Friday, February 5, 2016
Not only is it silly to think that a junior mining company or a law firm would try to find out Otto Rock's identity by googling "who is Otto Rock", but it's also silly to think that the mining company that used to have Alex Black as a CEO would have to resort to using google.
Nevertheless, I've decided to help the detectives out by posting a photograph of the real Otto Rock, below the fold. Don't click through if you don't care, there's nothing there for you to see and I'm definitely not going to do anything funny.
The photo of the real Otto Rock:
Here's your jerbs repert news:
Calculated Risk - unemployment falls to 4.9%, overall a decent report. OMG! A decent report! Buy and or sell!
New Deal Demoncrat - finally a good report for wages. And you want wages to go up, since consumption is over 50% of the US economy. And by the way, when 151k jobs are added but NILF goes up 87k, that reduces upward pressure on wages, and the people at the Fed know this because (except for Neel Kashkari) they took undergrad macroeconomics, you dumb white-ass honkie crackers.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - jobs report defies recession chatter. I really can't fucking believe that people are calling for a recession: do you not look at one fucking ounce of data? Do you not know what a leading indicator is? I can't believe people are this stupid, even coked-up hedge fund crackers, so it must just be that media idiots with journalism diplomas are just looking for a narrative to spin that explains why the US market is down A WHOPPING TEN PERCENT.
Thursday, February 4, 2016
And since December, the price of gold continues to rise, on the back of continued US dollar strength....
Uh, no wait. What I meant to say was: the price of gold continues to rise, as fear spreads of global deflation....
The price of gold continues to rise on the back of economic collapse in China, a source of 25% of global demand for gold....
The price of gold continues to rise as the United States enters a monetary tightening cycle....
No wait, I got it now! This one works! The price of gold continues to rise, buoyed by a price collapse across the entire commodity complex....
Fuck I dunno. Where's Reuters' Headline Manatee when you need him?
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
So ISM non-manufacturing came in light, exactly the same as it did in the last two winters.
And now the US dollar has finally conclusively ended its bull run for the next while.
Tell me what next reason we can all dream up for puking US stocks.
Some stuff before the opening pantypiddle in US stocks:
Bonddad - another sign the US industrial recession is bottoming. With a lot of Fred charts.
Olivier Blanchard - are US stocks overvalued? Read what he says:
the deviations of the P/E from its historical average are in fact quite modest. But suppose that we see them as significant, that we believe they indicate the expected return on stocks is unusually low relative to history. Is it low with respect to the expected return on other assets? A central aspect of the crisis has been the decrease in the interest rate on bonds, short and long. According to the yield curve, interest rates are expected to remain quite low for the foreseeable future. The expected return on stocks may be lower than it used to be, but so is the expected return on bonds.Like I've constantly fucking said: there is one heck of a lot of ownership of UST10s yielding 1.88%. Why would you do this when you can own GE yielding 3.24%? Or how about AT&T yielding 5.32%? Or even McDonalds yielding 2.87%? Stocks, when viewed as yield instruments, are cheap relative to bonds, and a screaming deal if you have the slightest fucking clue about what a leading indicator of recession is. But now, don't listen to Olivier Blanchard, listen to Kyle Bass.
Money and Banking - an interview with Narayana Kocherlakota. Unfortunately he's not all that bright, since he calls for significantly less regulatory oversight for global finance, which will only mean yet more money drawn out of the productive economy by the ruling kleptocrats and buried in tax-haven accounts in USTs.
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
Busy studying for midterms, or at least that's what I'm telling myself.
Here's some news:
FT Alphaville - the unstoppable tide of Japan yield seekers. Negative rates in Japan have a transmission mechanism to the rest of the world. Now tell me again why you'd rather hold UST10s at 2% when you can buy GE and get 3%?
Lowry Interpreter - another perspective on China and debt. Michael Pettis has been getting a lot of ink recently, despite his opinion having been worthless to guide your investment dollars over the past 5 years.
Bloomberg - this is why you don't try to short the yuan. China attacked the yuan shorts with military zest a couple weeks ago. So anyone still actively shorting yuan at this point, thinking it's an easy stroll into the history books alongside Soros' breaking of the pound, is a clueless idiot who may just be manifesting malignant narcissism due to an extreme coke addiction. Personally, if I had been dumb enough to give these clowns my money to manage, I'd withdraw it all this instant.
WSJ paywalled - Kyle Bass has gone short the yuan with every penny
WaPo - Bernie Sanders and "democratic socialism". It's only "socialist" in the nutbar USA; here in Canada, we call it "mainstream economics".
And by the way, I'm sure Donald Trump is just putting on an act. He always wanted to be an actor, and this is his crowning role: playing a nutty right-wing populist who destroys the Republican elite.
Friday, January 29, 2016
The crackhead trade is now gone with Kuroda's negative rates, the oil trade is gone with news of Saudi Arabia talking to Iran about production costs, and thus correlation will start uncorrelating. All we need now is for word-salad doomer newsletter writers to prepare another narrative for when $SPX sails thru 2000.
I'm sure whatever they dream up, they'll remind us they were right all along. Just don't look at last year's model portfolio return.
With that, here's some news:
New Deal Demoncrat - Q4 GDP positives. Proprietors' income and median wages both increased.
Calculated Risk - Q4 GDP investment. And thus we see there can't be a recession coming because residential investment leads.
Tim Duy - FOMC recap. His prediction as to what data will bring a tightening in March, and which will make the Fed hold off. I guess the decision gets a little easier if oil stops dropping and the USD stops appreciating.
Andrew Batson - is China's slowdown really so hard to understand? His take:
It’s not like it’s a secret. From about 2003 to about 2010 China had the biggest construction boom of modern times and probably in all of human history. Then in 2011-12 the construction boom ended. That’s it. Really, that’s all you need to know.The end.