Friday, October 28, 2011

A few sells

Saw XG was weak this AM, so I put $20K back into it. Sold for a $480 gain an hour later. Not interested in pushing my luck. 2% in an hour is a good win for me, especially on a stock I don't care about.

I grabbed SBB a while back (thanks GT) for something above $3. Sold today, only because it was at a 13% profit and there's no way I want to give that back to the market. It should fly back up to $5, but again, not pushing my luck, not in love with SBB.

The $HUI should pull back today, I suspect; it's getting away from its EMA(8) and 550 looks a bit resistive. Also, Friday afternoon is when the instos leave, and retail might decide to take some profits here and there and puke into thin bids. Also, I'm sure people will want to lock in some profits before the weekend, as who knows what the weekend will bring? Also, I wanted to get back to a decent cash level. And a good sleep level.

At some point I want to write an article on my philosophy about cash and its potential opportunity value.

Friday videos - taking tuition on stock trading from Kenny Rogers edition

Kenny Rogers, listen to him:



Here's the lyrics.




On a warm summer's eve
On a train bound for nowhere
I met up with the gambler
We were both too tired to sleep
So we took turns a-starin'
Out the window at the darkness
The boredom overtook us, and he began to speak

He said, "Son, I've made my life
Out of readin' people's faces
Knowin' what the cards were
By the way they held their eyes

So if you don't mind my sayin'
I can see you're out of aces
For a taste of your whiskey
I'll give you some advice"

So I handed him my bottle
And he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a cigarette
And asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet
And his faced lost all expression
He said, "If you're gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right


You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done


Now every gambler knows the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep
'Cause every hand's a winner
And every hand's a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep"


So when he finished speakin'
He turned back for the window
Crushed out his cigarette
And faded off to sleep then somewhere in the darkness
The gambler he broke even,
but in his final words
I found an ace that I could keep

Just as a note on Regulus....

When the data finally comes in on Regulus, this month or next or the next - about whether or not they have an awesome mindblowing deposit, or just another few thousand acres of slightly shiny pica pasture - I swear that I will give all credit to Otto, who (along with Casey) has highlighted this as a possible superduper stock to own.

All the credit. All of it.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Extorre win

Boght 4000 shares Extorre yesterday afternon at $7.30. Sold them first thing this morning at $8.30. Say goodnight Gracie. Goodnight Gracie.

Now I'm wondering what else to do with my money. Might put it in HGU instead of one particular miner. We'll see. My DNT, SUE, and SBB buys look good. Already dumped AMM at $2.80 after buying at $2.60.

Wonder if I should buy Atac? It sure is mighty low. You think people will hop back onto the Yukon train anytime soon?

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Klishtina assrapes miners the way only a woman can

If you've been reading the comments you already saw that REG (and partner PMA) have been killed to death in major dumpage*. Apparently Klishtina has passed a new law in Argentina mandating that all Argentinian miners have to hand all their money over to the state**, along with any particularly attractive female children and house pets*.

Afterwards, all company executives will be required to kill themselves: gruesomely, if they want a more favourable tax rate.*** Then all shareholders will be hunted down and prosecuted as traitors to the Argentinian peasant revolution.**

Some rogue Peruvian blogger has responded by calling a blanket buy on everything Argentina, as apparently he's some sort of Marxist**** who likes seeing companies get assraped by the State (thus his undying love for companies like DMM)**.

I've personally decided to buy $20K in Extorre. I dunno, just to test out Senor Owly's understanding of Argentinian politics.

* - sarcasm*****

** - sarcasm

*** - sarcasm

**** - uh... probably true actually.**

***** - no really, I've found that you indeed have to label sarcasm on the internet.******

****** - please don't take this seriously and dump REG down to 10 cents on the open tomorrow.*

Muy Candente!

Candente's already skyrocketed up to $1.20. Ya, rly.

Of course every copper company I follow is up strongly. So, no big deal.

But I'm still going to assert that it's because of my fabulous expertise.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

On hammerblow torque

I'm very disappointed - I just did a google search and found very little on the concept of "hammerblow torque". We took this in electronics, so I don't get why it's not all over the internet. Especially as it's a Really Bad Thing.

When you have a DC motor, it essentially acts as a transducer. Input current (really) is output as force (really).

If you have a large load on that motor (say, it's a 250 thousand pound drawbench), you can't start the motor with all the current at once. The drive has to slowly ramp up. Why? Because force produces torque, and the delta of the torque can't be allowed to be infinite. Why? Cos infinite delta torque will actually rip the drawbench right off its concrete foundation. That's "hammerblow torque". The delta torque is such that torque seems infinite to the first approximation (inrush current to the coil obviously slows it down from infinite, as does any squishiness in the machine).

You want it to start as fast as possible, depending on your application, but not discontinuously fast. So that's why you use DC drives and not just a relay-switched DC motor. You essentially "tune" the drive to the optimum condition.

I use "DC drive" concepts when looking at the markets - you get changes to the input, which then produce a force upwards or downwards. Yes, there's also a lot of line noise. But it gives me a good understanding of where the market's going to go. Basically, it's a way of interpreting "market momentum".

When, for example, momentums change faster than usual, you know the "DC drive" of the market has had one of its inputs changed for faster reaction.

Oh, and mass psychology is indeed one of the inputs of the market.

A "hammerblow torque", in the market, would be a condition where you wake up one morning to see silver up $5, and then it pops another $10 within the first 10 minutes of the open. Your delta output isn't exactly infinite (there's really no gap up as silver trades overnight), but it's a really strong yank to the market.

A retrace to a fibonacci level (not exactly, but to some level anyway) is entirely normal - it's the same as the output spikes you get on a badly tuned DC drive. Bad tuning makes the output overshoot, and you get dampened compensation back and forth til it finally can settle on the normal - look up "sync wave" for an example of what it can look like. Sort of. Not really. But markets can do this, I've seen.

Candente?

Wow, my Candente buyout post seems to have gone viral. Either that or people are willing to buy any old garbage today.

Whoops... just saw that GPR's gone up too. OK, that's one point towards the second option.

Wonder if I should buy some DMM.

spike in some volumes - the best technical indicator

There are volume spikes this morning for GDX and for SLV.

I haven't checked the news so I dunno if someone's now promoting inflation again....

But yeah, cross off this morning's earlier post. This really looks like everyone should pile on board.

to buy or not to buy - UPDATED

$HUI broke above its EMA(8) yesterday, and today it's coming down for a retest.

So now is a good time to buy, no?

Well, I looked at a few charts. MFL is still in a downward trend with EMA(8) as resistance. So I wouldn't touch it. AMM is still in a downward trend with EMA(8) as resistance. So I wouldn't buy it. BTO is still in a downward trend with EMA(8) as resistance. So I wouldn't buy it.

I don't care what $HUI is doing; I have to buy individual stocks. And as long as each of them is in a downward trend with EMA(8) as resistance, I won't touch it. I'll wait til they finish falling.

Still, right now this looks like nothing worse than a consolidation day. Although it might be consolidation before further downward motion. $HUI, SIL and GDXJ are still in flag formations, and nobody has printed a higher high for this month's prices yet. SIL needs to get above $23.20 and $HUI has to get above 555 before things look good to me.

The S&P 500 is not the miners. Remember that!

UPDATE 1 HR LATER: OK, so wtf do I know eh. AMM and BTO are now strongly over EMA(8) and looking good. So I guess it's buy time now. Or wait for a retest that has success. Who the hillel knows.

Monday, October 24, 2011

market breadth appears. all is well.

Now, I don't want to give away the source of this info, as it's a pay-only service and they threaten to sue people who even just forward their bulletins to Gary Tanashian as if that'd ever bankrupt them.

But, let's say some charming newsletter, hypothetically named Fespoke Finvestment Froup, sent out a little bulletin tonight noting that today was a 90% breadth day.

That's a very good thing, it means everyone's piling back into the NYSE.

You can also see by the intensity of recent ZeroHedge whining that the newly-healthy-looking market has pissed them off to no end. "But mommy! Ron Paul says this is all supposed to crash!" That's always a good indicator.

Doesn't matter if China's gonna crash - in fact, I betcha it even crashes next quarter! - what matters is where can we make money right now. I got faked out last week (truth be told, I sold down to a sleep level), and since I'm usually the second-last fool in or out, it must mean we're going to go on a tear til Xmas.

market comment, and who's the next copper buyout?

Copper's popped 6.5% higher today, though silver and gold aren't that much better than last week.

Miners are looking better: GDXJ, GLDX and SIL are back up over their EMA(8), though they haven't printed a higher high yet so I'mm not convinced. Copper miners, though, have printed a higher high.

I haven't waded back into the market as I'm not convinced this is any more than the Monday Happies. Plus I still have my sister's estate to sort out, so I have insufficient time to deal with things. You don't buy heavy when you don't have the time to mind your positions. I've learned that before.

I was thinking of wading into the copper companies, as the rumour du jour is that a Polish copper miner wants to buy out someone in Latin America. Frankly, I doubt it's Lumina; I'm thinking a Polish company would be happy to buy a copper property with toxic byproducts like Candente. After all, they have the technological prowess, and Polaks are cheapskates who are happy to buy second-rate fixer-uppers.

Background on KGHM: their Lubin mine produces copper and silver, with Ni-Co-Mo byproduct (i.e. marginally messy from a metallurg standpoint, though nothing serious). Polkowice-Sieroszowice is underground narrow-vein, with copper in wet sediment, with a salt layer also being mined. And Rudna mine is underground room-and-pillar, Cu-Ag. One of those 3 properties is also producing some serious lead byproduct (can't tell which from their website). KGHM also runs smelters.

Polkowice-Sieroszowice, as you can see above, is an utter clusterfuck: narrow-vein, wet sediment, underground. Who'd wanna mine that utter garbage? Well, KGHM seems happy to. They obviously have fantastic technical expertise, and smelting experience, so DNT's shitty arsenic-antimony contaminated ore would probably be no problem for them.

Hey, so I'd also be happy to buy some AQM on the cheap, maybe on Tuesday or Wednesday when Eurozone fear returns to the market; but frankly I don't see why KGHM wouldn't be interested in DNT. I wouldn't mortgage the farm on it, but I really think LCC is too rich for a bunch of penny-pinching Polaks.

Now obviously, the million-dollar question is: with the utter fear in copper, as of last Thursday anyway, with all the China gloom on the horizon: why would anyone be buying out anything right now?