are providing sober year-end price estimates that then get taken out in days. 

I guess it's going to be a very busy trading week for me. Pity my poor employer who's paying me $32/hr to do other things than trading junior miner stocks!

In other news, I found it interesting and weird that Alice Tsang from Marquest really really likes Molycorp (down 90% from high, but supposedly bringing their REE mine into production now) and Copper Mountain (down from $8 to $2.62, she thinks it's bottomed at $2.50), and pays attention to Labrador Iron Mines (a $110 cash cost iron miner that will have to shutter if iron ore keeps collapsing).

I think I'll avoid LIM in favour of watching VALE, but the other two are being added to my own personal watchlist. I guess the idea is that someday they'll start going up, and when they do, I can play the momo game - which after all makes you money when things are actually going up, right?

Anyway... off to play computer games all day, since after all it's a holiday.

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Why not watch some BNN?

Here's a few BNN snippets for you:

George Gero, Sr VP Global Futures at RBC spoke on Friday about his outlook for gold. He seems likeable, and very old, so maybe he's worth listening to? - I refuse to trust the blather of any commodity commentator under 50. As far as Gero, he makes a lot of sense to me, aside of course from his theory that stimulus will result in inflation. He has valuable commentary on the open interest, and on a possible piling-in once gold closes above $1700.

And then, just if you're into that sort of thing, Alice Tsang from Marquest was on Market Call on Friday. Chatting about mining stocks, and someone mentioned Silvercrest and she liked it, so that's okay.

Sunday comment - survivalists and end-times goons, what they don't want you to know

Got as far as page 3 of GT's newsletter and decided I just had to post something.

ON page 3 it says:

"Though the doomsayer websites (and emailers) would have us squatting in our homes with shotguns out the front windows at the ready for attacks by everyone from dispossessed former McMansion owners to government death squads[...]"

No. That's not it.

The doomers have always had a specific reason in mind, for loading up on firearms. It's always been the same, but more recently they've begun censoring their message to keep themselves from looking too bad.

The real reason you load up on firearms is not to protect yourself from the Satanic UN Army; as the brilliantly funny Jim Wright at Stonekettle Station points out, the "UN Army" is made up of 16 light infantry from Tuvalu and a logistics battalion from Estonia. And maybe a medic from Malta when he can get time off work. The "UN Army" would never even be able to conquer Long Island.

And I don't even know what the "dispossessed former McMansion owners" bit is about.

It's also not to protect yourself during the end times and coming Rapture, because nobody really believes any of that Christian eschatological horseshit. They don't since otherwise they'd act Christian once in a while, and maybe even read their fucking bible and find out what's really in it instead of learning their religion off the internet and some fucktard itinerant preacher who never even went to a real seminary.

The reason behind the whole load-up-on-guns-ammo-and-canned-goods thing is this:

The entire survivalist/armed militia scene has, as its subtext, the idea of preparation for a coming race war, where blacks (controlled by Jews) attempt to exterminate White people.

That was the admitted reasoning back in the 40s and 50s; since then, they've had to speak in more and more code, hiding more and more of the original narrative, since it's become less acceptable to use the typical white racist talking points.

So now, instead of "blacks", they demonize "the poor" - while outright admitting that they don't mean the white poor. Especially the white working poor or white retired poor. (Who are on welfare, cos they're poor. Even though they're white.) And instead of "the Jews", they refer to "Manhattan intellectuals" and "liberals"* and such.

Sometimes you see the original subtext come out - for example, on a site like ZeroHedge or TFMetalsreport, when the survivalists & loony Rethuglicans are sure no "outsider" is listening, they'll devolve into the old way of talking.

But generally, the gun-nuts and survivalists are not concerned with a UN army, no matter what they say. The UN can be used in the odd fictional scenario, and this provides them a way of talking about their scene without having to worry about saying things that are now socially unacceptable; similarly they can present end-times scenarios like Left Behind, which can also be used to cover up the true content of their narrative. Some of the stories are even fun! - I personally love the idea behind the "Left Behind" series and would like to see a not shitty movie series made from it.

(Especially if Satan wins, and the "good" people are never raptured. That'd be even more awesome. And robots.)

Anyway... go read The Turner Diaries. Yes, seriously. I'm actually suggesting you read a piece of White Supremacist hate literature. At least 50 pages. You can find it on Pirate Bay for free, I'm sure. And the reason I'm suggesting it is, it's a foundation piece of right-wing literature; if you don't read it, you'll never be able to tell when the people who have read it are speaking in code.

Also, add Stonekettle Station to your Entertainment RSS feed - he's a load of fun, and he's not a right-wing nutter. He only posts 1-2 times a week. No reason not to read him.

* -  By the way - remember "life liberty and the pursuit of happiness"? What is that all about? I seem to have read that phrase somewhere, once. Is "liberty" supposed to be a guiding principle in America? If so, then isn't a "liberal" a person who stands for "liberty"?

In reality, "liberal" is yet another code word that's become important to the racist/conservative agenda; when you analyze the anti-"liberal" rhetoric today about "liberals" e.g. hating America and being traitors, you find that it's grammatically pretty darn near identical to the old McCarthyite/John Bircher/Moonie narrative about secret cells of commies and socialists attempting to rot America out from the inside. They're traitors, there's large numbers of homosexuals involved, and there's an association with non-whiteness and Jewishness (insofar as eastern Europeans, including Jewish ones, were often thought to be commie sympathizers - sometimes because they really were, sure, but other times just cos they knew about that world from their time back home).

I just laugh when I hear people saying they're "patriotic Americans" and yet are against liberty and liberalism. Thank god I don't live there, because being a hardcore "liberal" myself, I'd almost be compelled by a sense of duty to raise a militia and... well... rebuke the Rethuglican Party for being fascist, racist, totalitarian traitors to the American liberal ideal.

But I'm not so I won't.