Friday, November 18, 2011

Occupy Toronto, yet another rant

For those who enjoyed my last Occupy Toronto rant....

Seems tomorrow they're going to have an anti-Rob Ford march.

Leaving aside the question of whether Rob Ford is an utter cunt (addressed fairly well in the Wikipedia article linked above, apparently), the idea of an anti-Rob Ford march is a bit funny.

After all, the "Occupy..." movement is supposed to represent "the 99%" - as opposed to, y'know, York University communist grad students, Palestine supporters, Mohawks, and members of CUPE.

It seems to me that a large portion of "the 99%" actually voted for Ford, since he has been elected the mayor of Toronto.

Yet more proof that the "Occupy" movement has been co-opted in Toronto by leftie pinkos with none of my interests at heart.

As I maybe haven't made clear enough before, I'd love to join the 99% movement, but it seems there's nobody in Toronto actually representing it.

Guyana Goldfields and a missed op

Here I was staring at GUY today, thinking "hm... $8.15's maybe a nice price to get in... not much downside."

Decided not to, and then bam 5 minutes later the news comes that they've received their mining license and now it's $8.60 or something.

all of a sudden, silver shoots up 3%

All of a sudden, silver's up 3% from yesterday's close. Which, yes, is still down 3% from Wednesday's close. But here I was, screaming at the top of my lungs that $HUI didn't deserve to gap down this week so hard like it did in September, because we didn't have the same reason for a hard-down.

I dunno what'll make the RSI(8) print sub-30... but 550 looks like a good place to start getting back into the market, if you're more disciplined than me and still have a pile of cash.

Friday videos, your dad was cooler than you edition

Hey! Since it's the 1970s all over again, with the rise of world fascism and commodity hyperinflation and all, I decided to give you some Crass today.

With spanish subtitles even?

premarket sitrep - and the rise of fascism by the way

ECB visibly bought some Italian debt apparently.

Some guy named Rajoy (Rah! Joy!) is seen winning the Spanish election, where he will happily serve the international banking cartel by crushing the populace with further "austerity".

Silver's up, gold's sorta up, Eurozone is uppish, futures semi-upwise.

In other news....

Oh yeah, Fascists/Neo-Nazis make up a portion of the new Greek "Technocrat" government. Not just any Fascists, but ones who deign to beat people's heads in with hammers. That's the country which, by the way, despite being "bankrupt", just got a $300M "loan" from the US to buy 400 refurbished M1A1 tanks... uh, in case they... what, declare war on Turkey? Uh... need to defend their borders against... uh, Albanian incursions? Oh - yes, in case they need to slaughter their populace.

And there's proof that the New York Times was embedded with the NYPD prior to and during the OWS raids. Uh... which were co-ordinated with other raids across the country by the Heimat Securitätsbüro. Because obviously demonstrations are "terrorism".

Stock up your guns and ammo, stock up on your first aid and food, cos maybe we're in the 1920s again and we're going to have to fight the second rise of Fascism.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

end of day comment

$VIX didn't end the day as bad as I thought it would.

People investing in $HUI may have forgotten that usually it doesn't plummet directly down - it just did the last time. This time it should work its way down slow. With a rebound here and there to the EMA(8). Cos that's how things are supposed to happen.

If there's any reason for it to, of course. Silver conveniently stopped plummeting at $31.50. Anyone wanna look up what tomorrow's OpEx says about that?

Still have some cash on hand. Want some BTO at $3.20-$3.40. Maybe.

opex is Friday

Sorry, looked it up. OpEx is Friday. Lots of S&P interest at 1200.

Thus the tomfoolery, I guess. And, of course, as usual, someone from Goldman Sachs pays off ZeroHedge to write a bunch of stories about the apocalypse coming tonight or something.

VIX - top or not?



Interesting, no? And most of today's upward $VIX candle got painted with that noon swoon.

With $VIX at 35, what's the odds it keeps going up? Maybe now's a good time to buy the broad market?

BTW, the noon swoon apparently happened because someone or other just now heard a rumour or something that the EFSF or someone won't be buying Italian bonds or something. I'd say that this sort of story coming out is a de-risking.

Dunno... bought some USA cheap. I assume today's not the apocalypse for silver, though maybe we could see $28 before it's all over - like we saw back in September, when the world didn't end either. I have targets for some other stocks (DPM 8.20, AR 6.20, BTO 3.20, FVI 6) but I'm unsure whether they'll get hit. But if not, fine! - I already sold them for more than these prices anyway. A while ago.

$HUI's RSI(8) is only at 39 right now. So maybe we see it fall to its EMA(250), at 545 or so? That's given us a few big pivot poitns in the past few months. And that would probably give us an RSI(8) of under 30, which is bottomy. So I'm not ready to go all-in with cash, but on the other hand I'm not holding everything back on the sidelines either.

crash?

S&P just broke 1217, which was an important pivot.

Thankfully I saw the stiff downslope early, and bought HSD at 9.49. About $50K worth. See if maybe I can make $500 profit at least.

Next pivot, a minor one, is 1200 even. But we already have a lower low right now.

This is making up for me selling my HGD earlier!

HUI 570?

I was thinking though, that if $HUI does indeed convincingly fail 570, I might want to buy back a short goldminers position.

Though really, that seems stupid; I should instead short silver, as that's the one that's moving at a decent clip.

But HUI 570 did seem pretty darn strong here.

A further note on the previous post: part of getting out of my goldminers short was that, frankly, the market's not panicking enough. I don't want to long a weak fear, I want to long a strong fear. Cos a weak fear can easily be overridden by the next dumb news item.

nah....

Dumped my HGD.

Sorry, but even though silver's diving, still the SPX isn't looking that bad and UUP and $VIX aren't confirming any sort of major crash. So I sold my HGD at a small profit and put that back into cash.

I'm looking greedily at AR and DPM, 2 stocks I recently sold that are now down. Now I can buy them back.

Actually, go chart DPM, AR, BTO, USA and BCM. All are now below their EMA(8)s and falling. Technically, I should assume because of that that the goldminers should continue to fall.

But there's some Fed dude speaking today at 12:50, and that's probably going to give people some dumb optimism. So I'll hold with cash for now - continued downside and I get to buy on the cheap, but new upside and I might be able to play a $HUI bear trap.

HUI bounces at EMA(45)



EMA(45) or so is a nice place to bounce, going by past history, and $HUI did so this morning.

So does it go lower? I wonder.

RSI(8) fell below 50 and MACD is triggering down, so maybe the $HUI will indeed go lower from here.

Should I add to my HGD (double short gold miners) position? Or buy some HZD, double short silver? I'll leave the rest of the money in cash for now.

silver $33

Just logged in now and looked at that little Kitco bar at the top and saw silver at $33.16.

That should mean miners go down a bit, and my HGD makes me money overnight.

We'll see.

That "Everything's In The Chart" Guy yesterday posted a picture of the $SPX painting a sym-tri - with yesterday's close at its bottom line. Uh-oh! What if the $SPX breaks below 1240 today? What does the failure of a sym-tri mean to a technical analyst? No seriously, I don't know, so I'm asking. MACD is triggered down, so I guess it's not good. But seriously, I have no idea what failure of a sym-tri means.

As Uhura said on Futurama: "violence isn't working and that's all we're good at."

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

end of day swoon

The broad market collapsed in the last hour of the day while I was stuck on the phone with my engineer debating what is the maximum span of ACSR allowed between poles according to the electrical code. (If you have the answer feel free to post it.)

Apparently someone came out this afternoon with a hurtful and insulting report on US bank exposures to the Eurozone. Or something.

Note that whenever I'm saying "or something" in my posts, while it does certainly indicate that I haven't bothered to do the research or supply links, it's also really because I don't care. I'm only interested in up and down. When the S&P draws a frowny face and threatens to close at the day's low, that's good enough for me.

Anyway. I saw the collapse, got off the phone before close, and decided to sell off a bunch of positions that I'd already taken earlier in the day. After all, $HUI was indeed conclusively dropping below its EMA(8), which has also turned negative-slope-ish. So why hold these stocks? I got out at a wash, no losses. So it's no foul.

Then I also took at $20K short position via HGD, just for the heck of it all. After all, if I really think $HUI's going down, then why not short the miners? And really, $HUI has finally dropped below its EMA(8) after testing it and failing. And while I mocked silver's flirtation with $34, it eventually decided to go right back below that. So, y'know, why not?

I bet, now that I've told you, it'll all move strongly against me.

Meh.

silver

Is this a raid on the $34 stops? Maybe a bit of a silver bear trap?

Looking out a week, I'm not happy with the market; but looking over the next day or 2, I don't get silver dropping below $34.

This post is informed by Turd Ferguson's post this morning that "silver absolutely has to hold $34 or it'll go to $30". TF has been burned often enough (ZeroHedge loonies often are) that I'm thinking the market is trying to give him exactly a fail at $34 before moving silver back up.

Not convinced either way. Just opining.

Stay frosty out there and remain cognizant of the ocean of bullshit that surrounds you. The chart is the chart.

5-word market comment

This ain't convincing just yet.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

evening post

Been watching Boardwalk Empire, at the suggestion of one of my sisters and one of the bloggers I follow.

Came back to look at stats, and saw someone come here with the search terms "gold if europe prints".

Uh... if Europe prints money, yes gold will go up. But apparently it's absolutely impossible for them to print money. Not because of Germany, not because of fear of "hyperinflation", but some other thing. I forget what.

A proper Europe blog is FT Alphaville. They're typical Englishmen, all fussed up about bonds and boring banker shit like that. (I can imagine them saying "eq-uities are just not for our sort of people".) But they have about the most intelligent skinny on Europe, to the best of my limited understanding anyway.

I think it was on FT Alphaville where I read the reason why Europe can't print.

Don't give a crap anyway. A Euro-wide bank run because of sovereign & bank debt collapse will also be good for gold.

Frankly anything's good for gold right now.

Um... except a liquidity crisis. Which, um... Europe is in the midst of.

Just ignore that stupid "Israel versus Iran" sideshow. That's just garbage printed for the entertainment of the fundie nutjobs like Grandich. I daresay the oil price rise might have more to do with the war impending in Southern Sudan... or maybe even this strange thing I've been reading about recently, called "winter".

Toldja so bitchez

Now $HUI's moving down below the EMA(8) after printing a lower high.

I will feign interest in the miners when $HUI's at about 570, and I'll increase the apparent conviction of my interest at about 545. All this depends on the RSI(8) - if it stays above 50, then maybe this is just a short-term grind. If it drops lower, I'll gain excitement at an RSI(8) of less than 30.

But for the time being I'm mostly in cash. Not really interested in buying HGD, as I usually screw the pooch on leveraged short trades. Serious, I really really screw those up bad. Lose money that I don't need to lose. Too much of a chicken to just sit on it and let the trade work out. Too full of indecision in a politically-driven market environment too. Better to just sit on cash, then buy up the deadly deals when people sell.

Speaking of which - I'll be interested in how some of the more illiquid stocks behave. We saw a lot of miners get puked into the market at the beginning of October, and then again in late October. Then there was another puke at the beginning of November.

So my question is: which of the stocks that I follow have been all puked out? Will people puke GOZ again, after it's shown that it has resilience? How many people are left holding GPM to puke it down?

I'd expect more of a collapse in the more recently-pumped stocks like DNT or BCM than I would in things that already dropped over a month ago. Older hands are stronger hands, y'know, that sort of thing.

We'll see.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Tomorrow and $HUI

$HUI's almost exactly at its EMA(8) right now, after painting a lower high, which itself came after falling through the EMA(8) and bouncing back above it. Look at the previous post's chart to see what I mean.

Assuming we end today like this, tomorrow will be telling. Either the $HUI falls below and comes back; or it moves up and away from the EMA(8) positively; or it falls below and keeps falling.

With option 3, I'd probably pick up HGD the goldminer double short, and use the EMA(8) of $HUI as my stop loss point. With option 2 I'd wait to see a higher high, then maybe pile back in, trying to grab the stocks that are late out of the gate (some of GT's picks tend to act like this). With option 1, all options continue to remain on the table.

Might take a few days for the market to figure out what's happening. I've got a meeting to be at all Wednesday, so I'm not interested in taking a position that'll take a couple days to play out. So being in over 40% cash (as of right now) is my least painful option.

market comment on a possibly topped-out $HUI


The red line means I don't believe in flag formations. To me $HUI is printing a lower high, and this is a thing it does when it is topping out.

The orange is to let you know we're in thick horizontal resistance. Funny that the "flag" is happening at resistance, eh?

And the yellow is to let you know that RSI(8) has printed a lower high too.

So with all this on the chart, and with shoes yet to drop in Europe, I'd say the $HUI's played out. $HUI's only been advancing strongly recently because the broader market's been responding to S&P earnings instead of threat of liquidity crisis.

I'll be happy to reverse my opinion of $HUI when it breaks thru that red line, or maybe breaks thru 610, or something like that.

So I don't see why I'd be a buyer of anything today. Though I did, of course - flipped a quick 10K into a pump, and back out again. Other than that I think I should remain a watcher.

UPDATE: Almost forgot. At the same time, $HUI was (and as of now still is) above its EMA(8). So technically it's still healthy and not falling... for now.

I'll be curious to see where $HUI could end up, if indeed it falls through its EMA(8) and assumes the downward-facing-dog position.