Saturday, March 31, 2012

Jeff Christian on gold

The CPM Gold Year Book - Jeff Christian

According to the CPM Group's Jeff Christian gold is unlikely to fall much below $1,400 during the next decade but investors are likely to start focusing more attention on gold stocks


Interviewer: Geoff Candy
Posted: Wednesday , 28 Mar 2012
Download this interview

GEOFF CANDY: Welcome to this week's edition of Mineweb.com's Gold Weekly podcast. Joining me on the line is Jeff Christian - he is the managing director at the CPM Group. Jeff you've just released the 2012 edition of the CPM Gold Yearbook and it focuses on the fact, in your view that gold is at a cyclical peak within a secular bull market. What exactly does that mean?

JEFF CHRISTIAN: Well we've seen gold prices rising for a decade now and it's gone from $270 to $250 an ounce 12 years ago to as high as $1920 last September and our view is that gold prices may not continue to rise, that they may have reached a cyclical peak and they could actually come off - and they have in fact come off since last September, over the last six months. But that they're going to stay high and that later, maybe 2015 or later, we expect gold prices to resume their increase. So we think that there's a secular bull market. Investors have been buying more gold than ever before in history of mankind, over the last 10 years and we think that's going to continue, and that's going to keep gold prices high and ultimately, later, drive them higher. But we think that within the context of that broader upward move in gold prices, that we may have reached a cyclical peak and we may not see gold prices go back up over $1920 which was the intra-day peak last September.

GEOFF CANDY: That being said then, is there a way to begin to start gauging where perhaps the floor for gold prices might be?

JEFF CHRISTIAN: The floor - the ultimate floor is provided by the cost of producing gold in the ground and if you look at the full all-in cost - gold on average is about $600 an ounce to mine on a cash cost basis and about 95% of the world's gold production comes into production at prices below $900 an ounce - maybe add $100 to $150 on top of that for general administrative costs, amortisation, depreciation and so maybe you're talking about $700 average cost - $1000 for 95% of the production. That presents a long-term floor for prices. Now there are two things about that long-term floor. First off is - you don't necessarily expect the gold price to hit it because it's not mine production and production costs that determine the gold prices. It's ultimately investment demand and there's no economic law that says price has to fall to $1000 or lower in order to turn off some of that production. So that's your long-term absolute floor. The second thing is somewhat contrary to that and that is that the price can actually fall below that production floor for an extended period of time because you have two billion ounces of gold and bullion held by investors and central banks. Let me just give you an historical analogy. From the early 1980s until 1997 we were saying that the floor price was $320 an ounce - that below $320 an ounce, gold was unsustainably low. Mining companies weren't expanded, they actually shut down mines. Jewellers used more gold per piece, investors would buy more gold. In 1997 you saw the gold price fall below $320 and our comment at the time was okay on a long-term basis prices below $320 are unsustainable but the short-term could last for five years. And in fact it did. It wasn't until 2002 that the gold price went back above $320 on a sustained basis. And so on the one hand there's the cost of producing gold is a long-term floor, but there are these provisos because gold is unique and you do have these two billion ounces of gold lying around in bullion form, relatively available to the market.

GEOFF CANDY: It raises a number of interesting questions and something that I did want to get your comment on, was the sense that we've seen since we saw at the end of February, that $100 dip in the price of gold, on the back of the announcement by the Federal Reserve that they weren't going to be looking at QE. There did seem to be a feeling almost of a change in sentiment that perhaps gold's run wasn't inexorable and wasn't always necessarily going to go up, and I wanted to get your sense of that - in your view has there been a sentiment change, and over and above that is there the threat perhaps of some of the investment demand that has been driving prices higher, coming off?

JEFF CHRISTIAN: Yea, there's clearly been a change in sentiment, and actually there's quantifiable evidence of the change, and the change really started to emerge in the middle of September, and the way I qualitatively describe it is the world woke up - everybody was buying gold hand over fist in July, August and early September because the euro was going to collapse ‘tomorrow', the ECB was going to collapse ‘tomorrow', we have revolutions throughout Europe, the United States was going to go back into a depression - there is this incredible fear of financial calamities, so buy gold today because the euro is gone tomorrow. And August came, we had the debacle of the US debt ceiling negotiations, we had the US Treasury downgrading, and the European governments continued to fiddle while Athens burned. And in the middle of September there was this shift in attitude from this view of buy gold today, regardless of the price because tomorrow the euro falls - to this attitude... like well its mid-September, the US Treasury has been downgraded which is something we've been worrying about for 30 years and I still have a job, the sun still comes up, I'm still eating, I'm still getting paid, the banks haven't collapsed, maybe CPM Group was right all these years. It's not an issue of imminent collapse, it's an issue of well we have these long-term structural problems that are going to take decades to squeeze out of the global economic and financial systems, and it's not imminent financial collapse that I should be worried about, its what's going to happen to my livelihood, my savings, my ability to live a good life over the next 10 to 20 years. So you saw investors shift - it wasn't like "I'm going to sell gold, I'm going to stop buying gold". It was "I'm going to continue to buy and hold gold, but I can be price sensitive". Now you did see some short-term investors back out and you got statistics to show your massive liquidation into ETFs by some short-term momentum-trading hedge funds, and total ETF holdings basically stayed high because as they were selling they drove the price down twice in last year, and then in February - you'd see these spikes down, and every time you saw that spike down, you'd see investors buying physical gold. You've seen a big reduction in the open interest on the Comex, gold futures and options contracts - that reflects some of those shorter-term momentum-driven, technically orientated traders getting out of the market. But you're still seeing relatively decent gold coins purchases. So what you're starting to see is price sensitivity on the part of investment demand. We actually expect investors to buy about as much gold this year as they bought last year in total, but we think they'll do it in a much more price conscious fashion.

GEOFF CANDY: What is that likely to mean then, going forward?

JEFF CHRISTIAN: Well I think it means several things for the gold industry. Firstly it probably means that what you'll see is - and you've seen this just in the last three months - whenever the gold price starts rising and gets up to $1780 - $1790 as it did a couple of weeks ago, or it gets over that into $1800 or so, you'll see investors stop buying, and you'll see some investors selling, and you'll see some investors buying puts or going short on the Comex in the expectation that those prices are too high and that there's a short-term profit to be made on the downside. The other thing that we expect to see is because we don't see gold prices going back to $1000 we see gold prices staying basically above $1400 going forward for the next decade. So as a result of that, what we think you'll see is that investors will say, okay the profit potential through capital appreciation of buying bullion is diminished. I still want to have bullion as a capital preservation instrument, but I can't make easy money by buying today at $1200 and selling tomorrow at $1400. So what I'm going to be doing is I'm going to be taking money out of that and putting it into gold shares. Because quite frankly, if the average cost of production is $600 - $700 on a full-in cost basis or $750, and the price stays above $1400, these guys have 100% profit margin. They should be growing, they should be kicking off dividends, gold mining companies should look more interesting than gold and we think that you'll see some investor's cycle out of gold bullion into gold shares. And again, you're starting to see some statistics that point in that direction already.

GEOFF CANDY: Is there any way to gauge whether or not that will be the majors or the juniors or the explorers, or will be across the board?

JEFF CHRISTIAN: I think it will be across the board. People are kind of avoiding the majors because they don't present growth stories. There'll be interest in the mid-size, the mid-tier gold producers a) because they generally speaking have some growth potential, and b) because they're takeover targets for majors. And then the real growth probably will be in the juniors and emerging producers, and to some extent the exploration companies. Because if you go back to the 1980s again, the real money was made by investing in those dozens of gold mining companies that emerged after the gold price had spiked to $850 and come back to $320.

GEOFF CANDY: Is there perhaps with the renewed interest in the gold stocks and particularly on the smaller side, is there perhaps likely to be more or less merger and acquisition activity then from the majors who indeed are always looking for ounces?

JEFF CHRISTIAN: Yes I think there will be and frankly we think that later this year and into 2013 you will see a wave of merger activity because, as the price subsides, people say okay, $1400 - $1500 this is a good price at which to effect these transactions because they'll still be thinking that the price has the capacity to rise again.

GEOFF CANDY: On the demand side of the equation now, we'd be remiss if we didn't talk about China and India, and particularly India at the moment where there have been some interesting developments on the political front, with the increase in duties on imports as well as excise duties, and some fight back by the jewellery sector. How do you see things playing out there?

JEFF CHRISTIAN: Well I think that the tax issues will have a negative impact on investment demand and jewellery demand in India and India has been a very important market for gold into 2011 and before that even. But I think it will be relatively minor - it probably won't be as catastrophic. For one thing, the Indian government has in the past demonstrated the willingness to roll back taxes when they realise that two things happen. There's too much opposition, or what happens is a lot of things go unreported and untaxed. So if you look at the broad history of Indian gold policies, they banned gold imports and exports for many years and everything was being smuggled into the country. So what they wound up doing was legalising it with a tax and all of a sudden they were collecting taxes on the imports and everything was great so they doubled the tax. This goes back to the early 1990s - everybody started smuggling again because they didn't want to pay the 2% tax, so they rolled it back to 1% and everyone started bringing it in legally again. And so the Indian government has demonstrated a facile nature in adjusting its tax policies so as to maximise its own tax revenues and to avoid smuggling, and to avoid too much strong dissent. So I wouldn't be surprised even if the Indian government rolls back some of these taxes that they've imposed. The second thing is that even if they don't do that, the Indian market will adjust and the appetite for gold in jewellery and investment form is probably so strong that people will be willing to pay that tax.

GEOFF CANDY: Just two things to close off with. Firstly, if we look at the rest of 2012 and perhaps into 2013, what is the CPM Group going to be focusing on, what do you see as the main drivers for the market this year?

JEFF CHRISTIAN: Well the main driver will continue to be investment demand and investors are right now, again we think investors over the last six months have moved away from this palpable fear of imminent financial collapse, they're still concerned about the global economy and we think that one of the major trends you'll see over the next 12 to 18 months, is that investors will continue to be concerned about economic factors but you'll have a continued relaxation or subsidence in that concern and that will be reflected in investors redeploying some of the money that they have in cash, bank accounts and bank CDs so that that will probably be good for stocks, it will be good for the overall economy, and some of that money definitely will flow into gold.

GEOFF CANDY: And finally, there does seem to be perhaps an overly simplistic view of the gold market in that if we see an uptick in the economy and things returning to a story of growth, that that would necessarily be a bad thing for gold and we'd see it re-entering a bear market. What is your view - how does that work...?

JEFF CHRISTIAN: One of the things about the gold market is when investors are more sanguine about the economy it's not they sell their gold, they buy less gold. So we think that you could see investors moving toward buying less gold over the next few years, but we don't know that that's going to be a major negative factor on the gold market. So yea we do think that you'll see some investors cooling off ... but again it's like "I don't need to buy gold today, I can be price sensitive". That probably will be reflected in somewhat lower prices, and then we think that those lower prices will be taken as a buying opportunity by other longer term investors who say this is great, I'm glad I didn't buy it at $1900, I'm getting it at $1400...

AL KORELIN THROWS IN THE TOWEL ON RESOURCE STOCKS

The headline of this post isn't exactly true, but if the dicks in the mainstream media can write headlines like "blah blah China collapse" just because China's growth rate is forecast to drop to 6% this year, then I should also be allowed to utterly stretch the truth.

But go listen to this podcast of Al's.

I'm serious. Go listen to it.

#1, to me it's interesting that he owns Corvus and International Tower Hill.

But beyond that, it sounds like he really expects the juniors to continue sucking for a really, really long time. He's not as dismal as his listeners are in the comments section; but he certainly does sound like he has sat down, looked over his overall strategy, and decided that maybe this is the best he's ever going to see for gold and silver. Dark night of the soul kind of thing.

Oh, and by the way - it's all about India

Indian gold imports collapsed from January to March 2012.

Note how I keep saying how it's all about India.

even Rob McEwen agrees with us, guys.

Rob McEwen agrees that gold miners suck.

Specifically, he notes that Goldcorp has sucked ever since he left. "God, they so suck", notes McEwen.

Other miners also suck, he notes.

He calls the senior miners' performance so bad, it's "a deterrent to investment".

Specifically, notes McEwen, gold mining management are fucking morons and selfish bastards who should be fired and replaced with their Guatemalan poolboys.

R Daniela chats with Adrian D-Day at PDAC

I guess it's a dig at his relative unimportance in the goldbug community, but only recently has Our Daniela gotten around to uploading her Adrian Day PDAC interview. Which is sad, because I found him to be the most useful and believable speaker on Analyst Sunday. Especially his short note on per-capita copper use during industrialization, and where China is on that curve right now. That was vitally important info.



Seriously. What was a guy like this doing giving a talk on the same day as apocalyptic doomsters and paid pumpers? He's way too... too... grown up.

Now maybe Adrian Day is crazy like other goldbugs? But perhaps he simply does it in a deeply understated, subtle, English sort of way that us colonials would never notice. Maybe he has a reputation in the City for... I dunno, mixing his cognac with milk, or... wearing a Burberry scarf, or... following Aston Villa, or... well, whatever else the bankers over there would consider an indication of craziness.

Anyway; please watch him, and see how good a listen he is. And remember that, since the horrible collapse in gold at the end of February that was forced by a huge market sell order from "Asia" (more like JP Morgan and the Lizard People, I'd say), it's only gone down by a further 2% over the rest of the month. So... why are you puking the miners still?


UPDATE: aw, here's Daniela interviewing him in Vancouver a couple months ago, where he points out that you have to quit being a crybaby about China.



He also points out that the industrialization of Germany and the US at the end of the 19th century produced a 45-year bull market in hard commodities - and guess what's happening today with China, India, southeast Asia generally, and pretty much the rest of the world?

So quit being a sissy.

Friday, March 30, 2012

Century Mining - one more final post for Otto

Holy shit. You thought that Century was gone forever? Swallowed into the bowels of some crappy pretend miner run by Russians, with all the evil that entails?

Here's a news item that'll bring back the old days for you....

Centur... I mean... White Tiger Gold fails to file its Year End on time.

The countdown to another year's delisting begins....

Gold miners and enterprise value per ounce

It's not enough to look at charts, you've also got to explain the fundamental reason for your shocking predictions about how low the juniors will go.

I'm reading through a pirated copy of an analyst's dour view of the gold juniors. One thing that strikes me as interesting is that the average EV/ozAu for the gold juniors they follow, as of this week, is back down to the exact area it was back in December '09 thru June '10. This is despite the POG being 30-40% higher than it was at that time. In comparison, when gold first dinged $1400 back in early 2010, the average EV/ozAu was 80% higher than it is today.

In the case of silver miners, EV/ozAg is back to where it was in, say, Feb-June 2010. This is despite silver being about 60% higher. When silver was at the same price back in Jan '11, the average EV/ozAg was twice what it is now.

Oh, but inflation's dinged the miners since then? Well, copper was much higher, and oil was mildly lower; but the $CCI in general was a little bit (~10%?) higher.

I can't repost the charts cos they're proprietary, and a dead giveaway that I'm reading their bullshit without paying them $5000/year. And it might be that the charts are based on a proprietary index that they've made up themselves.

And of course, markets can get a heck of a lot dumber than you can stand.

But, with those caveats in place, I just don't see how (if you assume silver and gold aren't collapsing from here) these miners can go much below where they are now. Ceteris paribus there's a crapload more upside than downside, right here.

As long as, of course, you don't see a collapse in Asia, or more general market panic.

Why Nasdaq's down while S&P's up

I hope he's not annoyed by my posting of his private (for-pay) comments, but...

A certain newsletter writer just sent out an email noting that S&P is vaguely up while the Q is down. Within 30 milliseconds my brain said "wonder if Apple's the difference?"


Well there's your problem!

Excitement! Romance! And boothbabes!

For a tingly guilty pleasure that'll keep your motor running for hours, why not listen to the exciting Q4/YE conference call for B2Gold?

Presenting more vague correlations for you

I showed this chart a while ago, and said "hmmm".


Basica idea being that 25% of the world's gold goes into Indian jewelry, so if the rupee sucks, gold will experience weakness.

India's sucking right now. There are stories in the press about how much India sucks, but they all seem to forget that (politically at least) India's been an economic and political basketcase since the assassination of Mohandas Gandhi. (The typical Indian election, explained to me by an expat years ago, involves voting out the corruption of the past few years in favour of the corruption of the previous few years before.) So unless India completely falls off a cliff, maybe this chart will do little more than illustrate a mild contributor to gold strength and weakness.

Get it? OK, so here's another one:


I read somewhere recently that about 55% of silver goes into batteries and photovoltaic cells. So Solar ETFs would be a vague proxy for silver's prospects.

And here on the weekly you can see that silver was in an upward trend as long as solar didn't suck; but when solar truly began to generate negative relative air pressure, silver went into a downward channel. It's not a high correlation, but it is still a correlation.

It's like magic! No mention of "fiat" or "Weimar" or "Zimbabwe": it can all be explained thru supply and demand.

What's even worse is that if the neo-Nazis in the conservative movement want their silver stocks and silver bullion to truly soar, they had better damn well start supporting subsidies for alternative energy. Cos... y'know... supply and demand... I mean... didn't Ludwig von Mises ever explain it to you?

Friday videos - O Fortuna, why hast thou forsaken me? edition

I previously posted some Colombian orchestra doing O Fortuna, and that was good - far from the dispassionate sterile renditions of poptards like Andre Rieu, those kids really played it with passion.

But O Fortuna is a Viking prayer of battle, and while I liked the passion of that Colombian orchestra I wanted something a little closer to an archetypal performance. You know, more like a "today is a good day to die" remix.

Especially when it's all about Fortuna Silver's fall from grace.

So, I did a bit of digging, and I found a clip of Seiji Ozawa conducting the piece with a little bit more of not just the warrior's passion, but also the warrior's precision. Oh, and he does the entire piece, not just the exciting first part.



I dislike the loud parts - sure, the choir should get lost below the orchestra, but they're not supposed to go down without a fight. They're supposed to scream the final verse, and the orchestra is supposed to overpower them. Maybe it's the sound recordist who's to blame. Certainly seems to have lost the dynamic range, and one mic seems to be far to close to lead trumpet. Maybe this is from a TV performance?

Oh well. As for the philosophy behind O Fortuna? If you're too fucking lazy to type "Carmina Burana" into en.wikipedia.org, then just watch the following clip from 24 Hour Party People. Really good movie, and the first time someone got me to watch it I thought it really was Tony Wilson and not a comedian hired to play him. Cos Tony Wilson was supposed to have been cool.




And if you're one of those crybaby sissy junior mining investors who's all boo-hoo, junior miners suck, explorecos suck, just remember this:



The seasons don't fear the reaper; nor do the wind or the sun or the rain. Can you be like they are? All you have to do is get your trading account down to zero, then you get to do a Livermore, and you can go meet Hitler and John Wayne Gacy in heaven. Cos you know they're there.



PS: Anyone who attempts to post a comment that references Christopher Walken voicing an entreaty for the increment of audibility of a certain percussive instrument will suffer eternal bannation. I'm serious. You are not Christopher Walken. Perversely, this means you're not funny.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Sabina on BNN

Friday at 2:05 PM, Rob Pease from Sabina will be on BNN explaining why they suck. Tune in!

PS Fortuna also sucks

The House That Jeff Berwick Built has an article on Fortuna today. Seems they're also running into permitting trouble at Caylloma?

During a conference call with analysts to discuss its 2011 financial results on Tuesday, company officials said Fortuna has yet to secure a permit for a new tailings facility at a mine in southern Peru. If the permit isn’t granted, production at the Caylloma mine may be temporarily suspended, putting about two million ounces of annual silver production at risk, company officials warned.

If doom is looming in China...

Yeah, so if China is teetering upon the cusp of doom,

Someone might want to tell Thailand.


Or... y'know... Indonesia.


At least Vienam is responding.

Then again, once you're looking at Vietnam, you're really looking into the bottom of the barrel.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

DOOOOOOOOOM!

Holy crap. I just checked on the boards at Korelin Economics Report today. Man. People are completely sickened by the juniors.

Here's a few examples of the typical opinions:

Comments section for Roger Wiegand's podcast of Tues 28 Mar:

  • "My portfolio of miners is down almost 30% since it reached break-even level in February. Hearing your market trends today gave me a bit of despair for the miners. I’m at a point of wondering if I should cash out of them at a loss, and buy physical gold or silver instead."
  • "if you’re only down 30% in your mining portfolio then you’re doing much better than most. The majority of my miners are down 70%+, with the odd one down 90%."
  • "If I’d invested in any other sector, other than precious metals, i would have made money instead of losing the majority of my savings. Next time I’ll know better."
  • "if we read the gold newsletters etc, they are still drinking the cool aid and promoting gold stocks that invariably only ever go downwards in price over time."
  • "We are currently experiencing currency debasement, inflation and all the other symptoms that supposedly drives the metals higher. Instead, look what we have!! Lower metals with even lower prices on the horizon."
  • "the mining shares are the absolute worst place to be. I have wasted the last two years of my life watching them and studying them. And I have gained nothing. Nothing at all. Only have lost so much more than what I started with. It has been a waste of both my time and money. It hurts so much to still own them. I’m wondering if it I should sell them all today, just cut my losses, and move on with my life; this time investing in myself what I have left, rather than investing in these companies that may likely never go anywhere. I have shot myself in the foot by buying into the mining share story. And I’ve gotten myself addicted to the hopium of believing the analysts and pundits who claim that a mania phase awaits in the mining shares. What a joke. Mark Twain is rolling in his grave. A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top, he wrote. Sage advice right there. Alas, what to do now? Sell them at a huge loss, or stay addicted to the hopium, with the idea that they really are destined for better days?"
  • "I agree. This has not only been a waste of time, but also a distraction from other investments. It looks as if the TSX.V is in for a big roll-over now that will take most if not all the mining stocks down with it."
  • "Scorpio down 20% today on missed earnings. Glad I sold out on these guys. Expect a lot more of this from other producers."
  • "Mining companies are a horrible investment. They sell a depleting asset (their PMs) and give you a 1.5% dividend, if you’re lucky. The greedy bastards who run those companies don’t even have the brains to listen to Jim Sinclair when he said last year that they need to increase their dividends to attract new investors. It’s time to get out of these mining companies FOR GOOD and get into the real metal."
  • "By the time these guys do more than talk about what is in the ground the whole commodity run will be over. At least they can plant a garden on the land and grow their own food."
  • "And for some yet-to-be explained reason, the stock of Rugby Mining, a sponsor of this site, on a volume of 500, had a flash-crash of 25% in value, in seconds. If that’s not a sign to get the hell out of mining companies, I don’t know what is."
  • "if the general market gets taken down again as it surely will, all miner’s big and small, high quality or poor quality are going to get taken out to the woodshed. It will likely be 2008 all over again. Don’t think for a second that miners are going to disconnect from the general market and rally like all the guru’s and pundent’s try to convince people. They will not."
  • "it already is 2008 again! Most mining stocks are at all time lows right now or at least multi year lows. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just away with the fairies. 90% declines have been commonplace among mining stocks lately and the ‘best’ are probably down about 40%. Great sector, I mean seriously. All this hype and ra ra from the gold bugs and what does it accomplish? Nada. 95% of the gold companies are run by promoters whose sole purpose it is is to make themselves rich whilst making the public poor. I’m done with gold stocks. Lost most of my life savings in them. Never again. The only investing i will ever do from now on is by Blue Chip stocks or the overall Indices such as Dow Jones, Nasdaq or maybe the TSX but even that is way too overweight in resource stocks."
  • "I suspect the large-cap mining stocks have long expected a crash in PM prices. Why bother making aquisitions of the juniors and get stuck with a bunch of land that propably has PMs in questionable mining situations."
  • "With respect to the increasing volatility and a probable 2008 scenario happening later this year, what I’m thinking, considering your advice, is to just sell my miners at a loss during the next metals rally, and maybe, just maybe get back into some of the more quality miners after the market has crashed. But I’ll most certainly not go all-in."
  • "BUT Roger and the gain will continue to tell you to BUY BUY BUY and subscribe to their websites… their advice is not any better then anyone else. Now they are starting with their excuses of why things aren’t happening as they predicted…"
  • "these SO CALLED experts with their websites and subscriptions always saying that you should buy and hold on…the big run up is coming…you don’t want to miss it…better to be in early (AND LOSE MONEY) or you might miss it..Then when there predictions don’t work out,…oh IT”S A Correction…great time to buy…this is the bottom…get in now…ON AND ON AND ON. Then I see and hear about lot’s of people losing money because they believe all the hype. The experts are no more expert then anyone else."

To sum up:

Gold miners suck

and also,

Gold miner newsletters suck

plus, the bonus,

Gold and silver suck

Now, I guess you could be a contrarian and say "yup, this is when you want to buy with both fists - when the sissies are crying." You could also say "who's going to buy these shares to drive the prices back up, now that all these sissies have turned their backs on the miners forever?"

That's what I don't like about contrarian investing.

The Cookie Monster on Gold Report

Brent Cook gets interviewed today by Gold Report, and waxes nostalgic for the glory days when gold was $50/oz and copper was going for literal pennies.

Basically he says stay away from the miners, buy Apple.

The Flying Spaghetti Monster has landed!

Wheeeeeeeee!

I'd actually think FVI at $4-$4.50 is a buy... I mean, it was a buy 6 months ago at this price.


Then again, GT says dooooom is just around the corner. So maybe you want to hold out for $3?

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Peter L Brandt says "pow zoom straight to the moon"

I've only started following him recently, and I've only just now added a link over on the right. Peter L. Brandt is quite an interesting read - seems to be a more old-school chartie (e.g. he follows commodities, like sugar -who cares about sugar nowadays?).

Anyway, this weekend he posted a chart analysis that shows gold building an inverse H&S targeting $2042.

Fap fap fap!

Or... uh... I guess a triangle targeting $1200.

(crickets)

Gold can't go to $1200 though, since that's the all-in cost of production for gold at the majors. You'd need India to cease all buying of gold for it to drop that low. Plus maybe all the other countries of the world.

I wonder if GT's newsletter has pointed out the inverse H&S in gold this weekend? See, I haven't even gotten around to reading it yet because I had to post this just for you.

movie review: Hannibal

So I decided to watch the chick flick instead of the psycho killer movie.

Hannibal was fun, I guess. I can see why I've never seen in on TV - it's a bit more gruesome than the other 2 or 3 Hannibal movies, and it'd be really difficult to make it into a PG-13 network TV pre-watershed feature.

It was difficult, so far as Julianne Moore took over the role of Starling for this film, and I just spent last weekend watching her play Sarah Palin.

Speaking of which... apparently, the novel ends with Hannibal and Starling getting married. Yup. And moving to... wait for it... Argentina.

Geez, Argentina keeps coming up on this blog.

Anyway... generally it's a good movie. Fun watch. I might watch The Iron Lady tonight, but since it's Newsletter Day I'll have a lot of reading to do. So, maybe it'll wait til Monday night.