Friday, January 13, 2012

Friday video - Altai Khairkhan

One of my favourite bands, no really, Altai Khairkhan, with a nice song about Chinggis Khaan.

I guess he's sort of like Mongolia's answer to King Arthur of the Britons.

Except, y'know, he killed and destroyed all through Asia.

But most of the people he killed were probably mean people anyway.

Anyway, I think the Mongols are nice. They don't want to work in the Soviet mines, they don't want investment banking; they just want to have a nice herd of sheep and ride nice fast horses.

Altai Khairkhan are from Uvs in Mongolia, but I saw them play live in Amsterdam.

market comment

Euro bond market doesn't seem to mind the downgrades.

I was actually thinking a few days ago that a lot of the mining stocks had been getting overbought - their RSI(8)s were all pushing 70. This'll take some froth off.

I dumped half my BTO at a small loss - I'm no longer convinced that it'll make its move up yet, and if it does, the small loss taken today will be offset by a much larger gain. Plus I don't want to get too underwater if things go bad - I mean, there's a whole weekend ahead, eh? Lots of stuff can happen in Europe.

With some other small moves, I've cashed up to 30%, which I feel is appropriate given the increased risk - embodied by JNK:LQD losing support, $VIX breaking upwards, UUP re-correlating with the S&P, silver moving down, the $HUI losing EMA(8), and so on. Not extreme risk, but you never know - like I said, this is one "bad news" item, all it takes is another and the market goes back to panic mode. Considering the market is already expecting badness (typefied by analysts' assertion that they remain "unconvinced by the rally"), they may as well self-fulfil for a while with me relatively on the sidelines.

At the same time, I'm not overly worried... I'm not seeing anything really truly broken yet. Even silver's still at EMA(8) support. You'd think with a >1% gapdown in the morning that it'd have fallen 5% or more by now.

Anyway... avoiding getting further underwater on too-large positions is cool, by me. I want to cull my miners down to less than 40% of my portfolio so that I can play more of the ETF space; after all, mining isn't all of the market, eh? And even when the metals go up, the miners still suck wang.

I'm happy - with today's losses I'm still up $6K on the week. Half of that was my sell of RIO... funny, now I can buy it back at the same price I sold it! I guess it all works out in the end.

maybe today's a headfake, maybe not

Maybe today's a headfake, maybe not. But the maybes, in addition to $HUI losing its EMA, the drop in JNK:LQD, and the seeming switch back to high correlation between the US dollar and broads made me decide to sell my HGU. Took profit, improved my cash position.

If it turns out to be a headfake, I might go look at HMU (broader miners ETF), HZU (if silver has just printed a V-bottom), or maybe some other miners again. Don't care. For some reason people think "imminent downgrades by S&P" is of importance... I think it puts 2-3 days of indecision into the market, as people slowly come to understand that it really doesn't matter.

Ratings agencies are always late to the show anyway.

But as far as my HGU - $HUI has lost its EMA(8), but HGU hasn't yet. Weird, eh? I should look under the hood to see what the difference is in the two - maybe HGU is more exposed to juniors? Broader participation in the market?

Silver is still above where it was on January 9th, by the way. Now go look at a calendar and notice how recent that is.


Thursday, January 12, 2012

Guyana Goldfields

Hey, I dunno... I sold half my $7.92 GUY yesterday for $8.35... then they come out with news today that seems to suggest to me that they've revised the timeline for their Feasibility Study, or something, I dunno, don't follow it too much, so the stock pukes back down to $7.49 or so.

So, now I've broken my own rule yet again... instead of selling the rest of my GUY at cost or so, I've bought back yesterday's sold shares, and then some, for another $7.50 or so.

I'd interpret this as me saying "yes, GUY has puked below its EMA(8), but it did so only because people are teh morans". I mean really... is this the first time you've seen a deadline pushed back, guys?

It'll be worth more than $7.45 in a month or two. They apparently are going to mine gold, or something like that, and apparently gold is all the rage with the kids of today, like iPods or something. Plus I'm guessing there's still some other minor news coming. Basically, a 10% sidestep on bullshit non-harmful news is a buy, for me.

Maybe I'm wrong though and GUY is now worthless. Maybe I should just blindly follow my EMA(8) program for generating buy and sell signals. Like it says in my blog's kicker above, anarchist sociopath, dystopian future, wardroids and piles of human skulls, and so on.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

all in all a nice day

Bought some GUY a couple days ago. Am making money on it. Probably should have bought earlier, around $7.50, if you look at that chart. Gave me every opportunity. Unfortunately I wasn't looking at charts enough then, I was still fixated on bullshit news and bullshit blogs.

Another resolution for this year, then: pay attention to the charts. Tune out the bullshit news.

In other news, dumped my RIO today when it started to look weak... put that money into a bit more BTO. Probably a dumb idea. Chart doesn't really scream buy that much... but maybe we can has newsflow?

Still have a good position in HGU.TO.

A nice L2

This is what I mean by an intriguing L2.

PS apparently production numbers come out sometime shortly, plus some happy news about Gramalote. I'm ignorant about all that, cos between the chart and the L2 and the new volume, I'm interested enough as it is. Tight stops of course.

George Soros, neener neener

George Soros is a big fat dummy. For context, this.

I'm still learning about the markets an' such; but between this assturdbumdicktardation of a call by Soros, and Bill Gross' infamous short-treasuries clusterfuck, I'm starting to learn that the multi-billionaires and so-called bigshots really don't know any more than anyone else about what's going to happen tomorrow.*

As the legendary Canadian poet laureate bill bissett once wrote, "powerful people can fuck up too."

* - note this does not mean "you may as well read ZeroHedge for all your news."

Monday, January 9, 2012

Re earlier post on BTO

So now all of a sudden BTO gets a mention in a newspaper article. So its volume surges to over 3M, and it threatens to break above its EMA(8).

So what the hell, eh? I'll buy $10K worth and see if it breaks above. Kinda breaking my own rule - it hasn't started going up yet. And it hasn't proven it can outperform HGU yet. And because this huge volume hasn't yet blown it past the EMA, that indicates that someone's still happy to sell into a volume surge.

That's three reasons why I should stay away from BTO til it actually starts going somewhere. But, dumb me, I liked the volume bar on the chart.

I say, good sir, if it pleases you we may discuss your opinion on Kinross

Yabut Kinross' share price is advancing.

EDIT (12:48) - to clarify, over this past week K's share price has been advancing. As in, it's above its EMA(8), unlike Goldcorp, B2, and so on. Even Newmont looks weak today. As in, it's a good idea to ask a stock "what have you done for me lately?"

EDIT #2 (14:03) -and yes, before Otto even submits his comment to this post, I do understand that my above paragraph basically boils down to "its chart doesn't suck today, at this particular moment, to a nonzero but nevertheless small extent".

Yes, but....

Saw that $HUI was weak this morning, and HGU.TO isn't inspiring so far.

So I logged into my brokerage to look at the possibility of selling and going to cash.

Then I saw that GUY is up, RIO is up, AR is up, PVG is up, XG is up.

So forget it. I won't sell while they're up. Though the $HUI isn't looking great on the chart, these better-than-HUI stocks are doing well. So maybe it's not a good idea to sell just yet. HGU.TO isn't actually looking bad yet. Just not inspiring.

Speaking of which... would I buy PVG or AR right now? Or RIO? Actually, no, knowing me, I wouldn't - but I probably should. They're strongly outperforming the $HUI and HGU (unlike BTO, if you recall Sunday's posts); so it's wise to ride the stocks that are going up, at least til their chart shows weakness.

After all - you could have looked at LCC when it was $9 and said "meh! I'm not chasing that stock!"... but as it turns out, it would have been a damn good idea to have chased it after all.

Basically, you want to buy stocks that are going up. The time to sell is when they have stopped going up. The time to not buy is when they are not going up.

And if you buy a stock that's going up and it immediately stops going up? Well, that's what tight stops are for, no?

That's the wisdom of the traders I've been reading, anyway. Bottom-feeding is just an attempt to get overly clever and make money on the first 10-20% of a supposedly possible future upmove. As Victor Sperandeo would say, don't bother trying to make money on the first 20% of an upmove. And as most will say, it's a bad idea to buy a stock thinking "okay, tomorrow it will start going up".

Be empirical: if it's not going up right now, there's no reason to expect things to change tomorrow. And if it is going up? There's no reason to expect things to change tomorrow. You deal with tomorrow when it happens.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

BTO, an addendum

But then again:

Why not just buy HGU.TO instead of BTO.TO?

One of my resolutions this year is to be a dick and compare every single gold miner stock with HGU.TO. Cos there's no need to buy a miner if it's going to underperform a 2x-leveraged sector ETF that's traded with good volume every day.

B2Gold chart

I'm perfectly within my rights to talk a bit about the chart.

This chart sucks. Green line traces out the resistance trendline of a downward wedge. Or whatever you call it. Looks bad anyway.

With that in mind, if I were some "horizontal support" type fellow like Gary T., I'd draw a pink line across approx. $2.80, and say I'd be interested in BTO if it fell again to that level - with the caveat that if it dropped significantly below that, I'd sell quickly and wait to buy back at a much lower price. So I'd try for a 4-5% stop loss on a buy of $2.83 or so.

On the other hand, if it failed to drop that low, and instead crossed above its EMA(8), which is still close by, that might be a signal to buy. It'd pretty much break that downward wedge resistance line quickly then, and print a >50 RSI(8) with a crossover on MACD almost instantly.

What gives me hope that the second option might occur is that over the past 4 days we've seen volume bars where the buying has outpaced the selling. I've watched BTO over a year on my L2 and know that it's traded a lot by "The Evil Empire", and they're happy to pull bids and watch this thing drop, leisurely moving their bids lower to accumulate passively, safe in the knowledge that some idiot's happy to dump at under $3.20, then under $3, and so on; but if now someone's beginning to get greedy and is pushing up the buy volume, eventually we're going to see that resistance line levee break, and JP Morgan and the Joos will start bidding up BTO again.

Big question, I guess, is whether the broader market will continue to encourage the buying of gold miner shares.

Basically, right now I'm assuming The Lizard People are happy to buy puked BTO shares for $2.80, and have realized that it's not necessary to bid this dog up cos it keeps getting puked back down. If it dives below $2.80, avoid like the plague til we see another support point get arbitrarily chosen. But if it instead turns up, goes above EMA(8), and starts looking positive, I'd pile in just because I've got this memory of a time when I actually tried to calculate fair value for BTO and got a good feeling from it.

There wasn't really a Friday video, so....

Hard to find a video on Friday. I'm usually working.

So here's Atari Teenage Riot live. Um... in the land of Hello Kitty.