Friday, March 6, 2015
A GUY MAKES TINY EDIBLE PANCAKES USING TINY KITCHEN UTENSILS: you won't believe what you need to know next!
This man is taking Japan by storm.
Or whatever I guess.
at 8:00 AM
New Deal Demoncrat - drilling down past the headline numbers. He points out:
Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: unchanged at $20.80, up 1.6%YoY. (Note: you may be reading elsewhere that wages went up. They are citing average wages for all private jobs. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to the situation for ordinary workers.)
And a 1.6% yoy from last February, whose weather sucked more than this year's remember, with zero gains from January, means that wage inflation still isn't an issue, which means no there's not going to be a Fed rate hike in June.
The more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were mixed with a downside bias, basically taking back their gains in January.
So as noted Q1 GDP still is expected to suck when it comes out.
But you white-ass honky hedge fund clowns go ahead and keep your algos programmed to trade on the headline number. It's not going to hurt you, you still get your 2% & 20%.
This is the important bit of news for this morning:
US dollar makes a +3SD upmove on a good jobs number. I doubt it stays there.
And as for gold:
The damage came from the US dollar move. As for the ex-US price of gold, it's still not looking bad.
Algos puke, it's what they do.
Oh also US regional banks have exploded higher, but they're still banging on the resistance line.
OK, power supply is fixed, but it was a bit of a bitch: damn thing gets wedged over the CPU fan, and who the hell decided you needed an extra 4-pin connector on the motherboard?
Anyway, back to giving you all the news you're never interested in reading anyway:
New Deal Demoncrat - durable goods is a useful long leading indicator. And it looks fine right now.
Calculated Risk - hints of real wage increases. What would be a lot nicer is if we saw a secular shift in the American power structure, back towards labour and away from the capitalist class. Because that was the driver of American growth from the 50s onward.
Brett Steenbarger - measuring market sentiment with the index put-call ratio. Which is a completely different thing from the equity put-call ratio.
This post was scheduled weeks ahead of time, but I'm assuming that junior miners puked like crazy by now and are back to their old sucking.
So here's the Yeah Yeah Yeahs reminding you just how low a junior mining stock can go:
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Daniela Daniela Daniela! And a bunch of other people too but it's hard to get as worked up about them
Here's Daniela Cambone interviewing Martin Murenbeeld:
He talks about his gold price models and how he post-hoc doctors them, and how he doesn't see anything wrong with that, especially the idea that the Crimea situation added $20 to the gold price which is funny cos who the fuck buys gold because of Crimea and which of them are going to buy more gold because of Donetsk?
But he does say that he and the people he hangs out with thinks now is a good time to get back into miners, which is significant cos that's the mainstream there.
Here's Daniela Cambone interviewing Jeffrey Christian:
He injects some reality in the blather about "manipulation". And he thinks the gold price will quiet down for the next few months. Rather sensible fellow.
And here's Daniela Cambone interviewing The Cookie Monster:
And for some silly reason he thinks that declining primary gold production won't do anything to the price of gold.
BNN - An hour with the Cookie Monster! The phones just blow up when Cookie is there, so they say!
Just from memory, he calls Dalradian a top pick, and thinks there's no reason to sell B2Gold right now.
He also thinks we've hit peak gold production, and we're well past peak discovery, and he's always talked about how we're now mining far more gold than we're discovering. So next time you meet him, ask him what he thinks the gold price will be 2-5 years from now because of this situation.
Well, is it a bottoming pattern?
Here's a hint:
Gold's been starting to inch up again ex-us.
I dunno, that looks good to me....
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
PDAC - Tuesday afternoon PDAC investor forum schedule. There's The Clive, ready to take your questions today at 2:40 PM.
I will give a shiny one-ounce silver coin to the person who goes to this session and manages to ask Clive a question prefaced with any of the following:
1. "Please don't hit me, but...";
2. "Before you stumble out of here in a drunken stupor and attack someone again, I'd like to ask...";
3. "I have a two-part question. Firstly, how does it feel when Dan 'The Hammer' Earle smacks you down like the pussy bitch you are, and secondly...".
Recorded proof required, and yes dammit I'll happily post it here.
GDX's action, turning back from the Boll mean but then staying supported at the SMA(50), is positive. Damn I look at that action of the past few days and it's so tempting.
I know it's PDAC and we're supposed to dump and not come back til June. Then again, whoever's left in the gold miner market also knows this, and is probably dumping, and yet this is all the damage it can do to the chart?
GLD has popped above the EMA(6) which governed the Jan-Feb downtrend, which if you'll remember is a 50% retrace of the January gold ex-USD pop. It's also riding the Nov-Feb uptrend support line, and if you see a higher low that's doing a good job of not breaking down then it might just be a good price point to buy, right?
Hard to tell what to do. But the charts are showing me opportunities and I like that.
Three charts, check the last candle on each:
Sure looks like high-yield wants to roll over.
Yet shorting the near month volatility doesn't look that bad... though maybe that's just cos the XIV trade just spent six months getting slaughtered, so maybe the XIV speculators have all left for the next big thing.
Though at the same time, TLT and UUP still aren't showing strength.
This would be a very annoying market if I didn't already have a ton of profit booked. As it stands, I'd really love another 5% "crash" so I can go back to a heavy leveraged-long position and make more money.
People really want to know who he is! Here's a search from Dow Jones:
|click to unsmallicize|
So why would someone from Dow Jones & Company want to put themselves in danger just to find out who Otto Rock is?
Especially when they should be asking who I am. That's the question on everyone's mind nowadays: I'm that fuckin' up-and-comer whose blog shakes the balls of Bay Street and puts the panty-piddling Wall Street bloggers to shame. White-ass honky Nazi cracker tries to block me in all the company internet filters cos he can't handle my truth gettin' out but my secret following of anti-capitalist warriors just switches to myownmarketnarrative.blogspot.mx or .ua or .ch, or they follow me on their own smartphone, just to sit on my every fucking word yo.
Cos I be the homey that called the January gold pop, and I be the homey that called Blackberry, and still all the bitches be hatin' but here I am still slappin' my thing down.
And the fat pasty White-ass honky crackers like Josh Brown and Barry Ritholtz? I don't follow them bitches, yo. They be fuckin' livejournal, but me I'm that next shit that your girlfriend is beggin' for. Whole fuckin' internet be hangin' off my dick by springtime and WSJ just wishes their Nazi racist asses could participate but I don't go on the down-low with fucking Reaganite race-war bitches.
So sure, keep googling "Who is Otto Rock". Nice to see the homeboy getting some attention. But don't you bitches forget he's a candle, but I'm the infinite blackness behind it.
IT TAKES A NATION OF MILLIONS TO HOLD ME BACK
IKN - Wall Street Journal asks his opinion on something. Which tells you exactly how many gold market experts the WSJ has in their rolodex.