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Saturday, November 10, 2012
News and commentary: their news, my commentary
Haven't been putting up these news stories in a while. Kinda figured you guys just go to my reading list and find the news for yourself. But sometimes I just gotta step in with the commentary.
Bespoke pointed out on Thursday that the market was oversold everywhere. What are you going to trust - your silly gut instinct? Or the cold heartless objectivity of statistics? I trust Bespoke.
BI runs an article by David Kotok where he points out there is actually a lot of clarity available, people are just ignoring it. He's strongly bullish from this point forward. I feel he makes some good points. I've been ignoring Kotok's posts at Ritholtz for a while - maybe I should start paying attention to him again?
Calculated Risk thinks the fiscal cliff nonsense is bullshit, and it'll all be solved. Because that's politics, and (as I like to note re: Germany and stimulus) the minute big business gets freaked out enough about the deal, they'll turn up the heat on their servants in the House to get things solved. I really should add him to my RSS.
Speaking of which, I've deleted a few feeds from my RSS recently. WSJ's Marketbeat seemed to be a bit of a waste of time - all I do is scan the headlines. So, delete it.
I was also temporarily subscribed to the Uncommon Wisdom Daily blog, just to check it out. I like Brodrick, but the other writers there are utterly worthless to me - the same political dogma bullshit that I can follow anywhere else and lose the same amount of money on in the market because it's wrong. Meanwhile, there was also a horribly pumpy promo selling a Brodrick writeup that just made him look bad by association. So it goes off my list as well. Sorry Sean, I like you, but I won't wade through a mountain of garbage to find you. Start your own blog please.
I think there were one or two other blogs I've deleted. Ritholtz is actually teetering on the precipice. And I might delete my Bull Market Run feed.
All this because I don't need news. I need the truth.
You do too, so you should also look into culling your newsfeeds. Just a bit. Maybe just one feed for starters, and see how it goes.
Speaking of which, here's another guy who I'm about to delete unless he fucking cleans up quick:
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) is now forwarding some other loon's idiotic idea that we're drawing a gigantic head and shoulders that will ultimately drive the NYSE Composite down to 2000. I.e. down 75% from today. And that's only if you use the log scale - a linear scale gives you a target of negative 2000 or worse.
This sort of collapse porn, which Ritholtz has also gotten into, makes me think that Josh Brown and Ritholtz and that whole doomer crowd has gotten heavily into the blow and are now suffering from cocaine psychosis. I'm fucking serious: I fail to find any explanation which doesn't involve massive drug use.
Now, is there a drop coming in the market, long-term? Well, the average secular bear has three crashes, and we've only seen two. I betcha if we do see a 40% collapse in the next couple years that they'll all be screaming about how we're about to see the market collapse into nothingness.
And that'll be the time to buy because we're about to go into a secular bull.
Fuck you for your queerboy doomer shit, Brown. Just remember you're not a fucking economist, you were a telemarketer in a fucking bucket shop and then you started a blog about it.
And whatever happened to the sane Ritholtz who used to say "when the market's going up, I'm supposed to be making money"? Where's the sane Ritholtz who says "when the music's playing you're supposed to dance"? I'll tell you - these guys have let their heads get swelled by a couple years of attention, and now they've turned into self-referential cokeheads who fuck knows might start stocking up on weapons and silver rounds next, renting out their buttholes to Sprott and Casey, and giving half-hour talks on some podcast about the coming apocalypse.
I bet they find Jesus next.
Fuckwads.
I can get enough of that shit from ZeroHedge. Is that where you want to be posting a year from now? Grow the fuck up and give me hard data that I can base an investment decision on. Otherwise say hello to the militia crowd, that'll be what's left of your readership.
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I don't read the Borker, but do have Ritholtz on RSS and agree he's gone a bit doomer* recently. It's not overuse of coke though. I think he's been hanging round John Mauldin too much and buying into his claptrap. Where's that "BANG!" moment of his gone, eh? Strange how he's stopped talking about that one.
ReplyDeleteThe other thing that's occurred to me is that the Sandy storm has affected the NYC psyche. I know that BR was doomering pre-strom too, but it seems to have concentrated the atmosphere since then. BR's not the only NYC based commentator who's starting to buy the GATA-style nonsense, either, but the difference is that they don't go All In (hah!) and will leave themselves a path back to reality.
The fiscal cliff story will be interesting however. I'm betting we'll see a round of hardball brinkmanship on that one and that moneymen up and down the country don't enjoy their xmas turkey so much due to indigestion.
*note the "hmmm, perhaps he's gone a bit doomer" line to agree with "fucktarddickwadcocainecollapseporn"...but y'know...details.
I've been in "natural disasters" and when you come out the other side it makes you feel full of life and able to meet challenges - you don't come out of them perversely hoping for another one.
DeleteYes re Mauldin, but that Big Picture Conference had a bunch of other doomers there too.
I'm more in the camp with the rational calm commentators, who seem to suggest that this past election will inspire the Rethuglicunts to work with Obama instead of more obstruction. Also, as someone way clever has noted (Calculated Risk? Wiesenthal?), the do-nothing option doesn't destroy everything, and actually solves the debt problem in one swell foop: the Rethuglicunts are actually required to do something constructive in the next 2 months, Obama can live without them.
Frankly, I think the "fiscal multiplier" for rich people's money is more like 0.01, so upping taxes on them shouldn't hurt the economy at all; and cutting defense spending also shouldn't hurt the economy more than, oh, getting the hell out of Iraq did.
We'll see; some clever commentator suggested that the "fiscal cliff" dooming is entirely manufactured by rich hedge-fund cunts who simply don't want to pay more taxes, so they freak everyone out in an attempt to get the poor on their side. I.e., it's bullshit propaganda.
any way to reach you by email?
ReplyDeleteI won't take it personally that you aren't reading me on UWD anymore. As for the markets -- one reason I enjoy reading your blog is because we agree on the markets a lot. And I found David Kotok's ignored (apparently) column very interesting, and I think we're seeing a lot of fear being priced in that will ultimately come to naught in a "face-ripper" rally. I believe what the markets are afraid of is NOT -- as the pundits insist -- the fiscal cliff, but austerity. In other words, the markets fear that Obama and Boehner will work out a deal (with Mitch McConnell playing the role of the crazy aunt who can't be trusted around the cutlery) and impose an austerity regime that has done so much f*cking good for Europe, all in the name of placating bond markets that, if they were any more placated already, would be turning to cement.
ReplyDeleteStill, even though I'm bullish, if we're honest, we have to face the fact that the market seems more disposed to go down than up in the short term. So, if you don't see the prices you want yet, just wait.
Now, let's talk about the deal that's coming up in Washington. I believe there IS a risk that Obama will give away the store. He's an arrogant Wall Street toady who's too eager to make a deal. But I also think that there are leading Democrats who noticed that only 15% of the U.S. electorate polled said that the deficit was their major concern in the last election. What Americans are most worried about is economic insecurity. In other words, they want jobs. Meanwhile, our power infrastructure system is spread across pieces of kindling along the major population zones. You could put a lot of people to work burying power lines and generally rebuilding power lines, roads and water systems.
So I'm making the leap of faith that the biggest opposition that Obama will face in a "fiscal cliff" deal (and don't get me started on how it's not really a cliff) is not from the Republicans, but from Democrats who are going to insist that he NOT agree to an austerity regime. And I think they'll win. Because Obama is thinking about his legacy now, and if he loses control of his own party, this could still end badly for him.
Just my two cents. I think there are some great investments in infrastructure by the way, and we could see even better prices if the cry-babies on Wall Street really get in a tizzy. Which they might. But I'm optimistic that the Democrats will insist on the better part of the deal and start spending money on infrastructure. Will I be right on that count? We'll see.
Good luck to us all,and good trades.
Yes, please don't take it personally. I want to read you, just not the other guys.
DeleteThe fiscal cliff thing is funny. Obama doesn't have to do a damn thing - if he does nothing, taxes go back up, and defense spending comes down. So really the Rs are forced to deal with him to save their own skins.
He could even let everything happen, then introduce a bill to give the middle-class tax cut right back. The Rs beholden to Norquist would be forced to vote for it since it's a tax cut.
While I like him better than the Rs, I do agree that he is a Wall Street toady. Otherwise he would have accomplished something, anything, for the good of the nation in his first term already.
As far as infrastructure - I really don't think burying hydro lines is a good use of money. Your interstate system is collapsing and your airports compare unfavourably with those in sub-Saharan Africa - those are two better places for infrastructure spending. Sewer maintenance and replacement is also chronically underfunded.
But I betcha you get zero stimulus spending from now on. Unless by stimulus spending we mean another trillion-dollar killbot/wardroid development program.