Way out beyond the fringe

I don't want to start reposting the bulletins that I get from Bespoke Investment Group, because I really do like their service and don't want to lose access to it. Their daily pre-open update is something i hardly read anymore, but they regularly put out fun statistical analyses of the various occurrences in the markets. I highly recommend subscribing to their service - it's Otto-level cost, and it's completely dry, unpolitical, nonpartisan analysis from a purely mathy standpoint. It gives me a level head, which I need before poking my nose in at ZeroHedge to get the real doom news.

Anyway. Bespoke points out that today the S&P closed 4.3 standard deviations below mean. That is just a shade worse than October 28 or 29, 1929 (Black Monday and Swarthy Tuesday).

October 19, 1987 was -5.5 SD. The news of the Nazi invasion of France gave a -5.0 day and a -5.4 day, followed by a -4.0 day.

Importantly, the only times that multiple -4SD or worse days happened one after the other were during the fall of France and Black Monday. Otherwise they only occur once.

So if we were, say, to get a -800 SP day on Tuesday, you'd be well advised to write down what you were doing so you can tell your grandkids about the Great Buttrape of 2011.

Notably, though, after every such -4SD or worse day, over the following 6 months the market has always turned out positive. Anywhere from 2% to 21% higher... average 8.2% higher.

So... this may not be the bottom, but we've gotta be much more than halfway there.

Unless this time it's different, of course. I try to keep an open mind.