Friday, July 6, 2012

Friday videos - Still Corners again

I'm stacking these posts up ahead of time, just so I don't have to go about in a rush on Friday afternoon. See, unlike some junior gold mining bloggers, I've gotta fucking work for a living, and usually Friday afternoons are a fucking rush at work.

Anyway, here's Still Corners again, this time with a real if-TV-still-existed-you'd-see-it-there video.


Thursday, July 5, 2012

Quick premarket comment for Kitco surfers

You'll see gold and silver dove today.

Just before 8AM EST, the ECB announced rate cuts including a zero overnight rate. That immediately dropped the Euro 0.5%, so USD rose, meaning PMs went down 0.5%.

Then I guess at 8:15 the ADP came out, showing 176k jobs versus consensus of 100k or so. Gold dove even futher and has now bounced off $1600; silver did the same.

Opinion? 76,000 extra jobs shouldn't crater silver 2%. Silver demand depends on solar cells, batteries, and the Indian monsoon. It also shouldn't crater gold 1%, as gold demand depends on tail risk and the Indian monsoon.

Also, though 76k extra jobs in the US is nice, it doesn't make that much difference to the possibility of future US easing, considering the growth they actually need; meanwhile, there is heavy easing going on right now in the UK, Europe, and now also China.

So, ho hum, there's a big tick on the Kitco charts. I'd use this to extricate myself from silver shorts or buy the dip and be long. Personally.

Italian 10-year 5.76%, Spain 6.46%. Moderately unchanged from yesterday. Again, boring. Of to work now bye.

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Wonder how NCU's price got down to $1.90?

Look at this chart:


Okay?

Now read this news release:

Pala invests in Nevada Copper Corp.

Isn't it interesting, you think? You know, that NCU gets hammered by relentless puking into the bids from June 20th all the way to July 3rd? Then, all of a sudden, a 2.5M transaction goes through? And the minute the transaction goes through, the price starts going back up, and is now at $2.30?

What an utter coincidence! Who could have predicted it!

I guess the good side to this is that we can now assume this was the final bottom in NCU. To da moon Alice!

Disclosure: I own NCU, I'm gravid with it in fact. Otto's reccie, and I personally liked it more than the other coppers he reccies.

Slow painful progress of the monsoon

The monsoon made it to Gujarat (north-west coast) today.

But everyone is still worried.
"Good harvests keep up rural incomes and in turn demand for gold and consumer goods. The rains, which provide the main source of water for 55 percent of India’s arable land, were 31 percent below average from June 1 to July 2, losing even more pace in the past week after being 23 percent below average to June 27.
'We will really head towards a bad monsoon year if it does not revive by July 10,' said D R Sikka, former director of the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology."

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Oh dear, wonder who's still short silver


Let's take a look at silver.


Oh dear. Divergence on the MACD. Positive crossover on the MACD. Divergence on the RSI. RSI up at the previous peak. SMA(40) resistance line is being probed. A Double bottom. And so on and so on.

Plus silver COT looking good, plus precious metals sentiment in the dumpster.

It all started going horribly wrong for the shorts when they decided to stay short silver into the Eurogroup meetings. I guess they figured Merkel would go to bed at a sensible hour, so as to not be pressured into doing dumb things by swarthy Latin boys at 4AM like good German girls aren't supposed to do.

Going short the policy summit? Man, that took balls! Or if not balls, it took some other thing.


With that in mind, let's see what happens when you use a triple-leveraged ETF to short silver, say by buying your first position at $46.50....


Oh dear.

Then you doubled down at $50, you say?

Oh dear.

Then you held thru the gap down?

Oh dear.

And now the US markets are closed til Thursday?

Oh dear.

So you're committed through a holiday? The one day of the year when JP Morgan, the Lizard People and the Joos can't manipulate the price of silver down?

Oh dear.

Well, here's an 18-second clip from Futurama that might make you feel better:



 Dearie dearie dearie dear!

quick market comment - autopilot for now

Well, if you're fully invested right now in your little stinky juniors, you can go on vacation. The bottom seems well and truly put in.

I personally grabbed some BTO at $3.06 late last week, and $10K of RIO this morning at... $4.10 or something. Needed some producers to go with my shitty explorecos.

Was still looking longingly at DPM, but am unsure.

Bear Creek Mining, for some reason, is moving aggressively up. Could it be that people are reading good things into the news?

I find Caterpillar's chart to be interesting. Was trying to get my "dogs of the Dow" buddy at work to buy back into the position that he dumped at $115 a while back. But he thinks there's still more doom to come. I figure for a buy and hold type guy to sidestep a $30 loss in CAT should be good enough for him.

I find everyone's assertion that there's more doom to come to also be very interesting.

Then again I think the S&P 500 earnings season coming up will disappoint people. Though that's only cos of the Euro Doom Causing China Doom story of the past few months.

US housing is changing everything.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

Special Sunday video for you

Came across this, and thought it was a good fit for the festering Liebor scandal, in which (if you forget) all worldwide commerce got fucked over by the bankers.



Cos he says "Selling England by the Pound".

Ottobaiting - BCM edition

Further to that Minera IRL post a few days back, here's an article that's 2 months old which completely slipped under the radar:


Bear Creek Expects Peru Project Rights Resolution by Year-End

Bear Creek Mining Corp. (BCM) expects to resolve a dispute with Peru by the end of this year, possibly by sharing profits with the local community, after the government withdrew a concession to develop the Santa Ana silver deposit.
Bear Creek may agree to give local communities 2 percent to 3 percent of net profit from the deposit as part of a deal to restore its rights to build and operate the mine, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Swarthout said in an interview in Toronto today.
“There’s a strong willingness to resolve this problem,” he told analysts and investors at a presentation earlier today. “We’ve had some very constructive discussions.”
Peru’s government withdrew Vancouver-based Bear Creek’s concession to develop the Santa Ana project as it sought to end a month of protests seeking a ban on mining and energy investment in the southern Andean region of Puno.
Newmont Mining, the largest U.S. gold producer, suspended construction of its $4.8 billion Minas Conga project in Peru in November after weeks of clashes between police and opponents of the mine. Newmont said last week it’s evaluating the recommendations of a government report that said the project needs “substantive improvements.”
Swarthout said the uncertainty over Minas Conga probably needs to be resolved before Bear Creek sees progress on an agreement for recovering the Santa Ana rights.
Bear Creek declined 3 percent to C$3.25 at the close in Toronto. The shares have fallen 60 percent in the past 12 months while silver prices have dropped 36 percent.

Corani Project

The mine may cost $70.8 million and produce 5 million ounces annually in its first six years, according to a January 2011 feasibility study. Bear Creek, which says the withdrawal was unconstitutional, is targeting annual silver production of 15 million to 20 million ounces by 2015, Swarthout said.
The company’s larger Corani project in Peru may cost $574 million and produce 13.4 million ounces of silver annually in its first five years, according to a Nov. 9 feasibility study. The company will submit a permitting application this year, Swarthout said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Liezel Hill in Toronto at lhill30@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Simon Casey at scasey4@bloomberg.net



I'll save Otto the trouble:

"Santa Ana will never be a mine." - Otto Rock, 2011
"Santa Ana will never be a mine." - Otto Rock, 2012
"Santa Ana will never be a mine." - Otto Rock, later that same year

While you all were freaking out about Euro Doom and China Doom

A certain newsletter writer today did something shocking. He used a new chart.

And it's a good one. Check it out:


While you bozos were all freaking out about the end of the Eurozone and the imminent collapse of China, the US housing market was finally taking off. That usually happens, eh? You get all wound up in one thing, while somewhere else the market is doing something interesting that you could have made money with if only you hadn't been distracted by butterflies.

You know the housing market - it's the one that supports the entire US economy. It's the one that since 2008 everyone was freaking out about, cos it never recovered from the collapse, and with all that overhang in the foreclosure market it was never going to come back. So therefore the US economy was weak and teetering on the edge of doooom.

If you had been a good boy, reading your New Deal Democrat, Bonddad, and maybe some Ritholtz every day, you'd have known for a while that the lack of doooom in housing was an important topic of discussion over the past few weeks.

Here's the weekly:


Does that chart look good to you? You might notice it's gone to a new high, broken through resistance quite well with a fat white candle, and is now trigger-up on the MACD. And all this after a good three years of utter suckage. It's the market that never recovered. Til now, apparently.

I'll play chartie for a sec here and cavalierly posit that it's targeting 190. To translate, that's one hell of a big kerblooie if it happens.

It's hard for the world economy to collapse when the US housing market is about to take off.

I think you should probably buy housing instead of junior miners right now.


Monsoon watch

The Indian monsoon has been pretty lame this year so far. Southwest coast has gotten some good hard rains, and the northeast is already seeing its yearly devastating floods, but it's still drought elsewhere in India. The northwest is particularly dry, and the government is now worried.

The Indian weathermen have been predicting the monsoon to pick up by July, but apparently they're notorious for being worthless.

But it looks like things might pick up now.

For now, India Meteorological Department has indicated enhanced rains for the peninsular regions for the next few days.
Its weather warning said heavy rainfall would lash Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal and north interior Karnataka, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during next two days.
RAIN OUTLOOK
Extended outlook valid until July 8 said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places along west coast, east and adjoining central India and the Northeastern States.
The IMD also saw increase in rainfall activity over northwest India during this period.
But here is international weather models begged to differ. They have pointed to chances of cyclone formation alert in the northwest Pacific during the week beginning July 8.
If this were to materialise, it could throw a spanner in the monsoon works, yet again.

And by the way, as a reminder, a good monsoon means rich farmers, which means more gold purchases, and Indian farmers make up 10% of worldwide gold demand.

Although an interesting prediction from inside India is that gold demand will remain depressed into 2013, due to a higher price in rupee, while you might actually see a lot more demand for silver in India this year.

Just wanted to repeat that whole India monsoon gold thingie for you, in case you still thought gold's price was dependent on something prosaic like expansion of the US money supply (Americans don't buy gold) or the 30s/2s (the bond market also doesn't buy gold).

There is a world outside the USA which affects global demand for commodities. Yes, Hollywood and the lamestream media don't show it to you, but trust me, it's there.

PS there is of course the complication that while a good monsoon means bountiful crops, they usually rot in storehouses because India's supply chain is mediaeval. But I assume (don't know for sure here) that the farmers still get paid for their crops even when they don't manage to get shipped anywhere.