Friday, August 3, 2012

The whole sleeping at night thing

I suddenly decided that it would be a good idea to read up on BCM to help myself sleep at night, since I've really waded in to buy with both fists as the price collapsed. And, after all, while a certain analyst calls BCM a slam-dunk, worth something over $5 on the strength of Corani alone, after dilution to build, even at $25 silver, you never want to put all your trust in an analyst no matter who.

And yeah he's had great calls too (like FRG or AMM or PGM or VEN), but also bad ones, and how do you know which is which til they've played out?

And when you see a stock drift down stupidly and insistently, and you've spent a few years on the Venture, you start to worry that (A) bad news is on the horizon and people with inside info are selling, or (B) a financing is imminent so the "accredited shareholders" are dumping into thin bids. Or (C) generally evil is afoot.

Anyway. So I spent 5 minutes checking their end 2011 MD&A, and saw that they had $90M cash. Maybe $80M by today. So, no financing problem. Market cap at this second is $212M. So, EV is $132M, and for that I own what BMO labels as the 5th biggest silver mine that you'll see starting up in the next few years, at 25 cents per silver equivalent ounce. Valuing Santa Ana at $0. And their other little exploration properties at $0, which is probably okay since they don't matter.

So, why BCM go down sahib? Maybe cos Yanacocha's the only thing in the news in Peru right now? I dunno. Or maybe the Corani ESIA was supposed to have been submitted in July, and god knows if I can't find record of that being accomplished on SEDAR?

Or maybe it's just going down because other stocks have gone down, and there's probably still some bozos holding BCM that they bought at $10, and so they figure why not dump into nonexistent bids. Cos after all, it's not like this is the NYSE and bidcrashing is punished.

So, I'll keep holding.

1 comment:

  1. from most recent MD&A at SEDAR... this month is new estimate for submission.

    "Engineering related activities for the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (“ESIA”) for Corani continued on schedule during the quarter, with an expected submission of its ESIA application to Peruvian authorities in August 2012."