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I look at this and say "gee, I dunno... could be that we're bottoming right now". I mean, maybe the MACD is turning up, maybe we just have to test the Bollinger mean and EMA(16) a few more times before we break through, gosh that Wednesday white candle looks hopeful....
But then I bring up the weekly:
And fine, maybe we're bottoming around 48, but the weekly chart really looks like all we're doing is pausing in a downtrend to some lower target. We've already fallen through the weekly EMAs.
In this case, the resistance we're seeing in the daily EMAs and Bollinger mean now looks to me like not a bottoming process, but just a pause before further downside. Now all of a sudden I see volume decreasing over the past couple weeks on the daily chart, and I end up thinking "bear flag".
I don't know which point of view will get proven correct, but I just wanted to say that switching to the weekly gave me a much less optimistic point of view.
Rick Rule, Brent Cook, Mickey Fulp - all recently were bearish on j-miners.
ReplyDeleteAlso lots of articles and blogs about the great ETFs and how much miners suck.
I wonder, if so much pessimism among the mining bulls is there, who should sell now?
To me this seems very much like capitulation and therefore a bottom. And what supports my view: I'm completely alone, nobody wants j-miners and explorers anymore, everybody is (like always), extrapolating the past into the future.
You can also see pessimism in the comments section of places like Bull Market Run - I meant to do a post on them but haven't.
DeleteBe my guest, buy juniors and explorecos - but make sure they have the money to operate and progress. Cookie and Rule aren't saying they don't like them, they're saying the companies are no longer going concerns. Add that to cost creep among the producers.