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Friday, April 29, 2016

Paging Jeffy Currie of Goldman Sachs

Hey Jeffy! $1292! What gives, Jeffy?

Case for owning the S&P TSX 60 ETF

Gee, you ask, is there a way to still be long North American equities without so much exposure to possible US collapse, but also be long gold, long miners, sort of long oil, and gee also maybe snag a bit of that positive outperformance of Canadian banks?

Sure. XIU.TO. It's an S&P TSX 60 ETF.


* Canada's finished its recession, and Trudeau's going to stimulate growth if it kills him. Our economy should go up from here, relative to the US.

* The Canadian banks have always made money, yet the stupid yanks have sold them down to a 4% yield. But now, the yanks are looking for any way to make money safely, and suddenly 4% yield with the prospect of capital protection really must look good to them. The Canadian banks are all traded in New York, by the way, and we already know that asshat cracker Yanks love sloshing around in kiddy pools that are far too small for them.

* XIU.TO offers a 3%-or-so yield. That's 50% better than SPY, with more possible upside.

* Pretty much the only companies the TSX 60 has as its components are banks, insurance companies, and miners. Oh and maybe a couple consumer stocks. Oh and a couple worthless joke companies like Bombardier and SNC Lavalin, but at least we can be certain the Liberals will give them free money.

* The S&P 500 and the TSX seem to have gone extremely uncorrelated recently. That's good for reducing your risk if you're a SPY owner, but it's also something that maybe the quants will chase.

* Xiu Xiu was a good band.

PS: Post #5500!

GLD bullion holdings

IKN - GLD bullion holdings. Quote:
Interestingly the holdings of bullion in the biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), are some 20 tonnes lower than this time last month despite the recent pop in gold.
And yet since 3/28, gold's still been going up.

That means someone's been buying it besides Whitey. To the tune of more than 20 tonnes.

What happens when Whitey decides to switch sides and quit fighting the price, do you think?

$VIX pops, SPY drops, and there's some sort of yellow metal making waves

I uninstalled Chrome in an attempt to reduce the bloatware and mothership chatter on my computer, so I'll be unable to post charts for you til I can find a new browser that works in Google's bullshit Blogger platform.

But if you go look up some charts, you'll see $VIX popped to 16.35 as of this post, and SPY is continuing last afternoon's bot-driven drop through its Bollinger mean. So I guess markets will go down for a while. It was all going to end anyway, as we got closer to the UK's guaranteed vote to leave the Eurozone.

Meanwhile, embarrassing Jeffy Currie at GS to no end, gold is breaking through $1280. Wut happen?

I guess people all of a sudden want to buy gold, eh?

The story is that the whole commodity pop is the result of new crackhead blood, as Chinese traders discover there's a thing called a commodity exchange. That's supposed to frighten you right there, because the Chinese are maniacal gamblers who flood into a market by the billions, blow out prices, then watch the whole thing fall apart leaving them broke.

Which is fine, except that also describes Wall Street Whitey, and frankly I think it's nice to see a billion new crackheads join the commodity futures world. That's futures demand, whatever else you call it. And I doubt it's psychologically possible for someone from China to go short gold. Frankly, this alone should scare the entire cracker world into going long gold.

I mean, hell! What if you decided to dump 50 tons notional into thin bids, only to get it all gobbled up in China, and that's the last you see of that price? I really don't think it's a good idea to short the Chinese. They have a radically different culture that's the product of 5000 years of very different history. They are not to be counted on to act like some wanker from NYC.

Besides, if we are approaching the second half of a secular DM bull market, commodities are supposed to inflate back up anyway. That's what they do, right?

Of course, that may not happen this time, since all the DM world leaders are pursuing aggressive deflationary policies. Maybe in the next few months they finally succeed in destroying world demand forever?

Of course all the skinflint German grannies will bitch about getting 0.01% interest on their savings accounts, but quite frankly, Hilda, nobody needs your fucking savings because your Nazi finmin has successfully destroyed all loan demand in Europe, you ugly bitch. Good luck loaning funds to Iran.

As for $SPX, I see no reason for it to crash down to 1900 again, except out of force of habit, at least til England votes to move its island 500 miles west and the rest of the EZ goes back to destroying Greece some more. And maybe Pooty-Poot can do something to kill the markets too - keep reading Zerohedge for clues as to who he's going to invade next. I'm sure the presidents of the Baltic countries are scanning that website every day making sure Pooty isn't saying anything about them.

Anyway, if the $SPX does look like it's going to tank, that should inspire the range traders to puke it even harder, because with no earnings growth and world aggregate demand down the shitter the only way you can make money is on the range trade. Shorting volatility with XIV could have made you 50% over the past 3 months, I'm sure people want another at-bat.

Which is another reason people will go long gold and long gold miners - because they're jealous at how much money's already been made since the bottom. Hell, I'm jealous. And that demand will be enough to turn the tide on gold.

Maybe I guess.

Bloomberg tells us what we already knew about Zerohedge.

Bloomberg - ooh! unmasking the secret writers behind Zerohedge!

It's been no secret that Zerohedge is run by the neo-Nazi paid Russian disinformation agent son of a known cold-war Bulgarian spy. The other guys don't really matter that much. In fact nothing about them really matters that much, except that what you're really reading is whatever anti-American propaganda Vladimir Putin pays for. So when the guy says that Ivandjiiski's disinfo website's main slant is:

Russia=good. Obama=idiot. Bashar al-Assad=benevolent leader. John Kerry= dunce. Vladimir Putin=greatest leader in the history of statecraft

We knew this already. Not news.

Friday videos: Human League

Hard to think these were the same guys who recorded "Voice of Buddha", but anyway it's still a fun song:

I especially loved the obnoxious lead synth. And Jo Catherall obviously.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Some reading

So apparently Amazon and Facebook turned out fantastic results; in addition, it turns out Apple's drop was entirely because that limp dick Icahn decided to dump his stake in the misguided belief that he knows anything at all about China.

So maybe now Wall Street Whitey will quit selling the fucking Nasdaq like a panty-piddling two-year-old girl who just saw a bug, and get some fucking sense through his head.

Here's some news:

BBC - John Boehner calls Ted Cruz "Lucifer". As a Luciferian Satanist, I am quite offended.

der Spargel - German Nazis forge closer ties with Moscow. Those of us familiar with Zerohedge are not surprised by the continued Russian support for Nazis.

Reuters - Varoufakis calls Europe a cesspool of deflationary forces. Um, V-dog, cesspools don't contain forces. They contain feces. "A cesspool of deflationary feces" is more correct. Even better, just call them a pack of Nazi-worshipping right-wing lickspittles.

Exams done

Well, I finished all my exams. I got an embarrassing A in micro, but an A+ in macro. Dunno about stats but that had damn well better be an A+.

No clue whatsoever about development economics - I don't think I had the slightest problem on that exam, but it was a written exam and I need a 93 for an A+ in that class.

But 2 As and 2A+es would give me a $1500 scholarship, which would be nice.

As for the market, it looks like gold miners are taking another leg up - dammit, Kinross is even beating the double-long ETF! Two touches of the EMA(10) probably means the next consolidation goes down to the Bollinger mean at least, but who knows?

And as for broad equities - dammit, isn't Royal Bank looking great. It's beating the S&P 500.

I might get back to regular posting soon, but frankly I haven't been arsed, what with the lack of news. I'll leave you with a funny quote from Polemic's Pains:

If the UK left the EU and joined Apple each household would be £6,000 better off.

I think this is a hint that Apple in in late-stage talks to buy out ASDA.

Monday, April 25, 2016

market comment

Studying for one more exam, and I need an 83% just for an A, so no time for you lot.

Still, I wanted to ponder this: do you think it's possible for the Canadian equity market to diverge from the US equity market?

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Zerohedge no longer accepting $20s

WSJ RTE - US Treasury to replace slaveowner Andrew Jackson with escaped slave Harriet Tubman on $20 bill. Quote:

Tubman was born a slave around 1822 on Maryland’s Eastern Shore and became a leading abolitionist and suffragette.

Tubman had scars throughout her life from being whipped as a young child. As a child, she was forced to wade into icy water in the winter to set muskrat traps, causing frequent illnesses, according to Harriet Tubman scholar Kate Clifford Larson. During Jackson’s second term as president, she was nearly killed when an overseer threw an iron weight and struck her in the head.

And in direct comparison:

Jackson became a successful lawyer in Tennessee and purchased a 1,000-acre plantation. He bought more slaves throughout his career, and owned about 150 people by the time of his death in 1845.

Tubman escaped from slavery in 1849 but spent the next decade repeatedly returning to Maryland to help free her friends and family through the Underground Railroad, a network of people and places that helped slaves safely escape to the north. Ultimately, Tubman is believed to have personally saved about 70 other people from slavery during 13 rescue missions, according to Larson.

And you know they only kicked Jackson off the $20 for Tubman at the behest of that Kenyan muslim usurper, right?

I can just imagine Zerohedge has gone livid over this.

Oh wait, they have:

Zerohedge - US Treasury replaces America's greatest campaigner against the banksters with a nappy-head. The comments section is pure gold.

Zerohedge - not enough Nazi on our page today, let's ask Pat Buchanan for his opinion. Answer: affirmative action!

Of course, we shouldn't be surprised that a Bulgarian son of a Soviet client state secret agent, taking money from Putin and the FSB to run anti-American propaganda on his website, is also a Nazi who hates black people.

Friday, April 22, 2016

Friday videos: German Shepherds

One of the strangest bands of all time with one of the most extreme backstories, and now someone made a video to one of their songs:

Eat your heart out, Coil.

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Quick note on markets

What's been strong the past few months is:

- Royal Bank (RY). Seems people want to own the Canadian economy again, especially at a 3.8% dividend yield.

- Peru (EPU). Seems people want to own resource producing economies again.

For obvious reasons, those two should be strongly positively correlated with GDX.

As long as that strong positive correlation holds and all are going up, it makes perfect sense to own gold miners.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Some Monday news

Did the macro exam today, no clue how I did.

Here's news:

The Krugginator - robber baron recessions. Seems someone's been reading that stuff in my blog about how increasing monopoly power causes stagnation:
The argument begins with a seeming paradox about overall corporate behavior. You see, profits are at near-record highs, thanks to a substantial decline in the percentage of G.D.P. going to workers. You might think that these high profits imply high rates of return to investment. But corporations themselves clearly don’t see it that way: their investment in plant, equipment, and technology (as opposed to mergers and acquisitions) hasn’t taken off, even though they can raise money, whether by issuing bonds or by selling stocks, more cheaply than ever before.

How can this paradox be resolved? Well, suppose that those high corporate profits don’t represent returns on investment, but instead mainly reflect growing monopoly power. In that case many corporations would be in the position I just described: able to milk their businesses for cash, but with little reason to spend money on expanding capacity or improving service. The result would be what we see: an economy with high profits but low investment, even in the face of very low interest rates and high stock prices.

And such an economy wouldn’t just be one in which workers don’t share the benefits of rising productivity; it would also tend to have trouble achieving or sustaining full employment. Why? Because when investment is weak despite low interest rates, the Federal Reserve will too often find its efforts to fight recessions coming up short. So lack of competition can contribute to “secular stagnation” — that awkwardly-named but serious condition in which an economy tends to be depressed much or even most of the time, feeling prosperous only when spending is boosted by unsustainable asset or credit bubbles. If that sounds to you like the story of the U.S. economy since the 1990s, join the club.

There are, then, good reasons to believe that reduced competition and increased monopoly power are very bad for the economy. But do we have direct evidence that such a decline in competition has actually happened? Yes, say a number of recent studies, including one just released by the White House. For example, in many industries the combined market share of the top four firms, a traditional measure used in many antitrust studies, has gone up over time.

The obvious next question is why competition has declined. The answer can be summed up in two words: Ronald Reagan.

For Reagan didn’t just cut taxes and deregulate banks; his administration also turned sharply away from the longstanding U.S. tradition of reining in companies that become too dominant in their industries. A new doctrine, emphasizing the supposed efficiency gains from corporate consolidation, led to what those who have studied the issue often describe as the virtual end of antitrust enforcement.
Have fun in the new dark age, everyone!

Polemics Pains - Doha mwaha. Old news from before the trading day, all out of date given the final sentence:
However, imagine the horror if global markets actually end up closing higher on Monday.
Because it turns out they did, and the move in XIV suggests a lot of short options throwing in the towel. Oh well, I'm sure we'll get a fun market when the UK votes to leave the EU. When's that coming again?

Bespoke - R2K closes above 200DMA. Tell me about that coming market crash again, Gary Wordsalad! Are markets still in "bounce" mode? Is sentiment still over bullish by "dumb money"?