Thursday, October 13, 2011

the world is not ending yet

$HUI, GDXJ, and SIL are all at EMA(8) support or better.

Like I said, NASDAQ didn't confirm today's drop.

It's just a bunch of coke-snorting traders, itching for an apocalypse, who saw that today wasn't going to be the 7th up day in a row or whatever, and so decided to dump their stocks. They're buying them back right now.

Stay frosty and look for proof. As in "if this is the apocalypse, I wonder how the Q is doing". And feel free to exploit other people's fear. Until there's an apocalypse, your job is to make money. Don't forget it.

Oh and by the way, US Treasuries are still moving downward. 10-year yield has dropped from 2.7 to 3.2 or some such thing.

market comment

The Nasdaq is not confirming any sort of doom. So I'm not scared.

I bought $5K worth of AMM today because it was beaten down badly. And doubled down on PVG.

Let's see what happens.

Seems someone actually bought GOZ today.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

quick trading update

Yesterday I bought SBB bought SUE bought BTO.

Today I sold some BTO at a profit, put that money into PVG.

Also have dumped some of my 70 cent GOZ for good profit, but will hold the rest for earnings on Thursday.

Alcoa trade didn't work well - it's above my buy price now, so the earnings miss was obviously already discounted; but $CAD is down 3% (or up, I can never do the math) so I'm still in the hole just because of currency moves. This is an illustration of why I hate buying American stocks.

I'll keep my Alcoa though, as it's a small position, and it's a better play on base metals and emerging markets than some dumb copper miner, or Molycorp, or something. If you guys buy and hold dinky explorecos with nothing but moose pasture to their name, why wouldn't I buy and hold a premier aluminium producer?

I'm busy at work and sorting out my sister's estate so lack of posting will continue until morale improves.

Monday, October 10, 2011

QI

On this weekend's QI, we learned that in Norfolk there is a community of Vietnamese turkey sexers.

I am posting this here because right now Google only shows 8 sites that have posted that phrase. So now I can be number 9.

The Occupied Wall Street Journal

Issue #2 of the Occupied Wall Street Journal is out.

If you have previously been misled by the bullshit suggestion that the Occupy movement has anything to do with right-wing Republican politicos like Karl Denninger, you should read it.

Thank god the fascist nutcases like Alex Jones are going to see this, see names like Naomi Klein, and quit pretending they have anything to do with the people's movement.

link cleaning-upping

I've changed some of my links over there to the right. I deleted a few sites that I don't bother reading as often any more, added one new blog that I think is fabulous, and then pretty much re-ordered everything to better reflect how much I refer to their daily posts to inform my feel for where the market's going right now.

The one new blog added is Bonddad Blog. Really stunning. You must read it. This guy tries to get an unemotional feel for the market the way someone like GT does - but instead of relying on ultimately arbitrary constructs like charts and GSR and stuff, Bonddad seems to concentrate a lot more on the industrial figures. So, for example, he's the one informing my doubts about US recession: he sees that thesis disproven by the strength in US intermodal traffic and auto sales.

Um... I think I forgot to put Biiwii up there on the right, by the way. I'll go do that now, that one's fairly important too.

market comment, unimportant since Canada closed

Everything's up in the US today. Except the $HUI which is sorta just sitting there, within yesterday's range and not going anywhere. But it's above the EMA(8), which my legion of fans know is my magical technical indicator.

Apparently the Europeans have pledged to do something or other, and that's why the market's up. I haven't checked my news feeds yet.

I would say what's more important right now is Alcoa's earnings and MD&A. They're a bellwether for the global economy and for basic materials, so you and I should really care. Plus, they're the first in line for earnings season, so they will set the tone for the next month's narrative. I assume that the earnings and MD&A come out after the close on Tuesday? Apparently everyone's betting for a severe dump in Alcoa; so if I were a betting man, and if I liked buying US stocks, I'd buy Alcoa right now. In fact since copper and silver are up today, I'd expect Alcoa to go up tomorrow.

In fact maybe I'll buy $10-20K worth today.

Seriously. I don't think Alcoa should be at (checking the price) $10. It's worth more. (Though I'd rather have bought at $9.) There's no global slowdown. People are just being silly. My opinion may prove disastrously wrong, but... geez... I just feel so sure of myself.

Don't trade based on my opinions, whatever you do!

SP500's pivot points above here are 1195 and 1220. If it breaks thru the first, that's a weak higher high. If it breaks above the second, that's a stronger higher high. So let's see how that works out.

UPDATE: GT noticed those numbers too. What's more, in his chart the daily EMA(50) has proven very important over the last month's choppy-chop. So, given that, you can see why I suspect Alcoa is massively important to what happens in the next couple days... a good move might make everything explode way to the upside. Everyone is too depressed, and Alcoa could be the magic pill.

Or of course it could be the thing that slays the whole market and dumps SPX to 1000 or worse.

But I'm betting on upside. Because I can see too much childish pessimism and not enough good old fashioned greed.

And yeah, I bought $10K Alcoa at US$10.03. But the market looks topped for the day, so if it goes mildly down from here I might pick up more tonight or tomorrow at $9.50. If it goes horribly down from here though I'll dump, take the loss and move on.

But when you think you're a supergenius, you have to damn well act like it and act on your suspicions. So I did.