Saturday, June 25, 2011

The Onion

I'm spending the weekend at Youtube, watching all The Onion episodes back to back.

This is just too hilarious....

Friday, June 24, 2011

Obama's new plan: sell the US gold

This just in:

US To Trade Gold Reserves For Cash



(Shh, it's only a joke.)

(Let's forward it to Ron Paul anyway so we can watch him shit himself to death.)

(Seriously, I think it would be funny.)

well, there goes silver.

I've got a last of $34.33 on silver.

Sucks, eh?

Friday video cavalcade

I was so completely in love with Tatu's first album. I know they've come out with stuff since, but it doesn't hit me as strongly as their first album did.

Yeah, sure, part of it was the "Russian teenage lesbians" angle. Not just the teenage lesbian schtick (come on, I'm a guy for fuck's sake!), but also the fact that the "teen female pop star" angle was completely blown out of the water with Tatu. Just compare these girls to Britney Spears or Katy Perry or the Spice Girls. Western pop starts try to flirt with the line of acceptability; Tatu don't just cross the line, they stomp on it.

But part of it also was that Julia Volkova (apparently, from the videos) has such an amazing voice. She doesn't just sing the high notes, she can frickin' belt them. What a piercing voice. And, going by the little Russian that I learned in University, their lyrics are also very poetic. Then again, Russian's made for poetry.

And their videos can be really good, too. So, we'll forget about "All the Things She Said", which was kinda boring, and instead watch their other videos off the first album.

Here's "Nas Ne Dogonyat" ("Not Gonna Get Us"). Plot: two Russian teenage lesbians steal a transport truck and race through Siberia. I love the lyrics - much better in Russian.



And here's "Polchesa" ("Thirty Minutes"). Plot: Russian teenage lesbian is jealous that her girlfriend was making out with a guy, so she sets up some dynamite in the highschool bathroom and goes off to blow up a carousel.

It always fucking scares me how Russians have such easy access to high explosives, assault weapons, and so on. Combine that with their endemic alcoholism, HIV hepatitis and TB epidemics, and the unstoppable emigration of what's left of their tiny educated class, and it's no wonder the country's going to be completely depopulated by 2040.



Here's "Prostyye Dvizheniya" ("Simple Moves"). Plot: Russian teenage lesbian is waiting in a cafe for her friend, who seems to be late because her attention's somewhere else.



I showed this video to a friend and he loved the coda starting at 2:43 - especially the old film of Soviet-era "ballet of the Proletariat", or whatever, the guys with the shovels depicting the proletarian victory of... I dunno, ditch-diggers in the Altai?

And here's their brilliant cover of a Smiths song! Love the vocals! Much better than the original!



Here's a true story. Morrissey was asked if he'd heard Tatu's version of his song "How Soon Is Now?":

Word: Did you hear t.A.T.u.'s version of "How Soon Is Now?"

Morrissey: Yes, it was magnificent. Absolutely. Again, I don't know much about them.

Word: They are teenage Russian lesbians.

Morrissey: Well, aren't we all?

playing with charts

I'm going to play with charts like a total noob today and post some utterly baseless opinions.


Here's the copper miners ETF. The scene started to get good last year in late summer, so will it do it again? Maybe last year things just went really well because of the buyout craze that happened? Suddenly every pennyflipper thought they could find the next Antares, and so all the shares got bid up?

Anyway, RSI looks bottomy, MACD looks crossovery, and I'd be interested if COPX got beyond $18. If you're assuming this second-half run-up will be anywhere near as good as last year's, I guess patience would be totally okay, maybe even waiting til it broke the downward trendline around $19, before buying in. After all, you're not looking for a 10% gain, you'd be expecting a big 30% or so win, if you assume this year is going to be as good as last year.



Here's VNM, the Vietnam ETF. At one point last year GT thought this was a good play because Vietnamese are hard-working people and stuff.

Well, right now this chart looks frickin' brutal. Huge oversell in the end of May - probably some political thing, I'm not even going to bother looking it up. I'd avoid anywhere below $25.

The bottom panel of that chart shows its comparison with THD, the Thailand ETF, that I suggested to GT in response to his VNM call last year. Not that I'm any sort of genius or anything, but it looks like VNM has underperformed THD badly - gone down by about 60% compared to THD. My reasoning was that Thailand is a very advanced high-tech manufacturing economy (believe it or not, it is, I looked it up on Wikipedia), while Viet Nam has the scars of the US invasion and subsequent communism to deal with.

So here's the THD chart:


Obviously not that great recently either. There's a possible MACD crossover though, and RSI bottomed out a month ago. If you believe in the usefulness of any of that crap.

However, in the bottom panel you can see it compared to HAO, the Chinese small cap ETF, which I guess would be a better comparison to THD than FXI. THD's outperformed HAO over the past year.

Here's a closer view:

I'd be interested to see if THD breaks out of that downward channel. Then I'd like to watch the money flow, and see what happens when it approaches the SMA(50). It seemed to do some sort of neat thing back in the end of February there, which only would have made you about 15% in 3 months, so it's not that exciting but it might be interesting for one of those weirdos who actually believes in diversifying his investments instead of putting 50% of his entire life savings into Rio Alto Mining like a fucking lunatic.

Anyway. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. All I'm saying is, maybe you might want to watch COPX and THD in the next few months, and avoid VNM unless something amazing happens there.

Certainly I think any gloomy emotion about the broader world economy will be negative for COPX, and any fear of a China collapse or an EM/PIIGS debt contagion would be negative for THD.

Now this reminds me: I need to go edit my Google Finance portfolios - make a new one for developing market ETFs, and maybe another one for... I dunno, something else.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

busy this evening

No more posts for tonight. I leave you with this.

It's my opinion of David Rosenberg, care of Father Jack.

you just got headfaked



I took the hint.


BTW, my RIO at $1.99 looks pretty snazzy right now KTHXBYE.

Buttonwood

Rehab? No, no, no

The Asians all know the US will be instituting QE3.

And the UK is also going to be running another round of quantitative easing.

Just another thing you won't find out by reading ZeroHedge.

Denninger

There are a lot of things not to like about Karl Denninger, but at least he's really a libertarian, unlike most right-wingers in the US.

It's About Damn Time (Legalizing Marijuana)

One factual error he makes has to be cleaned up - drug dealers don't make thousands of dollars. Read Freakonomics and you'll see. The average street dealer could make more money if he went and got a job at McDonald's.

The reasons they deal drugs instead of working at jobs?


  • probably some racism there.
  • also it provides more social status to deal drugs than to be a run-of-the-mill loser.
  • frankly, anyone who thinks he can deal drugs full-time as a profession is an idiot who is unhireable.


Anyway, I'd stll rather see Denninger as President of the USA, instead of anyone else on the right wing who's available right now. At least he gives a crap about rights and stuff.

I especially like how he points out we never arrest bankers for their involvement in drug conspiracies. Then again, we also don't arrest bankers for committing fraud, bankrupting their country, or even for laundering the money of dictators and war criminals.

If you happen to know any old-school Marxists, ask them why their campaign platform no longer includes strangling the bankers with their own intestines. Backing away from their old principles is probably why nobody votes for the sissies anymore.

sigh

From Bloomberg:

Devastating Market Crash, End of World, Caused by China, ZeroHedge Was Right

Yeah, and actually, no.

Here's some quotes:

"The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of interbank funding availability, rose for a fourth day as an increase in bank reserve ratios, announced last week, took effect."

"'The cash squeeze worsened today because it’s the reserve ratio payment day,' said Guo Caomin, a Shanghai-based bond analyst at Industrial Bank Co. 'Due to the small amount of maturing bills we probably won’t see an obvious easing of the liquidity shortage this week.'"

Notice nobody's saying OMGWEALLGONNADIEWTF. Again, SHIBOR only spiked because of yet another increase in capital requirements.

But ZeroHedge, as usual, blows it up to "OMGLIQUIDITYCRISISWTF".

That's probably because ZH's job is to freak out the lunatic tinfoilhat fringe so bad that they leave the stock market and put all their money into silver rounds (probably purchased at a 20% premium from some fly-by-night that advertises in Guns & Ammo magazine).

Silly me, I can't resist the old broad

I've only just gone running back into the loving arms of Rio Alto.

$1.99 is stupid cheap. Things can get yet stupider, I guess, but what the heck? So I threw all my cash into RIO. I find it offensive the way the Bolsavaloreslemmings have been treating her and am making my stand today.

ok fine

I dumped the rest of my SWD, as it's not been doing anything. At a profit, so that's fine. I also got rid of my PGM position, at a wash, and yesterday I had already dumped FVI at $5.06.

Wanna have a bit of cash, as silver went down 4%, S&P went down to the March low again, HUI's painting a negating candle, and those fruitcakes at Zerohedge got into my head about an imminent China liquidity crisis.

I doubt there's any such thing - last time SHIBOR skyrocketed, ZeroHedge was all freaked out, and it turned out the SHIBOR only went up because of the end of the Chinese year, as banks quit lending and started hoarding cash to meet new stricter government requirements for capitalization or something. So ZeroHedge is probably wrong again. But I still wanted to get some cash to grab some deadly deals when the doom blows over.

Nothing wrong in raising cash just in case. Cash is a position. In fact, I've been making loads of money day-trading stocks, and almost no money with buy-and-hold. Trading requires cash, so always good to have some.

Still, I want to keep RIO and USA, as they should be slam-dunk wins unless a PM disaster occurs. BTO as well - it's not got a large upside according to Otto, but I'd say it's a pretty high-probability upside given their proven exploration skills.

We'll see. I probably bottom-ticked the market. I'm good at that, especially after reading ZeroHedge.

well!

That took all of 1 day, eh? So the $HUI's forced back into a channel. Blah blah international banking cartel, blah blah China liquidity crisis, blah blah black helicopters.

Hard part is determining whether to continue to hold my gold miners or go to cash. Both are supposed to do well, but you never know. We'll see today if silver loses that critical 5% that kills the commodity exchange speculators.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

whoever said cats were stupid....



Whoever said cats were stupid never met a libertarian.

$HUI again




Understand, I am only making this stuff up as I go along. I am not a professional trader, analyst, or even a professional anything. I'm the guy with the line of drool hanging out his mouth that you cross the street to avoid.

With that in mind, please understand that I see $HUI didn't even bother to stutter as it broke through what I'da thunk should have been lateral lines of resistance. If it also ignores that red trendline that I've drawn, then I'd also expect it to bust through the moving average cluster at the SMA(50). Then investors in mining companies will all get free candy for the rest of the year.

But I'm only making this stuff up as I go along.

I guess I should start a pay-only subscription newsletter, eh?

Oh, and congratulations to a very perceptive analyst. Argonaut Gold seems to really want to break through and hit your target now.

Note to the silly fellow trying to sell Aura at 21 cents: Dude! People are willing to pay 23 now! Back that ask up!

$HUI



Yellow dots are the MACD crossing (good) and the moving average cluster (bad). I'm more interested in that red line and what happens with that.

OMGWEALLGONNA- wait, what?

Gold and Silver Imports in India Surge 222% Amid Worry Over Currency Devaluation

market comment

US Silver still moves upwards on all buying and no selling, so it seems.

NCG is up. BTO is seeing high buying volume, which leads me to think they should consider flooding their mine in Nicaragua every year. GPM sees a huge bid at 15.5 cents. SWD also has a 100k share bid at 1.50 or so. RIO got dumped, badly, probably by some rich idiot in Lima: I'd like to buy more at this price, but I honestly can't bring myself to sell anything I have (everything's too strong) and there's no cash left.

$HUI is painting another strong candle, $USD is down, and silver's got a strong and narrow upward channel.

I hereby predict GT will (within a day, possibly, if things keep moving up so strongly) warn us of an impending doom-filled reversal in the $HUI at the SMA(50)/SMA(200) cluster at 540. Me, I think $HUI might hold for a couple days and be choppy at 540, but then probably move up.

Because it's not about Greece. It's never Greece.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

well, that took about 1 hour

Never pass up a chance to gloat.

Now all we need is for all those other picks to gain back the 50% they lost in the past few months, eh? :-)

another reason I think we're done selling off.

This one's similar to Otto's contrarian "dummy indicator".

A few days ago, GNH was down to 12 cents on a heavy dose of gloom and despair. Right now people are buying up to 15.5 cents. Oh, and Seafield's up 14%.

When the crap's moving up, I think it's because people with uncertain investment savvy have quit dumping into the bid and have started buying into the ask.

I'm still not thoroughly convinced we're out of the woods; bid-ask spreads are still too wide. Vena's is 2.5 cents, for example. That's 10% for a 25 cent stock.

But things are looking up.

some stocks

US Silver is seeing some decent buying, good slow and relentless price movement, so maybe this weekend we can get a subscriber-only gloat from Otto about how he was right all along and now the market has finally grown the wisdom to agree with him.

Rio Alto, however, is still weak volume-wise. Pretty sad. Oh well. I hold. Someone will buy it someday.

I put $5K into PGM. I don't like the Altar deposit, and though I'm only a noob, at some point I should still post my noobish reasons why I don't like it. Just for my own reference, anyway. But it's already down to .69 from $1.50 so it's been heavily de-risked, my thesis is the miner weakness is done, and as I posted recently I also think now's the time to own some copper. So fine. A small bit of money in PGM might pay off. Nothing else worth buying right now.

HUI looks good but


What's good about the $HUI:


  • 3 white candles in a row have (so far) cancelled out 2 red candles in a row. To me that looks bullish, with the little I know about Candle Magic.

  • MACD's about to go positive, if you believe in the importance of such a thing.

  • RSI's bouncing from support at 30, again if you believe in the importance of such a thing.

  • Oh, silver's also going up again. Strongly.


The bad:

  • SMA(50) is about to cross below SMA(200), and some people consider that a bad thing generally.

  • Rick Rule and Brent Cook just got interviewed in the Gold Report, and they are both bearish on miners. So if you wanna talk about "buying when the dummies are bailing", what do you do when it's the smart guys who are bailing?


Oh and by the way - despite the news about flooding at their mine in Nicaragua, BTO is still fairly strong - on 3 million volume, no less. I guess that must mean the smart guys are taking it as a buying opportunity?

Monday, June 20, 2011

Trader's Narrative

Another blog I read is Trader's Narrative. He's a classic sentiment contrarian.

Here's an example post from late last week:

Rydex Traders Throw In The Towel

Quote:

As you can see from the chart, the indicator is now almost back down to its lower extremes. Earlier this week the lowest it reached was 24. That is still a bit away from the lows it reached last summer but it is enough to warrant lightening any short positions.

Other measures of Rydex trading activity show even more positive bias. For example, if we look at the various Rydex sector mutual funds, we see that less than 10% of them have current assets higher than their 50 day moving average. This means that Rydex traders are exiting almost all sectors en masse. Historically when we’ve seen this level of reluctance to hold Rydex sector funds, a major low wasn’t too far away.

Another measure of Rydex activity focuses on the flow of funds into bullish mutual funds, both leveraged and non-leveraged funds. The pattern in this indicator is also bullish because Rydex traders are seriously paring their long exposure to equities.

By itself this or any other indicator is not to be trusted. But taken in concert with the other signs that we’ve seeing, including the
option trading activity, this important contrarian indicator based on Rydex trading activity suggests that the market is about to find support at these levels.

So... what's this about Greece's imminent destruction of the stock market?

GT's making happy noises?

He's so inscrutable. But it seems right now that GT is making happy noises... as if we're at a bottom and starting an upward trend.

To me, the "MACD bullish divergence" just means downward momentum has decreased; it's a momentum indicator, after all. But, the downward resistance trendline is fanning out, after all, and GT's been pretty good at picking bottoms in the past. Not always, but often enough.

Heh heh. Picking bottoms. Heh heh.

Anyway, read it for yourself:

Bullish Divergence on GDX 60 min. chart

Ritholtz vs fantasy

Once again, I woke up this morning to more news and podcasts portending doom and gloom about Greece. Apparently some tiny corrupt banana republic with a basket-case economy all of a sudden has the ability to destroy the markets worldwide... just like last summer.

Thankfully I was inoculated last night with this little article by Barry Ritholtz:

Apprenticed Investor: Lose the News

Sunday, June 19, 2011

chartiness

Okay, someone with a newsletter played technical analyst for a few pages in this weekend's issue, and showed off a chart of copper miner prices. It showed that last year the copper plays all started to dive in mid-April. Just like they did this year.

But then by the end of June, last year, all these copper miners started to go up again.

Go look at the chart for COPX on the NYSE. It's the global copper miners ETF. It handed out a 100% gain last year from July to Christmas.

How'd you do from July to Christmas last year?

In fact, COPX's chart looks even better than SIL, GLDX or GDXJ. (Try to look at them in Google Finance so that you can pan in and out on the period to help visualize the returns from a trailing perspective.) There's certainly no PDAC curse in copper miners, by the way!

Hm. So miners of an industrial metal have looked better than "real money" metal miners since last year, eh?

Of course, last year was the Jackson Hole speech. Ha! Maybe that's why the miners went up last fall, eh?

But if you chart COPX performance versus SIL and GDXJ since Jackson Hole, you see some interesting things. #1, gold juniors actually underperformed horribly. #2, silver miners went up and down like a yo-yo. But copper miners moved much more sedately. Interesting.


In fact, look at that chart and tell me that the guy who buys gold miners isn't a loser!

I'd be very tempted to buy some COPX right about now. In fact, I'd like to assign a certain amount of money to "broad" miner ETFs, instead of individual companies - especially when there are no good deals evident in individual miners.

Problem is, as a Canadian, it complicates my taxes all to hell when I buy US ETFs in an unsheltered account. So I have to keep them in my RRSP. But I also like doing my day-trading in my RRSP, since then I don't have to do all the hard work in Excel at the end of the year to calculate my capital gains.

Ah well. I'm certainly not going to be paying capital gains tax this year unless the market drastically changes. So, I'm going to add COPX to my watchlist, and see if I can get some in my RRSP by the end of this month. Switch over to doing the trading in my unsheltered account.

Now I gotta figure out where I can get the cash freed up from.

What Otto's on about today

"When the most reactionary and dumb market commentators decide to dump stocks wholesale and look for a posteriori excuses (they call them ‘reasons’) to do so, we’re close to a bottom. So I was heartened by news Friday afternoon as seen on the blog."

Hahaha! Pleased to be of service!

Actually, my own contrary indicator was the CNBC "a great depression cometh" panel discussion.

Give me a 500 point 1-day collapse in the S&P 500 and then I'll start getting scared.

Maybe I'm just frosty because I already got my ass handed to me in January with the post-Xmas mining stocks hangover, the traditional March post-PDAC collapse, and then Fukushima. Frankly, dude, nothing that the market has in store for me compares to what I already experienced with junior miners, unless we're going back to the age of Fortuna Silver at 50 cents, which I really truly doubt.

Um, and by the way... Westie could just be right and all his 28 stock picks really do suck. Just sayin'.

I Know What the Market Did Last Summer

By the way, dunno if I've posted this before, but I do find Gary Tanashian's basic analytical premise re: inflation to be incredibly useful right now. And that's why I post all the stuff I do about portents of doom in the mass media. GT's idea is that you need the market to periodically "fall into deflation" (that is, GO DOWN) to "give Bernanke the power to print money" (that is, for the sissies to clamour that the market is only supposed to have one direction, and they're too stupid to be able to make money in a down market so they demand the Fed and US Gov't to step in).

As you can see, I interpret it slightly differently from GT. My background is post-structuralist philosophy and (more recently) a bit of sociology, memetics, narrative theory, and cybernetics. So I interpret the market as being the result of the emotional over-reactions of primates - who, using language, construct a psychological narrative (thus, "My Own Market Narrative") to impose a grammatical and semantic structure onto a pre-linguistic, un-structured world of "things that just happen, before and outside of language".

GT, on the other hand, doesn't. He's got his own worldview that he builds his theoretical models out of. But, at least, he's still sociological in some of his thinking, so I can use him for something.

Now, when you're seeing portents of doom from outliers like John Hussman "Ph.D.", who couldn't even turn a profit in 2010, you can simply ignore them. But when Rosenberg and Roubini are showing up on TV, and when CNBC has an entirely serious panel discussion on whether "a Great Depression is right around the corner", that's an indication that the grand narrative is turning to "OMGWEALLGONNADIE".

And so yeah, it is good to turn dispassionately to the charts to see if we really are all gonna die. Because we've been all gonna die before. Last summer, in fact.

I mean, you can also use common sense when reading doom bullshit like we've seen in the media just this week:
  • Is the default on Greek debt going to happen? No. Nobody will ever allow the Greek proletariat to be victorious over the fascist-capitalist banking oligarchy. Only the Icelanders are strong enough to win a victory like that.
  • Would a default on Greek debt cause a "Lehman moment"? Puh-leeze. If it does damage a few bank balance sheets, the EU will just recapitalize them with German taxpayer money. The point is, the bankers have won, this is their world, and you're not going to see a reverse of the massive de-risking that governments imposed on the financial system now.
  • What about China? Ooh, it's about to collapse! Yeah, I doubt it. China has structural inefficiencies (New Ordos is an example), but they're a command economy so they don't care. I'm sure China will collapse in a few years, but right now? No.
  • But the Chinese ETFs have horrible charts! Yeah, true. The FXI (ETF for China's Dow Industrials, sorta) looks stalled, but the smaller-cap space (CQQQ, HAO, etc) looks putrid. Well, I suspect that's because so many small-cap Chinese companies are now being proven to be shells with no real assets and nothing supporting their stratospheric share prices. That's probably reduced interest in owning Chinese small-caps, and so the small-cap ETFs look bad. Yawn. No vast market collapse there.
And BY THE WAY: these stories were all in the media last summer too.

But, leaving aside common sense, let's see if this newbie sees something different in the charts from what GT sees? I'll even be the clever newsletter type and create my own catchphrase for it.

Here's the catchphrase:

I Know What the Market Did Last Summer

Here's Apple.


OMGWEALLG- wait, what? Apple rolled over last summer too? Yeah, RSI's a bit worse and so is MACD, but that's because those are momentum indicators, and this year we have more moderate momentum than we did last year when we were coming out of an epic market bottom.

And by the way, if you'd ever bothered to go and read Barry Ritholtz's stellar and brilliant blog you'd know that Apple is justified in being so strong, because one of their main competitors (Research in Motion) has screwed the pooch and is now probably spiralling towards bankruptcy.

Just my opinion.

So read Barry Ritholtz EVERY DAY.

Now here's the Q:


Essentially, this is a repeat chart, since the Q is so overweight with Apple. But still, the fact remains that We Know What The Market Did Last Summer.

How about the Dow?

Wow. A head and shoulders formation, as well as a drop below the 10-week AND 40-week SMAs. Oh wait - we haven't played that out yet. That was What Happened Last Summer. And I seem to remember that we didn't get assraped to death.

And so on. I've already spent over an hour writing this. I quit. You get the idea, I'm sure. I'm happy to accept a prediction of doom the minute the S&P pukes by 500 points. Until then, this to me is still just a summer correction.

And thankfully, I own a basket of good stocks that (for the time being) I feel very happy holding. I'm even happy still holding AUU, given the small amount of geology I'm learning. This is way better than the Feb correction, when I was caught holding a whole pile of (as it turns out) horribly overvalued explorecos (hat tip to Brent Cook, who's probably feeling the exploreco pain himself).

I'm just a newbie, but to the extent that I have opinions, this blog is supposed to be all about them.