Friday, May 11, 2012

Ha! Trivia for you

Sean Harris is the actor who plays Cesare Borgia's personal assassin Michelotto Corella on The Borgias.

But funny thing is, he also played Ian Curtis in 24 Hour Party People.

Neat, eh?

Eh?

No?

Well, I thought it was neat.

It's something to keep in mind when you're playing "six degrees" and you're stuck with Jeremy Irons.

Let's piss off some Americans

I assume that most goldbugs are also hardcore Jesus freaks (Jeff Berwick's friends excepted).

So now that my readership is again getting too large:



Not only, but also:

Let's take bets on BTO's earnings

OK, so B2Gold was up around $4.50 just a while ago. Right now it's at $3.

Frankly, I don't think the fear of nationalization in Nicaragua should be that serious.

So, since B2 is releasing earnings tonight after the bell, let's have a little bet. Just give me an over/under.

Will B2Gold's earnings be good? Or bad?

I'm going to bet (not with any money) that B2's earnings will suck. I'm betting this way because the market's been clobbering them. So either someone's got access to priveleged info, or they have spies on the ground who know B2's production situation.

We'll see who's right next week!

Adrian Day says don't worry

Bloomberg news: Gold Bulls Weakest in Month as Investors Buy Dollar For Some Reason

Most important is the opinion of Adrian Day, whose outlook I want to keep following because he actually seems to know what he's doing:

“Financial turmoil and easy money should see gold rally,” said Adrian Day, the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. “Once the liquidation phase is over, gold could rebound smartly.”

Friday Videos - Genesis singing about some weird sex thing

Genesis on Belgian TV in 1972 doing "Fountain of Salmacis", because if it's one thing the United Kingdom of Self-Consciously Large Britain and The Bits of North Ireland That Are Protestant really needs, it's for Belgium to be the keepers of their national heritage for them.




Seriously, where's the frickin' BBC recording of Genesis live? Probably got bulked and taped over with episodes of Last Of The Summer Wine, just like most of the Cook & Moore stuff.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Tye Burt, Sean-Boy and Chuck "Blue" Jeannes on why senior gold miners suck™

The Toronto Grope & Flail has an article on the senior gold miners, where such luminaries as Tye Domi Burt, Chuck "Blue" Jeannes and Sean-Boy have "put the band back together, man!" in a popular revisit of their March "we don't suck" tour.

Hey Tye! Here's a further question for you. Your company's trading at 10x adjusted net earnings; exactly how much should Kinross be trading for? I mean, being the CEO of a major gold miner, you probably know how to generate a stock price target, either discounted NPV or EPS multiple. That's simple accounting stuff, you probably took a class on it once. So, you wanna post a price target calc for Kinross, so we can see precisely how undervalued your company is?

And Chuck joins in: “Clearly, over the last two years or so, the market has not been willing to pay for the increased cash flow and earnings that we’ve generated based on rising gold prices.”

Wow, I feel so ashamed; I must have completely missed all that time this year when the senior miners have been generating increased cash flow and earnings. I guess I was stoned or something. But that's okay... the rest of the market's picked up on this, right?

Right?

I mean, with gold going up 60% in the last 3 years, you're right, you guys should be swimming in FCF. Your stock prices should be way up.

Survey says?

GG down 35% from peak....


I!Am!Gold!! down 58% from peak....


Kinross down... 68% or something?

Geez... I was going to suggest that you guys buy out Rio Alto, then all quit and make Alex Black the CEO of your companies. Maybe he could turn them around.

But at this rate, pretty soon he's going to be able to buy you guys out instead.

Don't argue with the market, the market doesn't care.

India is going to kill us all

Neat article Monday on Bloomberg about how Indian bacteria have evolved complete resistance to antibiotics.

Oh, not only that. They evolved the gene on a plasmid that allows for horizontal transfer of the gene to other species whenever they decide to do that freaky interspecies bacteria rumpy-pumpy that's so popular on Youporn.

Oh, not only that, but India's a big petri dish with open sewers where half the population poops in the street.

Oh, not only that, but the gene can definitely be transferred to the bubonic plague germ. Which India has in abundance. And tuberculosis. Which India has in abundance.

Oh, not only that, but this antibiotic immunity gene from India has already begun showing up in Britain and Scandinavia.

This is a more fitting moment to say "OMGWEALLGONNADIE".

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

To China or not to China?


Shanghai composite looks good, no?

So what the heck to make of these?







More on the GDX engulfing candle today

GDXJ is no longer printing an engulfing candle. Neither is GLDX or SIL. COPX is hideous.

So maybe the engulfing candle that you see this minute on the GDX chart was just a gap fill? Hm?


Though it might be that GDX going up is significant considering GLD and SLV and JJC are down, and UUP is strongly up, and JNK is slightly down, and EEM is down, and FXI is about to collapse through support.

After all, all of those signs taken together mean that GDX going up today is a contradiction of the very thesis for GDX. GDX should be down. GLD and SLV are below support, EEM/China markets are looking weak, and the risk-off trade is in full force; why should GDX go up?

Who knows? TA is bullshit. Personally I don't think the OMG Teh Greese is over just yet. Plus, Spain 10Y closed at over 6% today. There are also 100 Euro bank downgrades coming down the pipe this week.
 
Maybe it's simply that every gold miner analyst in the world has called yesterday a bottom.
 
Then again, maybe that's enough? The prices we were seeing for some of these stocks were utter bullshit anyway, no? Then again, maybe FVI is only worth $3 if silver collapses to $20, eh?
 
I'm going to go all Dominic Frisby and wait til the EMAs are in an upward trend. I bet Frisby hasn't lost any money these past few months! I bet Frisby's laughing at us all! Damn you Frisby! Damn you and your foolproof market timing system!

Who knows anymore!

So for some weird reason, though today gold and silver and copper are down, GDXJ is painting a really bullish really engulfing candle. Your favourite stocks are flyig back up.

Don't ask me WTF is going on. But GDXJ is still down a third from a couple months ago, and is still below the EMA(8) which is only the first criterion for me to take any interest in it.

We might just be entering a period of higher volatility.

These stocks have a lot higher to go to recover, so I'm going to sit out for now.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Jim Sinclair has something to say....

Jim Sinclair has something to say, so I with my little 400-hits-a-day blog should be able to get away with reposting much (not all) of it. After all, you were going to read it anyway, right?


Jim Sinclair is not simply a gold bug; he successfully has called every major move in the precious metal — both up and down — over a generation. But he is not merely a market guru either. Sinclair has had a love affair with markets for 50 years. He has owned brokerages, clearing firms, mining companies and a precious metals dealer. His Sinclair Group of Companies, founded in 1977, offered brokerage services in stocks, bonds and commodities operating in New York, Kansas City, Toronto, Chicago, London and Geneva until he sold them in 1983. At one time he was considered the largest gold trader in the world, but today he is running his African-based Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Company and the MineSet web site that provides unique macroeconomic information to his loyal followers. Sinclair is a good person to listen to.

Futures Magazine: You have been right on gold for years. How?
Jim Sinclair: Gold has been a primary focus of mine for 50 years; I’m 71, if you put enough time into a subject you probably ought to get to know it. It became obvious to me that gold had performed extraordinarily well as a currency vs. the dollar; it performed very well in the 1980s and it performed very well on the downside. It was obvious to me that a turn was coming in 2001 and we reached a high in the U.S. currency and accordingly I felt we reached a low in gold.
FM: As opposed to some gold analysts, you have not been a perma-bull.
JS: There was an article in The Wall Street Journal in the 1980s that said “Bull takes off his horns,” which dealt with my feeling that the gold market had maximized its price and for at least 15 years it would not be central to investor interest. I put an ad in Barron’s in 1974, which they had a hard time with but finally accepted that [stated] “Gold at $900.” My call over the past 10 years or so has been $1,650. It has gone beyond that; I put it as a minimum it would trade at in 2011. My calls in gold have had reasons and so far have been accurate.
FM: You have done so many different things; talk about your background.
JS: I was a general partner at two New York Stock exchange firms. I have owned my own brokerage firm, clearing [members], arbitrage firm, minor metals dealer in London, and I began my sale of those when I called the top in 1980. I felt that the markets had to be approached in a different way and the things that I had done in the 1960s through 1980 weren’t applicable. I was rumored to be the largest gold trader in the world back in the ‘68 to 1980 period and that was a great compliment. Not necessarily true, but I was a significant trader and bear in mind I was a kid and I had no eraser on my pencil and didn’t believe I could be wrong. As you mature you find out you can be. Carrying the type of commitment I carried in those days right now would put me in the hospital if not the emergency ward because of the volatility of the markets. The ownership of the gold companies was simply a different way of approaching the gold market. I am a CEO and president of a public company that is involved in businesses in Tanzania, East Africa.

FM: The bear market in gold that began after the 1980 peak lasted 20 years. Where are we in the lifespan of the current bull market?
JS: My first prediction was 15 years, so I was wrong, it lasted 20 years. Right now, in Gann terms, we are at the beginning of the fifth wave. I would say in terms of time, the first possible period for maximizing a price on gold is early 2015. [Currently the market] simply might be the same as when gold went over $1,000 the first time and went back down to $750-$800. That was a shift in Gann terms; we may be in a similar shift right now.
FM: Gann?
JS: I am primarily a fundamentalist, but I have a tremendous respect for timing and timing is technical.
FM: What are the factors that are affecting gold? Do you look at traditional supply and demand factors, or is gold being moved by larger geopolitical concerns?
JS: You have to look at traditional supply/demand first, but the question is, are we dealing with a commodity or are we dealing with a currency? Historically gold has been a currency; [currently] gold is acting as if it is a currency. The price that gold went to [on its low] at $248 per oz. was perfect performance in terms of a currency. The price that gold is now, $1,660, is perfect performance in terms of a currency. We were in a unique period of time where we may very well be changing our monetary system as a product of the various strains and as a product of the means of meeting these crises in the marketplace. The great default was handled magnificently in terms of public relations and in terms of financial underpinnings to the point that it almost became a non-event. Yet it is an event, and the failure of sovereign debt is something that factors into all currencies, not only the currency of the debtor who failed. This period we are going through now, which I believe is a pause similar to the [one] that took place the first time it went over $1,000, is not terminal in terms of the market having maxed out its price but rather a shift during a period of psychology where the means to overcome the problems have, in a market sense, been successful. Yet, everything has consequences and the consequences for the means of overcoming the problems are yet to be faced.
FM: What do you mean by changing our currency status?
JS: Well, government moving more into the system than away from the system; more into central banks than out of central banks. We are not making a voluntary change, but circumstances are bringing about a change. There was a meeting of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) [recently] that discussed setting up their own [International Monetary Fund] and also their own currency bloc. The euro is inexplicable right now above $1.30 if you heard all of the bearishness on it. The euro is probably going to be with us for a very long time and will come through change solidly. The dollar was the reserve currency of choice and became the reserve currency by default, meaning you just had it and it has recently begun to be replaced by other currencies as an international settlement mechanism.
FM: Our last profile suggested it would take at least 20 years to replace the dollar as a reserve currency.
JS: I think that is wrong. The dollar isn’t going to be replaced; [it] always will be there, but as far as a settlement currency, weekly, almost daily, you see the dollar mechanism for settlement being replaced by other currencies. Especially by the internationalization of the Chinese currency. Nothing is going to replace the dollar, but it is the utilization and value that factor into markets.
FM: Will it be replaced as a global reserve currency?
JS: [It is] a global reserve currency by default. If the dollar was a global reserve currency by choice, international purchasing of U.S. Treasury instruments [would] be rising, not falling. All these headwinds against the dollar do not change it as a reserve currency but take it from a reserve currency of choice to a reserve currency by default. We are going to break down into three trading blocs: the yuan bloc, the euro block and the U.S. bloc. You already can see that by the Swiss having attached their currency to the euro instead of the dollar. That is the beginning of a currency bloc.

FM: You also mentioned the Brics having a bloc.
JS: The Brics [met on March 29] in India. According to the release on the meeting [they were] to discuss their own bank of an IMF type and also look toward increased settlement in contracts in their own currencies. Now the dollar will remain a major settlement currency, but the question of value deals with momentum of utilization, not with political opinions.
FM: How will that affect the U.S. economy?
JS: The net effect in the change of settlement is a mirror reflection of the emerging economic impact of others. I am not suggesting the U.S. goes down, I am only suggesting that when you have billions of citizens and you enfranchise a very small percentage of those in the position of consumers, you get the tremendous economic impact that you’ve noticed in China. China and India are headed to leading the world economies with the United States. Now who is going to be first, second and third is something that can be argued but the three major economic powers in the world are going to be the U.S., India and China.
FM: There are benefits to having the reserve currency. How will that change?
JS: There is a serendipitous but huge demand factor that a reserve currency enjoys as the settlement mechanism for international contracts. That is the dollar weakness now. Part of that demand factor will be going away as a result of utilization of other currencies that didn’t exist prior to the machinations that we just have gone through since 2008. It will take away some of the predominance--politically, socially and economically--that is inherent with a reserve currency and with sound monetary management of that reserve currency. This is what gold is all about. Gold is the currency of choice. The difference between gold as a currency of choice is that gold has no liabilities attached to it. It owes nobody anything, while every currency has liabilities attached to it that have to be [considered] in its international valuation through the market mechanism.
FM: Are you talking for individuals or for governments?
JS: It’s both. The period we just have come through has shown an increase in public interest in gold through central banks who see selling and began accumulating. It also has shown a significant alternative investment that very large investors have selected and participated in.
FM: Is it in periods of stress that gold changes from a commodity to a currency?
JS: That is one viewpoint, but gold was perfectly valued at $248 in terms of the U.S. dollar. When you get down to price of production it is rare than any commodity can exist for a significant time below the cost [of production]. The argument that gold was a commodity at $248 has its basis in the cost of production but the argument that gold is a commodity is a failure to compare it to its currency role, which it was performing perfectly by declining for 20 years.
FM: What about silver?
JS: Silver is not money for one practical reason: It is too heavy. Gold is extremely portable. If you wanted to buy a pick-up truck you could put the money in your lefty pocket in gold but if you wanted to buy it with silver even at today’s prices you would need a pick-up truck full of silver. Silver is not as monetary as gold.


FM: In 2006 you put out an economic formula with some scary consequences, Can you explain it?
JS: The formula simply says that as business declines, it impacts government. It impacts government in terms of taxes received and the [affect] on government becomes a multiplier factor on the problem, because once the government becomes fiscally tight, [it] as a business begins to contract. The contracting business called government prevents a significant recovery [for] the general public and it is formula that feeds on itself until there is a point of intervention. When the intervention comes, be it a natural turn in economics or the civil conservation corps, you begin to have a significant turn in business. The fact that our recovery and our reaction to crisis has been to save the financial world but not to do much in terms of fiscal stimulation has resulted in bottom-bouncing rather than a significant economic recovery.
FM: The formula states rising interest rates will lead to geometric increases in U.S. debt to an eventual downward spiral “of unparalleled dimension.” 
JS: That occurs when you are not doing QE (quantitative easing). If you are not buying 62% of U.S. debt, which the Fed has done in the last 12 months, the cost of money would be astronomical. So you are forced into QE, that factors into gold.
FM: So they turned your theory around by intervention in interest rates?
JS: Artificial non-economic buying of government debt. If the Fed was not in the market doing what they are doing, rates would be wild. That is why some of the greatest names in the bond market have failed when they went bearish in bonds last year and they are more cautious this year. There are reasons to be bearish, but you can’t be bearish in light of QE. You don’t fight the government or fight the Fed. If you do that you stand in front of a locomotive, a locomotive [currently] dedicated to keep interest rates low.
FM: Is that a good thing?
JS: It is a necessary thing. Anybody who says that Bernanke or the U.S. Fed acted ineptly is not a practical person. They did what they had to do. If they had not performed as they did and as they are right now, circumstances would not be tolerable. They did what they had to do.
FM: Is it sustainable?
JS: No. Historically debt has to be paid and if you have financial difficulties, you can inflate your way out of it or deflate your way out of it. Historically inflating your way out of it has been the method chosen because of political prerogatives. The whole theory of kicking a can down the road is, economics will recover in order to heal the balance sheet problems, therefore making the methods used in monetary stimulation self-canceling.
Bernanke has done exactly what he had to do. If I was given the job of saving the financial industry in 2008 there was no other alternative. The whole thesis of that alternative is you do save business, and business turns. And because of the positive nature of the underlying business having turned, the liquidity can be drained practically without stopping the forward progression. That point hasn’t been reached. You are trying to play a symphony and if we [have] an economic recovery of significance, the symphony can be played. The reason gold is at a pause point is because there is an assumption that business activity is reaching a point that is take-off speed for recovery. That is the psychology of the marketplace. Gold is a reflection of that as a currency in competition with the U.S. dollar. Gold has a mind of its own, and it is to balance the international balance sheet of the United States or whatever the reserve currency is.

FM: What is it telling us now?
JS: What gold telling us now is the concern over [the] crisis is somewhat less, yet the underlying necessity of an economic recovery, which would be self-canceling in terms of liquidity injected into the economy via balance sheet repair, has yet to surface fundamentally. That battle will be fought in the relationship between the dollar and gold, and it will be determined in 2012, one way or the other. The bottom-bouncing we have been doing is not sustainable for a full year. One side of the team is going to win and one side of the team is going to lose. The swing factor is U.S. economics. If U.S. economics were to significantly improve, then there would be balance sheet repair. Then the dollar would be in a macro sense repairing itself, not requiring injections of liquidity to maintain the status quo. When the liquidity comes in only to fill a hole of loss in a banking system, net net zero. That is not going to make those banks lend anymore to individual businesses.

FM: Will the economic crisis come to a head this year?
JS: Either we do get a recovery or we don’t. A recovery is required in order to have a practical method for draining liquidity and not going into significant inflation. The operative [phrase] is ‘if there is a practical method.’
FM: Can’t we just maintain this moderate recovery?
JS: Carry-on of a moderate recovery would keep us doing this great choreographer’s financial dance that might work, but it doesn’t take us out of a situation where there are significant risks. When you put this much money [into] an economy, you should get a recovery much stronger than we have. That is why Bernanke was so surprised it didn’t occur. The reason why it didn’t occur is because the money went into the banks to fill a black hole or to make a derivative perform when the counterparty was insolvent. Anybody who says Bernanke is a dope or didn’t react properly is a fool. He did what he had to do.
FM: Was the situation that dire?
JS: It was dire beyond your wildest imagination. The recovery they made from that dire moment at the insolvency of Lehman is an accomplishment few people recognize. It would have been worse than [the Great Depression]; $1.144 quadrillion according to BIS in unfunded liabilities. Skeleton contracts floating around the earth. The reason we haven’t had a significant recovery is budget deficit restrictions forbidding the use of fiscal stimulation. You had Roosevelt go out and build roads, build trails, build [dams]. He did everything he knew to put a chicken in every pot. We have done nothing on that side because we can’t afford to, our deficit is too big. So all that could be done is what Bernanke did. His tool box you could have put in your vest pocket. It is called quantitative easing--there is no other tool.
FM: Isn’t there the risk of hyperinflation?
JS: If everything went wrong? Yes, but that is the extreme. The 62% of U.S. debt bought by the Fed in the last 12 months is debt monetization; debt monetization is the mechanism historically in every hyperinflation since Roman times. In order to keep rates low what do you do? You have to buy your own bonds. What is it called? Quantitative easing. What is quantitative easing? Debt monetization.
FM: What is the strategy to prevent hyperinflation?
JS: There is none. There is only one exit strategy and that is a significant economic recovery in which there can be practical means to drain the liquidity. If balance sheets of banks, individuals and businesses are improving because of earnings then if you drain liquidity from those balance sheets you wouldn’t bust them. All of this is a balance sheet consideration.

FM: So how do you drain liquidity?
JS: You would have many means of draining and they all would be ok because you wouldn’t bust the recovery; you might mute it. You might not go into the great bubbles we’ve gone into of asset values. You might have a feel of what 1950 to 1970 felt but for those of us who lived and did business in those times, it wasn’t so bad. This is the strategy. It is not a decision, it is an absolute necessity. There is no other way to keep interest rates down.
FM: We have been dancing around QE3; is it coming?
JS: It already happened: In December when the Fed did the [approximate] $600 billion in swaps that went to the ECB, [and] went from the ECB to the major banks of the ECB. The Fed had basically debt monetized the euro. Quantitative easing comes in many different ways. But there is no program for drain. The method of applied economics since Nixon is management of perspective economics: If the public perceives business is improving it will improve. Therefore, you can keep equity markets high, you should be able to manage the economic perspective of economic decision-makers.  The new school of economics is MOPE, management of perspective economics, and it is practiced everywhere.
FM: What if political pressure on Bernanke prevents him from continuing QE?
JS: That is why Ron Paul can’t win. The desire to do the right thing would be absolutely the wrong thing. The explosion you would hear economically, you would hear on Mars. The right things only can be done in conditions of economic ease. You can’t have a gold convertible currency. You can’t at this point in time violently drain the system. That whole mountain of notional value will descend on us all. The idea that we are going to have a change in administration, in an extreme sense, isn’t going to happen. The other candidates that have any possibility of being able to [beat] President Obama wouldn’t make much change. The only one in there who would make great change — and it would be wonderful intellectually and horrible practically — [is Ron Paul]. We are in a box, there is one way out, there is only one tool available, quantitative easing.
FM: Your equation that compares U.S.  external debts to  the value of U.S. gold reserves to calculate an indicative gold price has been used to give a potential gold price of more than $13,500 an ounce.
JS: That is how I [predicted] $900 in 1974 for that bull market. I don’t like to discuss it now because the debt has grown so much, but if you do the figures on international debt and say that the amount of gold that the U.S. says it has, times the price of gold would equal international debt, you’d be talking about $12,400 per oz. for gold.
FM: Is that still viable?
JS: It is not viable because of the environment. Every tool known to mankind would be used to prevent that from happening.
FM: Your web site, MineSet, includes a pretty eclectic group of international stories and commentary. Your motto is “Who will watch the watchers?” What does that mean?
JS: Who really sees what we talked about today? Do you recall that the BIS reduced the value of the notional value of the entire OTC derivatives from 1 quadrillion 144 trillion down to $700 trillion simply by changing the computer model for valuation? That is watching the watchers. The Swift system is a tool of combat that can disable a country economically with a flash of a delete button. It is so powerful that we scared the hell out of the Indians; they are already starting to talk accommodation.
FM: What are you trying to accomplish by it?
JS: I have a wealth of knowledge. I’ve made 35 OTC markets.  I’ve traded all my life. Markets run in my blood. Should I die with this knowledge or should I publish it? It’s not brain surgery, it’s called attention. I don’t have a lot of outside interests; I love my business and I love trading. I think this all of the time.
FM: Are you still trading?
JS: Of course. I can’t stop. Anything that is attractive at the time: From soybeans to rice to gold.
FM: Where is gold going this year?
JM: I am looking for the real range for gold, post-June, being $1,700 on the low end and $2,100 on the high end. We have a strong dollar policy that is interpreted as not allowing the dollar to drop precipitously but intervening to moderate the decline. We also have a weak gold policy, which is not to depress the price of gold but to intervene in the gold market so it doesn’t start screaming to extreme prices. The primary level it must not go above is $1,764 but that will fall in time and the next level after $1,764, I assure you, is $2,111 it must not go above. That is the weak gold policy and you do have the legal intervention in those markets by the Exchange Stabilization Fund and other entities. The Exchange Stabilization Fund is run by two people, the President of the United States and the Secretary of the Treasury.
What you don’t want gold doing when you are trying to calm the system, is go ballistic. Our entire world is a sea of algorithms and the people who intervene in the markets are more savvy than your general hedge fund industry. So the weak gold policy is not a policy to decrease the price of gold but a policy to prevent it from being a tattletale at the wrong time. Right now they think $1,764 is tattletaling and that has been the swing point for gold ever since it broke over $1,650.

For those of you who don't get it

For those of you who don't get it....

today's search fun



To answer your questions:

1. $BPGDM is back to 10 as of May 8th. Consider bookmarking stockcharts.com. I guess this time it won't pussy out and we can see 0. Or does it also go negative? And how long can it stay at 0? Til the puking's done?

2. I still like Calibre mining, but nobody else does.

3. Indeed, gold stocks do fucking suck. You are an intelligent person with a beautiful mind. Come back regularly for more on the topic.

4. No I don't know anything about Otto Rock quit fucking bugging me about him.

And by the way, quit looking here for answers.


Today's pageviews were up by 43% over last month's average.

I assume that's because gold sucked silver sucked miners sucked™. So bad that people kept coming here.

I'm sorry but you're not getting any answers from me when the wheels fall off the truck like this. Quit coming here. Fuck off, I'm busy at my day job. You want reassurance? Here: take all your money out of the market, go down to the reservation, and buy yourself a large quantity of illegal automatic weaponry.

All I can say is, puking gold and silver is either outright manipulation by the Zionist Occupation Government, or outright panic by margin-strapped Euro banks all trying to get to 100% cash and hide under their desks in anticipation of the coming mushroom cloud. ZeroHedge has one opinion, the FT has another. Fuck if I know which is true, but the effect of either is the same to me.

Gold losing $1600 is bad according to TA. The junior miner investors all watch the TA so they all pile out. Silver losing $30 is bad by round number theory. The algos running buy/sell decisions for the hedge funds see that and puke GDXJ. When this happens at the same time as OMG Teh Greese you get a rush for the exits. This time there was no significant bounceback at the end of the day in the miners even as S&P and Q bounced back.

Previous post showed a whole bunch of companies breaking down below, or even gapping below, their lower bollinger band. The market's gone 3-sigma negative, not just in chickenshit stocks but in the braindead-good ones too. A market failing to follow fundamentals, or even statistical norms, means only one thing.

Panic and fear.

Two. Two things. Panic and fear.

And risk-off. Three. Three things.

It lasts for today only. Or maybe it keeps on like this for the next month. Take your pick which makes you feel better. I got no clue.

But on a breakdown like this I grab my bugout bag, hop on my Vespa, and take the sideroads to my bunker in the Blue Mountains with the guns and the MREs and the guns with MREs in them. Don't short it, don't long it, just avoid it til teh stoopid stops. I'll be logging in with my solar-powered computer from time to time to see when GDXJ breaks back above its EMA(20).

If you want my advice, just go and form a heavily-armed militia. If that'll make you feel better.

All is well! Don't worry be happy!

Jim Sinclair says "All is well! Gold will come back! Miners will come back!"

Peter Grandich says "The bell is rung! Now's the time to pile back in!"

Eric Coffin says "It's this bad because it's a bottom! Buy buy buy! PS Yukon doesn't suck!"

Do you want to place a bet? Now that the USMSM is back to ignorantly fantasizing about the end of the Euro currency? How'd that work out last year?

We'll see....

Market comment, wailing and gnashing of teeth edition

Here's some pictures of market carnage for you.

Yamana. Major gold miner. Gap lower, pierced the lower bollinger.


B2Gold. Small gold miner with strong growth profile in Nicaragua and Namibia. Gapped down below lower bollinger. Rumours of imminent war between Nicaragua and Namibia.


Guyana Goldfields. Actually have gold, NAVPS of their property maybe $4-$6. Gap lower to lower bollinger, chasing $2.


Silver Wheaton. Owner of many silver streams. Streams often purchased long ago well under $10/oz Ag price. "Silver streams" translates into "free money for fuck's sake WTF". Gap lower, below the lower bollinger.


Silvercrest. Small silver miner, once thought to have a growth potential. Gap lower, below lower bollinger, price almost down 50% from this year's high. Once, long ago, before they had any mine at all, with silver at (I forget) maybe around $15, you were able to buy SVL at $1.

OK Tanashian, you win. $HUI 300 is a realistic target now.

Monday, May 7, 2012

Boot in the bitch-balls for Kirchner!

Ha! Nestorina gets a boot in the bitch-balls!

EU trade chief warns of imminent action against Argentina

European Union trade chief Karel De Gucht said Monday the bloc will shortly take action against Argentina's government, after its decision to seize control of oil giant Repsol's YPF subsidiary.
"We will soon be moving forward with a response to Argentina's action in the Repsol case, in particular," De Gucht said in a speech during which he complained of a "growing tendency towards protectionism across Latin America, bitch."

Argentine President Cristina Kirchner on Friday signed a bill expropriating 51 percent of YPF's stock from Repsol, its majority shareholder, sealing a measure that has roiled the country's trade ties with Europe.

"Argentina has also continued other trade restrictive policies, like its import-licensing regime, bitch," De Gucht added.

"And just last week we saw Bolivia take another step towards nationalising utility companies at the expense of a Spanish firm.

"These types of moves are of course a problem for Argentina and Bolivia -- which will find it harder to secure the international investment they need, bitches," he underlined.

Funny searches in my stats, and I'm a sweetie so I share them with you!!!


Funny searches on my blog today:



Is Brent Cook Otto Rock? No. In fact, with my secret inner knowledge and all, I've decided to sum up some immediately apparent differences for you with the following chart:



I might have 1 or 2 of those wrong though. But certainly the differences add up the less I think about them.

B2Gold buy or sell 2012? Fuck, the chart looks like puke, what do you think? Any downside left now? I'd think if Nicaragua goes to war with Namibia and nukes are involved, BTO might go down some more, but that's about it.

Is the market going to go down because of french election? well CAC40 and MIB and Spain went up, so... no. But I do understand your desire to puke profitable gold miner stocks into nonexistent bids. Please, keep it up, you utter fucking spineless cunt. Just don't come running to me asking which Seeking Alpha pundits to follow for tech stock reccies, or whatever you're going to move on to.

Free media that's fun to listen to: Tales from the Afternow

Meant to do this for a long time, recent conversation with someone reminded me.

One of my favourite guys out there is Sean Kennedy. You know Berwick? Kennedy is like Jeff Berwick, except utterly uncluttered with all that Ayn Rand/Ludwig von Mises libertopian ideology; instead he comes from the gawth EBM/William Gibson/guns & ammo/hacker/anarchist world.

He had a podcast called "NewsReal" that ran every day for maybe a year... then he formed a cult named KULT, immediately burned out, went on hiatus, and returned much later to do his podcast again, except switching to weekly to maintain sanity longer. The podcast was a "global sit-rep on corpolitical tyranny, technology and trends", and was basically on creeping government totalitarianism, hacking, military research, psy-ops, transhumanism, and so on. It was always a better listen when his sidekick was around to keep him from running off the rails. They did 500 episodes, many were fun, and nothing can stop you from going and tracking them down yourself if you know how to use the fucking internet.

Anyway, what he did with his life that's really great was a multi-episode miniseries of spoken-word dystopian futurist sci-fi called Tales from the Afternow. The backstory to it is, he basically just took the dystopian technological trends we see in the world today, extended them into the future 100 years or so, and just rapped out what stories came out from the extrapolation. The hook is, he's found a way in the future to broadcast these stories back into the past, in an attempt to warn us of our post-apocalyptic doom.

Frankly, it's about as fleshed-out and interesting as anything you'll find by Bill Gibson or PK Dick Bill Burroughs. (PK Dick's in his own league - he was actually insane and the books were his delusion, go read VALIS if you didn't already know this.) Kennedy's really a great storyteller, so it's kinda sad that now all he does apparently is a podcast on scuba-diving.

So, if you want some good spoken-word dystopian fiction, go to the Tales from the Afternow download site and get yourself some episodes.

They are in some kind of order, but there are some episodes (#6 and #8, and everything after #15 which really seemed to have been the climax) that aren't seemingly connected to the others. My own suggestion is to listen to 1-5, 7, 9, and then 10-15. That's around 13 hours of listening. Don't put it on in the background. Sit and listen like it's an old radio play.

PS to all Sean's fans - no, this blog is not a reliable source and no you cannot use it as a reference for your damn Sean Kennedy/RantMedia articles on Wikipedia already. Quit being fanboys.

At the Europe close, proof that PM investors are idiots

OK. IBEX up 2.72%. MIB up 2.56%. CAC40 up 1.65%. Greece down 6.67%, but they're a dismal failure so what do you expect?

Spanish and Italian 10Y yields neutral on the day.

Copper up 1%.

The world is obviously expecting Euro printing, so please quit being morans and start bidding silver and gold back up plz kthxbye.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

Parsing the fucking unbelievable

This goes way beyond Ottotrans:


Shanghai copper drops after French, Greek polls

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Shanghai copper fell on Monday, after elections in France and Greece stoked concerns on whether struggling euro zone economies could continue to pursue austerity measures crucial to resolving the bloc's debt crisis.

You've got to be shitting me. The opposite of austerity is money-printing, which is positive for copper. Oh and - exactly how much copper does Greece consume in order to produce their olive oil, foul-smelling booze and swastika armbands? As opposed to... say... CHINA?

Disappointing jobs data from the United States also added to global economic concerns, weighing on riskier assets like equities and commodities. 

Cuz... China? Seriously... USA only added 100k jobs, so now copper goes down?


The London Metal Exchange is closed for Early May Bank Holiday.

FUNDAMENTALS

* The most-active August copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1.3 percent to 57,570 yuan ($9,100) a tonne by 0115 GMT.
* Socialist Francois Hollande swept to victory in France's presidential election on Sunday in a swing to the left at the heart of Europe that could start a pushback against German-led austerity.

And... wait... Eurozone austerity was good for copper? And good for China, who buys 40% of world copper production?

* Greek voters punished pro-bailout ruling parties, throwing the future of the bailout scheme for the country into doubt. While vote counting is still going on, the conservative New Democracy and socialist PASOK, who have dominated Greece for decades, might only scrape the 151-seat threshold needed for even the most fragile majority in parliament.

And... Greece produces what? Other than Neo-nazis and surly fat moustached rapists sitting in cafes complaining about how they had it so much better under... I dunno, the Ottoman yoke?


Seriously... what does Greece even do? Besides driving the Mediterranean tuna into extinction?


* U.S. employers cut back on hiring in April and more people stopped looking for work, troubling signs for President Barack Obama whose re-election prospects could hinge on his handling of the economy.

You know you just noted Obama wants to get re-elected... you think he might have an interest in goosing jobs numbers soon, with... I dunno... austerity?- no wait, austerity doesn't add jobs... how about... stimulus?

* The euro zone economy worsened markedly in April, according to business surveys. Friday's purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), primarily covering services, suggested a recession across Europe's currency union could now extend to mid-year and be deeper than previously thought.

Did this happen over the weekend or something? Cos I seem to remember this having been in the news for the past fucking year or so.

* Economists at most major Wall Street firms still see about a one in three chance the Federal Reserve will launch another massive round of monetary stimulus in an effort to prop up the economy, a Reuters poll on Friday showed.

Which... is... bad for copper? Stimulus and money-printing are... bad for copper? I don't get it....


* A top Federal Reserve official painted an improving picture of the U.S. economy on Friday but said lofty unemployment, a festering crisis in Europe, and the year-end expiration of stimulative tax cuts make continued easy monetary policy a must.
* For the top stories in metals and other news, click , or 

MARKET NEWS
* Risk assets fell broadly on Monday after elections in Greece and France fuelled questions about whether struggling euro zone economies will continue to pursue austerity measures which are seen by markets as crucial to resolving the bloc's debt crisis.

Or they could just print money the way socialist lands like Europe are expected to.


Seriously, has the plutocratic corrupt bankster-owned incompetent right wing been in power in every country of the world for so fucking long that everyone's now forgotten how the other side of the spectrum does things?

Breaking news: give your fucking head a shake

Greece Still A Clusterfuck (Reuters)

May 6, Athens - Greece is still a clusterfuck. For those of you born in the last week, a history lesson: Greece has been a clusterfuck ever since the Ottomans left. Today's election changed nothing, for better or for worse. And by the way, give your fucking head a shake if you think the Neo-Nazis and the Communists are going to work together in an anti-Euro bloc.

France Elects Socialist, World Obviously Suffers From Memory Loss (Reuters)

May 6, Paris - France elected a socialist. For those of you who were born in the past 5 years, France is typically socialist, and Sarkozy's Berlusconi impersonation of the past few years was an aberration. Oh, and by the way: a 75% tax on millionaires, and higher taxes on energy companies and banks, is the smart socialist way to fix the economy. Taking money away from the working class to hand it over to the bankers is the wrong way.

Now go back to reading all those bullshit headlines about the markets being down because Greece remains a clusterfuck and France is back to normal. Because this is so fucking much a watershed moment. Don't bother to look at the Nikkei, where things are down because oil is down.