Friday, June 1, 2012

Premarket update - yeah, don't give up on PMs just yet

In case you were in transit for the past half hour, you might just wanna go over to Kitco and check the prices for silver and gold.

They all went foom.

Don't worry, "foom" is a word desribing upwards motion.

$1582, $27.95 as of this second.

Let's see how much sucking the miners can do today, eh?



Friday videos - comedy edition


Here's a big 80-minute video from some Comic Con, where cartoon voice actors Billy West, Tara Strong, Maurice LaMarche, John DiMaggio, Kevin Conroy, Jess Harnell, and Rob Paulsen read scenes from the original three Star Wars movies in funny voices.

Obviously most of the characters from Futurama appear. But then you also get impressions of Bill Cosby (as R2D2), Johnny Carson, William Shatner, Cartman, Tracy Morgan, and (my favourite) Christopher Walken.



Thursday, May 31, 2012

Ottotrans: graduates from dinkass miners to critical world events

Merkel’s Isolation Deepens as Draghi Criticizes Strategy (BB)

Before we get to the satire and the utterly unnecessary profuse swearing, I strongly suggest you read that article. Seems a slight glimmer of truth has pierced the veil and now we're about to see something.

Maybe I read too much into it, but it seemed a stunningly important article to me.

So go follow the link and read the story.



Done? Good.

Some choice bits:

Draghi told a European Parliament committee in Brussels yesterday that it wasn’t his job to make up for the failures of policy makers. When pressed on whether the ECB can step up action to tame financial turmoil and help cap widening bond spreads, Draghi said that “it’s not our duty, it’s not in our mandate” to “fill the vacuum left by the lack of action by national governments on the fiscal front,” on “the structural front, and on the governance front.” 

TRANSLATION: Draghi said "Quit the fuck looking at me! I set fucking interest rates! When the fuck are you fat fucks going to fucking do something?"

European Commission proposals yesterday for European- financed bank recapitalizations and a timetable for euro bonds met with rejection in Germany,

TRANSLATION: It's fucking Germany that's fucking holding everything the fuck up by not fucking agreeing to anything.

Merkel put some nuance into the German position today. While promising “no taboos” in attacking the crisis, she floated a timeline of “five to 10 years” for fixing flaws in a currency shared by countries with divergent wealth and attitudes toward taxing and spending.

TRANSLATION: Germany thinks they have 5 to 10 years to fiHOW LONG???

Monti joined Hollande in cornering Merkel in a conference call this week with U.S. President Barack Obama, who has criticized Europe for failing to get to grips with the crisis. The four-way call focused on “developments in Europe,” the White House said in a statement.  

TRANSLATION: Obama's fucking fed the fuck up that these fucking lazy fucks are putting his re-election in jeopardy by driving the entire fucking world into fucking recession. He's so fucking fed up he's doing conference calls. I'm sure he's explained to them how short their miserable fucking lives are going to be if Romney wins, because you damn well know all this fucking Euro chickenshit is going to be blamed on that black guy across the fucking ocean, it's always the fucking black guy who gets blamed, and don't fucking make me call China down here to give you a fucking whipping with the belt.

“Countries that are at the core of the system and which have had the huge merit of instilling the culture of stability to the European Union in the first place, most notably Germany, should really reflect deeply but quickly,” Monti said via video link to the Brussels conference. “Europe should really accelerate the efforts, as the European Commission is doing, in order to limit the contagion.”  

TRANSLATION: Monti's saying it's about fucking time someone fucking does something, and he's looking right the fuck at that obstructionist lazy fat fuck Merkel as he says it. He also notes Germany's made a few trillion in profit off their perpetual trade surplus and cheap currency, thanks to the Euro, and Germany fucking knows they've had it good the past ten years, and now it's time to give back.

You know... before the fucking world goes under.

“People are actually working on finding ways that the ESM could be used to recapitalize banks,” Draghi said. “The issue is not so much the use of ESM money to recapitalize banks but whether this could be done directly without having to go to governments.” 

With creditor countries including Germany and Finland insisting they must be consulted before such funds are deployed, Draghi said there is a risk that “we have a big pot of money but nobody can touch it.”

TRANSLATION: the banks can be fixed; but Merkel's holding everyone up because she's busy putting on nuance to cover up her second fucking helping of cheese the lazy fat fuck holy fuck what the fuck.

Fuck fuck fuck.

What do you bet that 10 years from now, the world will recognize Merkel as the one who nearly led the world to disaster, and Monti & Hollande as the saviours of the European economy?

quick update

As of this moment, GDX has broken below its short-term EMAs.



Silver also seems to be acting funny. Plus the big silver plays like SLW don't seem to be working right.

There was a fancy v-bottom in SPY this morning (I actually made money going long volatility, believe it or not).

IEF went 3-sigma outside its upper bollinger, but then moved back.

Overall, I'm concerned. Mainly cos GDX might go back down now. I ran some fibonaccis and nothing seems to match up with a moving average right now, except maybe 62%.

Let's see how this plays out, eh?

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Platinum and palladium are fucking boring, but oh well, it's still Daniela

And here's an interview Daniela did with Erica Rannestad about platinum group metals outlook zzzz....





Kevin O'Leary interviewed by Daniela Cambone

Speaking of Berwick....

I decided to look on YouTube for him. Well, he had a video up from PDAC, where he was talking with that little guy what's-his-name, and then I noticed the little guy's head was blocking my view of Daniela Cambone....

So I decided instead to go searching for what Daniela's been up to.

And here's a very good recent interview (of course, it's Daniela) with Kevin O'Leary, on gold stocks, why they suck, and what is a much better idea for playing the commods market.



And while we're on the subject, although O'Leary also uses my trademarked "gold miners suck™", I don't mind.

Why?

Because Kevin O'Leary's a mensch. He's paying to use my trademark. In liquor, sure, but at least it's Hennessy and it's quite tasty thank you very much.

Speaking of which, where the fuck IS Jeff Berwick now that we need him?

Look, where the fuck is Jeff Berwick?

No! Where the fuck is the Casey crowd?

No! Where the fuck are all the orthodox goldbugs and their central thesis that paper fiat money is fast becoming worthless and only gold is the real true currency as decreed by Our Lord Jesus Christ?

There's all this news about a bank run starting in Greece. The assumption is that soon the runs will spread to Spain, Portugal, then Italy and France and then say goodnight Gracie goodnight Gracie.

(This is happening partly because of corporations wisely moving their accounts out of harms' way, but also partly because Europe inexplicably has no bank deposit guarantee scheme for the masses. And you thought they were socialist?)

Now if Greece dies, then Portugal will die, then Spain then Italy then France. Then the Euro monetary union dies. Then England dies then the USA and China die then the whole world dies. Death death death, doom doom doom, die die die.

So why would you keep your Euro account in Euros, even if in a German bank? Deutsche Bank will collapse too, if the Euro Doom unfolds. But - if you think about it, why would you then want Sterling instead of Euros? Why would you bother to buy London real estate like the ruling class of Greece and Italy and Spain are doing?

Why even hold dollars?

Why aren't Europeans putting their savings into gold?

The goldbugs are really asleep at the switch here. They've got 500 million possible new converts just waiting for them in Europe. Why aren't they communicating? They even have press outlets amenable to your thesis that can get your name out to a million readers! Why isn't Jeff Berwick being interviewed in the Daily Mail? Why isn't Doug Casey writing a daily column in Libero? Why aren't you guys appearing live on TG24 and SkyNews?

Seriously, guys, fuck! Everyone over there agrees the Euro is collapsing. Why don't you get them buying gold? And gold miners, don't forget! And silver! And silver miners!


How I lost all respect for Peter Brandt

Peter Brandt posted today that gold is in danger of collapsing $250... unless, of course, it closes above $1585.

I.e. unless, of course, it doesn't collapse.

Hm....



#1, "A is going to do X unless it instead does not-X" is not actionable information and you have now ass-raped a trillion innocent electrons for no fucking reason.

#2, I'm sure you posted the exact same thing a few weeks ago and gold also didn't collapse then. Ah... here it is. April 24th. How'd that work out?

#3, How does that jibe with gold miners' all-in cash costs being $1200/oz and rising? Fundamentally, where's the demand destruction that's big enough to force closure of all the gold mines and whittle the entire market down to scrap-dealing and bullion-flipping?

Now, Gary Tanashian had this morning already posted a chart of gold in Euros that pretty much negates the "descending triangle" hypothesis. If anything, gold's in a symmetrical triangle in Euros, and hasn't broken its supporting EMA.

But I guess Brandt doesn't read Gary. Snif.

Nevertheless. Brandt's post engendered a response just a few minutes ago by Robert Sinn (he of the shameless and bald-faced attempt to steal Market Narrative's trademarked "gold miners suck™"), where he also pointed out that Gold:Euro is still holding up, in fact it's a bull pennant you nob, and, frankly, Peter Brandt is a piker anyway.

Maybe Sinn reads Gary? I dunno, dude: the timing looks suspicious. And Sinn's already got a reputation for stealing other less-popular bloggers' ideas. Meh... my verdict, Sinn reads Gary, off with his head, case closed where's my lunch.

Now originally, upon reading the original Brandt post I was sufficiently incensed to write my own blog post decrying his idiocy, and fuck pal didja know there's other gold consumers than the United States, you know you're charting gold in USD, and gold to da moon Alice, end the Fed and vote Jeff Berwick and so on... but now that Sinn's taken care of things, I don't have to.

Instead I'll leave you with a gold:rupee chart. India, you might have heard, is a major consumer of gold. Like, the biggest. Like, as in, gold:rupee is more important than gold:USD. So how's, um, gold, um, doing in, um, y'know... rupees?



Interesting! It hasn't even broken its supportive EMA, and now the standard MACD is triggering up. Do you think this means something?

UPDATE: In fact, looking at that meaningless MACD, if you believe in that sort of shit, then it's saying gold in rupees has done nothing more sinister than spending 6 months working off an overbought condition - with a nicely horizontal channel that doesn't even violate the longterm uptrend god damn that looks so fucking sexy.

I'll end with some advice from famous vulture capitalist Willard "Mittens" Romney:


Morning perspective

Now, USD's exploded up,


As have the bonds....



And yet the S&P is still where it was 4 days ago....



As are the miners.



If one of these last two should be expected to fail, it's probably the S&P.

It is heartening to see that the GDX hasn't yet fallen thru its EMA(8).

Who knows. Nobody in the juniors is puking stupidly this morning.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Fibonaccis a few hours later

So SPY turned back after dinging its 38%, more or less kinda.

It was at that exact instant that some news came out. Now, you go pick the delusional fantasy that you feel best explains things:

1. Egan-Jones picked the exact moment of the Fibonacci test to put out a letter condemning Spain to dooooom.
2. The market picked the exact moment of the Fibonacci test to give a shit what the fuck Egan-Jones thinks for the first time in like evarrr.

Because we already knew Spain's in a tight spot. Ratings agency downgrades aren't news.

Funny nuff, $SPX dropped to about 1332, USD impulsively rose, gold and silver fell... and then everything went back to normal. Oh, except the PMs. Prolly takes a few days for the market to recover from algo-controlled puking into the bids of meaningless paper representing ten years' production.

Anyway... today doesn't frighten me. Yeah, iz teh outside day red candel, but it only went back to the EMAs. Meanwhile SLX and KOL aren't damaged, and those are analogues to China, and China's teh newz.

HUI intraday

Here's HUI as of nowish:

Kinda funny that it went uppish, but then came back downish and just daintily touhed the EMA(8) and EMA(16) that form a nice little cluster just above the mean of the Boll(20). Right around some major May pivot points. All this after the RSI(8) went the highest it's been since PDAC.

So I guess you could take HUI 417, or even HUI 410 (the Boll mean), as a good entry point... limit your downside risk with a tight stop (since if it goes below 410 it's a dead puppy), maximize your upside risk. Eh?

Then again, China doom Greece doom USA doom commodities doom PMs doom rise of the machines doom. So maybe you should sell into this price before it gets any worse! Sell! Sell!

After all, it's a bearish outside day! I mean! Look at that candle! Oh noez!

I dunno. On a day like this, back when $HUI was going up, I'd be all over a day like today buying my ass back into the market 100%.

What happened at 11:30?

I guess Egan-Jones downgrading some Spanish thing or other makes the market puke, USD shoot up, thus PMs puke, and $VIX shoots up.

Whatever.

Sabina Silver's PEA

Sabina came out with their PEA.

Sabina's present parket cap (at $2.20) is $350M.

The PEA for Back River prices at post-tax NPV(5%) of $650M. That's assuming $1250 gold, which is conservative, but it seems to be all the rage these days to assume gold's going down from here.

Pre-production capital is listed at $450M.

What bothers me is that, while I'm working from memory here, their Xstrata stream is only worth something like $250M at conservative silver prices, so they'd still have to finance to build the project, which is still a few years away in any case (they can't finance Back River's capex off that stream unless they sell the stream).

So, without opening Excel, it doesn't impress me enough to want to buy.

Besides, nobody likes the North-of-60.

Checking in on the rationality of investing in Russians

Let's check in on Where's The Gold:

Yup! Still stupid to invest with Russians.

BTW, if you came here looking for info on WTG, you might want to google the company, I thought I read something recently about an imminent de-listing. I may be wrong though. I know I saw some other thing about Deutsche Bank's loan facility or something. Yeah... you might want to check up on things.

Or just sell because the company's run by Russians.

And congrats, awesome work, those of you who bid it up to 10 cents last week, thinking that the stock hit bottom. You've only lost 40% in 2 days.

Uninformed use of Fibonaccis

Here's SPY:

The 38% Fib retrace of the latest fall gets us to 134.11 on SPY.

So if Fibs mean anything, maybe they'll mean something now? I'm only saying.

Ship is turning?

Okay, first remember my comments a week or two ago about $HUI. That was when there was discussion throughout the blogoverse about whether the gold miners had bottomed.

Next, look at these four charts:

Has EEM bottomed? it's above the EMA(8) which we haven't seen in a while. Standard MACD is about to trigger up.

Has China bottomed? it's above the EMA(8) which we haven't seen in a while. Standard MACD is about to trigger up.



Has steel bottomed? it's above the EMA(8) which we haven't seen in a while. Standard MACD is about to trigger up.



Has copper bottomed? it's above the EMA(8) which we haven't seen in a while. Standard MACD is about to trigger up.

Funny that we now see that China, the Emerging Markets (which follow China), and the industrial metals (which follow China) are all turning up just 2 weeks after the miners turned up.

One leads the other, eh?

So can all the doomsters shut the fuck up about teh doomz?

And yes this could just be a small rally before collapse continues. But I find the timing of this turn-up to be a bit significantish.

Monday, May 28, 2012

Meanwhile, Greece is a nation of swarthy welfare bums and criminals

Despite the fact it is from ZeroHedge, I have to link to this story anyway.

It's just so that you can see a picture of the records room at the Greek Ministry of Finance.

Those of you who can comprehend some vague amount of German can also watch the attached documentary in that Zerohedge article, which kinda should explain to you why the rest of Europe really should get around to kicking Greece to the curb.

And once you've seen that you'll understand why today's interview of Alexis Tsipras in der Spargel will do nothing other than piss off Germans. Frankly, I'd have to bet that the popular mood throughout Europe is strongly against putting up with Greek chickenshit.

It's throwing money into a black hole.

And yes, this has been going on for this long because the Eurocrats are just as corrupt as the Greeks.


Maybe the Germans are starting to figure this out. Their skulls are made out of fucking 1500mPa concrete, but given enough time you can beat some fucking sense into their heads.

Kiron Sarkar is bullish.

I respect Kiron Sarkar's analysis more than most - he seems to have gotten a lot of things right, especially recently where for the past several months his weekly refrain has been "I still don't see the point of the miners and remain short".

Now he's gone and switched to being long equities. And closed his miner shorts. And though he's still short Rupee and short Euro, he's now feeling bullish on China.

Read his blog post from today - especially the part at the end about China.

Aw hell, I'll copy and paste for you, since it seems that Sarkar did too:

CHINA – Important change of view from Dong Tao, our Chief NJA Economist.  Dong and Trina Chen (materials analyst) have been more accurate in predicting China’s growth and policy path in recent quarters than most internally, and central to their thinking has been the view that expectations of pre-emptive stimulus measures being put in place would be sorely disappointed.  That view is changing.  Dong notes a significant shift in the program approval process at the NDRC, which stemmed from a State Council meeting on May 23rd, in which the Premier stated the need for a “greater emphasis on growth”.  

In short, he thinks the government has started a new round of fiscal stimulus, as local governments were asked to bring forward pending infrastructure projects last week.  How big could it be?  Clearly significantly smaller than in 2009, when the initial investment campaign was RMB 4 trillion; our initial projection is that it could be between RMB 1 trillion – RMB 2 trillion.  This could rightly be viewed as a regressive step, as it is clearly at odds with the idea of rebalancing growth from investment to consumption.  

Nonetheless it would appear to be a decisive reaction to a deteriorating external growth environment, and may be accompanied by a 25bp cut in the policy lending rate in the coming months, as well as RRR cuts of 50bps per quarter for the rest of the year.   

The question one has to ask oneself is how many times in the last 10 years it has paid to bet against China’s ability to manage itself out of trouble. It may be the case that with one more roll of the policy dice, they can prevent 2012 being the year in which the China story finally unravels.