Friday, February 22, 2019

Trey Reik is who, now?

IKN - he's one of the smartest and most insightful commentators out there.

Well, let's see what Trey Reik, with a BA in Economics from Pomona College ooh fucking aah, has to say:

Figure 5, plots the Fed’s ratio of HHNW-to-GDP since 1952. We find this ratio important because it lends excellent perspective to the epic distortions Fed monetary policy has imparted on financial assets since the turn of the millennium. In short, GDP growth and savings rates have been declining in the U.S. for decades.

Must be some scary graph, eh?


Says there that household net worth has been climbing, as % of GDP, since 1979. HNW%GDP can well and truly be over 500%, by the way: all that means is that (given GDP in production = GDP in income, more or less) the yearly yield on total household assets is a maximum of 20%. In reality, it's more like 8%, with saved employment income adding another 12%.

So, what? Trey Reik is worried that households are wealthy?

A central component of our gold investment thesis is the simple math that GDP measuring $20.660 trillion can no longer drive healthy capital formation while simultaneously servicing $71.423 trillion in outstanding credit.

Huh? Why not? If that $71T in credit costs even 3%/y to service, then that's only $2.1T/y in debt servicing costs, which is about 10% of production.

And, by the way, credit drives capital formation. You'd know that if you ever started a business. And, lucky enough, that credit is also income to the lender.

Zooming in on how the ratio got to this level, between Q1 2009 and Q3 2018, nominal GDP increased a respectable $6.570 trillion (from $14.090T to $20.660T), while HHNW exploded an astonishing $54.248 trillion (from $54.790T to $109.038T). This means that for the past 9 ½ years HHNW has grown over eight times faster than GDP. We are unsure of many things, but we are quite certain no country, economy or society can increase wealth eight times faster than output forever.

Huh... so in other words, the stock market, 401Ks, and housing have appreciated in value. People are saving more than they did before - that's what a rise in household net worth means - probably because they're older, and because they've been earning (in the aggregate, anyway) much higher than their consumption needs.

Sounds horrible!

Trey Reik is a fucking clown, and if that chinfaced Ayn Rand twit Rick Rule still works at Sprott, he doesn't care that what Reik is spouting is utter fucking nonsense as long as you buy into their central thesis: buy some shitty Sprott fund or something.

Friday videos: Steve Hillage, betcha didn't see that one coming

For George Harrison's birthday, it's Steve Hillage live, covering "It's All Too Much":

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

gold pops

Well, for no reason whatsoever, gold has popped above $1330 this morning:

Which is a new short-term high, so the gold bull market continues, and thankfully I haven't sold any of my 2x long gold miners ETF.

Though both Osisko and Sandstorm have outperformed a double-long gold miners ETF, which is pretty stunning.

Friday, February 15, 2019

Monday, February 11, 2019

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Jeff Bezos fights back

You probably heard by now about Jeff Bezos taking the fight to the National Enquirer:

NY Times - Jeff Bezos' extortion claim under investigation by prosecutors. Now the Enquirer has placed itself in legal jeopardy a couple times over: not just by possibly extorting a public figure, but also by violating the terms of its settlement with federal prosecutors in the Trump affairs.

LA Times - Jeff Bezos' civic lesson. I wouldn't really call it a civic lesson, since Bezos is, at the end of the day, still a right cunt. However, it is important for the most powerful people in the world to continually remind trumped-up dictators that they can be crushed like bugs.


The Guardian - Bezos' blackmail claims put focus on Trump.

CNN - Bezos flags Saudi connection.

NBC - after Bezos, more allegations of blackmail against Enquirer. Given they've apparently also gone after NBC reporters, it seems there's at least one news outlet who, following Bezos' lead, isn't going to stop reporting on this.

It seems unbelievably stupid that the Enquirer would try to blackmail a person worth over $100 billion, who got that wealthy by fighting dirty, and who has a security service staffed with ex-Mossad working for him. But the fact is, really fucking stupid people have taken over the world, and they've spent years now being blissfully aware of the consequences you can face when you piss people off.

And now they all need to be reminded that being really fucking stupid and a great fucking asshole eventually has disastrous consequences. In the real world, eventually, someone big and mean ignores the "polite convention" that enables this behaviour, and just stomps on your head until you stop moving.

So even though I don't like Bezos one bit, I'm happy that he's (hopefully) pissed off now to the point that he's not going to back down, and is going to keep at this til the Enquirer, AMI, bin Salman, and Trump are all utterly fucking destroyed.

I hope there's a load of collateral damage along the way, too. Because when the average person is too gutless to stand up to stupidity, he also has to be reminded that gutlessness has consequences. So let's hope Bezos destroys a few thousand lives in the process.

Thursday, February 7, 2019

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

a note on China


There was a bubble in late 2017 and early 2018, of course, and then a precipitous drop as friction with Trump grew and the economy cooled somewhat.

But now, if you're following Bill Bishop, you know that the US and China are close to a new trade deal, and I assume the seven white candles in a row on the China weekly chart are an indication that the trade talks are as leaky as... some sort of Chinese very leaky thing.

Friday, February 1, 2019

Friday videos, now with 30% less

Believe it or not, a futuristic video with robots that doesn't have shitting all over it with raps about being niggerific and if he be a bank he be loanin' out semen:

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

More on John McAfee's presidential bid

Previously on Buffy the Vampire Slayer, we noted that McAfee wants to run for president in 2020 on a platform of blah blah bitcoin blah blah bitcoin.

However, in July 2017 he promised he'd eat his own dick on national TV in 3 years if Bitcoin didn't go to $500,000.

That means that during the 2020 presidential campaign, a few short months before the election, a presidential candidate will have to temporarily go off message to eat his own dick on national TV.

I realized this and immediately wondered if that would harm, or help, McAfee's polling numbers.

Discuss in the comments section.

Friday, January 25, 2019

John McAfee, the gift that keeps on giving

Fortune - John McAfee running for president in 2020! Nobody can make this up. Robert Anton Wilson wouldn't put this in a novel because he'd consider it too unbelievable.

Two observations:

1) He's pulling out all the stops to ensure he doesn't have to eat his own dick on national TV.

2) I think we all agree that electing a crazy guy wanted for tax evasion who lived in the jungle with his young Belizean girlfriend while doing synthetic drugs up his bum could be a tremendous improvement over what the US has now.