Sunday, September 30, 2012

Coeur and RPM: wanna bet? (Cos funny enough you can.)


Jordan says it seems like everybody loves Rye Patch Gold right now. Everybody thinks they're guaranteed to win their fight with Coeur d'Alene. Someone at TRIC said RPM was a guaranteed triple. Both Sean Brodrick and Mickey Fulp were excited about RPM.

ORLY?

Just looking at the news releases as carried by Reuters, and not being a lawyer, I think the judge has a good reason to dismiss RPM's claims and revert everything to Coeur. Pedis possessio is not being used in good faith here: RPM can't seriously assert the land is theirs while they explore for resources, because we already know there are resources there. Coeur was already operating a mine. In fact, pedis possessio might actually be on Coeur's side.

But I'm not a lawyer. But that doesn't matter. The chart is the chart.



The clever little claim-stealing maneuver popped RPM as high as 80 cents.

Since then it's been all downhill. Right now it's at 57 cents. In fact I betcha that its recent pop upward from 40 cents happened only as a result of speakers voicing their excitement over RPM at whatever goldbug shows have been going on this month.

So why is RPM only trading at 57 cents? If it's guaranteed that RPM wins, RPM should be at $1.60 by now, shouldn't it? Or whatever target is the talk of the day. What's the target for RPM? A triple from here?

If you think RPM is a guaranteed triple, or double, or even just worth 80 cents, then you are implying that everyone else in the market is blind and you are not only a genius but also the only competent property lawyer in the USA. You are saying that protection of claims applies to predatory exploitation and not to an operating business. You are saying everyone else in the market is wilfully blind to a guaranteed slam dunk.

Trust me: if it were a guaranteed double, it would have doubled. If it were a guaranteed triple, it would have tripled. This isn't secret negotiation crap, this is all out in the open, documents filed in court and everything. Lawyers have looked at this. Law students have looked at this.

But I don't have to say "wanna bet?"

Cos in fact you can bet. Go buy your RPM. Buy it. It's cheap, isn't it? It's a guaranteed win, isn't it? Buy it up to 60 cents. Buy it up to 80 cents. Buy buy buy. Get a second mortgage, any loan under 5.5% is a steal. Put the wife's money in. Borrow money from your elderly family members. Hock the car. Sell a kidney. Go on. Place your bet.

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5 comments:

  1. Agree with your thrust here. When the rush came December last year and the world and his anal yst wife were picking free money up off the ground 80c (now down 30%, hence the bleating for new buyers), I was immediately

    1) CDE doesn't NEED, as in NEED, the rock disputed by RPM for years upon years at Rochester in order to keep up with 100% of its production schedule. We're talking at least a decade, probably more.
    2) RPM dilutes its SH regularly, so why would CDE want to rush in and buy them out just a couple of weeks, or months, or YEARS after being made a monkey of by said small pissant exploreco?
    3) CDE can keep this tied up and pending in the courtrooms for years, upon years, upon years (hey, notice the similarities in the timelines mentioned in points 1 2 and 3?)

    And the rest is noise. Yup, RPM made a cute move by picking up the defaulted claims (and i betcha some guy in CDE lost his job cos of it), but the bigger guy can pick and choose the timing that suits on this. That includes a dust-strewn decade or so. RPM knows that, which is why it ran that recent placement at 50c to get $4m in the coffers.

    Bopttom line: Those that tied up money in this RPM "sure thing" which may eventually get sold to CDE should make sure you're stocked up on freeze dried readymeals.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Apparently there's a court hearing in November or something?

      With my own past experience with Revett, I think it's possible to dump this at 90 cents or $1 - as long as you do it about 5 minutes before the judge starts speaking.

      So, possible fun s/t trade there.

      But RPM's move smacks of perversion of the law for cynical ends. It's as if someone sued Apple cos they swept in and bought a lapsed patent for rounded corners.

      Delete

  2. I enjoy reading your stuff. If you were at the Cambridge House show in Toronto, I wish you'd introduced yourself. Did you see my presentation?
    Anyhoo, I thought I'd reply about Rye Patch Gold. It's obviously a gamble -- I think I made that clear when I mentioned it at the end of my presentation. But for some people, it's a gamble worth taking. Do I own it yet? No -- I also made that clear. My subscribers owned it once and sold it at a nice profit a long time ago. But I mentioned Rye Patch as a stock I would like to buy again. And I think we may see that opportunity this month. Buy and hold? No. Buy for a trade? Yes. Good luck and good trades to you and yours

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    1. Yeah, I only caught the tail end of your presentation. I needed a smoke and coffee, and a walk-round.

      I'm wary of things presented as gambles worth taking, especially when everyone and his brother is saying so. Plus, after looking into it I think RPM's got a very weak legal position.

      You really should do a weekly audio podcast.

      Delete

  3. I do a video every other week. Does that count? You can find it every other Thursday at http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/.

    I'm not a lawyer, nor do I play one on TV. However, I have spoken to a lawyer and a couple of Nevada geologists, and they think RPM's position is not weak. How it will sort out in the end is anyone's guess, the courts being what they are. I've asked the question if the courts in Nevada are corrupt, and I never got a straight answer. The answer to that question may be important. Best, Sean

    ReplyDelete

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