Thursday, April 26, 2012
Why are you ignoring $BPGDM now?
Various analysts and bloggers are still mentioning GDX 41, or even $HUI 300, as valid targets. These numbers were last seen in the crash of 2008.
But we're not crashing like 2008. How do I know? JNK is doing well, silver hasn't collapsed to $8, S&P is at 1400 instead of 700, AAPL is a trillion-dollar company, China is "only" falling to 7% growth. These aren't congruent with it being 2008 again.
$BPGDM upticked from its bottom last week. $BPGDM tends not to reverse and tick lower from a bottom.
While I can understand the need to be very conservative and protect one's cash, I really don't see any more bottom in the miners. In fact, this morning I saw a few of my languishing explorecos catching pretty nice bids at the open.
$BPDGM also doesn't see any more bottom in the miners.
It's very telling when an analyst watches $BPGDM for the entirety of a decline, and then when $BPGDM ticks back up they stay stuck on the collapse narrative. The chart is the chart. Are you ignoring your own charts now? Look up recency effect and get back to me.