Saturday, July 30, 2011

Tea Party = Taliban?

I just realized something.

In this previous post referencing the article in the Guardian about the Tea Party, there was a quote:

"Martin Frost, a former Democratic congressman from Texas, writing on the Politico website, compared the Tea Party to the Taliban in its drive for ideological purity, lack of respect for tradition and unwillingness to compromise."

What I just realized is that you could equate the Tea Party's sabotage of the debt ceiling debate, knowing that it'll tank the markets, to the roadside bombs and suicide vests of the Taliban.

Both are ignorant mud-hut fundamentalists, and both are willing to fuck shit up royally just to force others to submit to their ideology.

Hm... why hasn't anyone in the press taken this analogy to its logical end? Or have they?

but then again, here's $HUI

Before you go off all half-cocked buying miners though, take a look at this:

Short interpretation?

Long interpretation?

RSI topped and CCI topped in mid-July. That would have been a good time to sell. RSI and CCI haven't bottomed yet, and now MACD has crossed negative to confirm (standard MACD lags the other two as you can see.)

$HUI is at the EMA(50). If it loses that, then what? Does it go all the way to the EMA(400)? That's where the last bottom was... but the previous bottom, at the end of January, was at the EMA(200).

So each bottom is hitting a lower EMA. Is that what you expect of a healthy market? Hm? Is that a market in an uptrend? Hm?

I dunno. I look at this, then I look at my fairly low cash level, then I remember we're drawing out a head and shoulders top with a target of 400, and I just gotta think maybe I should go back to HGD and double-short the miners if $HUI loses the EMA(50). There really are very few stocks I'd want to own after looking at this chart.

Keegan chart analysis by some dude who you have no reason to trust

OK, so here's Keegan. Hard to tell, eh? Was the recent move to $8 about all it could do? Or does it have more in it?

Well, it's about to cross over its EMA(7). Its downmove of the past week is minor, it didn't bottom on the RSI. It looks almost like the small consolidation in Feb 2011, actually, which was also around $7.50. Well, you wanna pretend that's your lateral resistance and use that as your stop loss point?

Hm... here's something interesting:

That's the 2-year for KGN. Looks to me like it jumped in August 2010. I mean it really jumped - from $5 to $8. After a May-to-August consolidation. Is KGN seasonal?

I have no idea. I have no clue what Keegan is. I assume there is rock involved. And Gary Tanashian likes it.

Well, if you feel the world isn't ending, and want to put a bit of money into a miner that Otto doesn't write about, maybe this is one worth looking at? Put some money in now, dump if it drops below the lateral $7.50 resistance area or below its lower Bollinger (which is pretty close right now); then maybe ladder in if it moves above its EMA(7).

Sulliden chart analysis by a rookie who just makes this shit up

Here's Sulliden again. In this post a while back, I presented 3 charts - USA, GOZ and SUE - and made ignorant ruminations on each. Turns out the SUE pick wasn't terrible... I said it was a buy at $1.79. I probably would have wanted to dump it as it crossed back below its EMA(7).

Whoops! Sorry! The last time I charted SUE it was at stockcharts, and had the SMA(25) and SMA(50) on it. OK. Here's the chart the way it should be:

Interesting... knowing my own psychology, I probably would have lost interest and dumped it around $2 when it started to dither about.

Now it's at its SMA(25), which seems a bit supportive-ish. And while it topped according to its RSI(6), its CCI(35) never got overbought.

So maybe SUE's not played out. It certainly didn't reach the top of its channel in the first chart, above. So, will it now stay above $1.81, its SMA(25)? That would be the question. I'd say this would be a nice place to buy - at $1.81 or a bit higher. If it dives below $1.75, dump it like a fat girlfriend. That's a very tight stop loss for you (3-4%), with the possibility of a decent gain (10% or more) if SUE's not done its upmove.

Assuming the world doesn't end, that is.

And I know absolutely nothing about SUE except it's in Peru, there's some rock somewhere, I don't know if they mine anything, and it doesn't make Otto break out in uproarious laughter.

But the way the chart looks to me, the possible tight stop and possible long gain make it a good buy, I think.

If the world's not ending, that is.

Tea Party article in socialist propaganda machine The Guardian

US debt crisis: Tea Party intransigence takes America to the brink

It's a different point of view, it's from the Guardian.

"Martin Frost, a former Democratic congressman from Texas, writing on the Politico website, compared the Tea Party to the Taliban in its drive for ideological purity, lack of respect for tradition and unwillingness to compromise."

Difference is, the Taliban actually have read their holy book. The Tea Party haven't even bothered to read the bible, much less Atlas Shrugged or anything by Ludwig von Fucking Mises.

The comments section in the Guardian is pretty good too, as opposed to the drooling subhuman peonasm that you find on most sites. Here's an example:

"The normal people of America, who always constitute about 80% of any given population, now find themselves leaderless as every psychological deviant in America (who usually constitute about 20% of any given population) rush to the Republican Party, and especially its lunatic fringe, the Tea Party. This is how mass minorities (the state socialists in the case of Russia in the 1910s, or the state capitalists in the case of Germany in the 1930s) come to power----the field is essentially abandoned to them."

Friday, July 29, 2011

friday videos

Well, I wanted to post a video of Rush doing "Cygnus X-1", since it's about spiralling into a black hole - like the economy is doing right now.

But I couldn't find it on YouTube.

Then I decided to go look for King Crimson's "Epitaph", which is also a nice depressing dark tune about doom and destruction.

But I couldn't find it. (I found a shitty John Wetton Band cover, and another shitty cover by some shitty King Crimson cover band that are shitty.)

Same for 21st Century Schizoid Man.

Then I figured The Kinks' "Give The People What They Want" would be good. But I only found the shitty music video, which Dave Davies isn't even in cos he and Ray must have had another fight that day. Nobody's ever uploaded their SNL appearance playing that song. Sucks.

So, fuck it. Here's The Yes Men Fix the World. In its entirety. Watch it.

Youtube has to start deleting the shitty cover songs that trick you into watching the first 5 seconds by not mentioning that it's a cover by a shitty cover band. And they have to start deleting the mp3s accompanied by a still photo, or photo montage. I'm trying to find good videos for you and all I can get is chickenshit.

market comment of dooooooooom!

Here's a quick check of the $HUI.

  1. RSI(7) is about to hit 30.
  2. CCI(40) is still high.
  3. MACD triggered down.
  4. $HUI is still moving away from its EMA(7).
  5. Oh look, there's a cluster of important moving averages providing support.

(1) is similar to what happened during the Fukushima shock in March. The debt ceiling "crisis" is a similar short sharp shock. CCI only made it to 0 then, and then the $HUI resumed its uptrend. Is that what's going to happen now?
(5) only tells me that the area around 540 may be "sticky" during a longer downward move. The $HUI could still drop, either to lateral support at 520-530, more evil support at 500, or... the drawing out of a H&S top pattern within a H&S top pattern, targeting 400.
(4) means the $HUI drop isn't done yet.

So either $HUI keeps dropping a little bit, or it drops one hell of a lot. Not particularly a good time to buy right now.

I still have a wishlist with AMM<$3, FVI<$5, USA<0.52, GUY<$7, and... I dunno, some other things. Maybe RIO<$2 and BCM<$4? Yes, I'm serious... if $HUI starts looking scary, I could snag some really deadly deals.

Don't buy on a resolution of the "debt crisis". Don't buy on happy words from the bond agencies on the "solution". Don't buy on a rise in gold, silver, or the CCI.

Buy on $HUI getting back above its EMA(7), CCI at least clearing 0 negative, RSI(7) moving back up from oversold, and the MACD histogram becoming less negative.

Because like I said yesterday, it's not about the US debt, the Euro crisis, China inflation, or whatever. It's about the start of the new recession. I think BCM could hit 50 cents on news like that, if we get yet another capital freeze.

I'm not for a moment suggesting this will happen, I'm just saying this is now looming on the horizon as a possibility. New ducks are already lining up in a row. Might take 2 years, but it's there.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Charles Oliver from Sprott on BNN.

Charles Oliver from Sprott was on BNN today for half an hour.

His top picks? Guyana Goldfields, which he thinks is only being valued by the market at $65-$70/oz. He throws around buyout numbers like $300-$500/oz, forgetting that it's in fucking Guyana for fuck's sake, which only has 116km of railway in the entire country, and only 30km of hydro lines. (One of those two factoids is actually true.) Still, he's happy to call it a guaranteed 2-bagger like everyone else who's following it.

Maybe I should get around to buying back some GUY shares. Just in case.

He also picks Bear Creek. The host on BNN says "I even have a few shares myself, and I've lost a lot of money on it." Ha ha! FWIW, Ollie also bought it at $12 thinking it was a great deal. Ha ha! He says it's "one of the largest undeveloped silver resources on the planet!!!1!" He blames the drop on Humala, forgetting that it's actually cratered because of Santa Ana being taken away, and that wasn't Humala that was Garcia.

His third pick is Hecla, but only because he thinks "silver is going north of $100". Typical Sprottling.

He also mentions Aura Gold, Orvana, and Agnico in the phone-in section.

Otto says "hey, Sprott has a good track record so it's nice to see them agree with me about BCM." No, they don't, Otto. They bought BCM at $12 thinking it was a good deal. That's not called agreeing with you. You said to wait for $5. Then called it a buy at $3.80.

Sprott now loves Bear Creek

Someone at Sprott just pumped Bear Creek.

Nice thing about Sprott is their followers are the most rabid of silverbugs. So, I think there's now a floor in BCM.

Let me grab some more at $4.50 tomorrow morning on the dump, and then y'all can buy it up to $10.

in case you're all hopeful....

It doesn't matter what the S&P or Q or debt or metals are doing, all that matters to the miners is how the $HUI is doing.

It's painting a hammer candle right now, but that means little. $HUI has to get back over the EMA(7) and stay there to be back in an uptrend. RSI(7) also has to get below 30 and CCI(40) has to at least fall to 0. None of those 3 things has happened yet. Meanwhile the standard MACD has painted a downward cross. So as far as I'm concerned $HUI still has a downward bias and caution is required.

He says as he goes and buys another $20K in stocks.

This was the expected endgame

Top bankers appeal to Obama, Congress on debt limit

The bankers always put up with right-wing ideologues and political posturing just until it begins to hurt their bottom line.

Note to the old Republicans: you don't have to be worried about voting for a tax increase and facing a primary challenge from a Tea Party loon anymore. The bankers have learned what a mistake it was to let lunatics kick out traditional politicians. They've got your back now.

quick market comment

Bought BTO 3.15 BCM 4.47 USA .57 (hey Otto! .57! Gloating still?).

Wish list EST .76, FVI <$5, SOL <$1.20, BCM <$4.20, AMM <$3, GUY <$7, COP <.60, BHV <.40, USA <.52.

My wish list is larger than my cash remaining, and the prices are generally unreasonable. That's okay. I don't need them all to hit those targets, I just need enough.

Not going to play HGD today. Market sold off in retail hour, and is bouncing back. This suggests HUI will paint a candle with a long bottom tail today. Or at least retrace. HUI's bouncing at the SMA(80) today anyway, and that's where it's usually sticky.

Plus the S&P looks like it'll hold 1300 while the dumb US government votes occur today.

I think the "debt crisis" thing is getting heavily overdone in the media anyway.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

funny pic

Next recession around the corner?

Don't miss the forest for the trees.

In this case, it'd mean to ignore the debt bullshit going on in the US - sure, play the market and make some money on it, cover your ass too; but don't assume it means anything. They've raised the debt limit 101 times in US history, according to Jon Stewart. I guess the ratings agencies' warning about downgrading US debt is scary... but really, is that going to happen? Honestly? You really think so?

Then there's the debt crap in the Eurozone. Italy-Germany spreads are going up again. That means nobody considers Italy's finances to be credible. But really, is that the root of any problem? We knew Italy and the rest of the Mediterranean were abject banana republics 20 years ago.

How about... The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is close to printing the start of a new US recession. You don't fake this number. It doesn't depend on politicians.

So there's a new US recession coming. And this time, there's no money to print! Those Republicans are fucking everyone now!

See? This is why you should read Ritholtz every day.

bailing on BCM, bailing on HGD now too

No, really, I was going to buy back the BCM I sold at $4.50 at the end of the trading day. But then some joker called a buy on it on his blog... next thing you know, people are barging in, buying shares all the way to $4.80.

Thnakfully, at the time I thought it was someone who knew what they were doing. Now, though, I know it's only a couple blog readers. I'm sure it'll pass. :-)

Seriously, I don't see any reason why BCM should drop below $4.50, and my chances at buying more $3.80 are nonexistent, no matter what happens broad market wise. Then again, the guys who bought all that >$5.50 might want to dump it all, and the late sellers might be looking to lock in profits... so, I dunno, maybe $4.20 could be the bottom? I'm only guessing.

And in case you think I'm clever, I also sold some BCM on the run-up, at $4.14 or so. As opposed to, say, at $5.70.

I also dumped my HGD at 3:45. $500 profit for 1 day's work on $30K capital. When the $HUI paints a long candle down, you can often see it retrace halfway the next morning as the hasty jump in and buy up deadly deals. So I might buy HGD back at, say, $9.75 or so tomorrow.

But that all depends on if one bad day in the market can inspire the doofi down south to work out their debt deal. Y'see, there was overnight market risk, so I figured taking my small profit and selling was most prudent. In my case, selling down to "the sleeping level" meant dumping it all.

So I plowed that $30K into some FVI at $5.50, and buying back some BTO at $3.24. Still have lots of cash left in case things do go bad tomorrow, I've already made up a shopping list of stocks if that doesn't happen, and I'm sure I can dump my FVI in the AM for a bit of a profit.

comment on SLV

I find it interesting that on a major risk-off day like today, silver is down 1%.

You'd not expect that if people were expecting that the default or debt downgrade of the US was going to result in a devaluation of the dollar and advent of a new metal-backed currency, right?

I mean, silver should be up like 10% today.

Ooh, gold's even down 0.4%.

US dollar is up 0.8%.

Funny, eh?

quick update

GT points out this morning that $HUI is toppy, and now's a good time to take some profits, he thinks.

So I dumped a small amount of BCM (played out for now, will get back in later) and BTO (still have lots, just took profits on a small bit), and put that $20K into a double short gold miners (HGD on the TSX).

I'm treating that short as insurance, for now. Thankfully, $HUI is acting weaker than the S&P 500. $HUI was toppy anyway, as I kept saying. So I'll be happy to buy back some stock after $HUI retreats a bit. Still have some extra cash to plow in if I want to ladder up.

I just have to concentrate and remind myself that no matter what the metals are doing, no matter what the S&P and Q are doing, my criterion for this HGD trade is the $HUI staying below its EMA(7).

It shouldn't be a long fall because it's $HUI buying season. This is just a small correction, and I want to make an extra $1-$2K as the $HUI falls, before throwing that money back into stocks... like into US Silver at 58 cents, eh Otto? :-)

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

one last thing

Just a reminder to myself for Wednesday. If there's a major selloff happening in the afternoon and no debt deal, just get the fuck out and cash up.

Grandich uses point & figure charts

It's a moot point now as the S&P has backed off; but last week Grandich was saying that the S&P was about to flash a major bullish signal - by point & figure.

He's one of those bloggers whose politics are odious (he's always on about war against muslims), but I'm always interested in reading him for those 1% of posts where he actually calls tops and bottoms.

It's interesting that he uses point & figure though. That's about as old-fashioned as writing out your blog post on brown paper with a charcoal pencil, then reading it out to a radiotelegraph operator. While wearing a monocle. In a zeppelin. Over Austria-Hungary.

There's a theory that once a technical analysis tool becomes well-known, it becomes obsolete. That's why nobody wants to talk about their proprietary methods in trading books. I guess this might have the corollary that once a technical analysis tool becomes completely forgotten, it becomes useful again?

Anyway... I guess the idea is that if the clowns down south reach a debt deal, then it'll be uber-bullish.

Funny Brent Cook quote

It's funny because he agrees with me.

"If you go to a company's website and all you see is, say, an American Flag and an eagle and the Statue of Liberty and a bunch of gold bars, that's not a good sign."

Then he even chuckled.

Brent Cook on BNN - hat tip Brent's fanboy.

learning comes everywhere

Just because I think Turd Ferguson is a loon doesn't mean I don't read his blog.

He had a half-useful post today on a possible near-term scenario. $USD collapses below May low, forcing US government to suddenly quit playing like brats and forge a debt solution.

The resulting quick upmove in $USD weakens the PMs and commods, they take a short-term dive, and there you go. All of a sudden I have a reason why my $HUI chart from earlier today would back off to at least the 550s.

Because it has to, cos every time the RSI(7) got to where it got recently, and the CCI(40) got to where it got recently, the $HUI has taken a dive. At least a short-term one.

Was silver pinned for Opex?

Was silver pinned at $40.50 today for options expiry?

It popped upwards right after 1:30.

Almost makes me want to put my double long back on.

Not quite.

HUI 1 yr - see something?

See something?


PS today's silver gyration (now up to $40.50) isn't fooling me.

quotes by GK Chesterton

"The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected." - GK Chesterton

When The Times invited several eminent authors to write essays on the theme "What's Wrong with the World?" Chesterton's contribution took the form of a letter:

Dear Sirs,

I am.

Sincerely yours, G. K. Chesterton

market comment, BTO

BTO seems to be making one of its patented upmoves. Dunno if there's any reason for this. To his credit, Gary Tanashian (who seems to be prognosticate on individual stock charts pretty well) picked this one out just this weekend as ready for an upmove. No target, but it's already broken his symmetrical triangle to the upside. I doubt it can go far... but it's always surprised me to the upside. Thankfully I am rather heavy in BTO, taking Otto's advice to own larger amounts of good stocks and small amounts of pennycrappers (for the most part).

$HUI opened downward (retail dumping), but has since begun moving up. Dunno... without a close well above 580, I feel $HUI is done and ready for a drop of 30-50 points. I was thinking last night that the $HUI weakness is just a waiting-out of the US debt talks - certainly the miners would be the first to get dumped, and so you wouldn't want to hold any in this doubtful period.

But we'll see. I was reading an article yesterday somewhere, where analysts were agreeing that if there is no debt talk progress by end of trading day Wednesday, the market will dump all its shares and go off to live in a cave somewhere. Wednesday is the magic day because you'd have to close a trade that day for it to settle before Aug 2, and people really are that worried.

So let's watch the broad markets for a hint of disaster forming on Wednesday afternoon, eh? That'll give us our $HUI downmove, for sure. Then $HUI should explode back up when the American debt follies end.

I really would like to see the Tea Party cause a major market crash with their bull. They represent a fundamental disconnect - trying to be populist, paleocon, and pro-rich at the same time. Too bad dudes! Doesn't work! Now you're going to crater the US and world markets, so the only financial support you'll get from now on will be screaming survivalist loons. Goodbye!

Clifton Star - CTO?

I was looking through my watchlists and saw CFO come up as "unrecognized symbol". Then I went to Stockhouse and saw that they got a Cease Trade Order for late filing of financials.

Wow, eh? This was one of those stocks used at PDAC as a valuaton example... the analyst said they were worth $10. And this guy worked at some bank or something! Now the stock is locked and untradeable, at a very low valuation too... just like CMM was last year, except this was a stock that was supposed to be worth owning.

I guess this just proves, to paraphrase bill bissett, that "powerful analysts can fuck up too."

Monday, July 25, 2011

Rick Ackerman

I dunno. Someone I like to read, himself likes to read Rick Ackerman. I followed that blog for about a week or two, and decided he was just another of those mouthy American right-wingers.

Seems recently he was on Korelin, and took a swipe at Canadian "lefties".

I guess he's jealous that we have government-funded health care, free drugs for seniors, a banking system that never had to get bailed out, lower unemployment than the US, a better standard of living now than the US... and we even had a significant budget surplus and were paying down our debt under our previous "Liberal" party. (The present America-aping Fascist "Conservative" party has turned that into a $50B-$60B deficit....)

Or maybe he's jealous that we have the only stock market in the world where he can invest in junior miners? I mean... besides the pinks which are a fucking joke, and the Australian market which is basically at the level of the BVL.

Anyway... you wanna swipe at us Canadians for being "lefties"?

Right back atcha...

This is the only country where writing a song that counsels "terrorism" against the United States and its puppet governments in 80s Central America can get you a #1 hit single.

Of course, that was the 1980s. Nowadays, yeah, I guess it gets you renditioned.

Gold miners rally

Gold Miner ETFs Rally Back Near Lifetime Highs

From ETF Trends, again, one of the sites I really like to follow.

FIXED - Brent Cook talking about AMM

Morgan Poliquin, the President and CEO of Almaden Minerals (TSX: AMM, Amex: AAU) provides a thorough company update followed by analysis of the Ixtaca discovery from Exploration Insights' editor, Brent Cook.

From July 12th. Haven't listened yet, will later on tonight. Posted here for the Brent Cook fanboys out there, I know there's at least one.

AMM, btw, has been dropping recently - something like a $3.50 close today. Seems whenever it gets pumped somewhere new it goes up. Then it goes down.

UPDATE - fixed the link, sorry.

more on the toppy $HUI

A picture of toppy $HUI for you. To be fair, I suppose a chartie like GT would say "$HUI has a lot of resistance at 570-580 to burn through".

But this is a weak $HUI for a Monday, I think, with gold and silver both up. The juniors aren't inspiring me to buy any... just to sell.

Basic rule up to now has been, if we lose the EMA(8), we're in a short-term move downward. At that point I'd be wondering if it stops at the SMA(30) or SMA(80).

market comment

I'm going to say that $HUI looks toppy, and a drop down to 540 or so isn't out of the question over the next week.

One reason I want to say that is so that the market gods can punish me for my hubris by making $HUI shoot up into the stratosphere.

One reason I want to say what I said after that was to piss off the market gods by letting them know I'm one step ahead of them.

Oh well, the market will punish the most people at the most inopportune time. That's probably an old Livermore saying.

Funny to watch AUU get dumped like a fat girlfriend this morning. In this weekend's IKN, Otto said "hm, I'm not impressed, I'm thinking of selling in a few weeks", so the herd animals decided to rush for the exits ahead of him. Sorta like, y'know, DMM a few months back.

For what it's worth, going back thru Aura's history, I agree that they've had absolutely no problem rushing partial results to press when they looked good. And crappy results do tend to get lost on a shelf somewhere. And yes, it's been something like 5 weeks since they published their visual analysis of the Greyhound cores, so why is there no NR on the assays yet?

At the same time, when a bunch of dummies dump at the open, it makes for pretty good trading. I already own more than enough AUU, but I still grabbed a few at something like 0.20 this morning.

Their results will probably suck, yeah. But I still stand by the fact that the geology looks right at Greyhound (not as if I know anything about geo), and they did indeed find a few >2000g/t Ag samples at surface if you recall. Whether they find that deposit this year is up in the air (it's really only their first year of holes, after all), and whether it's big enough to mine is probably about 2-3 years down the road. But there is probably a deposit there. Of some sort.