Saturday, July 16, 2011

Brent Cook on Korelin

Brent Cook is on Korelin Economics Report this weekend.

Anyway, he's on Segment 6. Peter Grandich is on Segment 1.

revenge!!!!

I find it very annoying, with all the work I do trying to provide real content, that the single most viewed post of all last week was my repost of that Ron Paul rambling-run-on-sentence-in-the-presence-of-Ben-Bernanke bullshit.

I find it even more annoying that it was probably moronic fucking Ron Paul fans who were watching it.

So I'm going to tag this here post with "Ron Paul" to draw in all the fucking retarded internet trolls - but instead I'm going to fill it up with videos of kitties cuddling teddy bears.

Do not tempt me, internet, or I shall wreak an even greater revenge next time.









Friday, July 15, 2011

More Friday videos for y'all

Just stumbled across Wendy McColm's sister Marian, who does the most hilarious movie reviews ever.

The Hangover 2?



Green Lantern?



Teeth?



Bad Teacher?



Monte Carlo?



Geez, someone give this girl a job reviewing movies on TV or something. This is hilarious.

uninspired friday videos post

Already did it once, but we'll do some more cos I can't be arsed to do anything else.

Here's some fun snippets of QI.
















And here's one for the ZeroHedge crowd:




And here's a famous flub that was left in:

All of Harry Potter re-enacted by cats in 1 minute.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Shefsky from Pele Mountain on BNN

Al Shefsky from Pele Mountain Resources was on BNN today, talking about rare earths.

Personally, me no touchie any company that doesn't show me a process chart demonstrating they can produce at 99.99% purity.

On the subject of analysts....

Analysts.... Are they clever or something?

I admit it takes a lot of effort to find a junior that's about to go into production, do the math to figure out the value underlying the stock price, determine what's a good buy, what'll perform well. And probably takes talent too, or at least a bit of book-learning and math skills. But certainly effort.

And hey, it's almost magic the way other analysts manage to pick winning explorecos - they don't even have a deposit, they're just boring holes in rock to see what comes up. How do those analysts manage to pick the explorecos that pop on good results?

Wow. that analyst is real smrt. You want to buy him a t-shirt like this:


So... how did your analyst do last year?

Here's a chart. To crush his soul.




For all the difficulty in making a call like "I think this particular gold miner should go up by 30% this year because cash flow NAV ore value per ton yadda yadda", you have to admit it would have been easier to just say "I think gold's going up." No?

Well, if you'd simply bought GLD, last year, you'd have made 28%.

If you'd bought the mature gold miners, GDX, you'd have made 32%. A bit of leverage there, I guess.

Buying the Canadian 2x gold miners ETF, HGU, would have only made you 31%.. but it's a 2x long, so obviously you aren't supposed to buy and hold it. But if you did, you'd still have made 31%. Weeird.

Simply buying and holding GDXJ, the junior miners, would have made you 54%.

Now, maybe you don't hang around the reputable analysts... maybe instead you're part of the Cult of Sprott. Okay, fine. The silverbugs damn well insisted silver was going up, right? That was their main thesis, right?

So why should you have bought a silver miner? Any silver miner? If you had been so strongly convinced silver was going up from there, you could have just bought SLV and made 80% last year. How's your silver miners portfolio compare widdat, cheese?

Or if you were really really certain silver was going up, you could have bought the 2x Canadian ETF HZU, and despite the evils of leveraged ETFs you could still have made 174%.

Do you know any analyst that beat GDXJ? Any silverbug whose 2010 numbers were better than SLV? Hm? And this is the predictable shit. No Peru no Fukushima no South Africa bullshit. Simplified thesis. Minimal risk. Is gold going up, yes, then buy it.

And how about you? If you're one of the people I've been running into every single day on Stockhouse, you've probably been very vocal about your certainty that gold and silver are going up. Okay, but is that so? How was your performance in calendar 2010? Would you have done better simply by buying GDXJ and/or SLV?

Now, this post isn't me ranting at analysts, just in case you thought it was. I do, honestly, appreciate them. But it seems kinda strange that if you just take the general case of the analyst's thesis - "gold's going up", "junior gold miners are going up", or "silver is going up hooray for Sprott hooray for ZeroHedge buy more silver rounds on the internet at a 40% premium woot woot" - and buy an ETF based on that, you're likely to perform almost as well as if you bought that fellow's particular stock recommendations.

More charty goodness! Because words is not enough!

Last Friday I posted a cute little 5-day chart showing you what, I thought, in a more doomey moment, was an ongoing stock market crash in Europe.

So, what's happened since?


Germany's a good economy, and it's still down 4% this week. Spain Italy and France are down 5%, and Nat Bank of Greece is an exploding orgasmic clusterfuck of utter doom.

So... that's bad, right? Certainly looks like an ongoing crash. Hm... let's check the S&P, Q and R2K:



Yeah... I'd say that's not a violent collapse, but it still doesn't look good. The higher betas are underperforming the S&P, so that's not good for me either, is it?



OK... copper's holding steady for some reason. But... silver's outperforming gold? Strange.... gold's up 3%, silver's up maybe 4.5%.

Well. At that point I decide to look up the miners. They're high-beta risk-on to no end at all. You'd think they'd be crapping out, eh? Even underperforming the metals? Like, y'know, back in the spring?


Funny... the golds are only slightly underperforming their metal.

At that point I shrug my shoulders and say "well, the PDAC curse wears off in July, so the miners should do well anyway, no matter what's going on in the rest of the world, so I guess I'll ignore the broad markets for a while and just hold my stupid little miners til they start to show signs of sucking. Til then I'm supposed to be making money."

3 stock charts with pretty colours added by a trained monkey running Gimp 2


Here's GOZ, finally looking like a stock you'd want to own instead of a big pile of dead money. It's broken upward quite aggressively, you can see, but it's done so a few times before in recent history and just kept running for a good 50% gain. That's why I put the 2nd-dev Bollingers in there - just to show how meaningless they are to this stock.

I don't see much point in the SMA(120) above, except that it was failed support back in March. The SMA(50) looks a lot more significant, but we busted through that as part of the upmove. Volume is miniscule.

RSI(30) and CCI(100) seem to be meaningful in the backtesting, and it doesn't look like either is close to a danger zone. Then again, GOZ is still in a long-term downward channel that's basically defined at one end by the big thrust in December... I'd be interested in seeing if it can break 95 cents. If it does, then really you've only got lateral resistance between you and blue sky, I guess.

I personally didn't bother getting back into this stock (formerly called "that Swedish sack of utter shit") til it broke through 80 this week. It was acting too much like dead money, and I prefer moving my money around trying to make a gain every day. But now I own a little bit - hard to assign much of my portfolio to this when 40% of my money is tied up in RIO - and am already showing a 10% gain, hooray for me. I see Otto already gloated on his blog - he's probably safe on this one. GOZ doesn't seem to like to pull back when it goes on a tear. Too bad he bought in at 73 cents in October 2010, then even averaged up later. Ouch!

Sometimes buy and hold sucks, eh? I'm not criticizing it - I missed out on a $40K win when Eike Batista bought VEN because I'd sold the day before to buy some cheap RIO during a short attack - but I certainly know I don't have the constitution for it. Always best to do what comes naturally, I think.

And in case the above makes me sound clever - no, it was probably luck.

But yeah, I'd probably buy more GOZ if I could find something else worth dumping. But about my only candidate for dumping right now is BTO. See how hard the choices are when you're at nearly 0 cash?



US Silver seems to tend to pull back a lot on upmoves, so I'd guess you shouldn't be be surprised if you get another chance at 60 cents or less - especially if the price of silver doesn't maintain its heady momentum. SMA(120) seems to regularly show off its importance. The RSI(10) looks overbought - and oopsie I didn't draw it in, but we seem to be at a pivot point right now, from March and April. 65 cents or so.

And again, volume is miniscule.

So... what would you do? Dump it? If you're a hardcore momo with a toddler's attention span, like me? Frankly, I only have a half position left anyway, so I dunno... I'll see what silver does overnight, and if it looks like it's dumping, or if USA looks weak tomorrow, I'll probably dump USA and try to buy it back at Otto's Pride (that is, 58 cents). There's a gap to fill at 62-63, anyway.


Sulliden's chart is a dog's breakfast. I have no clue what's caused it to swing so wildly back and fro. (Partially because I have no clue what this stock is, beyond its name and ticker and it has something to do with exploration in Peru or something.) And it's at the MA(25) right now, but that seems to act more like support... the SMA(50) seems to be more resistive. MACD is crossing, as if that means anything, and the CCI(35) is coming off a heavily oversold condition. Volume is miniscule.

I dunno... if you were more patient than me and had a stronger constitution, you could buy it and hope it hits the top of the channel, presently around $2.35 but sloping downward. If it loses lateral support at $1.60 you dump it and don't look back. How does that risk-return look to you?

Then again, it's Peru... want more Peru risk in your portfolio?

HUI and the SMA(30)



Just one little post to point out that I've found another parameter in the $HUI. It's apparently sticky at the SMA(30). No big deal for us, as we're way beyond it.

That might be a problem, because we're 40 points ahead of the SMA(30), and that seems to have been (over the past 6 months) where we've experienced pullbacks.

Not that I'm worried about that right now. SMA(80) and EMA(8) are probably as low as the $HUI should go, if this is indeed a strong uptrend.

Just remember:

  • it's Indian wedding season,
  • the Chinese have opened a PM exchange,
  • Chinese are investing in precious metals now as a hedge against inflation because their banking system pays them an artificially low interest rate and a nation of clever folks who save a lot of money should be expected to find a way around that,
  • it's the start of the traditional strong season for PMs,

and yet the silly anti-inflationistas in the US still think the precious metals market is all about them and their currency and their Ron Paul and the desire to overthrow paper money in favour of a barbarous relic that only the ultra-rich own, only in small amounts as a hedge against fat tail risk.

Sorry if you haven't noticed, guys, but the US became irrelevant a little while ago. The precious metals market is no longer about you.

Set and forget

Not saying anything today. No point. $HUI continues up but less crazily, silver's still up. It's wedding season in India and there's a new PM exchange in China. The miners are disregarding the portents of doom in Europe. So we'll let it play out.

You might want to look at SLV's olume if you want to be a hero and go double-long silver: the TSX ETF is HZU if you're interested. But I think this time, now that the PDAC curse is off, we might see overperformance by the miners unlike during the silver spike when silver lagged. Partly because we had silver skyrocket once before this year - people may think this time is confirmation of some silver bull theory.

To me it's China and India. I'm just going to let my stocks skyrocket. Until $HUI breaks below its 8-day EMA I don't care about touching anything.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Ron Paul versus Ben Bernanke - meaningless contest

Here. Not enough comedy posted today.



The real part you should listen to is not anything out of that bozo Paul's mouth (and boy does he ever take his damn time to get to the point) - but Bernanke's explanation of the value of gold.

"The reason people hold gold is as a protection against what we call 'tail risk' - really really bad outcomes."

Some Fry and Laurie

For the life of me I can't find that little snippet where Fry (or Laurie) is dressed up like a woman, being interviewed on the street, and says "I don't think David Icke goes far enough, do you?"

So here are some other Fry and Laurie sketches for you on this happy afternoon.







HUI too far too fast


Remember this post from just yesterday?

Here's the bad things about today's $HUI move.

a) CCI(50) at its highest in 6 months.
2) RSI(5) at its highest in more than 6 months.
iii) as of this moment $HUI is more than 30 points above its EMA(8), which has always been support in upward trends.

On the other hand, maybe this is all because silver has gone up over 5%?

COPX is up almost 4% too - but now it's at the point where the past 2 weeks have shown strong lateral resistance.

Pfft... I should just sit back and let all this happen.

I KNOW WHAT DID IT

I know what did it. I know what made the market go all silly. Ron Paul just announced last night that he's abandoning re-election to the Senate in order to concentrate fully on his Presidential bid.

So today all the little goldbugs are rushing out and buying every mining stock in existence in anticipation of the US's return to the gold standard - whereupon they'll all be rich, while anyone who possesses paper money will be rendered utterly destitute.

Because, y'know, you'd have to devalue the US dollar by more than 90% to fit the size of the US economy into the world's annual production of gold. Which is the bare minimum you'd need to do to put the US on a gold standard.

I like pointing that out to the "gold is the only real money" loons.

Anyway... SLV passing $37.60 is something to watch out for. Srsly. SLV's volume is already 30M today, and that's a volume which was last seen during April's rise towards $50.

Actually, that volume was last seen during the collapse from that rise. But... it's still a volume worth watching.

market comment - OK, this is just getting silly now.

This is just getting silly. Silver, the greed and risk-on metal, is up 5% over yesterday's close as I write this. $HUI's up something like 17 points. That horizontal resistance at 570 I was thinking would come someday in the future is almost here.

This is complete and utter bullshit. This is the market shooting its entire QE3 wad in one single day.

You mean to tell me that the European debt crisis is solved? Are Euro bond yields dropping to the point where 5 countries aren't going bankrupt anymore? The junk bond status for Ireland and Greece has been rescinded? The entire banking system isn't in danger of collapse, nobody's going to default all of a sudden, and there's not a massive counterparty risk with sovereign debt CDOs anymore?

This is complete and utter bullshit. This is the market shooting its entire QE3 wad in one single day.

I'm over 90% invested right now, I'm even being tempted to buy utter bullshit penny stocks to get in 100% and increase my leverage. This is utter bullshit. I already bought some BHV and COP, even. This is utter bullshit. People are even buying Aura Silver. This is utter bullshit. This is the market shooting its entire QE3 wad in one single day. I refuse to believe this any longer.

market comment

And I'd like to point out right now that the junior miners market is screaming "go all in use your margin account buy buy buy".

Feel free to use me as a contrary indicator. Then again, 2 days ago I was spreading the message of doom.

BCM rejects your reality and substitutes their own

Canada's Bear Creek files suit in Peru over mine

Note: I am not a lawyer or a Peruvian, nor do I play either on TV.

Y'know, on the one hand, if the Santa Ana deposit can simply be taken away from BCM, then I would strongly suggest that all miners in Peru should be revalued at a much lower multiple. After all, it means that property rights can be usurped at a moment's notice... and a mine is nothing other than property.

So if I were doing valuation calcs based on a DCF NPV, for example, on Rio Alto's La Arena, I would replace the old 5% discount factor with a 10% - to include a 5%/year threat of government confiscation - and guess what, now your mine is only worth 68% of what it was (assuming a 20 year mine life). So RIO is only worth 68% of what it was, same for the rest of your mining industry, and say goodbye to FDI because the miracle of compound discounting makes your country yield 32% less profit, at a higher initial risk.

On the other hand, from what Otto says, it's the reality on the ground, tuff shit BCM, you lose, period. I guess the Aymara down there are a lot like the Mohawks up here.

Now, when the Mohawk Confederacy starts a big war up here and screws things up, like at Douglas Creek Estates, our government steps in, yes it confiscates the property at the centre of the problem, but then it provides monetary compensation to the developer for the confiscation. Canada's government can take your shit away too, but they're more or less required to give you money as compensation. Of course even in Canada the government doesn't volunteer free money to you, you have to go to court; but the law takes care of you once you get there.

It'll be interesting to see, re: this court case, if Peru also believes in compensation for loss of property. Maybe BCM can get Peru to hand over the capex for Corani as a settlement, since that's essentially what they took away from BCM. In fact, maybe BCM shareholders should also seek standing in this suit, since taking away Santa Ana without compensation would mean extreme share dilution is necessary to move Corani forward, which means economic injury to shareholders.

(Feel free to forward this post to BCM's officers, if you like that idea. I'm not concerned cos I didn't buy BCM until after it puked to $4.)

If BCM gets nothing whatsoever for losing Santa Ana, though, that means Peru essentially doesn't even have a legal system that recognizes property rights - at least not to the point of requiring compensation for loss of property. Hoo baby, now that will make their market tank.

So anyway, I haven't checked Otto's blog to see if he's posted anything, nor checked my email. (I saw silver and gold were up strongly this morning so I don't care so much about the particulars of the market.) I'll be happy to read his opinion, since obviously he lives right there. But I'm just interested, from a property rights angle, to see how this plays out. Because this affects things like the discount factor you use for a DCF calc, and I want to know if I should knock my RIO target down from $3.50 to $2.39.

And because DCF NPV calcs are the lifeblood of real analysts (while rogue Peruvian bloggers simply use cash flow multiples), I'm sure the real analysts out there will be watching this case's progress as well.

Note, btw - I understand that Humala didn't confiscate Santa Ana. Garcia did. Because Humala wasn't the prez. Garcia was. Humala has a chance to win over the entire mining & investment class in Peru with one stroke of the pen by offering a monetary fix to the Santa Ana problem. So this is also going to be a test of how cunning (or stupid) Humala is. He's been given a slam-dunk opportunity to get the rich on his side. I'm suspecting, mildly, that coming from the military he's not a total moron, at least from the standpoint of thinking strategically; and Nadine seems the cunning type too.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

no more posts tonight!

No more posts tonight! Off to drink heavily and watch David Icke videos....

$HUI, now with more colours and meaningless technical indicators!


So $HUI bounced off the SMA(80) today, which I figure looks more important than the SMA(200).

In fact, I did a bit of fiddling and saw that the June low was a bounce off the SMA(400). You'd have to think if the $HUI had lost the SMA(400) that would only mean the end of a Jim Rogers commodity supercycle, no? I mean, shit! How do the goldbugs and pennycrap promoters justify bragging about the outlook for gold miners when they're only fifty points above the SMA(400)?

Back to the chart, I used CCI with a period of 50, since that's the number that seems to give you the warning signals of recent highs and lows. Though, then again, this is only back-testing, and back-testing never works in the future. (That's why the SMA(200) no longer works, for example - the mass behaviour that is producing these charts seems to change over time, like the evolution of language or something). Anyway, CCI(50) looks okay, I guess, no? For now anyway?

The straight red line I drew is broken now, so the green line is the important one, I guess.

Honestly, I'm just makin' this shit up.

Will we watch the $HUI bust through the SMA(80) tomorrow? Well, that would be nice, I guess. Then what? Blue sky after that? I guess not, so then maybe we go look for some other technical indicator that looks meaningful above 545. Or the horizontal resistance at 570? Hey, maybe that works.

I'm awfully sorry btw but I can't take Fibonaccis seriously. Yes I know, flower petals, growth of snails, yadda yadda. If you want to explain how Fibonaccis have any actual meaning to market charts, beyond the odd accidental occurrence now and then, through reference to topics like complex systems and emergence, go ahead; but I warn you that I've read Francis Heylighen and studied complexity theory, and you haven't.

Oh, speaking of Fibonaccis... they released one album, titled Civilization and its Discotheques. Not very good at all, but a witty title to be sure.

M&A activity picking up, says the Toronto Grope & Flail

Here's a G&M ROB article on the start of merger season, including chatter about PGM where Stillwater asserts they had to buy PGM cos they just knew other companies were interested in that crappy deposit 50 miles from nowhere.

I guess now that it's merger season, all those pennycrappers which spent the last 6 months dropping 50% should start going back up?

Hat-tip to Republic of Mining, who also had this very good article, er, book excerpt: Along the Blacktop of Riches: The Abitibi-Greenstone Belt – by Charlie Angus (1999).

Apologies for earlier portents of doom

I just heard the European debt crisis being mentioned on the pre-news talk show of my local TV station, which is a crappy rinky-dink station whose programming is oriented entirely towards retired steelworkers and their families. You can't get more "mass man" than them.

So I guess this, combined with today's action, means that yesterday's posts portending doom were completely unwarranted, and so I apologize. Kinda sad, really... I'm so much of a peasant that I'm only one step ahead of a local TV station when it comes to economics analysis.

But seriously....

Ritholtz noted that yesterday was a 90% down day (confirmed with today's morning notes from Otto), so we should have expected a rebound.

Plus, he's got an article today - Market focusing on 1 sentence - that is a good read. Basically, today the market heard the first official, though completely offhanded and only haltingly serious, reference to QE3, and decided to ignore the rest of the Fed paper in favour of making preparations for more free candy.

I figure in another day or two people will clue in that a) the debt contagion in Europe hasn't disappeared, 2) the US doesn't have the money for QE3 or anything else taking place after July, iii) there's still them stories floating around about China's untenable fiscal situation. Though as for numero troi, I guess it's good to note that China does have a command economy and totalitarian government, so they have many extra tools in their arsenal.

Anyway, who knows? I'm still thinking a market drop is around the corner. What causes it? I'm thinking the European situation deteriorates; the US debt "talks" won't cause a problem. Ultimately Obama caves.

Speaking of which, didja read that Bruce Bartlett interview yet? Despite him being a Reaganite, I found I agreed with him on a lot: the Tea Partyists are idiots whose entire financial acumen was learned through nothing better than a home business, Obama's been an utter sissy when he should have been busting balls, and so on.

I have no idea what's happening in the broader markets. The portents of doom proved that. Anyone who actually was taking my opinions seriously should have learned his lesson by now. All I'm gonna do, to navigate this oncoming crap (or lack thereof) is:

a) watch gold (fear), silver (greed), and the $HUI (actual businesses who sell the metal);
2) not sell particular gold miners until their charts turn down, if in fact they do so;
iii) stay mobile and happy to take short-term profits, and ready to execute "scorched earth strategy" (i.e. triple-short the known universe) at a moment's notice.

$HUI is breaking through the SMA(200)

$HUI is breaking through the SMA(200)....

But that doesn't mean anything because the SMA(200) hasn't meant anything for months. The SMA(80) is important and we're still a few points below.

Just, y'know, trying to pre-empt other bloggers' posts on the topic....

Because Otto's got only enough indignation for Latin America

Papuan strike halts world's biggest gold mine‎ - AP

Oh, they also mine a lot of copper there. And now they're on strike. Hooray for us.

Some interesting excerpts:

"After years of toiling at Freeport-McMoRan's gold and copper mine in easternmost Papua province, many still get just $1.80 an hour. Last week, a strike of the mine's 10,000 employees brought operations to a standstill.
"'That's a 10th what the company pays workers in other countries!' Windesi said after a quick Internet search. 'And this is their biggest profit-maker. Their production costs are the lowest. How does that make sense?'"....

"...Earlier this decade, Freeport admitted it was paying the Indonesian military and police to handle security operations at Grasberg — a source of of ongoing controversy as the rugged Papua region is home to a decades-long low-level guerrilla war that has left more than 100,000 people dead, many at the hands of Indonesia's security forces.
"Because foreign journalists and human rights workers are barred from entering the province, allegations of abuse are almost impossible to confirm. But video clips of soldiers laughing as they torture suspected separatists, burning their genitals, have in recent months found their way to YouTube.
"Months after Gen. Suharto seized power in a 1965 coup, Jim Moffett, Freeport's chairman, reached out to the dictator, forming what was to become a close friendship and eventually winning the right to explore for gold and copper....
"The Grasberg mine helped bolster Suharto's corrupt and often bloody regime until his 1998 ouster and, even today, remains one of the country's biggest sources of income, helping shield it from outside criticism.....
"Locals complain, however, they have seen little benefit, pointing to environmental damage caused by mine tailings pumped into the Aghawagon River and its tributaries."

just to moderate my message of doom....

I'm still scared, still interested in cashing up.

However, this is always a good period for mining stocks. Bar doom, of course.

I'm going to be selective with my portfolio trimming, and try to keep those stocks that I think should only go up from here.

Example: why should BCM or RIO drop from this level? If they did, what would you do - buy or sell? I'd buy more RIO at $1.80 in a heartbeat, so I'm keeping.

Anyway... just a message that I'm not going to go to all-cash just because I'm spooked. Because there are good stocks in my portfolio. Whereas if I owned stocks like AR, KGN, MFN or the such-like, that aren't beaten-down to their lowest possible price, way below fair value, I'd probably dump at least half to take profits right now. If they began to show weakness, that is!

All up to you. I'm down about 30% on the year so feel free to discard my opinion as the ramblings of a loser.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Bloomberg First Word: "Italy's a game changer"

Here's Bloomberg's "First Word" podcast, if you want to try it out. Subscribe on smartphone or whatever.

Today, "Peter Rosenstreich, chief foreign-exchange analyst at Swissquote Bank SA in Geneva, says 'there is no emergency facility large enough' to bail out Italy in the event that becomes needed."

Coincidentally he notes all the US crap about the debt ceiling is just noise. Because they've upped the debt ceiling loads of times in the past few years, so they won't stop now. So yet another smart person agrees with me.

BNN: Tim Gitzel from Cameco

Tim Gitzel was on BNN last week talking about Cameco. Interesting locations for him, his feelings on buyout and ownership, and so on.

Here's part one, and here's part two.

Continuing the trend of tossing charts at you with no useful commentary....


From top to bottom: EWG is Germany, EWQ is France, EWP is Spain believe it or not, EWI is Italy, and NBG is the ADR or something for the National Bank of Greece because the last time anyone proposed an actual ETF for the country they woke up the next morning bagging groceries at the Piggly Wiggly.

Though, funny enough, in Germany there is a Greece ETF. It's about time the Germans quit trying to be so polite and accommodating to everyone, don't you think?

Anyway... Italy ETF down 12% in 5 days, Spain ETF down 10%. I'd, um... call that an ongoing crash... wouldn't you?

In fact, I'll leave it to the Newsmonster...

In my best Francis Dollarhyde voice....



(In my best Frances Dollarhyde voice...) Platinum. Going up. Do you see?





(In my best Frances Dollarhyde voice...) Agribusiness. Going down. Do you see?





(In my best Frances Dollarhyde voice...) China small cap. Going down. Do you see?

(This is my way of pretentiously suggesting there's something smelly in the state of China right now....)

oh and by the way - a disclaimer

I am not a registered securities dealer, nor do I play one on TV.

Nothing posted on this blog should be construed as investment advice, an inducement to buy or sell securities, or anything other than the disjointed hallucinatory ramblings of a sociopathic madman.

With that in mind, nothing that you read anywhere else should be construed as anything other than the disjointed hallucinatory ramblings of a sociopathic madman either.

I mean come on, would you want to be introduced to strangers as a blogger?!? That's how sick the people are who post on the internet.

Steel, coal, nickel - does this look good to you?




Steel, nickel, and coal. All looked bad today, all are below longer-term moving averages, all have fallen down below their short-term EMAs, with gaps.

Now they're not printing lower lows right now; but I wouldn't buy any of them til they print higher highs. Any higher high. I'm an easy lay, it won't take much. But right now I wouldn't hook up with any of them.

Funny thing is, platinum (the catalytic converter metal) doesn't look like this. And copper (the power grid metal) doesn't either. Copper looks good, and Pt looks so-so. (Of course, massive snowfalls in the Andes, and now a general strike in Chile, aren't going to exactly suppress the short-term copper price, are they?)

Anyone interested in divining the future? What do nickel, steel and coal have in common, that platinum doesn't? Are we getting a warning of something here? What exactly am I looking at?

Smell of fear season?

Funny thing.... PGM's drifted down to $2.60. Since the buyout is a shares/cash combo, are people scared that palladium/platinum is about to go south?

There's a lot of fear all of a sudden about Euro bonds and the associated CDOs, contagion, bank collapses, yadda yadda. Are people scared that there's going to be a Euro bonds & banks collapse?

Copper miners are down 4%. That doesn't indicate happiness about the economy. Fear of a rotten China, maybe?

Gary Tanashian just sent out a positive, happy newsletter this weekend. I wouldn't want to offend him by calling him a contrary indicator, but sheesh, JNK:LQD has sunk again all of a sudden; does this portend something bad? Is it "not off to the races after all" now?

I dunno dudes. I'm cashing up. Had a few other profits to take. I bought some more BTO on the sink to $3.19. I sold some SWD this morning for $1.75, probably to Otto subscribers who had just sold off their PGM and decided to plow their money into Sunward. I also dumped half my GPM into the bid for a bit of a profit - no reason for me to have the large position that I did, I was just too greedy.

I'm seeing deals right now, and might buy back some FVI or more SWD or some more AUU at a cheap price... just not yet. I'm suspecting fear is infecting the market. With my big 5-figure win in PGM this morning, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines for a few days as things solidify.

It's copper season!

PGM just got bought out at $3 approx. We don't care exactly how much, because whatever the price is, it's a big win.

I did actually have some PGM left in my account, despite what I'd said earlier about dumping it. So, fine, it's all sold as of 9:35, and I've made a month's worth of money in one deal. Hooray. Diggin' my way out of that hole!

I guess I can feel somewhat vindicated, in that I had said copper miners were going to go up, and we should all own some.

So who's next on the buyout sweepstakes? After all, PGM got bought by a platinum/palladium miner. There should be more buyouts. I'm thinking DNT is next, since they've already bounced back up. I think I'll put a wad of my profits into that.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

debt limit... did you know?

From Wikipedia:

The Obama Administration also made four significant accounting changes to more accurately report the total spending by the Federal government. The four changes were: 1) accounting for the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (”overseas military contingencies”) in the budget rather than through the use of supplemental appropriations; 2) assuming the Alternative Minimum Tax will be indexed for inflation; 3) accounting for the full costs of Medicare reimbursements; and 4) anticipating the inevitable expenditures for natural disaster relief. According to administration officials, these changes will make the debt over ten years look $2.7 trillion larger than it would otherwise appear.

I've seen conservatives up here in Canada who also freak out about deficits - right after running up tremendous ones, of course. This is a red herring. The Rethuglicans were all too happy to extend the debt limit several times for Bush Junior. They just don't want to do it for Obama unless it involves raping the poor through destruction of social benefits.

(BTW, watch out if you take all social benefits away from the poor. If the State's not giving them anything, they're eventually going to start wondering why they should support the State. Then, history will simply repeat itself.)

Partisan politics always has absolutely nothing to do with the real economy and the real markets. If you get fixated on partisan propaganda, the way the loons at ZeroHedge always do, then you're taking your eye off the ball. You'll never see what's really happening, because what really is happening is always a priori to any social construct.

Put in the language of a conspiracy theorist, "they" want you to take your eye off the ball. Now are you going to let them do this?