Saturday, February 4, 2012

Regarding Doc Dart from the Crucifucks....

Re my Friday videos post, I decided to go look up the Crucifucks at Wikipedia to see if Doc Dart was dead (which seems to happen to all the crazy singers) or had become something really weird like a born-again itinerant pastor.

Instead I found a fabulous huge article & interview. He apparently has dropped the name Doc Dart (which was his real name btw) and now is known as 26.

He also no longer swears. And he refuses to hear anything at all about politics.

Here's the article:

How Crucifucks Frontman Doc Dart Became a Man Named 26

Funny story in there about how he was ostracized from his community for speaking out (facetiously of course) about 9/11 and the Iraq War... til five years later people were sympathetic and all of a sudden wanted to support him.

As he says:

“People say, ‘I’ll stand behind you,’ but…”—he pointed into an imaginary distance far beyond his house—“they’re way, way behind you.”

At the Bar with Brent and Mickey - field trips

Brent Cook and Mickey Fulp are at it again, hitting up Kitco's beautiful Daniela Cambone for some free booze in return for 8 minutes of slurred speech, Mickey talking with his hands, and Brent's nose getting progressively redder.

In this month's episode, Mickey angles for a Seagram's sponsorship, and says he loves to go down to Peru to party with everyone's favourite rogue Peruvian blogger (who I scooped by posting this first).



Speaking of which, I saw that Resource Intelligence has a video feed on YouTube too. Here's a video on the mineralization of Soltoro's El Rayo deposit in Mexico:



Pretty darn snazzy, no? Now, how come Soltoro can spring for such a francypants presentation video and yet most other companies can't even put their holes up on Corebox? Or even give sufficient data in chart form that I can model the deposit at home in CAD?

I'm serious. That should have been one of my red flags for Aura Silver last year - it was impossible to model their deposit, even going through all their data at SEDAR, without having to talk to the company geologist.

If you have a deposit, show me the fucking data. Otherwise I'll assume you have nothing and move on, and good luck financing with a depressed share price.

Friday, February 3, 2012

market comment: disagreement

The PMs are down because $USD is up because the BLSBS report was frankly quite good. This has the feel of a one-day blip. Copper is up strongly, and I interpret that as meaning there's not necessarily any need to sell miners (since I feel copper demand should correlate a bit with PM miners, for my own inscrutable reasons).

If SLV broke down bad this afternoon, I'd buy HZU and double-long silver.

I've looked at a lot of charts, and while some stocks have come off a big surge, nothing really has broken down below its EMA(8) yet. This could just be a breather. Then again it might not.

I've cut back a bit, just because after all it's Friday AM. If there's a panic in the afternoon, retail will sell into thin bids and maybe I can get some old girlfriends back in my portfolio at deeply discounted prices.

BTW... I sold my GOZ. Got .94 for it. It's closed the arb between itself and ELG... well actually, ELG ook a dive and faceplanted below $1. So I'm out. Not as much profit as I wanted... but then again, it's still a good pile of money towards this month's quota.

Oh also, some are saying the S&P and QQQ have hit target, so I guess the whole market is going to pull back for a couple days. But then I think it'll start up again.

Euro doom? UST10 yield dropped .11 to 1.93 today. So, uh, no, not today. Italy and Spain 10 yields both moved up today too, but we're still only at Italy 5.66% and Spain 4.93%. I'd expect Spain to overtake Italy, since frankly it's the Spanish that are in severe budget trouble, not Italy - Italy just has a large debt.

Hm. Australia 10-year yield is 3.71%, yet they're a major commodity exporter, self-sufficient, and about the most ignorantly conservative country outside of the USA. Meanwhile, Japan's unserviceable debt is at 0.95% for 10 year. Just goes so show you, eh? Bond market is truly bullshit after all.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Explorecos, "stop sucking" the new strategy?




ATC.V went foom today. I got in at $3.55, it'll be fun to see where this stops.

KGN.TO also went foom. I might grab some tomorrow.

After all, the spiteful and childish superundervaluation of attractive developed exploration properties can't continue when buyouts are quite obviously the order of the day again, no?

It's not that I think so. It's just that I think that all of a sudden the market thinks so.

Friday videos, make people very uncomfortable edition.

So, okay, here's Sonic Youth doing Silver Rocket....



Nice to see there's at least one "punk" band who's willing to allow people to copy embed html to share their videos across the internet. It was still the last good album you guys ever did, Thurston, and it's embarassing to see you guys trying to play this stuff today, but even still, thanks for staying true to the spirit, except of course for that long period of time when you signed a bunch of really shitty bands to Geffen.

Anyway... the cute, innocent, intellectual looking guy on drums used to be in another, more truly punk band, called The Crucifucks. Amazingly, here's a video of them:



Of course, if I really wanted to inflict pain, I'd give you an actually very good quality video of Coil doing "What Kind of Animal Are You". Um, so here it is, in fact:



And yes, Coil were punk.

But instead we'll do more of the mainstream punk for you. Here's a decent video of the Dead Kennedys doing "Holiday in Cambodia" live:



Oh, and speaking of punk...



No. Nirvana was never punk. They were fucking self-important whiney no-talent heroin addicts. Most of that Seattle lot were. Miley Cyrus, however, proves with the above performance that she is punk. Cos you'd have to be way punk to cover this song when you're Miley Cyrus.

I mean, really. She is publicly digging up the rotting corpse of a heroin addict and defiling it in front of thousands of people. Every night. OMG Miley, I so love you and want to marry you. Be my dearest love, Miley.

On being right - Kiron Sarkar

Here's an example of someone who's right: Kiron Sarkar, over at Ritholtz.

Read what he has to say in this article - especially the bit about the Eurozone LTRO facility.

Here's the important bit:

"...the ECB’s LTRO – a REAL GAME CHANGER, as I keep banging on and on and………. I expect the next LTRO to be taken up even more so than previously. The key is that there is little, if any, stigma attached for banks to participate. Indeed, if I was a shareholder of a bank that did not take up as much as possible, I would be thoroughly annoyed, to put it mildly. The other issue that Ulick – my very clued up friend from Credit Suisse – points out that confidence is rising – BULLISH and funds are SERIOUSLY UNDER INVESTED, particularly in the FINANCIALS."

That's why the S&P may exceed last year's high, and soon.

On being wrong - hint: it's you, never the market.

Good post on the Reformed Borker about being wrong.

Basically, even major fund managers were horrifically wrong last year. Yet they can't admit it: instead they say the markt was wrong and they were right.

Hoo boy! If your money has been invested with anyone like that, get out now. I've been transcribing a lot of the maxims that I read in various trading books last year, and among the most important is this:

The market is never wrong. If you disagree with the market, you must be the one who's wrong.

It's formulated other ways as well. E.g., Only a fool stays wrong, never disagree with the market, you make more money being in agreement with the market than you do being right, and so on.

Important to remember. It doesn't matter if you're right or wrong. Ultimately, you're supposed to be making money, and if being right isn't working, then you're a fool, and you certainly shouldn't be managing billions of dollars of OTM. In the case of Bruce Berkowitz and John Paulson, they both should be flipping burgers by now.

Speaking of which, that silly "$HUI:$SPX" chart makes sense now

GT at Biiwii has a $HUI:$SPX chart which shows that $HUI should strongly outperform the S&P 500. Not just a bit, but by something crazy like 30%, just to get back to the top of its 3-year range.

I said "foo, meh, balderdash and humbug". Cos I was sour the miners.

Now, if we're going to start getting interest in the sector because of the Glencore/Xstrata merger, I can see that all of a sudden there is a catalyst that you might expect to drive the $HUI upwards. Cos the miners, as an investment space, certainly do suck right now.

Sometimes them techie analysts really do blow me away.

Maybe this is what's up with SBB?

I thought Newmont had nothing to do with the SBB share price dive. I thought only something to do with Xstrata and the Hackett silver stream could possibly be behind a drop in SBB's price.

Now we hear Xstrata and Glencore might merge.

Glencore-Xstrata merger speculation hits the intarwebz

GOZ and arb?

I'm no retired professional analyst/beancounter like Otto, but with that caveat of ignorance in mind, I see no reason to sell GOZ at a more than 10% discount to ELG.

I'm not selling til the prices equalize.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Teh stoopid it burns

OMG so some moran on the boards was saying he didn't think you can mine in the NWT. "Hope bay closed, Meadowbank at $1000 cash costs... feh! Nobody can mine in the Arctic."

I had to list off Kupol and Norilsk (much worse weather than southern Nunavut), and point out that Diavik is near SBB's properties (well... as near SBB as Hope Bay is).

Then on the GOZ board I almost finished a sentence explaining what a warrant is before teh stoopid got too much and I had to flee.

Remind me to never go to Stockhouse again.

Oh - in other news, GOZ is being bought out by Elgin, the Astur deal is history. Thank god, I thought February was going to be a bad month for profits.

Sabina Silver gets flushed down the toidy

SBB, so recently at $4.50, is now flirting again with $3.80.

Apparently Newmont has decided to put their Hope Bay project on hold. That's in the vague vicinity of SBB's Nunavut properties or something, within 100-200 miles or so, or something; so people have now decided to sell Sabina. I guess maybe they're assuming that now Xstrata will decide they won't be developing Hackett Bay, so Sabina won't be getting that 3Moz Ag/y, which I ignorantly and probably entirely incorrectly value at a NPV(10%) of $445M?

Meh... too bad that I didn't sell more SBB at $4.50... but then again, whoopee for me. I've been watching DPM and BTO running away on me, due to my own failure to buy what's going up, and now I get a chance to buy SBB back at a discount.

I'll get very worried and flustered if SBB dumps below $3.70 - that's the horizontal resistance on the chart. But I don't see why it should. $160M cash plus the royalty for Hackett totals their entire market cap.

As for the rest of things... yes, yesterday I sold an awful lot of stocks to cash up. Things looked toppy in general (uh... not DPM and BTO, of course - I've got to learn to buy stocks after they've started going up and quit my whining). But I also added to my RIO position. And today, obviously, I've added SBB.

That might be it, though. NGD, SWD and RIO are still advancing, and those are my holds right now. I might prefer to have some cash on hand... who knows what tomorrow brings? Plus, I made a 6% profit on my capital last month, and that's without participating as much as I should have in FVI, RIO, BTO, NGD, DPM, AQM, AZC, MFL, AR... pfew. Boy I suck, and yet I still made 6% in a month.

But risk is higher now with a lot of things into overbought territory on the RSI, and S&P nearing some analysts' target of 1340. Thing are supposed to be bad! Oh noes! So I should cut back and wait for a new bottom-buy opportunity; that's after all how I made this month's money.

Monday, January 30, 2012

BTO and Ford Equity Research

BTO was downgraded to a "sell" this morning by Ford Equity Research.

My response is "who the hell is Ford Equity Research?"

They seem to have some sort of algorithmic, arbitrary, non-fundies-based approach to making calls on stocks. It doesn't even seem to apply to new producers, and doesn't take into account things like the price of gold and how it's been going up these past few weeks.

In other words, ignore. They ain't no Canaccord.

So I added BTO this morning on the dump to $3.68. May lighten up later when the price comes back - Friday's high was $3.85, and I'd like to see BTO surpass this today if I'm to continue holding. Failure to surpass might mean it's topping out, and that would fit with the idea that the broad market and the gold miners are generally topping out.

More generally, I look at the current prices for the stocks in my portfolio and am failing to be concerned. GPD is the only weak player. Well, and GOZ as well, obviously.

Silver is meandering, but is still within the Thursday-Friday range. SLV and SPY are generally down but with an upward bias. Greece blah blah. It's especially interesting to see all the bloggers pulling Godwins, making intimations about Germany's supposed fascist/Nazi desire to conquer Greece or something. One even said "I'm not going to pull a Godwin" - a few paragraphs after doing precisely that. Funny how the anti-socialist Austerians (likie ZeroHedge) want Greece to pull an austerity move, while not wanting Germany to actually be able to enforce it.

Greece's true problem, by the way, is a culture of corruption that manifests itself in gross universal tax evasion. It's a rich country, they just don't pay taxes.

on the other hand



On the other hand, maybe SPY is rolling over?


Thing to note - S&P 500 is not the miners is not the precious metals is not the stocks in your portfolio.

market comment - silver and copper are my bellwethers




COPX might be breaking down. SIL however isn't in trouble.







Copper's at support, silver is still above support.

All in all, this might just be more of a day when you get a pullback and a good chance to add to positions. The overall advance may be done for a while, things might be topping, but even then it's possible to squeeze a last few percent out of your positions.

Blah blah Euro market jitters blah blah. Whatever.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Golden Hope Mining is teh awesome

Golden Hope Intersects 6140 g/t Au (197.4 oz/t Au) of Gold
Over 1 Metre at Bellechasse-Timmins, Quebec

January 26, 2012

Montreal, January 26, 2012 /CNW/ - Golden Hope Mines (TSX VENTURE: GNH)(Pink Sheets: GOLHF) – Golden Hope Mines Limited is pleased to announce further assay results from its Summer/Fall 2011 Drill Campaign in South-eastern, Quebec. The company received results from 3 holes including BD2011-165, 166 and 167.

Result highlights are presented in the table below.

Hole Number

From (m)

To (m)

Length (m)

Au (g/t)

BD2011-166

260

385

125

0.52

Including

353

385

32

1.29

BD2011-167

282

335

53

0.63

Including

282

297

15

1.50

Including

329

335

6

1.25

BD2011-167

374

380

6

1024

Including

374

375

1

1.87

Including

375

376

1

6140

Including

376

380

4

0.59






Wow! Eh? I mean, wow! The bullboards are all abuzz at GNH's stellar drill release this week. Look at that headline! All the losers who bought my shares at 90 cents, and saw them plummet to the tens, are probably doubling down - yet again - on this amazing news!

They shot 1 metre at 6140g/t. And it's only 375m down. Now all they have to do is construct an adit to that depth, begin a 1m high tunnel, hire some midgets, and start mining.

Assuming that this is more than an isolated chunk of nuggety gold within a quartz breccia zone that's already proven itself pretty unreliable for grade. Cos, y'know, you don't want to mine a bunch of waste. I mean, you could just as easily have written "GNH intercepts 614m of 10g/t"... except it's not.

How do I know it's not?



Cos apparently (from what they're saying on the bullboards) that's a picture of the BD2011-167 that was assayed. That tiny yellow bit is your 6000g/t. Here's some grade 6 math for you: before you go all nuts about your grams per tonne of 6000, remember the denominator and ask where the heck the "tonne" is in all of this.

Basically, this result is little more than one of those statistical outliers that you're forced to discard when you do your block model of the resource. (Yes dumbass, look it up - you do cast away your statistical outliers when you block-model.) So then it all goes back to whether or not they can make a case for underground mining of 0.5-1.5g/t quartz breccia, 200-300m deep. Or open-pit mining of 0.5-1.5g/t with what looks pretty close to an 8-10:1 strip ratio for overburden.

I'm not economic geologist, but I say no.

GSR and possible major silver plays


While waiting for Gary's newsletter, thought I'd post the gold:silver ratio.

It's broken down through EMA(48), which supported it since silver's collapse in the fall. But it hasn't fallen thru 5, which I'd want to see if GSR was a real risk-tolerance indicator. Ideally back to 4.4 or 4. As it stands, this chart only tells me that people aren't sweating as bad as they were in the fall.

If it did break down hard from here, I guess the message would be to pile into the silver miners - if there were any worth piling into, of course. What do we gots?

Data as of 2012-01-05

SIL Top Ten Holdings

  1. Industrias PeƱoles, S. A.B. de C. V. (PE&OLES): 14.43%
  2. Fresnillo PLC (FRES): 11.58%
  3. Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW): 11.24%
  4. Polymetal International PLC (POLY): 11.20%
  5. First Majestic Silver Corp (AG): 5.35%
  6. Coeur D'Alene Mines Corporation (CDE): 5.10%
  7. Tahoe Resources, Inc. (THO): 4.58%
  8. Hecla Mining Company (HL): 4.54%
  9. Pan American Silver Corporation (PAAS): 4.03%
  10. Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM): 3.57%
I guess SLW has a good chart. FR, CDM and THO are also okay. PAA, Hecla, Silvercorp? Shudder. No thank you to all.

So assuming silver decided at some time to continue its upward move relative to gold, you've got SLW, FR, CDM and THO as possible quality plays. You could also buy SIL, but like buying GDX or other $HUI-based plays your return would be weighed down by crap. I'd rather own YRI than some ETF where it shares a bathroom with AEM, for example. Thus the same with SLW and Silvercorp.

So, we'll see what happens now. The market might be due for a breather. I'll especially be interested in how the market reacts on Monday to the various Greece stories that have been circulated this weekend by the ZeroHedge/Business Insider/Alex Jones axis.