Comment on Biiwii's comment

Okay, so GT wasn't led astray by the Raoul Pal apocalypticon after all. In fact, maybe he's been misled by me into agreeing that Pal bottom-ticked the S&P?

Anyway, I'm outright stealing one of his charts here:

This is the most important chart in the world, as far as I'm concerned. I've been reading GT for 2 years now and I've watched this chart perfectly pick the tops and bottoms of the market. And if I wasn't such a goldbug fool I'd simply trade SPY based on this chart.

T-bond is "up there". So can things really get worse? Well, the chart has been breaking its channel and trying to form a new, more vertical one for the past few years; so if there's a doom a-comin', it's going to be an extreme one.

But this looks a lot more like a bottom to me (bottoms happen at the green arrows).

I've seen positive US news. Here's a list:

• there's been regular prediction that a housing bottom is spreading slowly across the various markets in the US. Once housing bottoms, it portends well for US employment;
• the unemployment reports hide an interesting secret; the hiring cycle is speeding up. I forget whose blog featured this fact but, drilling down, the weakness was expected now, and a new hiring cycle should start this summer;
• as Bonddad notes, the economy isn't as bad as the employment report indicates;
• oil has collapsed, right in time for summer, and Iraq is now pumping again - so gas prices (and other petroleum product prices, like fertilizer) should go own, which is good for the US economy;
• Democrats can hope for an Obama re-election and Republicans can hope for a Romney win.

So really, everyone is really more concerned about Euro Doom 2012 and China Doom 2012.

If Euro Doom is fixed this weekend, and if this weekend's data demonstrates that the China Doom is no more than the histrionics of a neurotic market, then we should really be off to the races.

On the other hand, if things fuck up more, than that t-bond chart above seems to suggest to me that we really WILL see an age of smoking ruins. Cos that continuum will get broken all to hell if it goes up from here.