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Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Just a couple premarket notes....
Bespoke - US bank and broker default risk. I'll save you the time: there is no risk. Thus came my suspicion that last week's selloff was just a plutocratic snit and not justified by any real danger in the market.
Biiwii - Junk to investment grade says bull market lives. Again, as above. And this even with the caveat that any ETF with yield would also be sold off in this market, because as I said before, it's just an anti-taxation snit.
Things reversed since Friday afternoon, since the American plutocracy interpreted the politicians' statements as meaning the dividend tax increase was off the table. If it turns out they're wrong, watch the markets sell off again in earnest. Because the plutocrats are stupid enough to desire to hold money in cash instead of collecting a dividend.
Because snits make you act counter to your own best interests.
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If I had my own blog I would post this:
ReplyDeletecheck out the major arb opportunity between the FNV b warrants and the newly trading FNV July 20 call options.
An arb opp between warrants and calls? Way beyond me dude.
DeleteCalibre Mining good, stack physical, buy silver rounds, guns guns guns, etc.
Don't be a wuss and just start the fucking blog already. I need someone to tell me whether to put my money in AUN.WT or P.WT.
No leverage in the AUN wts---2:1 at most. but shorter term, AUN looks good to outperform P.
ReplyDeleteLeverage on P wts is 4:1 -- could be big longer term.
At least the point on the B wts is that they are massively undervalued at 40 cents --the market makers pricing options set bids that are way too low and asks that are way too high. Then when gamblers step in they (the option market makers) make money either way
Please explain why you like CXB so much. Because BTO needs/wants to buy them? That alone does not sound great..can take years and then maybe only make 30% in the end. Look at Niogold and Aurizon. Not gone well for NOX despite ARZ having been "forced" to buy them for so long. Basically the payments ARZ would have to make to NOX to retain partial ownership nearly constitute the entire market cap of NOX; so "obviously" ARZ should/will just buy the entire company--that way they don't have to make these payments, AND they get the ENTIRE project.
Or look at Claude Resources and St Eugene Mining (if you can find data--claude bought them for a small premium a number of months back) -- St eugene spiked from pennies to like 30 cents, then settled back around 10 cents and claude bought them not much above that--similar deal, JV project etc etc.
BTO puts out Primavera results within 4 weeks.
DeleteBTO owns >10% of CXB at 25 cents.
Last time they put out a good hole, CXB popped over 50 cents.
At the BTO Q2 conf call, Clive said they felt Primavera could hold a porphyry swarm. BTO's since spent $1.5M in Q3 at Primavera so they must like what they're seeing and I assume news should be equal for price action.
PI Financial is accumulating shares by the millions and David Goguen follows BTO. Retail selling seems to have stopped so accumulation should require hitting the ask now.
I'm in at this price.
I'm not in to hold, I'm in to make a profit, and I don't see chances elsewhere to make 50% in a month with minimal downside.
I could get disappointed, but I'm trusting my gut.
And of course nothing written or implied on this blog should be taken as investment advice, an inducement to buy or sell securities, or anything other than the insane ramblings of an anarchist sociopath who dreams of a dystopian future where giant wardroids drive over piles of human skulls.
Isn't $6M/yr ($1.5M in Q3) sort of chump change for a $1.5B company like BTO? Doesn't even seem like THAT much for CXB itself at a mkt cap over $40M... And isn't the whole thing "low grade"..
ReplyDeletehaven't you heard? Anything around 0.4-0.8g/t is completely worthless and will never ever be worth anything. ever. even if gold goes to $3000.
pay no mind to all those existing producing mines making shit tons of cash with grades under 0.5g/t. like AGI, and bunch of others.
A $100M buyout would also be chump change for BTO.
DeleteI dunno, they think there might be something good at Primavera, otherwise they wouldn't waste their time. I doubt they want something lower grade than what they already own.
AGI used to make great video cards.