Yeah, I know, I haven't been putting up charts recently.
Basically, you can go over to Bull Market Run, they usually have better charts than me. Bonddad also does good morning charts for the broad markets. And JC Parets puts good things up too. Biiwii doesn't stick to any sort of schedule for regular market comment, but he also has charts.
Anyway, here's my own take on things:
S&P looks kinda healthy, but maybe it's just going up as far as the upper trendline before slamming back down?
$HUI looks less healthy. Then again, maybe this is another effect of the US dividend tax increase? After all, the story of 2011 and 2012 was that there was no real reason to hold the crappy majors unless they offered a dividend; now that the US is fleeing dividend plays maybe that means the $HUI gets puked back down to the slimy pit from whence it came.
GDXJ looks worse - sort of a "we know the puke to $21 was unwarranted, but now we also think any rise above $22 is also unwarranted". Quite unhealthy and not the type of chart to stimulate optimism. Pretty damn pathetic, that's for sure. Thankfully, the GDXJ is made up mostly of garbage stocks, so its moves aren't as important as the moves of your favourite stocks.
Well, let's look at the charts for 4 juniors who supposedly don't suck:
BTO looks like its rebound is pretty much done, unless we can get some strength in the market. Pretty weak.
DPM is actually rolling over.
NGD might have hit bottom at $9.50, which is good horizontal support, or it might be about to dive real hard.
PVG looks boring and not inspiring of optimism.
I dunno, am I supposed to want to buy any of these?
My own little hobby, CXB, looks like it has strong support at $0.215; then again you could have said the same thing at $0.25 a couple weeks ago. Difference is we know it's only 3-4 weeks max before we get results out on Primavera, we know BTO spent $1.5M there in Q3 (which was 60% of their Q3 expenditures at Otjikoto which is going to be a mine), and we know last time there were good results from Primavera the stock flew up to $0.50, and you wouldn't expect bad results from a property that BTO spent $1.5M exploring this quarter.
If I lose money on a bad exploreco pick, at least I'm not losing it on someone else's bad exploreco pick, right? I prefer having nobody to blame but myself.
Nothing written or implied on this blog should be taken as investment advice, an inducement to buy or sell securities, or anything other than the insane ramblings of an anarchist sociopath who dreams of a dystopian future where giant wardroids drive over piles of human skulls.
Friday, November 23, 2012
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yes, you were supposed to want to buy pretium some time before it jumped 10%.
ReplyDeleteYes because it was so predictable that it was going to happen, eh?
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