Friday, March 16, 2018
Two articles on how screwed the US is right now:
Calculated Risk - Larry Kudlow is usually wrong. The guy completely screwed the pooch on the US housing bubble. Read how.
Bonddad - Real M1 and M2 growth lowest since 2010. Hello imminent recession! Especially with another Trump clown in charge of the Fed.
In honour of the UK's National Child Sexual Exploitation Awareness Day, here's Gary Glitter's "Do You Wanna Touch Me":
And what's funny is, this isn't even remotely the most inappropriate thing I've ever posted on my blog.
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Monday, March 12, 2018
Friday, March 9, 2018
And you don't see anyone cool in the entire world covering songs by fucking Kiss, do you? But Joy Division, everyone covers them:
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
Monday, March 5, 2018
Three from NDD:
New Deal Demoncrat - is the secular trend changing? I'd point out that the last time bond yields and stock prices both went up together, the US market was a completely different animal, with much more manufacturing, much less services, and a completely different demographics.
New Deal Demoncrat - significant deterioration in M1 & M2. Bears watching, because money supply is a no-bullshit indicator. Then again, so much American money is used overseas that it might actually signify something else, depending on whether or not the Fed follows domestic M1 & M2 or worldwide M1 & M2.
New Deal Demoncrat - the march of demographics and the 2018 midterms. Really interesting take on US voter demographics, with some interesting ideas like how people actually don't generally change their political stripe as they age.
BI - Mueller's leaked hit list shows he's targeting Trump like a criminal enterprise.
Ha ha, bye Trump.
Remember, PDAC is almost over.
Every year, all mining stocks collapse right after (or sometimes during, as in you're going down the Convention Centre escalator Friday morning and you check your stocks and go "holy shit, why am I here?") PDAC.
You have been warned.
Friday, March 2, 2018
The Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - trade war.
Follow the links for more detailed commentary.
But this bit:
Needless to say, markets hate this idea, because it’s dumb, and the Dow Jones immediately vomited up 500 points as the impromptu declaration was made in front of an audience of steel CEOs.is probably the part that the press should have been telling you, but which they haven't.
Thus, fear bullshit.
Aw, good ol' Trump:
BI - Trump: "trade wars are good!!!!1"
For the record:
a) 25% on steel and aluminium are no big deal.
b) Sure, there is far more American manufacturing using steel and aluminium as inputs, and thus the tariffs are a net negative for the US economy.
c) Maybe Trump knows this, but really primary metals tariffs are just an indication that the primary industries are bribing Trump more than secondary manufacturers are.
d) Doesn't matter anyway, because manufacturing is a piddling small part of the US economy.
e) And US-listed manufacturers whose plants are in other countries won't see the tariff.
f) But yeah, it indicates Trump is willing to do other stupid things in the future.
g) I'm still waiting for someone in the press to point out whether or not Trump has the power to pass this without Congress. I doubt you can get a majority in the House or Senate to go along with this.
h) Though it'll be interesting to see which side the Democrats from steel districts are on. Trade wars are always popular in the Rust Belt.
i) In any case, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out at the international level. The US doesn't technically have the power to impose these tariffs under WTO, though of course the US does have the power to say "fuck you bozos".
j) Off to do more homework now. Wondering if we see $SPX 2600 again.