Friday, June 22, 2012

Something fishy methinks



They're not buying treasuries. Why not?




USD isn't advancing. Why not?




Vix isn't exploding. Why not?

Friday videos - hey, remember the 21st century? - Xeno and Oaklander, plus a whole wave of wave from NYC

So... back in the old days - the 1980s - we had just come out of an age of massive inflation, societal collapse and class warfare. Result? Western society began to think about a future. Forget the bullshit of the past, forget three-chord shitty rock, let's look to the future and imagine what it'll be like.

So you got this weird sort of electronic new wave stuff come out. No, not Human League - I mean the really interesting stuff.

I mean sure, there was the electronica of the 70s, like Suicide:




Or Kraftwerk:



And even aw heck why not OMD, they were around at the end of the 70s, and they were electronic:




But then by the 80s, this futuristic electronic music gets a lot more aggressive and a lot more, erm, fun, I think.

Kas Product:



Futurisk:



A Crash Course in Science:




No More:



Well, the point of all this is, yes, there's still EBM and darkwave and terrorcore and all that stuff, but that's all more of a goth scene than a futurist scene. And it's too much like trance music, really, when you get down to it. Good for drugs, not so great for ideas. Point being, aside from a few very tiny very unheard of acts here and there (Lipstick, Stella Maris, and so on), I've not found any futuristic electro to listen to in a dog's age.

Anyway, I just stumbled across a duo from the US who actually care about going back to the future: Xeno and Oaklander. And even stranger, they're not from Europe, they're from the US.




And if you're a synth nut, check out this $50,000 collection of toys:





Things like this make me think there's hope for the 21st century.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Journal article you need to read about gold

The Golden Dilemma




Claude B. Erb


TR

Campbell R. Harvey


Duke University - Fuqua School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

June 7, 2012


Abstract:     

Gold objects have existed for thousands of years but gold has only been an actively traded object since 1975. Gold has often been described as an inflation hedge. If gold is an inflation hedge then on average its real return should be zero. Yet over 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 year investment horizons the variation in the nominal and real returns of gold has not been driven by realized inflation. The real price of gold is currently high compared to history. In the past, when the real price of gold was above average, subsequent real gold returns have been below average. As a result investors in gold face a daunting dilemma: 1) seek inflation protection by paying a high real gold price that almost guarantees a decline in future purchasing power or 2) avoid gold and run the risk of a decline in future purchasing power if inflation surges. Given this situation is it time to explore “this time is different” rationalizations? We show that new mined supply is surprisingly unresponsive to prices. In addition, authoritative estimates suggest that about three quarters of the achievable world supply of gold has already been mined. On the demand side, we focus on the official gold holdings of many countries. If prominent emerging markets increase their gold holdings to average per capita or per GDP holdings of developed countries, the real price of gold may rise even further from today’s elevated levels. 
 
Number of Pages in PDF File: 37

get it here (hit "download" to read it)

But!... but!...

But!... but!... China buys lots of gold!


Having problems posting today. Employer might be blocking blogger.

Here's all the news that's meant to fade:

1. China HSBC flash PMI was terrible.
2. Philly Fed was terrible.
3. Yet Italian and Spanish bond yields have decreased.
4. Yet $VIX, while up today, still has this tendency to hang on to the bottom bollinger band with either open or close price.

GDX is hanging on by the hairs of its chinny chin chin. GDXJ has already failed and should drop a bit. Silver is also in danger of hitting a new low, which ain't good.

I remain unconcerned because I mostly own stocks that everyone's ignoring.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Daniela Daniela Daniela!

Daniela's been in Las Vegas interviewing a bunch of people about metals and stuff.

First the boss of IPMI himself:



Two interviews with CPM:



Jolly Jeorge Gero from RBC:


Colin Newman's brother Philip, who's more bullish on silver.



You may decide for yourself whether any of these guys know their ass from a hole in the ground. Personally, I find it quaint to listen to the opinions of a week ago, re: Greece, Spailout, Operation Twist 2, and so on.

Also, interestingly, every single person feels silver & copper are kneecapped by low growth. Ah ha, says the contrary investor! I sense a crowded boat!

Yamana - dooooom?



RSI is trending down and MACD is about to cross over negative. Open to close is between the 2 EMAs.

All I'm saying is, I was poking through charts trying to decide whether the miners are rolling over... then I saw this.



market comments

1. I guess if you're the type of person who likes shorting silver, there's no better day than a Fed day. You think?

2. Nevada Copper's land conveyance bill got passed or something, but on an amateur's fast glance it seems the bigger news is they want to stage Pumpkin Hollow for a cheaper overall project bill. Oh, plus an updated resource coming next month. Finally it's started moving upwards, and finally I can feel all clever about not just buying a copper play (remember "copper dooooom?"), but also the right copper play.

3. Oh dear... GDXJ is rolling over.


So maybe we will get that retest in the miners that folks were talking about.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Yes Minister on Europe

Been spending some time watching all the old episodes of Yes Minister.

All sorts of jokes about the EU still apply today...





And since I know some bloody chirper will bring it up, here's the Euro Sausage speech:




Metal Augmentor on a lot of miners, from the New York Hard Assets Conference

Silverax talks too much and his mic is too damn loud. And there is no video, only audio, and it's very hard to listen to.

But if you're okay with all that, you can listen to Silverax and the other guy talk about the various miners they checked out at the New York Hard Ass(ets) Conference.
















Holy shit, I almost forgot! Tomorrow is Caterpillar Mining Day!

Zounds and bodkins! I almost forgot! Tomorrow is Caterpillar Mining Day!

No, seriously, it's probably rather important or something.

The webcast will be available for replay for 90 days; no transcripts from the presentation will be made available.

Though apparently you'll need Windows Media Player installed in order to hear it, because... fuck, I really don't have the slightest clue why you'd have to run that lump of steaming pile on your computer.

market comment - everything's alright forever

Here's a collection of happy charts for you, complete with abbreviated sarcastic commentary:


Apparently the emerging markets aren't doomed anymore. Cos they've gone 3-sigma up.



Apparently China's not doomed anymore cos it's gone 3-sigma up.



Apparently six billion people are still going to eat food after all. MOO's gone 3-sigma up.



Steel also looks vaguely hopeful.
Please explain how this indicates we're all fucking doomed.

Look at the shorts on that bottom!

Can't find a NSFW graphic for this post right now cos I'm at W, where it'd be NS.

Anyway... another fun article from ETF Daily News, this one noting that there are record shorts in silver. And that's a good time to buy silver.

Here... let me steal the graphic for you.


So if you want to justify your silverbuggery, go read the rest of the article.



Jojo on bottoms, Robert Sinn on pretty charts

Jojo's got an article up today at ETF Daily News on bottoms.

Unfortunately not the naughty kind, more the market kind.

You can go read it here.

Meanwhile, Robert Sinn questions whether gold miners are poised to rally. Basically, he says the charts look nice and all.



Monday, June 18, 2012

Whole bunch of Cambridge House interviews from June for you

Just poked around a little more on YouTube and found all these other interviews, from Cambridge House Vancouver (I think).

Brent Cook:





Rick Roll Rule:





John Kaiser:




Mickey Fulp:




The Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!):




Freedom-fighter and anarchist hero, Jeff Berwick:




Ross Beaty, who does more important things with his life than writing some stupid fucking blog or newsletter, so god knows why he's slumming with the rest of these guys:




After watching them... Cook and Fulp both repeat themselves (and why don't these economic geologists ever talk about geology?), Rick Rule is a bit of a Rondroid asshat, and Ross Beaty is about the best of them all.




Al Korelin spends 10 minutes with Eric Edwards from Lupaka

Al Korelin interviews Lupaka's Eric Edwards, have a watch:


China Dooooom and solar cell glory

Here's an article by Chovanec on how China is utterly fucking doomed... except he's kinda hopeful at the end. I ignore the end bit, cos after all Chovanec has to watch what he says if he wants to stay in China.


Can U.S. and China Avert Accounting Armageddon?

Really good article, read it. Then try to square it with what you already read in that "China is a kleptocracy" article that went viral a few weeks ago.

Elsewhere in the economy, here's a very hopeful article on solar cells:

World Solar Power Goes Parabolic

I seem to remember a certain shiny silvery metal, a large proportion of the yearly production of which goes into manufacture of solar cells.


Fear seems to be dissipating....

Here's the $VIX as of noon....


I see an intraday lower low on the indicator and on its RSI. Let's see if it just bounces off the lower bollinger again, or if it breaks through and starts moving down.

Interestingly, S&P 500 isn't higher at all. So it's not so much the market being happy as it is staying at the same level, but with less trepidation and need for protective puts.

Sunday, June 17, 2012

And so what happened to gold tonight?

Some bastard decided to probe the $1610 stops before the Sydney open.


Geez, if I was a billionaire I'd be one fuck of a lot more evil than that. I'd nuke Washington and sell heavy arms to al-Qaeda and release the secret Anthrax/Ebola hybrid into the water supply in Beijing and keep Natalie Portman and Mia Kirshner locked up in a fun-dungeon. All from the safety of my giant obsidian skull-fortress in the Guyanan jungles.

This guy here isn't evil, he's just fucking desperate.

Oh well... the guy obviously wanted to own gold at $1610, so maybe it's going up from here....


BREAKING NEWS: Weallnotgonnadieafterallkthxbye

So, do you want me to tell you the result of the Greek election? Okay, but first:

(BN) China to Maintain Steady, Robust Growth, Hu Jintao Says


China’s economy will bottom out this quarter and rebound in the following three months as government measures to stabilize a slowdown take effect, an academic adviser to the nation’s central bank said. 

“The second quarter should be the lowest point” this year, Chen Yulu said in an interview at a forum in Beijing on June 16. Full-year growth “should be able to hold up above 8 percent,” he said. 

So... China's growing after all?

Australia Says Resources Investment Hits Records on Asian Demand

Australia’s annual growth in the January-March period was the fastest since the third quarter of 2007, a government report showed this month. Growth averaged over the past two quarters was the fastest among countries with Group of 10 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. 

So... mining is doing well?

French Socialists Win Absolute Majority in Parliament

Hollande’s “large majority will allow us to lead the battle for growth with our European partners against the politics of austerity,” Harlem Desir, the acting secretary of the Socialist Party, said on France’s BFM television.

So... Hollande has an ironclad mandate to oppose Merkel's Austerianism?

Solar Boom Heads to Japan Creating $9.6 Billion Market: Energy

Industry Minister Yukio Edano today may set a premium price for solar electricity that’s about triple what industrial users now pay for conventional power, a ministry official said. That may spur at least $9.6 billion in new installations with 3.2 gigawatts of capacity, Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecast. The total is about equal to the output of three atomic reactors.

"The tariff is very attractive,” said Mina Sekiguchi, associate partner and head of energy and infrastructure at KPMG in Japan. “The rate reflects the government’s intention to set up many solar power stations very quickly.”

Um... they use silver in solar cells, you know.

Basel rules likely to be watered down

Bloomberg reports that the ECB could well reduce interest rates below 1.0% (a virtual certainty, in my humble view) and in addition to reduce the deposit rates to zero from 25bps, to discourage banks from depositing funds with them. 

Um... so, the interbank market in the EU is going to be forced into unfreezing?

The WSJ reports that regulators may allow banks to count their holdings of gold and equities towards bank capital in respect of “liquidity coverage ratios”.

Um... so EZ banks will have a good reason to own gold?




These are the news stories I'd want to see if I was to buy shitty junior gold & silver stocks with both fists.

Oh and by the way, Pasok and Nea Dimokratia apparently have enough seats between them to control a majority, according to projections being talked about right now.


Dose of realism....

And let's all just remember:

IT'S ONLY GREECE FOR GOD'S SAKE.

I mean, Greece isn't China, England or the USA.

In fact, Greece doesn't even measure up to Canada, Thailand or Indonesia.

Actually, Greece is even but a pimple on the butt of the Ukraine, Denmark and New Zealand.

So calm the fuck down people!

PS My money's on Tsipras....


Funny comment from GT

In this week's "Notes from the Rabbit Hole", GT says:

"Are all these H&S here to scare us and put us on the wrong side, or are they warnings of financial calamity? I do not ask this as a wise guy. I am a chart guy, and there are potential H&S all over the place."

Absolutely.

Now, how many other people in the world see all those H&S patterns? Nobody? Or lots of people?

In particular, how about the Venture Index's H&S targeting zero, or some otherwise insignificant number? That's a "piles of human skulls" level there, dude. Society collapses and our day-to-day lives become Cormac McCarthy's "The Road".

No wonder that last night, as I was skimming through the blogs, I saw post after post about the DOOOOOOOM. Everyone: Bianco, Sarkar, every reputable blogger was all of a sudden writing about how the doom is suddenly upon us. It's as if nobody's having a day off this weekend: everything is DOOOOOM DOOOOOM DOOOOOM!

Everybody's freaked all the fuck out.

Betcha if Syiza wins, the S&P instantly drops below 1000.

Then comes right back to 1300, as the market realizes they have to form a coalition first.

Then crashes back down to 900 as Syriza has success in forming their coalition.

Then flies back up to 1200 as people realize Greece leaving the Eurozone is good.

Then crashes back down to 1000 as people realize Syriza's not leaving.

And so on and so on wash rinse repeat say goodnight Gracie goodnight Gracie.

Take a fucking pill, internet!