Sunday, March 11, 2012

Tiny note on clarity

One nice thing about a philosophy degree is you learn to define your terms. Unfortunately, this leads to the terrible side-effect of creating counter-arguments that essentially depend on niggling over definitions, which then leads to entire subfields of argumentation where people do nothing but try to establish what exactly it is that this-or-that-word means.

But at least it teaches you that the first problem with any argument is the use of language. No word has a hard-and-fast definition, no matter what a Platonist might say; language is a social construct, and so every concept really has a fuzzy boundary.

Anyway. I do keep trying to remind myself that senior gold miners aren't junior gold miners, juniors aren't developed properties, developed properties aren't advanced explorecos, and advanced explorecos aren't moose pasture peddlers.

I'm just bringing this up in reference to Brent Cook's suggestion that this year might be "brutal". There've been too darn many IPOs, too darn many financings, and too much paper is about to hit the market.

But brutal for who? Are junior miners like Argonaut or Rio Alto going to get hurt? Not if the price of gold stays healthy. What would make a senior miner like Goldcorp go downhill? Not so much the price of gold as escalating capital costs (making it impossible to bring new properties online). What about developed properties like Guyana Goldfields or Lydian? It'd be capital costs again that would be the problem - their property value is calculated based on $1200 gold anyway. Advanced explorecos like Sabina Silver? Well, again it's capital costs.

But it'd really be the moose pasture peddlers, who have absolutely nothing supporting their price, who would get clobbered by paper, and tight credit markets, and so on. I don't think Brent Cook would ever suggest that we have to worry about the future of B2Gold, for example - unless operating costs go through the roof or POG utterly collapses.

So, there you go. Short note on clarity. And maybe if any of it is correct, then the place to be this year is the junior producers?

1 comment:

  1. Anyone got any thoughts on Timmins or Atna?

    Timmins is aiming for 130k this year and 170k next year at decent cc of around 600, seems undervalued compared to Argonaut at least.

    Cook mentioned Atna this week, and he owns the stock me thinks, and they have some nice things going for them.