Thursday, July 14, 2011

3 stock charts with pretty colours added by a trained monkey running Gimp 2


Here's GOZ, finally looking like a stock you'd want to own instead of a big pile of dead money. It's broken upward quite aggressively, you can see, but it's done so a few times before in recent history and just kept running for a good 50% gain. That's why I put the 2nd-dev Bollingers in there - just to show how meaningless they are to this stock.

I don't see much point in the SMA(120) above, except that it was failed support back in March. The SMA(50) looks a lot more significant, but we busted through that as part of the upmove. Volume is miniscule.

RSI(30) and CCI(100) seem to be meaningful in the backtesting, and it doesn't look like either is close to a danger zone. Then again, GOZ is still in a long-term downward channel that's basically defined at one end by the big thrust in December... I'd be interested in seeing if it can break 95 cents. If it does, then really you've only got lateral resistance between you and blue sky, I guess.

I personally didn't bother getting back into this stock (formerly called "that Swedish sack of utter shit") til it broke through 80 this week. It was acting too much like dead money, and I prefer moving my money around trying to make a gain every day. But now I own a little bit - hard to assign much of my portfolio to this when 40% of my money is tied up in RIO - and am already showing a 10% gain, hooray for me. I see Otto already gloated on his blog - he's probably safe on this one. GOZ doesn't seem to like to pull back when it goes on a tear. Too bad he bought in at 73 cents in October 2010, then even averaged up later. Ouch!

Sometimes buy and hold sucks, eh? I'm not criticizing it - I missed out on a $40K win when Eike Batista bought VEN because I'd sold the day before to buy some cheap RIO during a short attack - but I certainly know I don't have the constitution for it. Always best to do what comes naturally, I think.

And in case the above makes me sound clever - no, it was probably luck.

But yeah, I'd probably buy more GOZ if I could find something else worth dumping. But about my only candidate for dumping right now is BTO. See how hard the choices are when you're at nearly 0 cash?



US Silver seems to tend to pull back a lot on upmoves, so I'd guess you shouldn't be be surprised if you get another chance at 60 cents or less - especially if the price of silver doesn't maintain its heady momentum. SMA(120) seems to regularly show off its importance. The RSI(10) looks overbought - and oopsie I didn't draw it in, but we seem to be at a pivot point right now, from March and April. 65 cents or so.

And again, volume is miniscule.

So... what would you do? Dump it? If you're a hardcore momo with a toddler's attention span, like me? Frankly, I only have a half position left anyway, so I dunno... I'll see what silver does overnight, and if it looks like it's dumping, or if USA looks weak tomorrow, I'll probably dump USA and try to buy it back at Otto's Pride (that is, 58 cents). There's a gap to fill at 62-63, anyway.


Sulliden's chart is a dog's breakfast. I have no clue what's caused it to swing so wildly back and fro. (Partially because I have no clue what this stock is, beyond its name and ticker and it has something to do with exploration in Peru or something.) And it's at the MA(25) right now, but that seems to act more like support... the SMA(50) seems to be more resistive. MACD is crossing, as if that means anything, and the CCI(35) is coming off a heavily oversold condition. Volume is miniscule.

I dunno... if you were more patient than me and had a stronger constitution, you could buy it and hope it hits the top of the channel, presently around $2.35 but sloping downward. If it loses lateral support at $1.60 you dump it and don't look back. How does that risk-return look to you?

Then again, it's Peru... want more Peru risk in your portfolio?

6 comments:

  1. ha ha ha:
    (formerly called "that Swedish sack of utter shit")

    Yeah I couldn't agree more, but OR says patience. If I had listened to him with Antares, I could have retired by now. I'm still holding until it hits target.

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  2. Sure, same here with Antares and Ventana and BTO (never even owned it last year!) and FVI and so on and so on.

    Then again, I still had a 95% return last year without any of them. I even owned and made money on CMM, which I'll be able to laugh about forever, since it paid for 10 lifetime subscriptions to OR's newsletter.

    Like I said though, buy and hold works for those with the constitution for it. I just don't have the attention span. I always want to be doing something. It's a battle. I've mostly given up trying to change myself.

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  3. And, btw... I really DID pay for my subscription to Otto's NL with my Century Mining profits. And I told him that's where the money came from.

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  4. And btw, I don't do lifetime subscriptions so I'll tell you next year if IWNATTOS bothers to repeat.

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  5. OMG did someone actually EMAIL you asking how much a lifetime subscription costs?

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  6. And btw, comparing your amount of weekly content and depth of coverage with, say, Exploration Insights, you win hands down and I'll probably always subscribe for as long as you bother to keep it up.

    Even though you calculate targets based on cash flow multiples.

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