Friday, February 17, 2012

Friday videos - love songs edition

It was either this, or Willie Nelson and Julio Iglesias doing "To All the Girls I've Loved Before".

So I instead settled on the Smiths' "Miserable Lie".

Fuck, to me it was a love song, back in the 80s. Actually, the whole album was full of them.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

This must mean something

That's a triple for outside days.

I dunno... the size of those candles tells me either we're in for a freaking huge volatility period, or the bottom is most definitely in. That is one heck of a lot more than a simple mean reversion to the EMA, that's for sure.

You wanna bet the OpEx close for silver next week even does anything? What's the open interest like for silve right now, anyway? Wouldn't you think that a low open interest might mean no beat-down at OpEx?

blah blah Greece blah blah

Nice interview on the Gold Report with Sascha Opel, some newsletter writer or other - but from Germany.


"The Eurozone is in much better shape than what you read, especially what you read in the U.S. press. OK, Greece and Portugal are problems, but problems that can be solved. Italy, for me, is not a problem at all. It is a very rich country with a strong industrial base. In Germany the economy is doing very well; we have the lowest unemployment rate in 20 years and the highest employment rate ever. Car sales and exports to China and elsewhere in Asia are at record levels and the growth rates are phenomenal. Some of the German DAX companies are trading on very low valuations and high dividend levels (many yielding between 3.5% and 6%). For the next three years, the ECB has bought time to solve the problems in the Eurozone, which is a reason to be optimistic."

yeah I don't get it either.

$VIX has turned around, JNK:LQD has turned around, UUP has turned around, $HUI is printing a bullish outside day, FVI has taken off like a bat out of hell.

I have no clue what's just happened, but it looks like the known universe took a great big bong hit of wheelchair weed. Is this the bottom? $HUI tend to print a very long white candle to show that. We'll see.

article on making money on the market

Here's a fun article titled How I made a gazillion percent in the stock market.

Or something.

Basics of market timing using broad market movement and EMAs to pick buy-in and sell-out points, then buying the individual stocks that break out.

I've been wanting to try to trade like this.

World Gold Council says nothing to worry about, btw.

Here. Go read a new report by the World Gold Council.

memo to Evil Empire: silver and gold drop today

Silver's lost $33 support, and Gold is threatening $1705, as we speak.

Gold company news

Breaking news!

Agnico-Eagle finally admits they truly suck, so bad they can't even turn a profit mining gold, whose price (in case you missed it) was going up all last year; try lipsticking the pig by throwing a few useless executives under the bus


Kinross also announces they have no clue how to translate the high price of gold into profits; Tye Burt contradicts his earlier comments, and now says Tasiast is a priority project, despite the fact they'll never make a fucking cent on that hole either


Goldcorp has no problem making a profit; laughs off this "cost escalations" excuse that's going around the neighbourhood nowadays; speculates it might have something to do with Goldcorp not being fucking braindead morons

Silver linings in these? Every company, even the shitty ones, is increasing its dividend.

Also, I have to assume, just looking at the charts, that it's not news to the market that Agnico and Kinross truly suck beyond any belief and their management are glue-huffing ass-clowns. So, with that in mind, I'd hope that the narrative spun by the market is that gold miners are a good place to put your money - as long as you can avoid the numerous ones with idiot management (like Kinross and Agnico) and select the smart ones (like Goldcorp). And hey, even the fucktards can still increase their dividend (though why you'd want to own Agnico for its dividend, instead of Telus or Bank of Nova Scotia, is beyond me). And the "cost escalation" problems strangely seem to be confined to the miners who sucked to begin with.

We'll see how the market plays this today. It'll be instructive for me. I'd especially like to watch the GDXJ:GDX ratio; I' also like to see if Agnico or Kinross even go down, considering their sucking has already been heavily discounted til now.

And yes, Meadowbank was written down like crazy. Though if you go and read up on the mine plan (which I did during last year's Aura Silver misadventure), you have to just shake your head at a few of the deposits that were supposedly going to make up Meadowbank. There was only 1 good pit, maybe 2; the rest was high strip low grade garbage to begin with.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

The day I failed to top-tick Apple

Despite an RSI of 95, I thought today would be a good day to buy 100 AAPL at $525.

Then I thought "oh crap no, I'm going to top-tick my buy, you watch."

Then I thought "come on, $6 billion in volume by lunch, and I'm scared I'm going to top-tick it? What am I, nuts? I can single-handedly crater the highest-volume stock on the board with one single-lot buy? How silly. This is the kind of thinking that I wanted to avoid."

At the last second I saw the bid-ask moving down and said "oh good, I can buy it for a dollar less now."

But then I chickened out and cancelled my bid.

Now look at it.

Turns out being a chicken was good today.

I just won minus two dumbass points.

Update 1: ten minutes later and we're at $498.

Mining in Nunavut

Found a pdf on the intarwebz (probably was originally a powerpoint presentation, not much content) that's interesting. It's about the history of mining in Nunavut and the NWT.

Here, go check it out.

In case, y'know, you think it's impossible to mine in the far north (cough Norilsk cough).

Post #800 - news flash

News Flash:

Gold miners suck.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

US Silver desperate to keep their share price above $2.

According to the bullboards, US Silver can't get an AMEX listing if their share price drops below $2. So you get this....

U.S. Silver Corporation (TSX:USA, OTCQX:USSID, Frankfurt:QE2) (“U.S. Silver” or the “Corporation”) announces that, subject to acceptance by the Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) of the Corporation’s Notice of Intention to make a Normal Course Issuer Bid, the board of directors has authorized the purchase of up to 3,092,727 of its common shares, representing approximately 5% of the Corporation’s issued and outstanding common shares. As of February 9, 2012, the Corporation had 61,854,543 common shares issued and outstanding. The Corporation will cancel any common shares purchased pursuant to the normal course issuer bid. Purchases will be made on the open market by the Corporation through the facilities of the TSX in accordance with TSX requirements. The prices that the Corporation will pay for any purchased common shares will be the market price of such shares on the TSX at the time of acquisition. The Corporation will make no purchases of common shares other than open market purchases. Daily repurchases by the Corporation will be limited, other than block purchase exceptions, to such number of common shares that represents 25% of the average daily trading volume for the last six calendar months. The Corporation has not purchased any of its common shares during the preceding 12 months pursuant to a normal course issuer bid.

The Corporation believes that from time to time the common shares of the Corporation have been trading at prices that do not fully reflect the underlying value of the Corporation. As a result, the Corporation believes that its common shares are a good investment at its current and recent prices.

“With a cash balance in excess of our planned needs, an expected continued strong silver market and management’s belief that the current stock price does not reflect the underlying company value, we feel that this share buyback program is a very prudent investment for the benefit of shareholders at this time,” commented Gordon Pridham, Executive Chairman of U.S. Silver.

The Corporation may from time to time enter into a pre-defined plan with a registered investment dealer to allow for the repurchase of common shares at times when the Corporation ordinarily would not be active in the market due to its own internal trading blackout periods, insider trading rules, or otherwise. This plan will be adopted in accordance with applicable Canadian securities laws.


HGU and a chart that can only get better from here

If I was some sort of TA genius, I'd look at the miners double-long ETF chart above, see the RSI below 30, good support below at $11.50-11.75, and little prospect for the selloff to be as nuts as it was back in December, and I'd say "hm.... looks like more upside than downside right about here."

Instead I'm a fucktard and just buy a $10K position cos things can only get better from here, right?

GDXJ to GLD ratio

Since this is trending down, maybe I don't want to buy miners right now.

However, when you look at the RSI(8), which seems above to give good overbought and oversold signals, you might imagine that it shouldn't get much worse than this, and a bottom should be near.

Also, when you look at the mess in December, remember that that low ratio (~.15 at the bottom) happened as a result of overexcited unrealistic Euro fear combined with the December fund selloff in the miners. So I don't see why we should go all the way down there again.

Still, you could get a week of choppy-chop before the GDXJ:GLD turns back up.

I'm not hurting right now, by the way; I sold all my good miners a few days ago, so all I'm left with is terrible crappy garbage stocks like BCM and SBB that have already been sold off to death.

Falling below the EMA(45) might be a bad thing, though.

Thinking aloud, is all.

Why this blather about "possible buy points" is coming out my yap this moment

I don't just follow a stock relative to its EMA(8); I also look at it relative to its RSI(8).

Yeah, I know the RSI isn't a great buy indicator, it only tells you how fast a stock is plummeting relative to yesterday.

But you don't normally see RSI(8)s much lower than 30, except during a market collapse. My own read of the macro tells me there ain't a collapse around the corner.

So, what about some RSIs for 5 minutes ago?

FVI 39.6, NGD 37.2, SBB 35.7, PVG 33.2, and XG (my fave) 31.67.

Each RSI could still dump to 25 or so, sure, but really that's about as bad as their RSIs should get without a major world collapse of some kind, I'd think.

I'm just some moron who trades stocks with his pants down. But maybe my opinion makes you think?

Flying Spaghetti Monster at a possible buy point

FVI, known on the US as The Flying Spaghetti Monster (FSM), is at its EMA(45).

Magical point, cos when you're just seeing a short-term correction in a medium-term uptrend, the EMA(45) seems to be a support point you can count on.

So if you wanted, buy FVI at $6.25, put a stop in for (say) $6.05, and your possible 20 cent loss can go up against a possible $0.75 gain ( that is, if you think FVI has any reason to go up to $7). Those are decent odds... especially cos I personally don't really think silver's going to go down much from here.

Um... next week's OpEx aside, of course.

I'm probably staying away from that trade cos I already have a whole pile of silver miners, and most of them (i.e. SBB) have already been beaten down already. They seem to be outperforming today.

But, buying FVI at this point might be a good idea.

Oops... silver just tanked... I'll let you go....

Monday, February 13, 2012

verdict on Sabina?

Dunno, 2M shares traded and an increase in share price shows me the NR was received well.

Then again, the volume included a 725,000 cross at Dundee right before the bell. It'd be interesting to see how many of the other large volume spikes today (14:06, 15:24) were also insto crosses.

It'd also be interesting to know what the heck the insto crosses actually mean.

Anyway... one-day boost to volume and price, thank you Sabina IR Department for a very nice news release. I'd almost like to go to this year's PDAC just to thank them. Especially if they gots any pretty girls at their booth. (Hochschild had some hotties last year... too bad they're the Antichrist.)

bottom for precious metals?

I dunno... I track the few good miner stocks out there (FVI, AR, BTO, DPM) instead of the misleading GDXJ or the utterly horrid "they let any sort of person in here" $HUI. And the good miners all seem to be turning up a tiny bit today.

Might just be a last gasp before a price collapse, but I personally think silver and the miners are suggesting that whatever drop we're having is minor, the PM weakness should be over-ish, and risk is reduced and now's a good time to wade in.

Now, of course, I'm going against the judgment of a few guys who've been writing newsletters for longer than I've been following the junior miners.

And also, JNK:LQD looks bad, and the US dollar is turning up on a day when maybe it shouldn't be? An $VIX and IEF are behaving a little stronger than I'd want to see.

So... took some profits on a couple things, cashed up a bit, and will wait and see what's up. The good strong upmove in Sabina today (oh if only I'd bought all my shares at $3.48!!) is making me feel okay.

Sabina news release hits the right buttons

Here's this morning's Sabina news release.

It hits all the right buttons. It reminds people that they're about to start drilling, there's a PEA coming this quarter, a PFS will come later so they intend to mine one day, they're getting along with the Inuit, Xstrata still wants to develop Hackett, and Hackett's worth a lot of money to Sabina.

Basically, if you were scared because of the Glencore merger, or otherwise cos of the tank to $3.50, this NR soothes and relieves itching. As a stupid newbie investor myself, I am only more happy to hold my large position in Sabina after today's NR.

So let's see how the price reacts today.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

In the words of Josh Brown, "blah blah Greece blah blah"

The headline tonight is: Blah blah Greece blah blah.

But seriously, their parliament voted to accept the austerity measures today. As ZeroHedge notes (pfft), they may as well vote in favour, since they still have no intent to actually see this through. You wonder why they were complaining recently about being under the "jackboot of Nazi Germany"? It's because this time, the Germans wanted just the Greeks to provide the slightest token agreement to actually follow through on their rosy promises. Fool me once, and so on.

Greece is a nation of tax-evading government-subsidy parasites. Has been for 200 years - most of which years, by the way, they've spent in default. So I was very happy these past few weeks to see bloggers in general begin referring to Greek headlines as "blah blah Greece blah blah" - finally, I thought, we'd get off this Greek fixation and move ahead to a new market narrative.

After all, as Kiron Sarkar noted, the ECB's LTRO has greatly reduced the possibility of a contagion-driven baking system collapse - and that was what we really cared about, not the childish antics of a nation of tax-evading swarthy booze-drinking ass-slapping layabouts. Greece is a clusterfuck nation and a government of clowns, so it's about time the German austerity demands actually made their economy correspond to that.

Just because you joined the EU doesn't mean you get to be rich. It's about time some peripheral nations got their faces ground into the dirt with the imperialist German jackboot, I'd say.

an oopsie on the overnight market

Dunno if this is just a mistake in their data feed, but Kitco's charts are showing a major fat-fingered long-gold-short-platinum moment on the market tonight.

the secret that'll keep you sane about gold

For my three more long-term readers, see if you can figure out which of the following is closest to my personal thesis on gold:

  1. Blah blah fiat blah blah Zimbabwe blah blah gold standard blah blah Ron Paul;
  2. Blah blah monetary policy blah blah M3 expansion blah blah stealth devaluation;
  3. Blah blah societal collapse blah blah smoking ruins blah blah Mad Max;
  4. It's a secular trend that's all about the developing world.

Now go read the Wikipedia article on Gold, esp. the section on consumption.

Can't read? Okay, take a seat... are you sitting comfortably? Then we'll begin....

50% of yearly gold consumption goes into jewelry. In 2010, over half of jewelry consumption was driven by China and India. (Incidentally - go fuck yourself if you're an "analyst" and you didn't notice gold's drop happened at the same time as the Rupee became unstable, instead blaming it on some unseen shadowy elite or something.)

Other significant consumers include Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt (oops) and Indonesia.

Then 40% goes to investment demand. Betcha most of that is in India, China, Turkey, UAE, Saudi Arabia etc....

So... ahem.

More Jeff Berwick, if you want to know more about him.

For those playing libertopian bingo: Zimbabwe, fiat, collapse, Ayn Rand, central bank, socialism, FEMA camps, Nazi Germany, debt-based money system, collectivist, statist, free blog.

Strange that a libertopia still uses the Argentine Peso for their currency instead of, well, y'know, silver rounds. Oh well!

And here's the ever-beautiful Daniela Cambone, who's stuck interviewing him cos Mickey Fulp's off sick or something.

I guess he'll be doing the same speech, "Escape from America", at PDAC. So it'll be blah blah debt blah blah fiat blah blah collapse, with PS the government has stolen the people of America's gold at Fort Knox.

Speaking of libertopians....

Oy vey - a libertopian paradise

Doug Casey and Jeff Berwick have a little libertopian hideaway in Argentina called Galt's Gulch.

Jeff Berwick btw has a blog called The Dollar Vigilante. It seems he's mostly concerned about the coming Socialist One-World Government. He seems to enjoy writing things that make Karl Denninger look like a centrist.

Berwick is one of the "letter-writers" appearing at this year's PDAC. Here's his description from that webpage:

"Jeff Berwick is an anarcho-capitalist freedom fighter and Chief Editor of the libertarian, Austrian economics grounded newsletter, The Dollar Vigilante. The Dollar Vigilante focuses on strategies, investments and expatriation opportunities to survive and prosper during and after the US dollar collapse."

Uh... "anarcho-capitalist freedom-fighter"? As in, what, exactly? Writing a blog about running away to Argentina so he doesn't have to pay US taxes? Or calling the most right-wing pro-rich pro-business country in the world "socialist"? Wow... well, it doesn't exactly measure up to bombing the Alfred P. Murrah building, but maybe the libertopians aren't that kind of "freedom-fighter".

And it is neat that one way to survive the US dollar collapse is... wait for it!... to move to Argentina. With a lot of gold coins. Specifically, to a plot of land that you've bought from Doug Casey.

God, I wasn't thinking about going to PDAC this year, and last year's "letter writer presentations" day was thoroughly boring (except, if I recall, Ian McAvity); but I might go this year after all, just to see this guy talk. I enjoy anything that makes people squirm in their seats.