Saturday, May 28, 2011
U.S. Silver Corporation, owner and operator of the Coeur and Galena Mines and Mills near Wallace, Idaho, in the state’s “Silver Valley,” has agreed to pay $87,000 in penalties to settle alleged violations of the federal Clean Water Act, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has announced.
The agreement, detailed in a consent agreement and final order between the EPA and U.S. Silver, resolves the company’s alleged National Pollution Discharge Elimination System permit violations and unpermitted discharges at the mines and mills, which the EPA says occurred from 2008 to 2010.
EPA officials familiar with the case confirm that U.S. Silver’s alleged violations included unpermitted discharges of mine tailings and exceeding the national discharge permit’s effluent limits for copper, lead, and mercury multiple times.
In addition to paying the $87,000 penalty, U.S. Silver recently made structural improvements to its tailings pipelines to reduce the risk of future spills, and encouraged employees to become more vigilant in preventing and reporting accidental spills.
The agency says that discharge violations in the Silver Valley are especially troubling.
“The South Fork Coeur d’Alene River and its tributary streams are struggling to recover from a century of mine waste discharge,” said Edward Kowalski, director of the EPA’s Office of Compliance and Enforcement in Seattle, “Companies need to ensure that they are not only meeting their permit obligations, but also investing in their plant and equipment to protect Idaho’s rivers and streams for future generations.”
The agency is currently carrying out an enforcement initiative aimed at reducing pollution from mining and mineral processing operations. The agency says that these facilities generate more toxic and hazardous waste than any other industrial sector, and that this waste poses a serious risk to public health and the environment. The EPA has recently targeted other mines in Idaho.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Check the record, check the record, check the guy's track record. Check the record! Check the guy's track record!
If you're actually a Fall fan, you'll prefer the version they perform on Tony Wilson's TV show, because it has many more shots of Brix and Marcia.
And if you're really a fan, track down the documentary "The Wonderful and Frightening World of Mark E. Smith".
- Their Q1, release hopefully imminent, should show increased net revenue
- Silver, dumass
Thus, USA should be dumped if their Q1 doesn't show increased net revenue; or also, if USA fails to respond to an increase in the price of silver (which frankly it hasn't been doing if you look at the chart).
I also got dumped a quarter-block of ARR!! at 6 cents. Reason for owning it is, I sold my last quarter-block of ARR at something like 9 cents - and a $2500 profit on an afterthought-level investment is always cool.
Though I still have no frickin' clue where ARR is on the map. I know it's not in Taviche. It's way the heck in another valley.
Still, ARR does have some cash now, and can do a bit of work this year. One happy news release and all the pennycrapper cowboys will bid it up. Even if I dumped it at 7 cents, that's $800 profit - again, on an afterthought-level investment.
So now I'm 100% in the market.
So now watch the whole thing tank.
I found something very very funny in one of them, and would like to post it here.
In a recent IKN, Otto quotes GT and then gives his own take. I don't want to be copying stuff out of pay newsletters, but I'm pretty sure this will be okay to reprint:
Today (due to the arch irritation of the block and to take my mind off things) I read [GT's newsletter] in the morning and after doing so asked and received permission from Gary to quote this little section, because it hit a nail on the head for my position re-today’s market as well as getting my juices flowing:
"Truth be told to you dear reader, I feel a little too exposed to the entire mess... Like any faulty human, I am not always overly confident as a trader. I am however, confident in myself as a macro economic market manager and when I perceive potential discrepancy between the macro view and current portfolio positioning, I get uncomfortable.”
I really don’t know how Gary does his thing with charts, I don’t always agree with his calls (we’ve had public blog-based squabbles to prove it) but what I can say is that more often than not and by his totally different technical analysis/chartwatching route, we often end up in the same place and saying similar things at similar times.
I'm not going to go back to the originals to frame them with more context, because as a market newbie reading those three paragraphs my response was "okay, GT feels fear. And Otto feels fear. Therefore maybe I should feel fear? But I do feel fear! And these professionals agree with me! Well! Fear it is, then!"
Now sure Otto also felt safe that he was invested in value positions, but he still said he felt "a little too exposed to the current bearish winds".
The reason I'm mentioning this is that this (as well as GT's letter referred to) was put out on May 15th. $HUI closed Friday around 515. Silver was $34.39.
I.e. it was pretty much the exact BOTTOM.
Moral of the story is: even newsletter writers are, as Nietzsche'd say, "human, all-too-human". And, well, contrarian analysis, when all the sellers have sold you're only left with buyers, today is never the apocalypse, yadda yadda.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
That's the reason to own it. (I only own a stock for a reason - when the reason is gone, or when it's no longer convincing, I'm out.)
At the same time, look at this chart:
Chart says to me that we're still in a downward-sloping channel. At the top of it, though, so a break above with some volume would indeed be a good sign. Above $1.60 is a blurry region of some lateral resistance, if I've learned anything from a year of reading GT.
Now, look at the chart again. I'm in at $1.30 and $1.34. Okay? Good spot?
Last year I'd be dumping all my shares at this point. Because the chart still does suck and I can get a profit. Free up the money and move on to a better choice. 10% a month every month makes me more money than sitting in a stock waiting for the next PEZ or VEN. I still believe in that.
But recently, so far, I've only lightened my SWD position: taken a slight profit and held the rest.
And the results that are imminent? Well, is it a coincidence that the two insiders who dumped their shares were both geologists? Company says "oh, they were trying to raise some capital to deploy in another of their ventures". Yeah, so? They've got drill results coming out at Titiribi, too. Now we retail unwashed might look at geos for fuck's sake dumping stock and just assume that this means the 2011 drill program is already giving them hints that it bites the donkey dick.
Anyway. Whatever. Perhaps I should look at this as an opportunity? After all, insider selling crapped the poop out of this stock. What a fantastic information asymmetry! Perhaps this insider dumping was the right time to buy!
After all, you look at the block model of the Titiribi resource that IKN showed us, and explain how likely it is that their resource really is shaped like a three-legged poodle.
Anyway... just trying to convince myself.
I'll probably dump the rest if it rolls over though.
BTW Otto, can you get in touch with Colin Andrew? Tell him it'd be nice if Juilland and Challis could maybe personally email us to give advance notice of when they're about to dump yet more stock. I'll post the notification on Stockhouse so we can get out before them and buy back cheaper. After all, that'd be the sporting thing to do, eh chaps? They've got the money, I'm just a fucking peon.
At the same time, someone posted on Stockhouse today that USA has til May 31 to post their Q1.
Now, I was under the impression USA always files later because they have a different year-end. If that's wrong and they do still file by May 31, let me know.
But, looking at the price of silver for Q1, it might perhaps be a good idea to own some USA when their Q1 comes out. I can still make money on crap stocks - my biggest win last year was Century!
Then again, someone else noted that "Because of the new IFRS accounting rules Canadian companies are being given an extra 30 days to report results this quarter."
Meh... if that means USA files later than next week, maybe there's no point in tying up my capital there. It would only be another $10K anyway - I'm not dumping my SWD and RIO to buy USA. Or my BTO. There's pretty much nothing I could dump right now. Except maybe FVI, which is also starting to look like dead money.
RIO up over 6% today. Probably won't see that again for a while.
HUI's in visual lateral resistance right now. Could easily drop back down to 525, but I don't expect more than that. So, in a way, it was probably dumb for me to put another $10k block into the market when I could get a better deal tomorrow or next week. Oh well. BTO's not a penny play, I have to remind myself.
AUU still looks positively brutal. I could puke my shares into the market to trip all the stops down to 2 cents, if I knew there were any stops to trip. Actually, I'd kinda like doing that. Anyone know if that's illegal? I mean, not for the Vampire Squid, but for me. Obviously the Vampire Squid can do whatever the fuck it wants.
Fridays are horribly boring market days. I have to keep reminding myself of that. I doubt I'll see much happen on Friday.
Then again, there's supposed to be results coming out, ain't there?
Where was this bidder last week? Oh yeah, I remember - there was insider selling, so retail started dumping, and so anyone who wanted to buy stayed away waiting for a bottom to get put in.
I dumped a few SWD to that $1.45 fellow to build up a bit of cash. I know it'll skyrocket, but I didn't need every single share I had - now I'm down to a 1.5-block position, which is better, and have 2 half-blocks ($20K is a block) to put elsewhere when opportunity knocks, such as when the $HUI looks weaker than today.
And after all, it's discipline - I bought extra SWD to average down, now with a good bid I can dump my overage to get back some cash and still have a low average cost of share.
But I'm still mostly in the market though - over 90% in, in fact. Plus I have a bid for another half of BTO at $2.24, just in case - haven't gotten filled yet, but I'd like to build that position because they are doing a lot of exploration, right?
I'm in no rush to grab BTO though, as it might still roll over a bit and give me a better chance at $3.20 or $3.10. (Pft - or $3, who knows?)
One of the people on the boards posted that he was impressed with HBET-29, which showed 122m of 23g/t silver.
I'm still a newbie, but I'm under the impression that 23g/t is only barely mineable: either you're going underground, in which case I'd assume your all-in tons-of-ore cash costs will be high, or you're mining open-pit in which case - because these seem to be nearly-vertical dikes - your strip ratio also makes 23g/t barely mineable.
So for me, I'm not impressed til I see more than 50g/t silver. I don't know about cash costs, but I'd assume they're similar to gold, in which case 0.5g/t Au over long intervals from surface is mineable open-pit, and short or deep intervals want something like 4g/t for underground. Multiply by the GSR and you get the numbers needed for silver? Sounds like a good ciggypack calc for me.
I guess I could go to Fortuna, ask them what their projected all-in cash costs are for San Jose, and use that as my baseline, or just look in Fortuna's mine plan to see what their cutoff grade is. Either of those would give me a better figure for interpreting AUU's West Taviche results. Maybe I'll look that up this weekend.
Anyway... 122m of 23g/t is borderline. But, the subintervals are okay. So this guy posted, and I replied:
Please visit the Corebox drill interval calculator.
That 122m section of 23g/t isn't anything special either. If you just take out the 22m-80m interval of 41g/t, the residual is under 7g/t. But the 39-51m interval of 89g/t is okay though - I suspect that's above cutoff grade for an underground silver mine.
I guess the important thing is they've now figured out the silver-bearing structure is subvertical, not vertical.
Anyway. For me, at this point in time, it's important to remember 3 things:
- West Taviche was crap holes this time around. But in the past (2009?), apparently they managed to put out 2 holes at 1000g/t and 1 hole at 4000g/t. Number 1, another hole like that would be good for a pop, and number 2, they can probably prove up a mineable resource once they quit shooting blind and start demonstrating they know exactly where the mineralization is.
- East Taviche has Higo Blanco, does it? FVI's going to drill the crap out of their side of that this year. Maybe AUU gets a sympathy pop when FVI starts releasing those holes.
- Greyhound is a huge zone of mineralization, and has put out some nice grades in grab samples. (AUU put out a rock (last year?) that was 5000g/t or something like that. Might have been cherrypicked, but statistically I'd say that couldn't be the last 5kg/t rock they'll find.) Now, Agnico Eagle also had a big gold zone up there that became Meadowbank; if you look it up, they only really got 2 decent pits out of it, and one borderline piece of crap (cos the dike is too narrow). Maybe AUU's will prove better? But even crap like Meadowbank still becomes a mine.
You get all that (well... 48% of the Mexico portion of it) for a $20M market cap company. Okay? $20M.
By comparison, GPM gets you a shell with no immediately-prospective assets for $30M.
SUR for $20M gets you a vague prospect that owns property near a small borderline-grade Uranium deposit (and remember, nowadays Uranium eats babies and worships Satan) in the middle of a pending communist dictatorship.
GNH for $20M gets you 1 or 2 bloody narrow low-grade veins that need major statistical massaging to even become a 43-101.
What do you want for $20M? Pft. At this point I'll take AUU. In fact I've been doing so as the price has collapsed. I dumped all sorts of stocks upon a large drawdown, but I'm comfie holding a large AUU position at a $15K paper loss.
BTO is pulling back. I might add some with my $10K that didn't go into silver; I'm okay nowadays with large positions in proper producers. I also re-read all 3 of the April analyses that Otto forwarded, and was especially happy with mention of all the exploration they're still going to do this year. It's definitely a stock that could move - forget your little upside, Otto, on first glance with all their exploration this quarter BTO looks like it could pop well over $1 from here. But right now its chart seems to me like it's going to trace out a cup's handle. Oh well... do I want to try to wait til $3.20 or $3.10? I'd like to have some cash in my pocket for now.
GUY is back to $8.75. Thing with GUY is, yes $8 is its apparent bottom; but somtimes it only advances to $9, other times it goes to $10-$11. If we see it go back to $8 on broad market weakness, I'll buy some back - probably with humongous profits, either from RIO, or SWD if they get their asses in gear.
That's an important thing - I can keep my money in RIO and take my profits after it's done advancing, but I still need to see what's my next move. Frankly I don't want it to be an exploreco - I've had enough of their crappy price movements this year.
I was also reading up last night on... who has the Altar deposit? Is that PGM? What scares me away from that is the $2B capex that's apparently required. Eesh.
I mean, the Comex. :-)
We'll see. Miners should still head up medium-term from here, but short-term I'm expecting a retest of the SMA(200) on the $HUI, I think. Maybe even a drop below, sort of a short-term shakeout.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Resplandor. They're a shoegaze band, and from Peru. Been around probably at least 8 years. I almost played a show with them... they were on tour in the US with Malory & Skywave, & I opened up one show, but Resplandor were taking that night off (probably because they couldn't get over the border, or were worried the US wouldn't let them back in afterwards).
Anyway, I never thought they were that great before, but it seems like their sound has gotten better over time. Plus now they also have a good budget for videos, wow.
I guess you're a little old for that scene anyway. What with your Blondie & Pink Floyd thang. Well, at least you haven't posted any Slade videos.
So here you go.
Or George Formby....
So as Otto noted, The Vampire Squid has called the inflation play back on. $130 oil in 12 months (so, let's say 2 months, per the reasoning in my previous post), copper and zinc strong next year, and so on.
And silver's moving up.
And today I got a little mailout from Bespoke, noting that today's action has included a rotation out of defensives, back into cyclicals.
Does this mean GT's little 30-yr yields chart isn't going to touch the lower trendline and we're going to go off into the hyperinflation we were looking for last month?
Some smart guy I'd read recently (probably from one of the Schwager books) said that when the market's not reacting to bad news, or starts ignoring bad news, it's going to go up. Silver's not reacting to the short-term USD uptrend, and it's not reacting to end QE2 (which is supposed to mean a liquidity suck).
BTW, for the record: I'm not an inflationist or a deflationist. I'm actually quite insulted that GT thinks in such a binary way. As far as I'm concerned, this is the 1970s all over again - at least for the USA. They're going to get stagflation. Too bad, tinfoil-hatters, no Mad Max costumes or piles of human skulls for you!
GT seems to suspect silver is going back down soon. Turd Ferguson is only calling for $40 silver by June... then a drift back down I guess, before a later advance up higher.
I'll call $50 silver by June.
SLV's been gapping up hard each day. You have a lot (but not all) of speculators who rushed out of silver, thinking the deflation play was coming on. I think now that silver's shown it's starting to move strongly up again (check out how it's got the same parabolic slope as the last move to $50), and oil's moving back up, everyone who was in silver a few weeks ago is going to come piling back in. And fucking fast. Especially the ones who missed most of the last rise.
That faster pile-in will make an even steeper slope, which will be alluring to positively everyone.
Who knows? Maybe this'll be like the old double-top in gold (1980 was it?). Big spike, then a big drop, followed by an even bigger and faster spike.
Just a theory. Probably wrong. But I suspect it.
Now, as I'm prone to fantasizing and magical thinking, and stress at work is probably making me swing into a manic mindset, I'll wait for opinions from anyone who reads this before making a move.
But thing is, I have $10K that I could put in BTO, GUY, GPM, ARR or AR, but that'll require waiting til a good entry point. Or I could just buy HZU (double long silver hedged CDN) and try to max out my silver profit. If silver moves up aggressively, I can get more profit from HZU than from any miner.
I am, of course, usually only the second-to-last fool; but in my "silver $50 by June" call I might be ahead of the other fools.
So, what you think?
Of course, if these moving averages actually meant anything, then you'd expect the $HUI to drop back down to the SMA(200) to test support in a while... maybe later this week?
GUY seems to be moving back down... I might be abe to get back in at $8.50, if not $8. Then again, maybe I want to play double-long silver HZU. But in any case, I have very little cash (just $10K that I made from selling small amounts of SWD, RIO and GPM), so maybe I should just sit tight and wait for opportunities. Or put more money into BTO.
Should also watch AR - it's failed its breakout to $6 a few times, but if $HUI is strengthening, it might try again to move ahead.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Dumped my GPM at .19. A 15% profit over a few days is sufficient for me, especially considering I was only betting a few thou on it to begin with - a token position. I'm hoping it dives back down, I'll reload at .165 or .17 again.
BTO still looks nice today. RIO very strong, hitting 2.19. $HUI is testing the SMA(200) again; it'll probably fall back tomorrow, I think.
Silver very strong, gold is okay, this despite the broad market being even.
Some dumbass dumped Aura at the bell. It actually doesn't look particularly weak... I was the one who painted the tape at 0.265 on Friday, so really the stock has traded up since the drill results - just not by much.
As far as I'm concerned, it's a $20M market cap stock. For that, you get:
- the possibility to sell some West Taviche to FVI once the ownership structure settles.
- the chance for a sympathy pop in AUU once FVI starts drilling their own Higo Blanco target, beside AUU's East Taviche;
- still the chance for a Meadowbank 2 at their Baker Lake property.
I'll sit down and look at the drill results in more detail and post my rookie comments later.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Canadian science at its best.
They say in the conclusion that the results of their modelling might also apply to the spread of idiotic political viewpoints.
Someone get Simon Pegg on the phone, that's a fantastic idea for a horror movie.
Let me know if any of it is untrue.
BTW... oh look, Graham Chapman in a dress. Looking drunk. Again.
Sadly, there's no new season of QI until the fall, so I'm stuck looking for another good TV series to download and watch.
I just came across Newswipe, which apparently has won some comedy awards. Now, just to clarify, I'm not one of those Brit-worshippers who watches nothing but British TV - frankly I think most of what they put out is complete crap. But they have put out some few bits of genius (I love QI, and it's all available on Pirate Bay), so I've been looking for more.
2 series that have won Brit comedy awards are Newswipe and Horrible Histories. I should go check them both out. Apparently, Newswipe put up a funny little video that got copied to YouTube, titled "How to Report the News". Here it is, below:
Fast forward past the first minute. This guy actually has a sense of humour. And he's got a bit of a nasty streak - which I wish he'd shown in his first year in office, when he had a supermajority in the house and senate.
(As some Canadian general once said: "The first rule of warfare is, hit them with a fist.")
Anyway, like I said, fast forward past the first minute, and watch Obama skewer Fox News, Trump, and so on and so on.
Here's a great article from Slate on the magical thinking of Rethuglicans, with a whole bunch of links therein to yet more articles on stupid Rethuglicans.
BTW, my own personal opinion is that the US empire is dead. In fact, I was saying this back in 2001-2 or so, and got into a lively argument with the "personal banker" I had at the time (otherwise a very intelligent guy - he quickly quit the bank and started his own business). He wanted me to assign so many percent of my money into US mutual funds, as every "personal banker" with a 4-week training course will always do. I told him the US was a dead empire, and I was putting my money into Europe. Well, at least until 2006 or so that decision made me a fair bit of money.
And the US empire is dead because it now rejects intellectualism and education. They're both still alive and well in Europe (though what passes for intellectualism in France doesn't count), and to some extent glorification of education is part of east Asian culture (not stereotyping - you had to pass a test on great literature to get a job in the Chinese bureaucracy, 1000 years ago).
I like to sometimes think that the 21st century isn't going to be China's, or India's; China has a massive demographic disaster waiting on the horizon, while India's always ultimately suffered from corruption and inertia. I actually suspected Latin America could be the center of the 21st century, with their massive amounts of natural resources providing the easy leg-up, assuming we're in a long-term secular commodity boom. But I don't know much about the culture and its view of education down there, and I'd think a culture of education must be a necessary element for that region to take the global lead in the 21st century.
Anyway. Point being, the Rethuglicans are idiots, and the US empire is doomed. But I was saying so almost 10 years ago.
There have [...] been a slew of broken watch pundits who have enjoyed an undeserved credibility following the crisis.
Who are these Doom & Gloomers? They include:
• Crisis rock stars;
• Goldbrickers who missed the equity rally;
• Thinly veiled partisans;
• Conspiracy theorists!
• Analysts trying to turn one good call into a new business model;
• One sided web sites that never see anything positive;
• Specialists in Recession Porn;
I don’t have to name names — you can do that if you want. I am compelled to point out that this crowd not only is enjoying undeserved credibility, they are NOT making their followers money. Listening to their advice, their readership missed the greatest market rally in 4 generations, but they piled into commodities in time for a major collapse, got frightened out of munis that have no credit issue or default threat, and have otherwise missed opportunities and lost capital.
By 10AM, the S&P and Q are down over 1%, painting a monthy lower low so far. Copper down over 3%, but that's still a higher low. USD popped up this morning.
Blah blah China slowdown, blah blah Euro debt concerns. Typical media reaching for answers crap. Real reason is, broad markets are going down from here. Yet the PMs look relatively strong so far today.
I guess the dinky retail-heavy mining stocks will get puked into the market tomorrow morning. The TSX-V players will be bummed that they didn't get a chance to sell today.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
It's not only Mark Twain, it's not only got Satan, it's also "very disturbing" according to the silly Americans who comment on the video.
Personally I remember the age when most children's programming was disturbing; that's called true art. As another example of this, watch below an episode from the fine Norwegian puppet program called "Pompel & Pilt".