Saturday, May 21, 2011

general

Again, I'm only a market newbie and use this blog simply to keep notes for myself.

Last year I batted a couple huge home runs on the market - GNH and CMM, two stocks I'd never recommend anyone own - plus a minor win on RVM, and (once I started following IKN) some steady penny-flipping income with VEN, RIO, PEZ and (my favourite last year because of the gains you could make from its stunningly regular periods of illiquidity) LCC. Made almost 100% last year despite NOT owning any of IKN's stocks during their big price pops or run-ups.

This year I'm down quite badly. Fukushima destroyed my uranium stocks, and I also got too deeply into too-large positions in minor explorecos. That's okay - you can't learn lessons without suffering pain. I suffered pain, and now I'm going to spend the rest of the year trying to claw back to break-even.

I post my ideas and thoughts here to make sure that I remember them from one day to the next. Almost as a coping mechanism for someone who has ADD. I've always had to make notes and lists to "keep my seven thoughts together", as my mom's mother used to say.

And BTW, I don't believe in most of psychology or psychiatry as currently practised. Read some Thomas Szasz, RD Laing and anti-psychiatry for background - mostly, psychology and psychiatry have no empirical basis, fail the test of "what is a science", and in practice (especially because of the preconceptions and ignorance of their own practicioners) are mostly systems of social control, normalization, and stigmatization.

Speaking of which, politically I'm somewhere between Ted Kaczynski, Bob Black, RAW, George Carlin when he got old and angry, and Schwa. Meaning, I'm one of those people you don't want to talk to, if you value your sanity and your social status.

A co-worker once said "whenever you talk to me about your vision of the future, this image pops into my head of the first few minutes of the Terminator movies, where the robots are rolling over the piles of human skulls".

Friday, May 20, 2011

BTO

Okay, I said BTO would interest me if it could crawl above $3.05 (dunno if I posted that here, but it's on my list at work). These past few days the chart looked good. I've watched stocks like BTO, last year, surge month after month, a few percent a day... in fact BTO was probably one of them. Never owned the damn thing while it kept flying up. My loss.

So this morning I bought in. Not a large position, but a good starter. I might try to ladder in with a bit of money from elsewhere on Monday, assuming these so-called news stocks of mine actually put out news on Monday.

I'm fairly convinced that HUI's bottomish now and gold looks constructive with a nice move up today. So why not buy BTO?

It's good I bought it now, and not at $2.80. When you buy at the bottom, it can always go lower. But now it's moved above its $3 previous resistance, and on good volume.

Friday obnoxious video

Friends of mine from the US from years ago, doing a brilliant sendup of Psychocandy-era Jesus & Mary Chain.



By comparison, here's the J&MC themselves, on the Old Grey Whistle Test.



And speaking of J&MC, Bobby Gillespie (the drummer) is now in Primal Scream.



Douglas Hart (the bassist) moved on to doing videos, including some for My Bloody Valentine.

Noon HUI

HUI has properly dinged the SMA(200). Nice hammer with a long tail now. MACD about to trigger up, if you believe in completely arbitrary bullshit indicators. Gold's popped for some reason.

If HUI blows thru the SMA(200) I'll be excited. I guess it could easily turn around though. But miners advancing while the broader market remains weak? Wow, that's some sort of paradigm shift or something.

GT and me switched places.

Normally I'm the guy who bottom-ticks the market and GT is the patient dude.

Check out today's silver chart. Silver hit bottom around 9:58 AM. By 10:07 AM, GT sends out an email warning of more downside. I respond "but it's OpEx day, and anyways HUI has less risk at 510 than 600, right?"

So?

Right now it's 11:16 AM. HUI's moved back up, and silver's gone back up over 2% since GT's comment - though interestingly the Q and S&P are still down - and I can feel superior. For a short while of course.

I've already discovered this blog is teaching me patience.

market comment

$HUI kissed the SMA(200) and is rolling over. A stop at 510 is a double bottom... and more than that and maybe we head to GT's 480?

Silver is also down, but I'm not concerned if it stays over $33. It's dropped as part of the broader market liquidity suck.

FVI remarkably looks strong with silver down.

I'm in newsy stocks and feeling good. I guess in this environment (a downtrend) you have to choose your holdings wisely?

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal

Terribly long cartoon, but worth reading. Courtesy of Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal.

$HUI and the EMA(10)

I'm not going to post a chart cos I don't have the time. Go to stockcharts and chart the $HUI vs its EMA(10).

The EMA(10) seems to be supportive on uptrends and resistive in weak periods. Over the past few days, the EMA(10) has been holding back the $HUI. There's been no breakthrough. Thus, to me, $HUI's weak. Then again, look at late January.

On the other hand though, $HUI's MACD(12,26,9) looks to be about to trigger up. So if you believe in such completely arbitrary, period-dependent, subjective technical indicators as the MACD, you might be kinda happy right now.

At least $HUI's volatility has shortened right up. Its last big candle was last Tuesday. Maybe that's a good thing?

market comment

Copper, nickel and zinc are all down pretty bad today.

Still think there's a correction, but I'm now all in again, only with stocks that are supposed to have imminent newsflow. And my old buddy RIO, of course.

Someone on the boards said he thought AUU was going to release 7 holes next week, and had already started drilling in Baker Lake. Dunno if that's just opinion, or if he actually got a mail back from Boaz. I've heard nothing back, myself.

Hoping Estrella makes happy noises this weekend.

Also picked up a small token amount of GPM today at 16 cents. It got dumped pretty bad (well... volume over a million, but at sub-20 cents it doesn't mean much), but I'm happy to own anything sub-16 since there's usually a time soon after when I can dump it for 20 or more. My holding is only using the gleanings of my account anyway, not a big position.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

TF's predictions for the PM market from here on.

Turd Ferguson has a prediction for the PMs. They rally to June, painting a double top. Then they drift back down over the summer. By end of summer they'll be back to the recent lows. Then by end of year we'll see gold $1750 and silver $50.
Hey, check out all the widgets I added to the left below the archive thingie!

So silver's hit a higher high this evening. And USD is diving again. I think we're out of the woods.

Back to work again tomorrow, they actually need me.
The world is not ending in commodities.

That's what you can take away from GT's 3 posts on sentiment today.

It's never armageddon, it's always just a small correction.

For future reference

For my own future reference, I just want to write at this point that there seems to be an eery consensus among bloggers that we're in for a nasty 10% correction in the broad markets.

That seems fishy to me. I'm no contrarian, but this is just too much agreement. Maybe $HUI's near a bottom now?

$UUP has turned down, silver's flirting with $35.50. Argonaut Gold looks like it might try to repeat an attempt to hit Gary's target - I'd get excited at $5.45, but right now it just looks like a few huge buys getting coattailed. Guyana Goldfields is hesitant. Almaden still doesn't look impressive.

Hey, speaking of which, I dreamt up a sarcastic comment last night. I remember in March during PDAC, Brent Cook appeared on BNN and suggested that the junior market was very frothy and companies were overvalued. Well, looking at the prices for AMM and LYD, I guess Cook must be feeling better now, eh? :-)

quick comment

Silver's been okay overnight. Turd Ferguson is hemming and hawing about whether this is a bottom in silver. S&P and the Q are both vaguely uppish this AM, but I'm not convinced the downward trend is finished.

Put all that together and I'd expect the $HUI to hit the SMA(200), then turn around over the next few days. Unless silver and gold decide to keep going up while the broad market goes down, and the miners are allowed to follow that sort of upward trend against the market. I guess since the $HUI's already down almost 20%, more than the broad market, it should at least decline less than the broad markets over the next few weeks.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

silver

Silver's been drifting back over $34 tonight... I'm looking at $34.22 on Kitco right now.

Gold $1487.

We'll see what happens tomorrow. I like the look of today's candle on the $HUI. Then again, the broader market's going to be tumbling for a while.

SWD

Mr. Philip O'Neill is President, Director of Sunward Resources Ltd. He is co-founder and Managing Director of Notela Resource Advisors Ltd., an advisory firm focused on the natural resource sector. In 2006, Mr. O'Neill founded MP1 Capital Ltd., a Calgary-based and family-owned private equity corporation established to identify and invest predominantly in high-growth opportunities in the natural resource industry. Prior to establishing MP1 Capital, Mr. O'Neill worked as a research consultant for Casey Research LLC from 2005 to 2006. Mr. O'Neill holds a Bachelor of Applied Science degree, Honours Program, from the University of Guelph in 1998.

Uh... Otto?

AMM

GT called a buy on AMM. I'm not buying that. The stock has been crashing violently over the past few months, and it crashed on large volume today, and I feel there's got to be a reason why.

FVI's also dropped below my $4.60 watch price. But I guess the reason is simply that FVI had a bad quarter. And, y'know, silver and the HUI collapsing too.

USA's collapsed through support too, in my view. I had a .50-.53 watch price, and now it's in the 40s. FWIW, I refuse to hold it, as I think Metal Augmentor's criticisms of USA may have some merit. I think USA will end up being a fail for Otto. Besides, the "it's leverage to silver" reason originally given for USA way back, which I could accept, seems to have become a bad thing, not a good thing.

Dumped BHV and got out. For good. Lost patience. I held for too long as the chart got worse and worse. I'm no longer going to hold a chart like that. Thankfully I already unloaded half in the 70s.

Still have patience with SWD (as they told me, they're increasing their resource, and we should get some results from those new targets someday) and AUU (again, news someday). I actually don't mind seeing SWD dump, as some of it is retail puking up illiquid shares because of seeing insider selling. That causes a pricing inefficiency, and that's where sometimes you can make money. But my tolerance isn't high. Right now though, I think my "get out" price might be low enough, and the price degradation slow enough, that we should see news before my mental stop gets hit.

Even then. If the stock doesn't react positively to the news, I'll be out.

AUU I have more patience with. I'm going to spend a few days reading up on banded iron formations in the Woodburn Lake Group. It's way sexxay.

But I'm still concerned that Boaz hasn't written back to me since I asked for an update on drilling last Wednesday or so. Why's he not writing back?

GLD and GDXJ



Since Jan 24, the last bottom in the $HUI, GLD has gone up 11% while GDXJ is even.


Look, btw, at the negative divergence between GDXJ and GLD. All through April. Yet we greedy bastards pretended that this time was different, and it was the miners that were misbehaving?


Now GDXJ overcompensates downwards after failing to proceed upwards.


This, in engineering, is called hysteresis. Look it up. The market is a cybernetic (complex, multiple feedbacks, multiple negative feedbacks regulating behaviour) system, and will exhibit cybernetic characteristics all the time.


Eventually, after GDXJ begins to outperform GLD on the positive side, it may be starting to bottom. Not yet, maybe? I dunno.

market comment

Was reserving comment on the market til things began to clear up.

On the one hand, silver's not collapsing. And HUI, after early morning weakness, seems to be evening out into yesterday's range.

But on the other hand, AMM, AR, and SBB look weak. SBB's still within support, but AMM and AR were supposed to be breakout stocks and have instead flopped.

BTO looks like it's able to withstand the negative feelings, but I'm still going to reserve judgment til I can see a few more days of its performance vs the GDXJ.

Funny to see SUR. From 70 cents a few months ago, it's now down to 27 cents. Ouch.

UUP is up, but not as high as Friday yet.

well there you go

Screw due diligence, just trust the chart. It seems I got out of Minera Andes for a good reason....


"Shares of Minera Andes were dragged down by news that TNR Gold (TNR) has modified its claim against Xstrata and Minera Andes regarding the Los Azules copper project in Argentina. In the original claim TNR asserted that it retains a conditional 25% back-in right to Xstrata's original portion (the northern half) of the Los Azules (now 100% owned my MAI) property that dates back to a May 15, 2004 option agreement with an Xstrata subsidiary. The New Claim now alleges that Xstrata and Minera Andes did not complete the required exploration expenditures for Xstrata to exercise its option on April 23, 2007 to acquire the Properties. Under this assertion TNR is claiming a breach of the original contract and is now seeking return of the Properties (the north half of Los Azules), or alternatively, damages. The original court date set for June 20, 2011 in Vancouver, has now been adjourned (no date set). Under this new claim TNR is now seeking rights to the northern block hosting the Los Azules deposit which could host 50-60% of the Los Azules deposit. The original claim equated to about 12.5-15.0% of Los Azules (25% of 50-60%).

Monday, May 16, 2011

SWD's been brutalized with dumping into the bid. A look at the L2 shows thin support now to $1.20. Though really, most of this damage has been done on low volume, mostly retail.

EST is now showing a bit of strength. Though again, not on significant volume.

Silver's still hemming and hawing. Turd Ferguson says there's a descending flag in silver and gold which has to resolve in the next 12 hours. If they resolve to the downside, the fall in mining will continue, I think.

I dumped my MAI at a loss. Small position, but still significant. It's been continuing lower since the drop, though, so no bad there. At least now I have a little bit of cash. I might chase FVI on silver strength, or instead hold for a good deal elsewhere. Argonaut's been looking strong despite the broader mining selloff, so maybe it might retest GT's breakout point?
Silver looks a bit weak-ish, but a higher low is still intact. I have to watch to make sure it doesn't drop below $32.

$USD is down a bit from Friday, but still nothing to write home about. Gold is slightly up. There's a divergence between the S&P 500 and the Q, with the Q down harder - similar to the gold & silver divergence - which I think might suggest that while today doesn't look so bad on the surface, there's still a de-risking going on.

However, contrary to that, the $HUI is painting a white candle, and pretty much an outside day to boot. I wonder if this is just a typical Monday newsletter boost?

Peru is up, but RIO's not.

MAI is very obviously in a downward channel right now; my own stoploss point ($2.25) will be coming very very soon. Why should MAI continue moving lower?

SWD is still getting dumped by Macquarie Capital and by Anon. Wonder if that's the insiders continuing to dump? Do they have a good reason to drive it below $1.30, you think? This doesn't look like a good place on the chart to dump... did these guys get cheap options at some point in the past?

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Here's another story on Iceland's economy, courtesy NY Times via a reccy from Ritholtz.

I'll always love Iceland. When they saw the scummy Brits were stealing their cod, they declared war on them.

Why would any country be stupid enough to try to fight a war with Iceland anyway? These people are the descendants of Viking criminals and their celtic slavegirls. They live on a fucking icy volcanic rock in the middle of the ocean.

This week's Biiwii

Right off the bat, I need to say that I love subscribing to biiwii's newsletter and will continue to do so for as long as he puts it out. It's inexpensive and makes me think. And his grand "inflationists versus deflationists" narrative, supported by the almighty $TYX chart, is certainly a central part of my narrative's framing.

But often I disagree, or at least roll my eyes, especially when he presents his monthly prediction of doom. Now, he's said he likes how I follow a number of writers (most recently Ritholtz, Grandich, Bespoke, Turd Ferguson, and Buttonwood are my top blogs). I'm not supposed to take GT at face value, but interpret (or fail to) on my own.

So, here's my own commentary on this week's biiwii.

Oh noes! Da silver-gold ratio is dropping?

GT warns that this can be a warning of an impending liquidity suck. Now, sure, Ritholtz has called a top, he expects a strong correction this summer. And there's reason: people are worrying about Eurozone again which is driving up $USD; copper's been looking bad for a while; and the end of QE2 looks like it might drive the US back into recession.

(In fact, I wouldn't put it past the Rethuglicans to pursue spending cuts and the definitive end of QE specifically to force the US back into recession, so that their Slightly Silly candidate has a better chance of beating Obama in 2012.)

But I parry thus! Silver's correcting off a bubble, dude! Its upward trendline doesn't get violated til $32. And hey, funny nuff, $32 is about where GT puts his SGR support at. Even GT notes that silver's bombed out enough now to look constructive. Because now it's back on its supporting trendline, I respond.

But yes. Okay. I should watch silver. Certainly if silver falls below $32, that's pretty much something that the bulls insist can never happen. And $USD over 76 is also a bad thing, because nobody's expecting it. Then everything gets scary, sure. And yes. GLDX looks weaker than hell. I can tell, because my own stocks look weaker than hell.

But I want to see silver drop below $32, and $USD fly above 76, and $HUI fail 500 (which would probably be the first of those three), before I pull the trigger on anything. And what should I do anyway?

I'm going to hold RIO no matter what, as long as it shows it has the strength to battle upwards. I assume, since it's x-listed in Lima, and assuming Keiko's always in the lead from now on, the only thing that could beat up RIO bad would be a collapse in silver & copper destroying the Peruvian economy and causing a liquidation on the IGBVL.

If things get worse I may dump SWD, FVI, MAI and AUU on any good news that puts my positions well into the green. I think I have a week to do that. Certainly if all these stocks continue to flash "fail" on news, or continue to NOT put out the news they're supposed to, I'm dumping the bitches.

Then what? If it's just an intermediate correction I can't see actually shorting anything.

Sunday thoughts

was surfing around looking for some videos by Nenia C'alladhan... couldn't find any. Then I poked around for some Corvus Corax instead - and stumbled across a whole pile of TV-quality videos from their Cantus Buranus tour, backed by an entire orchestra and choir. Here's one.

(PS the violinist wearing the industrial earplugs should be beaten to death. The point of playing music is to hear it, not to punch a timecard.)




Cantus Buranus is supposed to be based on the original medieval lyrics for what Orff eventually made into Carmina Burana.

That of course led me to looking for a video for Carmina Burana's "O Fortuna", one of the great kick-ass pieces that almost nobody can play properly.

(Seriously. Just like an der Schonen Blauen Donau or Vivaldi's "Spring", the vast majority of orchestras sterilize the piece and completely destroy all emotion in it. So if you want to hear the emotion in "Spring" you've gotta listen to Nigel Kennedy do it, and there's no point in listening to Strauss' Danube unless it's played by Austrians because nobody else seems to get it. Funny enough, Andre Rieu does a passable Strauss, but his version of O Fortuna is a piece of sterile garbage.)

So, weird, I found a version of "O Fortuna" performed in Bogota. The sound quality isn't great, but they perfectly nail all the emotion - chaos, despair, awe and transcendence. So, good for Colombia.



And whenever I think Orff, my mind wanders to French jazz-prog band Magma. Fast forward past the first 1-2 minutes of this and then just let it go all the way to the end.