Saturday, May 19, 2012

The next most funniest thing on the internet right now

The next most funniest thing on the internet is about a guy who took the approval ratings of the GOP candidates graphed over time, rotated them about an axis (remember your calculus?), generated solids, produced physical copies through a 3D printer, made molds, and then used black silicone to produce GOP approval rating buttplugs.

The story is here:

Visualizing GOP presidential candidate approval ratings as 3D printed buttplugs

It's especially comedic, btw, because the buttplugs are based on the Republican presidential candidates, and they seem to correspond almost exactly with how uncomfortable the thing was that each candidate had wedged up the ass during the campaign. E.g., Gingrich must need reconstructive surgery.

The funniest thing on the internet right now

The funniest thing on the internet right now can't be embedded because jest.com are fucking fascists.

So you're forced to go follow this link to watch the video, and I suggest you do:

Gilbert Gottfried reads Fifty Shades of Grey

It's enough to make you shit yourself laughing.

Then again, Gilbert Gottfried could read G.W.F. Hegel's Phenomenology of Mind, or Cormac McCarthy's The Road, or a bolts & fasteners catalogue, and make you shit yourself laughing.

Friday, May 18, 2012

Facebook - only post I'll do, short, concise, the end.

Every idiot on the web has blah-blah'd about Facebook today.

I'll keep it short:

1) I don't use it, don't care. Its content consists entirely of sentence fragments and rap lyrics, and as a rule I stay away from any site that tries to sniff my Outlook for email addresses.
2) You don't need to buy an IPO on day one. In fact historical data indicates only fucktards buy on day one - it's as dumb as (say) rushing out and buying 1,000,000 shares of Baja at market just cos Otto Rock said he'd write it up this weekend.
3) Hey, remember MySpace?
4) Hey, remember LiveJournal?

Friday videos: the wittier version

There is a message here for all the goldbug analysts who have called 9 of the last 0 bottoms over the last year in the $HUI:




Get it?

PS sorry Otto, I just had to take the idea for myself.

Further market comment, using weekly charts instead

Here's why I'm not impressed just yet:

All GDX is doing is recovering from its 3-sigma weekly condition earlier this week. We had two such white candles in April and they didn't work out well. Yes, there's volume this time, and that's good.


All GDXJ is doing is resolving what looks like a massive fucking dagger through the lower bollinger band that reached out to 4-sigma land.It's not even a white candle yet. GDXJ $20 would be a nice way to finish the week... you really think we can get there? In, um, a few hours?

I guess if GDXJ could finish next week at $22, we'd have a bullish abandoned baby pattern, and that's apparently exceedingly good. If we get there, then there should still be plenty of upside, so that's why I'm not interested in trying to bottom-tick the bottom right now, and think it silly that anyone would want to try.



And silver? Well, its weekly is a little nicer... though really its long term chart is still just painting out a triangle. In a month or two, maybe we can see $30-$32 for silver?

Oh well... apparently, market sentiment has changed: silver and gold aren't going to $0.00, and gold miners aren't buggy-whip manufacturers anymore. I guess that's a good thing. Again, realizing you're a fucktard is the first step to changing things, and this applies especially to the PM/miner market.

Market comment

Am I impressed yet?

Well, okay, yes, sorta.

GDX is up to the EMA(16).

Now of course it's failed at the EMA(16) five separate times since March. That's why I remain agnostic: I consider the EMA(16) to be an important test. It's also failed several times since March whenever it's bounced back to RSI(8)=50. So we're still in test mode.

But if we pass the test this time, it must be cos something's different now, no? Well, what's different now is that silver's going up.


And silver's failed at the EMA(16) before too. But it never failed after bouncing up from an RSI(8) of 9. And hey, look! MACD is about to trigger up! The HAL9000s running the paper market might like that.

But I still won't be happy about silver til it's over $29 and steady. Silver is an economic metal, and the dominant narrative right now still assumes we're careening into a worldwide depression.

(Unless, um, some new news has just come out today....)



And GDXJ, which is correlated well with silver, has only gotten up to the EMA(8) as of this writing (10:30EST). So that's not impressive.

 Then again, another impressive thing in all 3 charts (plus a lot of good miner charts) is that we're seeing big V-bottoms. No reason to think that'll continue; but at a V-bottom on GDXJ (for example) tells me that the market has now realized that GDXJ trading at $17.50 was utterly fucking stupid.

Once the market has realized it's been utterly fucking stupid, I think you can assume the panic-selling will go away for good. So, that's a good first step: the market has now realized it was utterly fucking stupid selling BTO at $2.80 and so on.

Anyway, today is Friday, and that's "retail day". So I guess we can't read too much into what's going on here. The machines might not be here, any long white candle might just be retail buying back in (or averaging down). Plus so many markets were out in 3-or-4-sigma this week (gold, US dollar, 10-year US bond, silver, miners) that maybe the present move is just a correction back into statistical normalcy. I'm seeing no sea-changes outside of GLD SLV and the miners.

So, I will wait for next week to confirm whether the miners no longer suck™.

Friday videos: surrender.

It doesn't mean much. It doesn't mean anything at all. The life I've left behind me is a cold room....

I've crossed the last line, from where I can't return - where every step I took in faith betrayed me, and led me from my home....

Sarah McLachlan, with one of the only two songs by her that I like:



But those two are damn good, lyrically. Especially for goldbugs in this day of doom.


Thursday, May 17, 2012

Short Side of Long today

Go read the latest post from Short Side of Long.

Lot of interesting trivia there. E.g. - gold finished yesterday 4SDs down, which is nuts. $USD has had its longest continuous upstreak ever. $USD sentiment is overly bullish, while gold bullishness is at 5%.

So I guess a rebound like today is necessary just to put things back into a more rational range.

Here's the counterfactual to today's silver/gold/miners pop

You already know silver up gold up your favourite miners strongly up.

I'm personally very happy to see BCM up nearly 20%, since I'm gravid with BCM. It's about the only thing I have.

But consider these charts:


Brazil still collapsing.


China still collapsing.


US 10-year bills still strongly up.


Copper weak.


Coal still collapsing.


Steel still collapsing.

This tells me the narrative isn't one of hopefulness about global growth driving silver and gold and the miners; rather, the narrative must be that silver and gold are going up because people now smell the kind of dooooom that makes everyone run to gold and silver.

So, it's nice to see and all. But I want to see if it wears off.

Also, while GT would probably say that this is good - after all, gold miners' cost inputs are going down! - he might look at these charts and think this is turnig out like a repeat of last spring's Eurodoom-driven run-to-the-PMs that he tends to speak unflatteringly of.

Maybe the downward trajectory of the PMs has completed? I want to see that first. Prove to me that gold and silver are now moving upwards, and that the market knows this; that will convince me more than anything else that I might want to hold miners again.


World Gold Council: tanks market Monday, levitates market Thursday

Article from Monday: World Gold Council: gold miners doomed.

Excerpt:

May 14 (Reuters) - Sharp increases in mining costs mean gold will need to reach $3,000 an ounce in five years for the industry to stay profitable, World Gold Council chief executive Aram Shishmanian said on Monday.
Miners currently needed a gold price of $1,300 to survive, Shishmanian said, but faced steep rises in mining costs, along with the cost of dividends and host nation taxes.
"If this continues for the next five years the gold price needs to be at least $3,000 just to stay in the business," he said. However, he was optimistic sustained demand would drive prices higher over the long term.

Result: gold miners puke.

Article from today: World Gold Council gold is going up forevarrr.

Excerpt:

Gold demand in China may surge as much as 30 percent this year as rising incomes boost consumption, helping the country topple India as the world’s largest bullion market on an annual basis, according to the World Gold Council.
Demand, which rose to a record in the first quarter, may gain to between 900 metric tons and 1,000 tons this year, from 769.8 tons in 2011, Albert Cheng, Far East managing director at the producer-funded group, said in an interview. Indian usage may drop to 800 tons to 900 tons, from 933.4 tons, he said.

Result: gold miners up 10%.

Insight from personal experience: when someone is so fucking bipolar that they scream about the end of the world one day and go on a crazed manic coke-bender 3 days later, you stay away from them until they calm the hell down. You don't volunteer to participate.

Insight from the newsflow: nice to pin your hopes on China when other people are saying China's going to collapse in a major liquidity crisis.

Market comment - ha ha fooled you!

Yes, GDX up GDXJ up SLV up and so on.

I haven't looked up why because I've been stuck answering people's questions at work all day.

I realize I was taunting analysts pretty severely yesterday. What I was really trying to do was to tell the market that I had completely thrown in the towel an wasn't believing one single thing - that I have gien up listneing to the analysts calling bottoms, because they were being made utter fools of by the continued collapses day after day.

And know what? It worked! The market's up today.

So is this the bottom?

Seriously, dude, no. I still don't believe it. GDXJ, GDX, SLV, SIL, COPX, GLD, SLW, FSM, and KGC are all still below their EMA(8)s, and that's my very first in a very long line of criteria for believing this collapse could be over. They have generally moved back into their bollinger bands though.

AUY has popped above its EMA(8) though, and is presently testing its EMA(16) which is only 2% below its Boll(20) mean line. BTO.TO looks similarly promising.

So all that means is, I now have hope that this could, in future, with more positive action forthcoming, prove to have been the bottom.

But for now I'm happy to let the bagholders make back the first 10-20% of the upmove, if it is indeed a bottom. In fact, when you think of it that way, there should at minimum be a monster re-test of this collapse coming soon. I don't need to take a position just yet.

Plus, as you recall, the world macro still fucking sucks. I'd be more interested in letting this stuff play out, while watching HVU.TO move back down in anticipation of a monster VIX move that could make me a 5-bagger in days.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

My goldbug letter-writer impersonation

OMG IT'S 9:15PM EST

I JUST CHECKED KITCO AND SILVER IS UP 1% SINCE 4PM EST ON CHINESE EARLY MORNING BUYING

THIS MUST SO BE A BOTTOM

BUY BUY BUY

Platinum and the worldwide infinite pukefest of dooooom

Platinum. Used for catalytic converters. Thus cars. Also magnets and anodes and alloys. Thus China and India should buy fucktons of it. Yeah? And want more in the future.

Problem is, nobody wants to mine it in South Africa because they seriously talk about nationalization. And Norilsk is a fucking shithole run by dirty Russians. That's 90% of world production right there - so you'd think there'd be a perception of utter lack of supply.

So... um... if this world growth story still holds, Pt should be doing well, eh?

Eh?

Oh dear... down over 10% in 3 days and it's only Wednesday. It's like a fucking junior gold miner stock.

Well, I'm sure the weekly chart will give us a bit of context, I mean it can't be tha-


Oh my. It's like a fucking junior gold miner stock.

No, today was not a bottom.

No, this wasn't a bottom.

I'll show you how today wasn't a bottom.

When a profitable growth-oriented low-cost gold miner decides to barely close back within the bollinger bands, on poor volume, and ends 6% below its EMA(8), that's not a bottom.


When a profitable growth-oriented low-cost gold miner decides to barely close back within the bollinger bands, on unimpressive volume, and ends 7% below its EMA(8), that's not a bottom.


When an undervalued low-margin large guaranteed buyout property still can't get back within its bollinger bands, even on significant volume, and ends 6% below its EMA(8), that's not a bottom.


When a profitable low-cost miner still is below its bollinger bands, on significant volume, completely unable to even crawl back to the 20-day median, and ends 7% below its EMA(8), that's not a bottom.


When a silver streamer getting cheap silver and selling it for more can only barely get back into its bollinger bands, and ends 7% below its EMA(8), that's not a bottom.



When a decent silver miner is still plummeting way below its second bollinger band, 11% below its EMA(8), that's not a bottom.

If those pictures aren't clear enough for all you goldbugs (and newsletter anal ysts) out there, maybe you can get a clearer idea of what I'm on about with this:


Klar?

Have some fucking standards, people. Have some fucking standards for what constitutes a bottom. Don't try to bottom-tick your entry back into this cluster-assrape, at least until the goldspace can first prove to you that it's finally done puking its entrails out like a fucking sea cucumber.

And I'm sorry, but I only see one reason for this collapse, and it fucking well ain't fear of Greece. Unless people are really fucking stupid.

You don't understand China, roundeye barbarian.

Business Insider has a good article today on how you don't savvy China.


Survive the coming robot uprising!

You up early too?

Yeah, I can't sleep either.

I just watched this:



Make sure you survive the coming robot uprising! Watch the whole thing!

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

On ZeroHedge and neo-Nazism....

By the way, on ZeroHedge there's a link to a video interview where the leader of Golden Prawn suggests there were no death chambers at Auschwitz.

I don't suggest you watch it, cos it's the same old boring bullshit that neo-Nazis have been blabbing on about forever. If you've listened to polite discussion from a neo-Nazi before you've already heard it all. Though he does make a good point that the Greek left was actually funded by Stalin (same as we saw here in Canada - no, not the NDP, but the CPC/CPC-ML and some of the unions like the one my dad was in).

No, the reason I give you a link to this article on ZeroHedge is so you can read the comments section, where about 70% of the usership comes right out as neo-Nazi.

ZeroHedge isn't a bunch of clever hedge fund employees; it's just a bunch of queerboys from the US Patriot movement. Remember that next time some popular blogger links to a ZH article.

Most boring fact evarrr: police are Nazis

Funny little story on greekreporter.

More than half of all Greek police officers voted for the neo-Nazis.


Who could have ever predicted that police have a natural affinity for neo-Nazism, racism, and fascism?

I mean, this must be a real fucking outlier here.

Who is John Galt, Otto?

Howls of derisive laughter, Bruce! Here's a screencap from IKN:


See, that's why I run Ghostery and Adblock and so on when I'm on the home browser. (Right now I'm on the browser that I get paid $39/hr to use.) Also, that's why I have never touched those Google Blogs "monetization" controls - it's like practicing safe sex, but on the internet.

(PS yes, Otto Rock from IKN is really named "Bruce". Add that to your file, all you Ottostalkers!)

(PPS - "Greeks apologize with huge horse" - now that is funny. However, they'd have to borrow money to hire Turkish carpenters to do the work for them cos nobody in Greece knows how to put in an honest day's work.)

Bob Moriarty on Gold Report, loved Canaco as of yesterday

So Bob Moriarty was featured on the Gold Report yesterday or so.

Seems one of the companies he likes is Canaco Resources. I quote:

"One of the real low-hanging fruits has to be Canaco, which went from an $800 million (M) market cap a year ago to about $80M or $100M now. The stock has gone from $8/share down to $0.88/share and the company has only about $0.60/share in cash. But it's worth $800M. Its intercepts are fabulous. No question whatsoever, it's going to be a mine. It has no particular issues."

Then today it came out with news... something like 700K indicated or something. I dunno, you look it up. Point is, this is what happened on the chart:



So... how's Canaco working out for you, Bob? I guess you could probably buy it all up for its 60 cents cash, as long as they promise to never spend any more of it on anything.

EDIT: of course, Bob's not alone in the wilderness here. Other anal ysts who've recently recommended CAN to their clients have included TD's Daniel Earle, Canaccord's Nicholas Campbell, CIBC's Jeff Killeen, and... Brent Cook. In Cook's favour, he got them right back out a few days later... but even still, the lesson to take from this is that analysts fuck up too.

Get 'chall summa dat plum-bum!

The world's unsexiest metal, and thus Jim Rogers' favourite, is in short supply....

Lead Shortage Looms in ’13 on Record Demand for Batteries

Monday, May 14, 2012

dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom

A hopeful goldbug might think with $BPGDM at 10%, we're near a bottom....



But I look at $BPMATE and realize we have a lot farther to fall, if Satan so wills it.





All your dooooom are belong to us

ME&A 3-sigma down lateral support gone channel support gone say goodnight Grace goodnight Gracie.


Brazil 3-sigma down channel support gone volume exploding say goodnight Grace goodnight Gracie. 


Indonesia 3-sigma down longterm uptrend line blown say goodnight Grace goodnight Gracie.


Peru 3-sigma down lateral support gone channel blown say goodnight Grace goodnight Gracie. 



Thailand looming on the precipice... I'll go out on a limb and proclaim "say goodnight Gracie goodnight Gracie" for this one too.

Nowhere to run! Nowhere to hide!

Coal is in the 3rd sigma, RSI=12.


Copper's in the 3rd sigma.


Cotton's way out in the 3rd sigma, RSI=11.


Grains are 3rd-sigma, RSI=21.



USO's only recovering from a week of 3rd-sigma, but RSI=15.

(And that week of 3rd-sigma on the chart tells you that maybe you don't want to buy something just cos RSI is low and the price is way outside its 2SD bollinger band.)



And steel? 3rd-sigma.

 Know what? Maybe it's just some gigantic hedge fund who's panicking to unwind its long positions. I mean, is Asian growth really so bad that these have to collapse like this?

In any case... this tells me the wheels are really falling off of stuff, like, everywhere.

Taking bets....


Anyone wanna bet that 41's the bottom in GDXJ?




Given that AR's still going down?




And BTO, which is profitable, is still going down?




And SLW, which gets free silver from people, is down 40% from its recent peak?

There's no better feeling than being out of this market.


Sunday, May 13, 2012

Things that always end badly, #6: borrowing money from Russians

Century Mining White Tiger Gold came out with a fun news release:

White Tiger Announces Proposed Loan Transactions and Rights Offering

The mining.com article linked to takes care of the sardonic interpretation side of things, and as an aside I'd like to suggest that from now on Otto Rock email the author, Frik Els, with all things concerning Century WTG instead of me because frankly, once a company:
  • borrows money from Russians;
  • borrows money from the Russians who own a controlling interest in the company;
  • seeks to borrow money from the Russians who own a controlling interest in the company without bothering to seek shareholder approval;
  • BTW, parenthetically, seeks to sell off their one profitable mine, San Juan;
  • uses the line "financial hardship" in seeing avoidance of shareholder approval (which is funny, cos the majority shareholders are 2 Russians), which might be enough to get them delisted from the big board because the assumption at the TSX is that the companies they list aren't supposed to be suffering sufficient hardship to have to borrow from fucking Russians....
I no longer can take it seriously. It's like a bad Sascha Baron Cohen movie. Sorry, strike that: it's like a Sascha Baron Cohen movie.


DO NOT DO BUSINESS WITH RUSSIANS