A scream in the wilderness. A lone voice drowning in a sea of stoopid. That sort of thing.

Here's a fundamental narrative for you:

50% of gold demand is in jewelry, and half of that goes to India. Or something. So India is a significant driver of the gold price - a terribly outsized effect on the marginal end. Overzealous tightening in India in H2 2011 temporarily killed the rupee, making gold more expensive in this high-consuming nation.

Oh... and the price of a gold miner should depend on expectations of future demand for gold. No?

Now, here's a technical analysis for you:


Gold's loss of upward momentum began right after the rupee lost trend and took a faceplant in the fall. (I know this is a money market fund, but I'd expect its performance should somehow reflect something-or-other internal to India.)

Now here's the daily:


Now I would like to make a couple points.

1. THERE SEEMS TO BE A CORRELATION AND I WISH SOMEONE ELSE WOULD PICK UP ON THE IDEA SO I COULD STOP WORRYING THAT I'M IMAGINING THINGS.

Cos honestly, you don't want me to be the guy that makes the discovery that he's right and everybody else is wrong. You really really really really don't want that.

Now, I know that nobody in America would even consider the possibility that gold price is dependent on rupee-denominated demand. After all, that means they'd have to shut the fuck up about money-printing, and Ben Bernanke, and the secret Kenyan Islamity of Barack "Hussein" Obama, and oh that Mittens Romney will fix everything by eliminating taxes and increasing defense spending (seriously, what. the. fuck?).

But it would be really nice if someone, somewhere, anywhere, could repost this chart and... you know, do what the technical analysts do - draw a few lines and stuff - and announce to the world "egad, it must be true! The price of gold seems to correlate well with demand denomination in rupees! Why, let's follow the Indian economy and currency more closely, and see if this will provide us with some predictions for future movements in the price of gold! I say, old chaps! Let's ignore this American propaganda about inflation and the gold standard and JP Morgan, and just look at the rupee! What a jolly good idea!"

Sigh.

Oh, and

2. That correlation seems to have gotten broken a bit on the day last week that gold collapsed by $100. Meaning, I've got a suspicion that gold should have a bias right now towards snuggling back up to the rupee.

Could be wrong. Remaining agnostic for now. Let's wait and see.

But still, come on. Come on, really?

You trying to tell me that everyone in the anal yst movement is yattering on about gold, and yet not one of them has ever read the World Gold Council's supply/demand report, then decided "hey let's go to Stockcharts.com and chart gold versus rupee just for a larf", and then looked at the charts above, felt that all-too-rare "thunk" in the braincase, and exclaimed: