Boy, that sucks. Not only has my DOOOOOOM post gone viral, but now newsletter writers (er... GT anyway) are taking it seriously as a possible indicator of... I dunno, something or other. His words:
"I found your post unbelievably compelling. It almost hurt to read that stuff. Something is going on and I want to be on it."
Eesh.
Look. Here's the problem.
A bunch of Korelin readers have gone full-puke on the miners. They all want to buy Apple. Or SPY. Or Yum! Brands, I dunno, what's in the US press nowadays? Their attitude towards the various goldbug pumpers has gone fully septic. Not just tetanus-septic, but Father Ted-style "I've never seen an entire head go septic"-type septic.
They've seen their stocks go down, by one guy's estimate, "70-90%".
What the fuck do they own? Batero? Golden Hope? Seriously, what else has gone down that much? Aura Silver? Did they buy GUY at $9 and BCM at $12? Then hold through a whole year of suck? Even during my odd forays through Stockhouse and Agoracom, I've always met retail loons who will dump a stock after it's down 50%. Or 30%. Personally my pain threshold/"indicator of something not right" level is 5-10%.
So the guys whining about being down 90% are just utterly stoopid. They're the butt end of retail. The guys who bought GNH from me at $0.90 and held it all the way to 12 cents. Al Korelin himself doesn't own anything that's down over 30%. So why are his listeners blaming (among others) him for their poor performance?
Now, yes, a lot of stocks are down. But maybe most of those stocks sucked to begin with? As Brent Cook noted, there's a whole pile of garbage out there on the Toronto exchange: their whole purpose is to print paper, pay salaries, and pay an 8% vig to Canaccord. A lot is pumped to retail. So of course it sucks. Once a few people pile out, the rest start selling, and the idiots who still think the stock is the next big thing are left holding the bag. The entire exploreco world is a pile of suck, and (btw) even Cookie's LYD and AMM aren't particularly thrilling anyone with their charts.
And the majors are sucking, and even some of the juniors are sucking.
But what worries me is someone starting to take the whining of the butt end of retail seriously, just because I did.
Yes, I've already posted that I think the India demand loss worry is overblown. And Andrew Day is no idiot, and he thinks China's economic situation right now is no big deal.
But maybe something else is wrong? Maybe the drop in USTs is a portend of dooooom? Maybe Europe really is on the brink of a catastrophic collapse? Maybe the Yen is going to kick up a whole hive of bees that shoot bees out of their mouths?
I've been trying to read through the various senior miner MD&As this weekend, trying to see if the "DOOOOOM" emotion is reflected in their recent writeups. I'm going to be very interested in the next missive from Alcoa. I'm worried that maybe, just maybe, the butt end of retail is right, because now Rob McEwen is also saying that miners suck.
I dunno... all I can say is, thank god that no analyst of any importance reads my blog - like James West, Peter Grandich, or the Casey crew. You know, the guys with a readership and a following. :-) Because I'm worried that, if it became any more popular, my DOOOOOOM post might cause a bunch of people to say "aw heck, this is a bottom right here", pile back into the market, and give us a 2-day boost - until the miner indices start crashing again, because maybe there's something real going on here.
I mean - aimed at the chartie analyst here - we should just shut up and watch the chart, no? The Korelin forums are just noise that should be tuned out, no?
I really really hope I haven't screwed up the universe by pointing y'all to the Korelin forums. It was just meant as a bit of good old-fashioned Schadenfreude, it wasn't meant to inform anyone that a bottom was in or the blood was flowing in the streets.
Now... with that in mind, I have quite the hard-on right now to buy some $23 SIL and $25 GDXJ calls. Big time. 100 each. Cos I'm so, so sure it's a bottom.
I'm not usually right, so maybe that should be your contrary indicator.
Nothing written or implied on this blog should be taken as investment advice, an inducement to buy or sell securities, or anything other than the insane ramblings of an anarchist sociopath who dreams of a dystopian future where giant wardroids drive over piles of human skulls.
"....thank god that no analyst of any importance reads my blog - like James West, Peter Grandich, or the Casey crew."
ReplyDeleteBecause if they did there'd be multiple comments pointing out that the word for our heavenly father MUST START WITH A CAPITAL LETTER and spelling it the way you do can only mean you're going straight to lucifer's hangout when you've shuffled off this mortal coil, sinnah.
Oh, and buy gold. And guns. And butter.
I've already come out as a Satanist, so no harm there.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Westie is a bible-thumper, though.