Bear Creek Mining - buyout?

So I was thinking about Bear Creek. Since I take the 11:57 to Great Umbrage whenever I think of EPS-based price targets for miners, especially in a buyout situation, I decided to play with finding a ciggypack DCF NAV value.

So first, I removed the assumed $25M/yr interest (cos I subtract capex off the top afterwards - see below). Then I took that modified net income estimate and stuffed it through excel with a 23-yr mine life and 8% discount rate (you could even use 10% or 12%, since the natives are restless and El Presidente's a screaming Bolivarian communist).

Sum over 23 years, and then subtract $650M off the top for the capex.

This is what I get for DCF NAVs, and what it would mean per ounce silver in the ground:

$1.7 billion at $25 Ag, or $5.24/oz (no inferred),
$2.1 billion at $30 Ag, or $6.44/oz,
$2.5 billion at $35 Ag, or $7.63/oz, and
$2.9 billion at $40 Ag, or $8.83/oz.

What's the typical price for a silver buyout nowadays, per ounce in the ground? Obviously nobody pays $2B for Corani if that's their projected NAV. At the same time, if the cash costs post credits are near-zero cos of the lead and zinc, I could almost see an exec being able to justify paying $5/oz for a project. Not that I know anything about the mining world. But $5/oz seems something you could get people to agree with.

Anyway, if the buyout comes at 50% of NAV, that's $9.40, $11.55, $13.69 or $15.83 per share. Since the latter target is only for $40 Ag, I can see why Sprott would (or should) piddle his panties over BCM.

I'm actually going to be interested in reading the feasibility study, if it's still coming in 3q11.

UPDATE 1: whoops, just checked the MD&A and now they're saying it'll be 4Q11. Well, no wonder the buying pressure dried up.

UPDATE 2: whoops, the MD&A does the math for me, dumbass. Here's what it says on p.5:

If August 12, 2011 spot metal prices ($38.29 silver, $1.08 lead and $0.98 zinc) were used in the economic model contained in the PFS, without adjusting any of the other inputs, the after-tax net present value of the project would be $2.1 billion at a 5% discount rate. The project would also have an internal rate of return of 87%. Readers are cautioned that this information is supplementary only and although the PFS does contain some sensitivity analysis, this information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the net present values and internal rates of return contained in the PFS, which were prepared in accordance with prescribed and standardized methods.

I haven't seen the old PFS, but from the numbers given on MD&A p.5 it looks like the Corani project's design front-loads high-grade ore. Which, I guess it should. That means my DCF NAV above is wrong (because I was assuming constant grade): but that's only because it's based on Otto's EPS calc, which is also wrong (because he was assuming constant grade and he's a newsletter writer so he should really know better).