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Copper's popped 6.5% higher today, though silver and gold aren't that much better than last week.
Miners are looking better: GDXJ, GLDX and SIL are back up over their EMA(8), though they haven't printed a higher high yet so I'mm not convinced. Copper miners, though, have printed a higher high.
I haven't waded back into the market as I'm not convinced this is any more than the Monday Happies. Plus I still have my sister's estate to sort out, so I have insufficient time to deal with things. You don't buy heavy when you don't have the time to mind your positions. I've learned that before.
I was thinking of wading into the copper companies, as the rumour du jour is that a Polish copper miner wants to buy out someone in Latin America. Frankly, I doubt it's Lumina; I'm thinking a Polish company would be happy to buy a copper property with toxic byproducts like Candente. After all, they have the technological prowess, and Polaks are cheapskates who are happy to buy second-rate fixer-uppers.
Background on KGHM: their Lubin mine produces copper and silver, with Ni-Co-Mo byproduct (i.e. marginally messy from a metallurg standpoint, though nothing serious). Polkowice-Sieroszowice is underground narrow-vein, with copper in wet sediment, with a salt layer also being mined. And Rudna mine is underground room-and-pillar, Cu-Ag. One of those 3 properties is also producing some serious lead byproduct (can't tell which from their website). KGHM also runs smelters.
Polkowice-Sieroszowice, as you can see above, is an utter clusterfuck: narrow-vein, wet sediment, underground. Who'd wanna mine that utter garbage? Well, KGHM seems happy to. They obviously have fantastic technical expertise, and smelting experience, so DNT's shitty arsenic-antimony contaminated ore would probably be no problem for them.
Hey, so I'd also be happy to buy some AQM on the cheap, maybe on Tuesday or Wednesday when Eurozone fear returns to the market; but frankly I don't see why KGHM wouldn't be interested in DNT. I wouldn't mortgage the farm on it, but I really think LCC is too rich for a bunch of penny-pinching Polaks.
Now obviously, the million-dollar question is: with the utter fear in copper, as of last Thursday anyway, with all the China gloom on the horizon: why would anyone be buying out anything right now?
acquisition coist is one thing, capex is another. whoever buys DNT (and Joey Freeze won't sell at anywhere near the current price) still has to build the machine.
ReplyDeleteI think you make a good case for DNT here, but still doubtful about the project personally. Def prefer AQM on the cheapo end
Huge capex, but doesn't KGHM have the money? Besides, it's a half-decent NAV at $2.50, so as long as you're happy buying a toxic waste (As-Sb) mine (which maybe nobody is, but KGHM at least would have the expertise to deal with it) you'd be happy buying it at $3 copper I'd think.
ReplyDeleteIsn't DNT further along than AQM? Anyway, as you said it's nothing more than a rumour, probably nothing, and I can't see any buyouts happening while we still fear a China collapse. Still, maybe worth buying a few shares here and there. Copper miners can't get worse, can they? I mean, before Xmas?
And after all, PGM's capex was nuts too. Aren't most buyable copper deposits huge on the startup cost side?
Half-decent NAV at $2.50 copper price, I meant....
ReplyDeleteTrue true and true. Still, DNT has been picked over too many times, cu deals are a strange world, and the ones like pgm where there's hermetic silence beforehand are rare indeed. i'd watch the mkt for clues and LCC is giving off all the right smells (even tho i'm not long and won't be unless it drops some).
ReplyDeleteI like playing the odds. I've sorely tempted to add to REG right now but stubbornly waiting on the 43101. AQM is the right profile for the spec playah...and i'm not
a spec playah
Well, since LCC's in an uptrend and certain rogue Peruvian bloggers seem confident we've seen the worst in copper, you may as well buy LCC anyway just for the shits-n-giggles of it.
ReplyDeleteI mean, if you were a momo. :-)
REG seems to have lots on offer at .95, whenever I look. I've added far too much and now fear it's going to turn into another BHV/FCV/VEM. But I do really like the geology, what I understand of it.
Hey, and look! - Lupaka didn't spike to $20 today.