Friday, August 22, 2014
Instead of wasting your valuable time reading yet more obsessive-compulsive blather on that thoroughly discredited and proven-worthless steaming pile of shit known as the Shiller CAPE, how about reading some real news and analysis?
I mean I don't waste my own fucking time trying to disprove TimeCube, so why does Ritholtz think he has to disprove Shiller CAPE's usefulness? Quit wasting your fucking time.
Calculated Risk - miles driven increased in May. It was down for so long, it's interesting to see it moving back up. If the miles trend has reestablished itself, it'll be interesting to see if US gasoline prices rise as well - or if we instead see that funny secular commodity bear market behaviour.
New Deal Demoncrat - retail sales per capita. Dude, just wait to see what happens with gasoline and wages before you call this bull half-over.
FT Alphaville - on wages and inflation. Cardiff Garcia doesn't seem to buy the "secular stagnation" hype either.
The Krugginator - Charles Plosser is a clueless right-wing doomer cunt. Quote, with links:
The Times article singles out for special mention Charles Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed, who is, indeed, warning about inflation risks. But you should know that he warned about the danger of rising inflation in 2008. He warned about it in 2009. He did the same in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. He was wrong each time, but, undaunted, he’s now doing it again.Man, that's what's great about professors. Nobody does merciless, withering mockery of the ignorant better than a prof.
By the way, here's a word of wisdom to those of you who like to mock others in print: there is no better mockery than that which simply uses your target's own words. Especially from a legal perspective.
Price Action Blab - where the heck are the horizontal consolidations? He thinks there's a problem with how there are so many BTFD Vs in the post-2009 S&P chart. But why should there be a problem? The US is still recovering from a panic-selling liquidity crisis in 2008-9. In contrast, 1995-6 occurred in an already mature bull market and (from what I remember) involved a lot of sector rotation as interest rates were brought back up from the 1991-2 recession. 2003-5 was in a bear market rally; there might have been some rotation there too, as the only sectors I can find that reliably did well coming out of 2005 were miners and oil. Basically, quit trying to draw false equivalencies: this time is always different. Just buy the damn SPY and quit piddling your pink panties.
Ritholtz - get ready for a Chinese rally. Yeah, or maybe not. A downward channel breakout can just be a widening of the downward channel's top bound, buddy: see 2005 on your chart. In any case, Barry, why the fuck are you looking at the Shanghai exchange's chart? Can you buy it? No you can't buy it. Look at a sack of Whitey-segregated garbage that the hedge fund clowns buy, like FXI, and tell me where the breakout is there. And by the way, has BAML never fucking figured out how to generate a log-y chart? Are they retarded or something?
Mineweb - rural Indian gold demand DISAPPEARING. All-caps to make the goldbugs read the story. But an interesting datapoint for me in this is that "about 7% to 8% of rural household savings goes into gold buying in India": that, my friends, is an asset allocation strategy, unconscious or not; and the big question is thus whether that rate can decrease over (what's hopefully still going to be) ten or twenty years of real wealth growth in India. I think that a change in the gold allocation rate is something that takes generations, not just years.
WaPo - why surveillance companies hate the iPhone. Crap... so does this mean that if I want proper datasec, then my next phone has to be an Apple product?
Screw FXI, which doesn't measure anything in reality anyway, and screw EEM which god knows what the fuck are its constituents anymore.
Overbought by Bollingers, overbought by RSI.
Sure, it's a breakout of horizontal resistance, if you look at it that way. But turn it sideways a bit, and it's at the top of its 3-year upward-sloping channel.
I wouldn't buy it.
Here's the Shanghai:
Wow! That really sucks in comparison.
OK, maybe that's a triple bottom that played out over the past 2 years. That might actually be very bullish and override the overboughtness of the chart above.
Then again, maybe the $SSEC is reality, and the China ETFs are bullshit precisely because that's all the hedge fund clowns ever buy. So you get a "China stocks perform badly unless they're the ones the White suckers have bought" setup, which I wouldn't want to be part of.
Here's the Nifty:
Sure advanced hard on the Modi win, didn't it?
But do you remember what happened in Japan after Abe won? The Japanese ETF advanced by a third, then spent the past year doing nothing.
At some point, data has to take over. According to Shaoul, the Japanese data has been finally taking over, and yet EWJ is still doing nothing.Meanwhile, India's running into a monsoon - as well as a long period of structural adjustment under Modi if they're lucky.
So I suddenly remembered that there's a yearly goldbug exhibit thing in Toronto in September, and wouldn't it be nice to go?
Cambridge House - Canadian Investor Conference. Wait, what? You changed the name?
The Canadian Investor Conference Toronto, previously the Toronto Resource Investment Conference will be held at the Sheraton Toronto Centre Hotel. Three industries will come together for this 2-day event to cover RESOURCE, TECHNOLOGY and DIVERSIFIED investment opportunities. Companies in Mineral Exploration, Oil & Gas, LNG, Agriculture, Life Sciences, Energy Metals, Technology and Real Estate will exhibit. Top industry analysts, newsletter writers, c-suite executives, hedge fund managers, trends forecasters and finance celebrities will cover speculative and direct investments and strategies, economic outlook and macro trends.
Wait, what? Gas? Agriculture? Technology and Real Estate?
What happened to gold?
Pre-register online for free admission or pay $20 at the door.
Pay $20 at the door?!?
Wow. Looks like there's no more shitty gold juniors who want to lay out a few thousand dollars on an exhibit in Toronto. Looks like that income stream is long gone, so now Cambridge House has to "diversify" into the other shitty scam stocks of the V and the X.
Even the speaker list is crappy.
OK, so there's Kaiser. And I've seen Danielle Park hitting these things over a past couple years. Calandra and GATA are no surprise. Westie has stayed away from Toronto (or not been offered a spot) these past couple years but now he's back.
But who are all these other clowns on the speaker list?
And there's no Cookie, no Jojo, no Mickey Fulp.
Hell, there's not even a bullion dealer on the exhibitor list. How am I supposed to buy gold and silver coins there?
That looks pretty darn bullish for the junior gold scene right there.
Michael Shaoul was on Bloomberg talking about when the Fed might raise rates:
Bloomie - Michael Shaoul interview.
As a reminder, Shaoul has been going on for months about how he thinks the data is over-estimating slack, and the US may see inflation pick up strongly before the Fed's targeted first rate rise.
The old guy with the gravelly voice (forget his name, I used to listen to his Bloomie podcasts) facetiously asks "what would happen if the Fed raised rates sooner than expected, just to add a bit of discipline to the market?", and Shaoul replies with a facetious answer.
And there he proves that while he's generally whip-smart, Shaoul doesn't have a clue in one vital area.
Krugman likes to remind us that the EZ tried to raise rates early in the post-2008 recovery, and that pushed them right back into depression.
For all I've been putting the boots to the "secular stagnation" thesis recently, I do agree with the Kruggatolah that Yellen probably is wary of being too early in raising rates, because the last thing you want to do is sabotage a six-year recovery that's only been looking hopeful for the past year.
And hey, if the secular stagnation theory is right, then maybe a too-early rate raise will push the US back into depression.
And in any case, OMG WTF?!? Shaoul is warning against wage inflation, and yet (speaking as a member of the oppressed working class) we do really need some wage inflation right about now. How the fuck is wage inflation a bad thing?
Oh, sure it's a bad thing for the ruling kleptocrats. But like I've been saying, maybe the "secular stagnation" thing is only an artefact of the rentier class' victory over the proletariat, and this is exactly what the endgame should look like when you have thirty years of workers' wage stagnation and Piketty's continued concentration of capital among the rentier class.
There's too many people trying to collect rents, and not enough people able to pay any more rents.
I've had my suspicions for a few months that Shaoul was a closet Reaganite, and this kinda confirms it.
He's still way damn smarter than any other market commentator out there, as far as understanding market cycles, so I'll keep reading him. But from now on I'll stick to listening to his interpretation of data, and from now on I'll ignore his opinions of what the Fed "should" do.
I mean, if he really truly knew what the Fed "should" do, he'd be working there, right?
I really do think he needs to get out of his shell and start reading some of the recent higher-level commentary on the peculiar nature of the US economy.
Also, saying the US market needs "discipline" is truly facetious and fucking pig-ignorant.
SPY, for all its recent excitement, is still only up about 30% since 2007.
And the 2007 equity top was not a bubble top.
A market that's still way below the long-term trend, trading at a vaguely reasonable P/E, does not need "disciplining". If you believe it does, then you probably also believe the old 19th-century commandment that a father should beat his wife and kids regularly, even when they do no wrong, just to remind them who's in charge.
It's great to have some fun once in a while, and mocking Barry Ritholtz for his doubting Mila Kunis is certainly fun.
It's like I said to someone: every one of these big-shot Wall Street fatties needs to be taken down a few pegs once in a while. Otherwise we might start believing the crap they're feeding us.
Anyway, here's the news:
Wealth of Common Sense - all-time highs in the stock market are perfectly normal. That's how you know the market is in a secular bull: it goes up. Stick that in your pipe, all you doomer TAs who... um... already quit reading my blog years ago because I insulted the fuck out of you.
BI - oil prices might deliver a shot in the arm to the US economy. I guess per Jim Rogers, you should expect a secular commodity bear, right? And that alone can really drive earnings & spending growth in a developed economy.
Gallup - investors have no clue about stock market's recent gains. Almost 80% of retail right now, if given $10,000, would invest it in cash or CDs. Less than 1 in 10 even know that the market was up 30% last year. How is this even remotely bearish for the market? My god, retail is still buying MREs and ammo!
Ambrose Evans Pitcherplant - Nobel economists say policy blunders have pushed Europe into a depression. Don't expect Europe to respond constructively, by the way: it's run by the Germans, and Germans are as pig-headed a people as you'll ever find. I'm only amazed that the "socialist superstate" of the ECU is still fixated on discredited right-wing Reaganite financial doctrine.
I'm going through my blog stats this morning to spy on my own readership, as the most recent couple posts testify.
And guess what?
That is so totes amazeballs.
And today, Wall Street Fatty tweets this:
WSJ paywalled - interest rate fears trample gold.
Gold is being trampled this week by the coming options expiry. It happened back in late May too. We'll see what happens after next week.
Gold might also be getting trampled by fears of a poor monsoon harvest in India. That's the country that buys a big chunk of world gold production, and we're getting bad news about the coming harvest - though Indians do tend to whine and worry about the monsoon quite a lot.
Also, gold might look bad due to worries that the corrupt Chinese kleptocrat class won't be buying as much gold now that the anti-corruption campaign has everyone looking over their shoulders. Hey, maybe that's pure speculation, but I've heard Toronto condo prices are also dropping right now. It'd be interesting to talk to someone at the downtown Scotia Macotta and ask if they've seen fewer Chinese people at the bullion desk recently.
If you want to make the argument that US interest rates have anything whatsoever to do with gold supply and demand, or that supply and demand do nothing to determine the gold price, then I'd be very interested in hearing it.
But the fact is that fat white Americans don't buy gold. They certainly don't buy it based on interest rate movements.
And if the gold price had nothing to do with supply and demand, then the big ETF liquidation a couple years ago would never have made the gold price drop through $1500, right?
Anyway, if I wasn't a lazy-ass I'd go look through Tatyana Shumsky and Ira Iosebashvili's past articles on gold.
I mean, it seems there's always a flood of bearish gold news during the week before OpEx, and I darn well betcha it's the same few people in the press who file the articles. So, for example, we'll probably see an article before Monday on GS and Citi's bearish gold price targets. Gotta get everyone out by Tuesday, right?
You tweeted one of my posts back in December 2013, the one where I agreed with you about something without even adding anything new, and now this morning you came back* and visited the post again.
And you saw there was a link to this article:
Greatest Blog in the World - Mila Kunis beats all hedge funds in 2013.
What I don't understand is why you didn't link to that for all the world to see. I mean, everyone (including you) made fun of Mila Kunis for putting her money in stocks, and yet at end-2013 her strategy outperformed all hedge funds including Mister Hoity-Toity Can-Do-No-Wrong Paul Tudor Jones himself.
Doesn't that fit in with your narrative? The average person (not that Mila Kunis is average at all!) can just buy SPY and fuck off for 10 years, and she'll still outperform nearly every fat jackass on Wall Street.
I thought you agreed with that. Or is that Josh? I keep mixing the two of you up: one of you says just put your money in SPY and walk away, the other one piddles his little pink panties whenever the junk bond ETF drops 3%.
Anyway, since Barry loves the article so much, Imma be
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Let's check the miner charts.
Hanging on to horizontal support but still not broken. I don't care about the SMA(50) crossover, it's bullshit.
Hanging on to horizontal support too but still not broken either.
The problem is, OpEx is days away. Gold and the miners got chokeslammed on the May OpEx too, and you can see in these charts that it turned out to be a giftwrapped buy opportunity.
We still have a few days for the OpEx games to play out. I don't know why any whiteys would be short gold with the Ukraine/Gaza/Iraq stuff going on, during gold's strongest season, so I don't expect a big slam, but crap can still happen.
The million-dollar question is, will the Indians be driving gold back up in September? You've still got the monsoon harvest and Diwali to look forward to.
IKN has his own "usual suspects" that he likes to keep an eye on, and I have Silvercorp.
Kun Huang, the researcher who got tossed into a Chinese prison after instigation by Silvercorp, is now suing them for defamation, false imprisonment and corruption of officials:
Globe and Mail - Canadian sues Silvercorp for false imprisonment in China. Quote:
Now, in a lawsuit filed Tuesday in the Supreme Court of British Columbia, Mr. Huang claims that Silvercorp masterminded his detention as a reprisal for his research, whose publication prompted a steep decline in the company’s share price.
Silvercorp, his court filing claims, effectively enlisted the local Chinese police as its “agent,” giving them money, encouragement and guidance “to falsely imprison and then later knowingly bring baseless criminal charges against Mr. Huang.”
I have no clue about how these sorts of cases work, but I'd be worried the court may simply accept the detention as legal under Chinese law (such as it is) and dismiss the case. Does he have to first prove the corruption before the imprisonment can be argued to be "false"?
Anyway, the Vancouver Sun has a much better story, with video too:
Vancouver Sun - Vancouver stock researcher sues BC mining firm. Quote:
A Canadian researcher who was jailed for two-and-a-half years in China for a crime he says did not happen sued a Vancouver-based mining company in B.C. Supreme Court this week for defamation, false imprisonment and corruption of foreign officials in relation to his incarceration.
Kun Huang, a 37-year-old University of B.C. graduate, was released from prison last month, then deported home to Vancouver, where he filed a claim that reads like a spy thriller. He alleges that Silvercorp Metals used its influence on public officials in China as well as financial support to punish him in retaliation for a report he contributed to that caused Silvercorp’s shares to plummet.
“As a result of Silvercorp’s intentional wrongdoing and its utilization of the (local police) as its agent, Mr. Huang ... was subjected to years of false imprisonment with predictable deleterious effects on his mental and physical health,” states the claim.
Anyway, I'm hoping that he wins and fucks Silvercorp into the ground for millions in damages.
(PS yay! This is post #4000!)
Too bad he's got trouble finding decent staff who can do proper journalism instead of just caps-lock doomery, cos Blodget gets it:
BI - the economy stinks because owners are greedier than ever before.
By the way, here's a question for Krugman:
Isn't this what secular stagnation looks like?
Seriously: on the one hand you have the triumph of Volcker's shock doctrine keeping forward interest rate expectations artificially low. On the other hand, you've had 35 years of anti-union anti-working-class warfare led by the Republican Party, keeping real wage growth negative for decades.
Toss in Piketty's continued concentration of capital among the people least likely to spend it.
Don't you think that these, alone, might be entirely responsible for the datapoints that you're identifying as "secular stagnation"?
Kruggers might think he's such a radical pinko because he still advocates Keynesian economics, but the truth is his narrative is still entirely supportive of the existing plutocratic power structure and still participates in all its myths and fabrications.