In your opinion, what does this blog need more of?

Friday, April 28, 2017

Friday videos: Füxa, Britta Phillips, Daniel Johnston


Yeah no seriously, Britta Phillips from The Belltower & Luna, with Detroit electronic band Füxa, covering a Daniel Johnston song, in the style of Spectrum.



Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Q: which airline just killed a giant rabbit: A: the answer may surprise you!


The Guardian - United Airlines kills giant rabbit. I'll rewrite this the way it should be:

The 3ft (90cm) continental giant rabbit, which was 10 months old and named Simon, died while travelling from London Heathrow to O’Hare airport in Chicago.

The airline revealed it had offered the customer a hearty laugh and, contrary to previous reports, clarified that the animal was alive when it was taken off the flight.

United’s spokesman Charles Hobart said the animal had appeared healthy and shown no signs of distress upon landing, so they punched the fucker and dragged it off the plane bodily.

About 30 minutes later, he said, the rabbit was sleeping in a pet facility run by the company, and shortly afterwards an employee opened its cage to find it dead.

It comes three weeks after a video showing a passenger being dragged off a United flight sparked widespread outrage.

“We won’t know the cause of death, but we're proud of our work,” said Hobart. "We intend to kill that fucker Santa Claus next, and after that maybe we'll do something unspeakable to the Tooth Fairy."

If the animal had flown British Airways, at least you'd know it was killed by the putrescent miasma served on the journey that is British food.

Monday, April 24, 2017

reaction post


Wow... haven't been here for a while, eh? Just did my econometrics test today, was surprised both at how much writing there was, as opposed to just doing math, or ticking off a box on a scantron: he actually wanted explanations of things, which is a new and interesting thing in an economics class.

The exam was easy - there wasn't even anything on dummy variables or functional misspecification. Now I have one exam Wednesday night (making me miss Buffy, the bastards!) and a second on Thursday afternoon, then it'll be a nice long vacation for me to blather market commentary at you during.

I'm also trying to get off my medicine, as there have been a few stories in the press (maybe planted by some company with a new competitor product, you know how it works, it's not as if the NY Times has distinguished itself as a bastion of fact-checking now has it) about how long-term use has very negative side effects. The problem is, not taking my medicine has very immediate and painful side effects. I'll have to go see the doctor this summer to see if I can change what I'm taking.

As for the market?

Wow, big one-day reaction to the French not electing two Euroskeptics to the runoff round, eh? SPY pops and gold drops.

But much of this gold drop was due to a rise in the Euro; $1266 is the Bollinger mean for gold's upward trend support, and $1260 was the top of the breakout support. And the overnight puke was in an empty market, which means someone was just trying to cave in gold to make money being short, which has turned out to be a grand fucking failure for them, hasn't it?

So gold is still perfectly fine and you goldbugs are advised to quit piddling your frilly little pink girl-panties.


Monday, April 17, 2017

Jordan Roy-Byrne pulls his pants back up


Jojo - I wuz wrong. Watch the video.

God ex-USD is advancing strongly, and he does note that Gold vs NYSE could be a double bottom. But it could also not be.

As far as resistance lines, they mean nothing. His 80 & 160 moving averages also mean utterly nothing to his chart.

Otherwise though, he provides some useful insights, and it's nice to see him back with us goldbugs on the bullish side.


Friday, April 14, 2017

Project for this summer: oh and also piss more people off


Project for this summer:

1. Learn Arabic.

2. Post on an Islamic fundamentalist forum that flowers are the virgin genitals of plants, and fruit are their impregnated genitals, so because of their lustful nature flowers and fruit should be haram, right?

3. Spend the rest of the summer watching the entire fundamentalist Islamic world die of scurvy.


Friday videos: very nice cover


This is a really beautiful, stripped-down cover of a Smashing Pumpkins song, and it's only gotten 500 views:



When you make it sound so good that I forget how punchable Billy Corgan is, you've done a really good job.

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

You know the blog is back to normal when there's kitty videos





Remember, Jordan called it



Get Back Jojo - bearish reversal in gold and silver.

He called it.

Um... a breakdown in gold and silver, that is. Not, um, a new bull move in the miners.

You need to watch the Bollinger mean and a short EMA, Jordan. Not enough lines on your charts.



Chartwise, here were are


OK, now the market has decided to become interesting.

$VIX:


Exploding higher now. That's nice. People have been going short $VIX through XIV a lot over the past few months, when they should understand you only short $VIX right after it's spiked and the futures curve has gone back to even, then sell as it comes back down. As these guys try to lock in their profits or get out before the collapse, it'll flood the futures market and possibly produce a really big spike.

Which we can trade.

SPY:


That is an unambiguously negative chart right now. It screams top. Over the past month MACD hasn't been able to turn up, and that last bounce off the SMA(50) only produced a feeble upmove that has now fallen flat. Now's the time for some fun, possibly.

It would be really funny if the entirety of the 10% move since the election gets given back. It shouldn't, because the 10% move makes perfect sense after a 2-year sideways consolidation no matter who's in the White House.

But if we lose some of that Nov-Mar easy money run, the people betting on easy money in the market will find out it's actually hard after all. Guess what? Trump didn't make you rich after all.

And what about the PMs?:


That touch of the SMA(50) yesterday, with a fakeout on the MACD, followed by today's good price action, is very positive. And we're very close to a higher high.

And you've been reading some of those guys who've thrown in the towel on gold and the miners, right? So was March just a cleansing of the market? Are we going up now?

GDX:


That looks very positive, how GDX got kicked down below the SMA(50) last month, then fought back up, then spent 3 weeks trying to break back through the SMA(50). Especially with all the gold boosters spending an entire month blathering on about how gold was done. RSI is still healthy and MACD is only at zero, so we have a setup for a decent run if only we can find some volume to back it up.

Looks like goldbugs might have fun for a while.

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Sunday economic indicators


Really, the US economy is on set-and-forget. And since the election of Trump, the right-wing doomer brigade has had no ebil sociamalism to blame an impending collapse upon, so there's less worry in the market.

But still, I may as well give you some links once in a while to remind you of the above.

So here:

New Deal Demoncrat - March jobs report. His summary:
While the headline for most summaries of this report will probably be the miss in the headline jobs number, the deeper trends appear to be a continuation of what we have seen for the last few months: significant declines in both the unemployment and underemployment rates, a continuing sharp increase in labor force participation (the biggest in nearly 30 years), but continuing wage growth stagnation. These trends are probably linked. The big move from people off the sidelines into the labor market is probably helping keep a lid on wage growth.

The only other negatives in the report is the stubborn high number of people outside of the labor force who want a job now, and the decline in the manufacturing workweek and overtime.

All in all, this was a quite positive late cycle jobs report, as the YoY% gain in jobs continues to decelerate, but remain positive.

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Summary:
You can always find at least one sector that looks bad. One year ago it was manufacturing. Now it is brick and mortar retail sales. But the vast majority of indicators demonstrate that the outlook over the next 6 to 8 months remains very positive. The outlook for one year and further out remains generally neutral with a slight positive tilt.

New Deal Demoncrat - OMG it's a slight pullback we're dooomed. Wherein he uses graphs to disprove idiotic bullshit.


Calculated Risk - hotel occupancy increases yoy. Still better than median, still better than 2015.


Calculated Risk - rail traffic increased in March. Total carloads is still better than 2016, but not 2015.


Bespoke - consumer pulse: home improvement. Interesting little tidbit: the fraction of home improvement involving an outside contractor has gone up.


All in all, many reasons not to piddle your frilly little pink panties.

Friday, April 7, 2017

And as for gold, and Trump


Oh and meanwhile, gold popped above $1260, and TA-wise that's bullish. Close above $1265 and you have a higher high, which means the bull market is intact.

However, you could legitimately respond that it only happened cos Trump fired 50 missiles at Syria. Which actually was a smart thing for him to do, no really I'm impressed here, and you have to wonder if the Russkies are still feeling so smug now that their puppet is bombing their murderous dictator ally and the materiel that Russia just gave him.

In fact, Trump firing 50 missiles at Syria will also change the political calculus in North Korea, and will also make an impact on Xi Jinping. So all around, firing 50 missiles at Syria is unambiguously positive for the USA, because it means they're out of the business of cuddles and fluffy bunnies and in the business of bombing your shit from orbit if they feel like it.

The US has a responsibility to the rest of the world to not be Sweden. Good for them for figuring that out.


Credit where credit is due, this response certainly didn't come from Trump. You could tell from his presser about the nerve gas attack that he's starting to realize he's in way over his head with this gig, and being the president isn't a childish game like being a reality TV clown after all.

I'd expect the 50 missiles idea came from Mad Dog Mattis, or someone like him. And Mattis isn't an idiot, he's actually a guy who knows how to do military diplomacy successfully. Step one is let people know you're a little bit crazy, your armed forces are larger and more advanced than the rest of the world's combined, and you're just looking for an excuse to bomb people from orbit.

And with one launch Mattis has knocked the world back on its heels. So good for him.

So as for gold, barring any escalation in Syria, which has suddenly turned into a losing proposition for the Russkies, I wouldn't put much into this pop except maybe as a chance for gold bears to put on new shorts at a good price. And putting on new shorts can turn out bad, or it can turn out good.

As far as the Russkies go, their tail is now between their legs, and they'll probably cut and run in Syria now. The Americans won't suddenly get involved in that conflict because there's no profit to them in removing Assad; but now they've demonstrated they're happy to blow your shit up from orbit for any reason, and that is good enough to change international relations in a positive way.