Saturday, June 9, 2012

More on the Brazilian panties scandal

S&P futures are taking a nosedive this weekend, and a special meeting of the G20 is being called, to discuss the developing Brazilian panties scandal.

All I know is, it probably didn't go down something like this:




How do I know this? The panties in the news story were red & white, and Sharon Stone's are kind of a dark violet or something.

Also, people are beginning to suspect an international element - probably Russian. Why?

Apparently Brazilian girls don't actually wear panties. They prefer body paint.




I'm sorry to disturb you with these images, but I'm sure after you watch them you'll thank me.

Because I don't try to hide the truth.

Now go wipe down your monitor.

The LatAm news that IKN is afraid to print

This is not a LatAm blog, but since the other LatAm blogs are all trying to hide the truth, I feel it's my responsibility to make sure this story gets out.

And it's a shocker.

Brazil burns mystery panties found in Congress 

Thu, May 31 12:20 PM EDT

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - A pair of women's underwear that fell out of a Brazilian legislator's briefcase on the floor of Congress two weeks ago has been incinerated after no one stepped forward to claim them, O Globo newspaper reported on Thursday.
A group of five legislators was rushing into the Chamber of Deputies to vote on a cybercrimes-related bill on the evening of May 15 when one of them apparently dropped the offending red and white panties, O Globo said.
Security guards quickly, but discreetly, swooped in to pick up the panties and turn them over to the chamber's lost and found office. O Globo said security staff then decided to incinerate the panties late on Wednesday - shortly after a story about the incident first appeared online, and went viral on Brazilian social media.

more at reuters....

Friday, June 8, 2012

Comment on Biiwii's comment

Okay, so GT wasn't led astray by the Raoul Pal apocalypticon after all. In fact, maybe he's been misled by me into agreeing that Pal bottom-ticked the S&P?

Anyway, I'm outright stealing one of his charts here:


This is the most important chart in the world, as far as I'm concerned. I've been reading GT for 2 years now and I've watched this chart perfectly pick the tops and bottoms of the market. And if I wasn't such a goldbug fool I'd simply trade SPY based on this chart.

T-bond is "up there". So can things really get worse? Well, the chart has been breaking its channel and trying to form a new, more vertical one for the past few years; so if there's a doom a-comin', it's going to be an extreme one.

But this looks a lot more like a bottom to me (bottoms happen at the green arrows).

I've seen positive US news. Here's a list:
  • there's been regular prediction that a housing bottom is spreading slowly across the various markets in the US. Once housing bottoms, it portends well for US employment;
  • the unemployment reports hide an interesting secret; the hiring cycle is speeding up. I forget whose blog featured this fact but, drilling down, the weakness was expected now, and a new hiring cycle should start this summer;
  • as Bonddad notes, the economy isn't as bad as the employment report indicates;
  • oil has collapsed, right in time for summer, and Iraq is now pumping again - so gas prices (and other petroleum product prices, like fertilizer) should go own, which is good for the US economy;
  • Democrats can hope for an Obama re-election and Republicans can hope for a Romney win.
So really, everyone is really more concerned about Euro Doom 2012 and China Doom 2012.

If Euro Doom is fixed this weekend, and if this weekend's data demonstrates that the China Doom is no more than the histrionics of a neurotic market, then we should really be off to the races.

On the other hand, if things fuck up more, than that t-bond chart above seems to suggest to me that we really WILL see an age of smoking ruins. Cos that continuum will get broken all to hell if it goes up from here.

Spain gets fixed, China collapses into a pit of hellfire

As the Reformed Borker (Bork bork bork!) noted today, this is the weekend that Spain gets its banks bailed out.

So you'd expect markets to go up next week cos Spain's no longer the problem.

Unless you think they won't get a bailout. Personally, I think that with Stephen Harper saying "you can't have the Greek election determining the fate of the world economy", with Obama constantly reminding them "I'm not going to put up with this, cos if you guys fall apart you know the Republicans are going to blame the black guy across the ocean", and with the German banks themselves getting downgrades - that is, Germany's not a fucking island - that the bailouts will have to happen.

The only question is will it be enough money. The doomiest estimate is $100 billion, the boring estimates are more like $30 billion.

So maybe the markets won't go up because with Spain off the table, people will go back to thinking about Greece.

Except even if Syriza wins the election the following week, the demonstration by the Eurozone that they're going to support Italy and Spain should be enough to clue the market in that nobody should really fucking care about Greece.

It's as if the stock market is a little child and Tspiras is the naughty man who's been touching them in a bad place: with Spain backstopped, mommy can now tell the market "it's okay. The police have sent that bad man away, he can't touch you any more."

So maybe instead the market will dooooom out about China. Apparently China is going to release numbers this weekend that are afeared to demonstrate that their economy has collapsed or something. I just checked ZeroHedge, and there's nothing there yet, and you darn well know if there was Chinese doom a-happenin' that they'd be all over it like toxic fungus on a patroit's scrotum.

So, I guess that's the play. Possible fears? (1) Spain bailout fails; (2) OMG we forgot Greece; (3) China becomes windswept barren plain bereft of life.

If none of those things happen, then maybe we should expect the market to go up next week.

Let's see what really happens.

Friday videos - may as well do it again


Ozzy & Black Sabbath playing "War Pigs".



"Satan, laughing, spreads his wings!" - John Milton, Paradise Lost



Thursday, June 7, 2012

Turd Ferguson quits

One bad day on the PMs, and now infamous goldbug Turd Ferguson has quit and gone to join the Ted Kaczynski brigade.

Quote:

None of it matters and, frankly, neither does my brand of TA. The reason Turd is who Turd is is because the markets are manipulated. Knowing that, it made predicting price quite easy. However, at this moment of extreme desperation, where The Powers That Be are doing everything possible to cling to their power, none of it matters anymore. 
The only thing left to do is stack. I've done my part to alert as many as possible and, in large part, my TA made that possible. But now, it seems that those willing to listen have heard. Everyone else is being peeled away by the manipulative powers of the status quo. They are doomed. You and I, however, shall march on, intent upon protecting ourselves and our families.
In the days ahead, you'll be seeing less charts on this site. Maybe the occasional weekly or daily chart but rarely the 2-hour or 4-hour versions. What would be the point? As long as the charts are used against us, why should I keep citing them when, by doing so, I'm actually driving people away from the message?
This site will continue to focus on precious metal accumulation and preparation. Soon, there will be a "sister" site where I will deliver daily podcasts. Neither site will encourage trading within the current system. Both sites will be devoted to financial and physical preparation for the tribulations that are to come.

BNN interviews John Gravelle from PWC on how gold miners suck™

Last night, the unendurable boredom of watching a Los Angeles-New Jersey playoff game drove me to instead watch the repeat of the Commodities Report on BNN.

Third segment saw Andy Bell (former lead singer of Erasure, yes, it's him) interview John Gravelle from Price Waterhouse Coopers, where he goes into a little bit of detail on the extent to which gold miners suck™.

Wanna watch? Here's the link.

Good point of his is that a lot of capex and buyouts will be delayed. So does that mean it's a dumb idea to buy a junior miner for a buyout?

Also, he notes the miners are also suffering from lack of technical talent. Again, to me this supports the argument that you should just avoid miners altogether and just buy the metal.

Speaking of which, here's the link to the gold report that PWC put out in the winter, where they utterly and completely failed to predict that gold miners would spend this year sucking™.


Altogether, quite doomy.

Featuring: the readers of My Own Market Narrative!

I've been given a power that is humbling... the ability to track every single view on my blog. IP addresses, ISPs, names - everything is now at my fingertips. And now I'd like to share that with you!

Well, not really. I'd like to creep you out is all.

Here's an example:





















You've seen him in the comments section. But his real name is Jan Fredrik Forsberg, of the beautiful town of Bromma, in Sweden. This is his house. Presumably the room where he spends all day reading stock blogs in his pyjamas is in the basement of this house.

Here's another:


In one of these very luscious mobile homes in Castle Rock Colorado, in sight of the majestic foothills, lives Bobby-Ray "Bo" Snider, one of this blog's earliest followers.


And:



Our occasional reader Noddy Tarbox can tell you there's a lot to do in Preston Lancs, and it mostly involves producing a trail of tikka masala vomit along this very pavement in front of his flat, from about 1:30-2:00AM, usually after a night of singing along to Take That songs at the karaoke bar just to the right.

Noddy's done quite well in the junior mining scene, making quite a pretty penny last year on Aura Silver. Which he later lost. On Aura Silver. Don't worry! He made it all back on Regulus Resources. Then he lost it again. On Regulus Resources.

And finally:



Oh dear. Northfield Capital. Are you shitting me? Quit wasting company time on this blog.

Seriously. Shouldn't you be reading resource reports? Or doing cash flow analyses? Or getting pissed at that bar under the TMX with that little perky staff accountant chick from Deloitte & Touche? You know you want her. Quit being a sissy. The worst she can do is say no. And from personal experience, I can assure you she won't. Cos I tapped that bitch already.

I'll be exposing featuring exposing featuring exposing more readers soon! Wait'll you see the fantastic view in Vojvodina! Someone from Burma stumbles onto our blog after a google search about Peter Grandich! And didja know, you can find our reader from RBC in a google maps street-view photo?


In case you thought European leaders were idiots....

There was a good FT article (no paywall, you're fine) a few days ago that I sent to myself for when I had some time to post.

It's basically predicated on the idea that the people elected to lead the great economies of the world aren't fucking morons, despite what the commenters at Stormfront ZeroHedge might say.

Here it is:

When strategy is mistaken for stupidity, the curious case of eurozone politicians

As they note:

"acting like a maniac, provided one doesn’t get killed, may be optimal in order to ultimately get one’s way."

Meaning, behind all the apparent stupidity of inter-Euro politics there is usually a clever plan. You just don't see it because you don't understand what it is each politican is trying to accomplish. Rather like dealing with drunken Irishmen.

(Note: you can still assume that there is no clever plan in festering shitholes like Hungary.)

Josh the Borker interviews Brent Cook

I passed it on to Otto, since he's the bigger Cookie Monster fan, but he hasn't posted it, and I've now got a couple hours off from work, so....

Josh Brown, a.k.a. The Reformed Borker (Bork! Bork! Bork!) visited the Cambridge conference in Vancouver last week.

Now, as you'll see on that post, despite all his bravado and book deal and such, Josh really truly is a babe in the woods when it comes to Canadian mining. Example: he took Casey seriously. Other example: he wanted skim milk at Tim Horton's, but doesn't know that in Canada we call it "fag queer milk".

Anyway... he also sat down and interviewed Brent Cook. Now, there's nothing new really to see here if you're a Cookaholic, except maybe the interaction between a Canada-wise junior mining analyst and one of those Wall Street junior mining virgins. You can tell Josh's never had his ass raped by the angry chainsaw-wielding silverback gorilla that is the junior mining world, the way we all have.

Here's the interview, anyway:



Wait... wait... no, that's the wrong Josh Brown video.

Ah, here it is.

From now on *I* stalk *you*

BTW, here's a shout-out to the guy visiting my page who's running Firefox 12 on Win7, with a screen resolution of 1366x768 (wtf?), whose connection is provided by a non-Mexico subsidiary of America Movil (hey! Carlos Slim!).

Damn right bitches! I got upgrades!

While all you guys were all "silver and gold"....

While everyone else was busy buying the hell out of utterly worthless gold and silver properties like SBB, KGN and GUY, driving them up 50% from their bottoms, I was looking at copper thinking "yeah... you know, I'd rather buy a copper miner".

So I bought a particular copper play, which some analyst guy was looking at adding. Apparently some guys named Yerington like them. Now volume has surged and that's driving the price slowly up. That looks good to me.

Other than that... I'm not concerned with the gold and silver dive today. After all, it was only Bernanke. Right? It certainly blew a lot of the froth off the heavily overbought miners and purported explorecos; and yet, GDX is still sitting at its EMA(8) right now, and gold & silver are only back where they were a couple days ago.

Oh... and unfortunately I also bought DPM. Hey, their smelter problem is only temporary, right? You know, the one that they shut down cos the government got all snippy with them?

Meh. We'll see. Selloff in miners that I follow happened on low volume. I roll my eyes. This ain't nearly as nasty as March thru May was.

More HFT code has just been released

From the great Anonymous HFT hacking scandal, here's yet more code:

if bernanke(has.stopped.speaking);
buy(gold);
buy(silver);

Some HAL9000 code for you

Hackers from Anonymous have downloaded some of the code used by the HFT computers.

Here's an interesting tidbit:

if bernanke(testifying);
   sell(gold)
   sell(silver);

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Let's all laugh at Mr. Bottom-Tick, Raoul Pal, and his Doomy Doominess Of Doom

Everyone came out with dire predictions of the future last week. Do you remember? Well, the most apocalytic of all was Raoul Pal. His dooooom was doooomier than any dooooom that had ever been dooooomed before.

His writeup was first featured on David Duke's website ZeroHedge. Quoting from them:

  • It is the big RESET.
It continues:
  • Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
  • The whole bond market will be dead.
  • Short selling on bonds - banned
  • Short selling stocks – banned
  • CDS – banned
  • Short futures – banned
  • Put options – banned
  • All that is left is the Dollar and Gold
It only gets better. We use the term loosely:
  • We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
  • Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.
  • After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges
And the punchline
From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end.
Obviously, ZH loved it.

Then it got to Business Insider. Here's some of their summary:

Everyday, we hear some pretty grim predictions about the markets and the economy.  But this is one of the more comprehensive and most gloomy outlooks we've ever seen.
Raoul Pal expects a series of sovereign defaults, the "biggest banking crisis in world history", and asserts that we don't have many options to stop it. 

Then it got to Biiwii. He kinda fell for it too.
Now, look at the date of all this. June 1st.

Okay? Got the date firmly memorized?

Now look at these charts:


GLD:SLV peaked the day after.


Bonds peaked that day.



JNK:LQD bottomed that day.


US dollar peaked that day.


$VIX peaked that day.

There's a lot of talk in the blogtinuum about how George Soros' smack upside the EZ's head has gone viral. I agree, sure, it has. But I'd like to suggest that Raoul Pal's Ultradoom Of Blackened Infinite Doomy Doominess (Of Doom) also went viral.

But in a bad way. Sorta like how blackened oozing genitalia that have fallen off someone, and are found lying in the street attracting insects, can be said to have "gone viral".

Some old wise man like Socrates must have once said "a wise man laughs at himself". He must have, cos that'd make for a good story.

But we can't be as wise as Socrates, so the best we can do is laugh at Raoul Pal, the man who bottom-ticked the fucking universe.

PS regarding that thing you're all searching for:

PS, regarding that exploreco recommended by that guy, that you're all searching for info about, cos you're wondering why the stock hasn't really gone up since the news came out this week:

Yeah, the economics is awesome according to that guy, and it's dumb that there's not a lot of buying volume after that news came out. May as well wait til that thing you're waiting for comes out on SEDAR.

comment at the preopen

Hey, didja notice this?


It looks as if $USD and bonds have stopped going up.

Was yesterday a lower high? It'll be quite telling if UUP and IEF go down for the next 2 days.

This looks a lot like last year's gold move, or the old $50 silver pop. I.e., a minibubble that's stopped in its tracks.

Meanwhile:




Emerging markets are either at a bottom, or are preparing to fall further (think $HUI of the last few months); and copper seems to agree things look dire. Both are at horizontal resistance from December; I don't put much stock in that though.

So are there multiple stories here? One being China slowdown, and a totally unrelated one being Euro Doom? The latter's receded so the flight to safety bid for dollar and bond has receded, but the former is still on the radar?

Or maybe everyone recognizes we just have to wait for the Greek election in 2 weeks before the Euro Doom story can continue. After all, people only have so much attention span; after a while they need to start freaking out over other different shit.

Today silver popped again. God knows why, it's an industrial metal.

Australian Q1 GDP surprised to the upside. But that was months ago and anyone who follows $HUI knows that Jan-March was good for mining economies.

I'm busy at work the next couple weeks so posting will be light til morale improves.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Weekend comment

Yup, gold and silver shot up.

I have no clue why silver shot up, since it's supposed to be an industrial metal - associated with batteries and solar cells.

Maybe gold shot up because everyone's realizing that the Euro Doom 2012 won't stop at Germany's border - or Switzerland's (they're about to lose control over the Franc, so I've heard) - or at the USA's (Operation Twist is done?) - or at China's.

Gold miners, and even some few silver miners - and even some crappy explorecos - were bought with both fists by the market on Friday. Unfortunately it was Friday, when most of the market is on the golf course. So I want to see what happens on Monday and Tuesday, especially in the news cycle. Maybe we can get a bit of a bottom retest? Then again, an extreme bottom won't give you a retest, will it?

It seems that people within the Eurozone (Monti, Hollande, Draghi) and without (Obama) have completely lost patience, especially with Merkel and Austerian Economics. Maybe that's a signal that money-printing is around the corner?

And really, Merkel's gotta someday realize that the only reason Germany managed to absorb a third-world country (East Germany) and still surge forward to remain a strong economy is because they invited the less-competitive and less-efficient Southern Europe into the Empire. I.e., now Germany's expected to give back what they've taken as profits over the last decade or more.

Krugman notes that money-printing is fine, not inflationary at all, when you're in a deflationary spiral of debt de-leveraging. You can't have inflation without an increase in velocity of money. I find, by the way, that right-wingers don't have a fucking clue about velocity of money (as Krugman says most people generally don't); if they did, then they'd pursue political-economic policies that give more money to the poor, whose money necessarily flies out the door faster, and take more money from the rich, whose money doesn't (especially in this age) move at any real speed through the economy.

Anyway....

Gold miners were beaten down so bad that it was obvious everyone was suspecting gold was going to $0.00. Now gold miner prices are popping back to sanity. Include the pop in gold's price back above $1600, and things look good. And as both GT and Jojo note, miner fundamentals look bloody awesome now, with the whole market experiencing major deflation except gold.

So yeah, it was the bottom a couple weeks ago.