Friday, September 21, 2018

gold don't wanna pop

Amazing how the Lizard People don't want gold to cross the SMA(50):

But at the same time, the Forces of Liberty and Jebus aren't letting it collapse through the lower Bollinger band, either.

Maybe telling today is that the 8:45 puke of gold didn't cause silver to go into the red.

Friday videos: a propos of nothing, Muppets again

Mee mee!


Thursday, September 20, 2018

A propos of nothing, Muppets

The end of the US bid?


Macro Tourist - the end of the US bid?

Yeah, I think he's forgetting that you can invest in US equities from anywhere in the world, and that everyone else in the world also wants to buy US because Europe is a clusterfuck etc.

But still, maybe you want to read it.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

winter recession?

WSJ RTE - Trump threatens more tariffs. This is the part that interests me:


Trump administration tariffs against China—implemented, on the way and threatened—would cover just about all imports from that country. That's going to leave a mark. It's hard to forecast precisely how much the economy could slow or inflation would rise. How does China retaliate? How do markets respond? How badly are supply chains snarled? But Oxford Economics estimates that U.S. gross domestic product growth could drop by a full percentage point next year if the U.S. tops off the current $250 billion with another $267 billion in tariffs. With the economy expected to grow at a 2.4% to 2.8% pace (according to Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office estimates), that's a significant drag.


New tariffs might provide a short-term boost before the long-term drag settles in—if companies respond by importing as much as they can from China before the tariffs hit. Revved up spending and rising inventories could boost growth through the end of the year. A New Year’s hangover would follow as consumers balk at higher prices and businesses stop ordering because their warehouses are stuffed. With interest rates set to go up next week and again in December, the tightening could make the impact of the spending slowdown worse. That's when the impact of the trade fight will be felt, Justin Lahart writes.

Calculating the impact of literally anything is a mug's game, but a rise in inventories always precedes recessions.

Then again, maybe it's housing inventories that are important, not consumer goods inventories.


EWJ has been crazy exciting the past few days.

And the weekly chart looks interesting:

That, my pretties, is a consolidation over time. MACD is now back to neutral and triggered upward. Price is back above the weekly EMA(10) and weekly Bollinger mean, and is presently breaking thru the weekly SMA(50).

GDX update, uni update

Yes, there really are girls at university who sound like a walking, talking tumblr post.

An annoying girl in my cities tutorial kept talking about how she was aware of her privilege.

She damn well should be aware, because the only reason she's in university is because her mommy and daddy live in a million dollar home in the 905, and continually voted conservative to drive the working class out of university with high tuitions.

I don't see her using her privilege to do anything whatsoever for the betterment of society, though, because all she knows how to do in 3rd year is blather her own personal opinions.

I'm not a Jordan Peterson worshipper, but he is totally right about the state of social science at university. The problem isn't leftie profs, though: the problem is that the university is full of entitled children of the rich who think they deserve a Ph.D. without doing the work. Meritocracy only existed at university as a way of weeding out the poors; with tuition at $7500/y., it's back to the old 19th century French model of the leisure class being given candy for writing bullshit.

Until the 905 mommies and daddies accept that they've parented their children badly and they should be punished with downward mobility, nobody will allow these profs to instil proper rational thinking and work effort into these brats. And so the collapse of western intellectualism will continue.

As an aside, my most Marxist prof at Mac (and yes, he really used to be a Marxist) also gave us the heaviest workload by far. And his final exam was a brutal 3 hours of constant writing. So no, it's not cultural Marxism that's the problem: it's letting kids go thru undergrad and grad without ever learning argument, rational thinking, standards of evidence, or empirics.

Anyway, GDX's chart is interesting:

A positive break upward through the EMA(10), a heavily oversold MACD and RSI, and RSI and MACD divergence over the past month all pile together to make this chart constructive, at least in the short term.

Gold has also failed to break down below $1200.

I guess someone's bailing out the Turkish banks, then?

Friday, September 14, 2018

Friday videos: Pursuit of Happiness

I forgot how good this band actually was.

What's especially interesting is that their first two albums were produced by Todd Rundgren, and this song in particular (which apparently they had written before meeting him) sounds so damn much like a Rundgren/Utopia song, it's scary.

It saddens me that despite Moe Berg's really beautiful songwriting, having Leslie Stanwick and Kris Abbott's perfect backing vocals, and leapfrogging a new band's obstacles very early on by making a very successful amateur video for their first song (before anyone thought a video could break a band), they were ultimately wrecked by singing with two godawful record labels in a row (Chrysalis, then Mercury). I just have to wonder how different their career would have been if instead they'd hooked up with Nettwerk in 1987: it worked out amazing for Sarah McLachlan, and these guys would have been an easier sell.

Thursday, September 13, 2018

OK, fine... memes.

This whole Trump Nike thing is generating so many fucking memes that I've just gotta wake my blog out of its perpetual slumber just to repost 'em:

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Like I said about gold

Dumping 500 tons of gold into the market makes the price go down:

Al-monitor - Why are Turkey's gold reserves on the rise? The article is from April, when Turkey was trying to build up a cushion against currency collapse.

Since then, their banking system has moved into collapse. In such situations, all cushions against collapse get puked into the market to buy time. Only once there are zero reserves will Turkey get either bailed out or not.

And that is why you shouldn't rely on TA and other such bullshit for gold price analysis.

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Short comment on silver

Well, silver is crashing back down to its late-2015 low.

Copper, oil and SLX are nowhere near such lows, though.

So I don't think you can read this as either a USD problem or a China slowdown problem. It's something specific to PMs.

Turkish banks puking gold into an empty book to buy another day of solvency fits the bill.

Good luck picking the bottom on this one, IKN. You should know by now to not base your opinions on TA.